Why Donald Trump Is Gaining Momentum Against Biden In Polls: RCP's Tom Bevan Weighs In

6 months ago

Tom Bevan, Co-Founder and President of Real Clear Politics, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss a New York Times poll showing President Biden is behind in battleground states.

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Transcript

00:00 As we sit here right now, we are less than six months away from the 2024 presidential election,

00:06 and an alarming new poll for President Biden came out just a few days ago. A New York Times Siena

00:11 poll shows former President Trump beating President Biden in five out of six battleground states.

00:16 What are your main takeaways from this poll?

00:18 Well, obviously, I mean, this is where the election is going to be decided. There are,

00:23 I call them the big seven. But you could you can say there are six if you if you want to exclude

00:30 North Carolina. But look, this is very similar to the New York Times is finding six months ago,

00:36 they did a similar poll in November. And despite the fact that Trump's been on trial,

00:42 and Biden had a good State of the Union and has been hitting the campaign trail,

00:45 these numbers really haven't improved for Joe Biden. It's the same story. Inflation is really,

00:51 really hurting folks in these battleground states. And when you dig into the numbers,

00:56 the problem for Biden is Trump is doing really, really well among young voters,

01:01 and among Hispanics and black voters. And those are three really, really important pieces of

01:06 Biden's coalition. And they are not on board with him now. He's got six months to win them back,

01:11 but he certainly has a lot of work to do. I want to break down why former President

01:16 Donald Trump is gaining momentum when it comes to these demographics.

01:20 This poll found that President Trump and President Biden are essentially tied when it comes to voters

01:25 under 30 and Hispanic voters. And the former president also has over 20% of support of black

01:31 voters. So why is Trump seeing more success in these demographics, more so than he saw even in

01:36 2020? I mean, I think it is it's it's more about class than than identity. Right? I mean, typically,

01:46 you know, the economy is by far the number one issue, inflation in particular, and it's hurting

01:52 working class people of all colors, of all shapes and sizes. And and, you know, Biden is now the

01:57 incumbent and people he's had four years to do the job. People are not satisfied with despite the

02:03 fact and this is part of the problem, right? The administration continues to tout the good numbers

02:08 on, for example, the unemployment rate or the stock market. And these are in many ways,

02:13 abstractions to people. While it is true, those are good numbers. And, you know, Biden likes to

02:18 say, well, we have a really robust economy. The problem is, you know, for for people who are

02:23 living in their everyday lives, it's the price of a gallon of gas or a gallon of milk or what

02:26 their mortgage rate is or what their interest rate on their credit cards are. And so by those metrics,

02:31 people are really upset with Biden. They don't feel like he's done a good job. And they're

02:36 looking back at Trump with some nostalgia and saying, look, things were better under Trump.

02:41 And and I'm sure they're forgetting about all of the, you know, the baggage that came with

02:46 Donald Trump. And Joe Biden is certainly the Biden campaign's job is to remind them of that and try

02:52 and make this a binary choice between the two and hope that enough people would rather stick with

02:57 Biden than go back with Trump. But right now, people are looking rather fondly about the

03:02 economy under Donald Trump.

Why Donald Trump Is Gaining Momentum Against Biden In Polls: RCP's Tom Bevan Weighs In

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