Ketegangan Geopolitik, Antisipasi dan Cara MUFG Jakarta Menjaga Market di Indonesia
Eskalasi geopolitik telah menjadi kabar yang tidak sedap bagi seluruh dunia, khususnya pasar modal dan komoditas nasional dan internasional. Kinerja pasar modal di banyak negara bahkan ikut tergerus akibat sentimen perang tersebut.
IHSG pada beberapa pekan terakhir kerap mengalami koreksi, tidak terkecuali wall street yang kinerjanya fluktuatif, serta bursa asia yang ikut tertekan dengan meningkatnya eskalasi timur tengah.
Kondisi ini ditengarai akibat investor memilih untuk memborong aset safe-haven yang didorong oleh meningkatnya risiko geopolitik di Timur Tengah.
IHSG pada beberapa pekan terakhir kerap mengalami koreksi, tidak terkecuali wall street yang kinerjanya fluktuatif, serta bursa asia yang ikut tertekan dengan meningkatnya eskalasi timur tengah.
Kondisi ini ditengarai akibat investor memilih untuk memborong aset safe-haven yang didorong oleh meningkatnya risiko geopolitik di Timur Tengah.
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TVTranscript
00:00 Every time there is a geopolitical conflict, the chain of command is surely disturbed.
00:04 The longer the chain of command is disturbed, the stronger the pressure.
00:08 So maybe we can see now, the timing, how long it will take.
00:12 Well, because of that, what needs to be done when we want to run to the obligation
00:17 is to look at the risk profile of the country.
00:20 Hello, fellow investors, how are you?
00:27 My name is Wiki Adrian, meeting you again at Vincast, your home of finance and investment.
00:31 Talking about investment, the art is quite dynamic.
00:37 Sometimes nervous, sometimes happy, sometimes, what else? Sometimes anxious.
00:42 One thing that can make you anxious is related to geopolitical escalation.
00:47 Because it seems to make your investment portfolio quite fluctuating lately.
00:53 Speaking of geopolitical escalation, it has become a bad news for the whole world.
00:57 Especially for the capital market, national and international commodities.
01:03 The capital market energy in many countries is also stagnant due to the war sentiment.
01:08 Is it between Israel and Hamas, Israel and Iran, Russia and Ukraine.
01:16 And the IHSG also experienced a correction in the last few weeks, except Wall Street.
01:23 The operation is quite fluctuating and the stock market is also under pressure.
01:28 This condition is of course in the south, because investors prefer to buy safe haven assets
01:34 driven by the increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
01:38 With the increase in global escalation, how is it?
01:42 Actually, the way from MUFG to the market today.
01:47 To answer it in FinCash, this time the head of treasury of MUFG Bank Jakarta Branch is present.
01:53 Mrs. Meriska, how are you?
01:55 Mrs. Meriska, a round of applause for Mrs. Meriska.
01:58 - How are you? - I'm fine, sir.
02:01 How are you? Are you nervous to see the geopolitics today, the dynamics, the fluctuations?
02:06 I happen to be in the treasury, so my job is to monitor it every day.
02:10 There is no volatility, but I don't have a job.
02:13 Okay, because this is one thing that is normal, it becomes a concern of all parties.
02:18 Especially when talking about commodities.
02:20 Lately, when talking about the geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran,
02:27 oil is also one of the things that is also visible.
02:33 What happens globally,
02:40 related to recession and inflation for a number of countries around the world,
02:43 as has happened in Russia and Ukraine,
02:47 the potential or possibility ahead from the point of view of Mrs. Meriska,
02:52 what is it like and what should we keep?
02:57 Or maybe we have to take care of it.
02:59 Okay, so the question is already difficult.
03:03 The point is, every time there is a geopolitical conflict,
03:08 the supply chain is definitely disturbed.
03:12 When the supply chain is disturbed, there will be an imbalance between demand and supply.
03:17 It means that it will definitely run to inflation.
03:20 So, the geopolitical conflict will definitely cause pressure on inflation.
03:27 If we look at the situation in Russia and Ukraine,
03:32 we have to look at the conditions.
03:34 At the time of Russia and Ukraine, it was not only Russia and Ukraine that caused it,
03:40 but we just got out of the COVID pandemic.
03:42 During the COVID pandemic, almost all countries
03:47 implemented monetary policy that was very loose.
03:53 Printing money, monetary policy, liquidity was flooded.
03:59 So, the inflation has increased.
04:01 When the inflation rises, Russia and Ukraine will be affected.
04:05 So, the effect of inflation is quite massive.
04:09 -It's double. -Yes, it's double.
04:12 Meanwhile, since then, countries around the world, including Indonesia,
04:19 have taken many steps to ensure that inflation is maintained.
04:25 The supply has increased, many policies have been implemented.
04:30 So, it seems that the world already knows how to maintain it a little.
04:36 Maybe we can see the timing now.
04:39 If it can be controlled quickly, it can be completed quickly,
04:43 but the effect of inflation will not be as big as we see from 2021 to 2023.
04:49 Moreover, yesterday, a ship in the Suez Canal was attacked by a group of people
04:58 who then denounced the solidarity with Hamas or maybe Palestine.
05:04 This is also a step of solidarity,
05:07 maybe it can be seen from the angle or point of view,
05:10 but it also disturbs the global supply chain and also affects inflation.
05:16 Because if we look at what happened in the Suez Canal,
05:20 what happened was that it was disturbed, the activity dropped by 50%.
05:26 So, the supply chain was definitely disturbed.
05:28 And the logistical costs also increased.
05:30 -We have to find another way. -Right, find another way.
05:33 Find another way, the demand and supply are disturbed.
05:35 The point is, we have learned from the COVID-19.
05:41 At that time, China fell.
05:46 China was the one who was disturbed by the chain.
05:49 -I felt the impact was quite big. -Right.
05:53 If we talk about the commodity sector,
05:57 the sector that was most affected by the tension in the Middle East was the first.
06:01 What do you think about the finance sector, Mariska?
06:05 If we look at it, everyone knows that in the Middle East, oil is produced.
06:11 -So, it's definitely the sector that was affected. -Because of the oil and energy sector.
06:14 Yes, the energy sector was affected first.
06:17 Then later, if the energy sector is disturbed, the oil price will rise,
06:20 and the BBM price will go down.
06:25 When the BBM price goes up, the logistics sector will be affected,
06:27 and the transportation sector will be affected.
06:29 If the transportation sector is affected, the impact will be wide.
06:33 So, the first sector that is affected is energy.
06:37 -Then the other sectors will be affected. -The one affiliated with the energy sector.
06:43 Unfortunately, when we talk about oil,
06:45 -most of the sectors are affiliated. -Right, because they all use energy.
06:49 Talking about the historical habits of investors,
06:54 when there is a geopolitical conflict,
06:57 they usually run to safe haven.
07:00 So, gold was favored.
07:02 Or maybe the investment instruments that are not much in return,
07:05 but at least it's safe.
07:07 The obligation is being considered as one of the safest investment instruments.
07:12 Do you see these two investment instruments,
07:17 or maybe you see other investment instruments that are favored,
07:21 and the projection or point of view
07:25 related to investment instruments that are being considered as one of the safe haven,
07:31 how do you see it going forward?
07:33 And what are the recommendations?
07:35 I'm not afraid to give recommendations.
07:37 -Let's talk about the facts first. -Okay.
07:39 -Let's talk about the facts first. -Fair enough.
07:41 So, if we see, usually,
07:46 if there is an uncertainty, people will run to safety.
07:49 -Right? -Yeah.
07:51 Nature, human being.
07:53 If there is uncertainty, we look for safety.
07:55 And usually, what is considered as one of the safe haven, as you said,
07:59 is gold.
08:01 Why? Because gold is universal.
08:03 The intrinsic value is universal.
08:05 And it's quite resistant to inflation, to global conflict.
08:09 That's why it's a safe haven.
08:15 And if we look at the history,
08:17 or if we look back,
08:19 when there is a global conflict,
08:21 usually, the one that does a good job is gold.
08:23 So, the tendency is still there and will continue.
08:27 When there is a conflict,
08:29 usually gold is one of the choices.
08:31 So, investors who hold gold,
08:33 if there is a conflict, they're happy, right?
08:35 -Happy, of course. -Because it's going up.
08:37 -When it's time to sell. -But, the point is,
08:39 when we look at gold,
08:41 when there is a conflict,
08:43 usually, it does a good job.
08:45 But after that, it's quite stable.
08:47 If we move to obligation,
08:49 obligation is an issue.
08:53 Or it's issued by a country.
08:57 So, it will depend on the condition of the country.
09:05 While the condition of the country
09:07 will be affected by the economic condition.
09:11 Economic condition, global economic condition.
09:13 There is no country that exists by itself.
09:15 So, if we say Indonesia's obligation,
09:18 will it be affected by global economy?
09:22 Of course.
09:24 Because of that, what we need to do
09:26 when we want to run to obligation,
09:29 is to look at the risk profile of the country.
09:32 Is the country's risk profile good enough?
09:35 How is the risk in the future?
09:37 For example, Indonesia.
09:39 Is Indonesia affected?
09:41 Of course, it's affected by global economy.
09:43 But Indonesia's domestic economy is quite strong.
09:46 The development is still good.
09:48 The growth is still good.
09:50 The inflation is maintained.
09:52 So, it can be one of the choices.
09:55 Okay. But in my limited knowledge,
09:57 has Indonesia ever been in obligation
09:59 that was issued by the government?
10:01 There has never been a default, right?
10:03 Until now, there has never been a default.
10:05 Don't let it be.
10:07 We knock on wood first.
10:09 Don't let it be default.
10:11 Yes, yes.
10:12 It means that this can be one of the instruments of investment
10:15 that we mentioned about safe haven.
10:17 If it's safe haven, maybe not.
10:19 If it's safe haven, no.
10:20 Because it will move.
10:22 Even now, it's in a state of imbassure.
10:24 Because Indonesia is also dependent on the external.
10:28 So, if we want to be safe,
10:30 at this moment, maybe it's gold.
10:32 Okay.
10:33 But if we dare to look further into the future,
10:36 Indonesia's negative factors are not too many.
10:40 Okay. If we talk about indicators,
10:42 before we decide to switch to obligation,
10:47 the economic condition, inflation, economic growth, etc.
10:53 It should be considered before investors take obligation, right?
10:57 It should.
10:58 If so, it must be when we take obligation,
11:01 what must be seen is the profile of the investor.
11:05 Okay.
11:06 First, one.
11:07 Then, the good investor profile,
11:09 for example, this is a good investment,
11:12 as I said, it's safe, everything is safe.
11:15 But there are global conditions that also affect.
11:20 So, we have to be careful.
11:21 So, the risk must be understood by every investor who wants to invest.
11:26 Can Indonesia stand on its own? No.
11:28 It will be disturbed by the global situation.
11:31 Okay. So, diversified portfolio investment is an important factor, right?
11:36 At this moment.
11:38 For me, yes.
11:39 I will definitely diversify my portfolio.
11:43 Because, as they say,
11:46 in English, don't put your egg in one basket.
11:49 There is always diversification.
11:51 But of course, how much is the diversification,
11:54 it's up to each individual.
11:56 Looking for safety or looking for something a little nervous but more important.
12:00 Looking for safety, don't look for me.
12:01 I don't know, don't follow me. I'm also curious.
12:04 Don't take it, learn.
12:06 Don't just listen to me.
12:08 Okay. This is about the strategy of Indonesia to anticipate the possibility of high inflation
12:15 due to the pressure that is happening now.
12:18 From the mitigation that is done by the government so far,
12:23 is this already in line?
12:25 Or is there one thing that the government needs to consider?
12:29 Is there any from your point of view?
12:31 Actually, if we go back to the pandemic,
12:34 it was the most uncertain time.
12:39 Everyone had just experienced it once.
12:41 Not once, maybe once, but several hundred years.
12:45 But actually Indonesia is one of the countries that is considered successful
12:50 in getting through this COVID period.
12:54 If we look at it, our economy is quite good.
12:57 It's still around 5% at that time.
12:59 Then, our inflation is also maintained.
13:02 Yes, of course. But we don't go crazy.
13:05 Why is this happening?
13:09 Maybe one thing I'm concerned about is the collaboration and cooperation
13:14 from all stakeholders.
13:18 It has to be successful, right?
13:19 Yes, it has to be successful.
13:20 All ministries and all parties.
13:22 Yes, that's right. Because if we look at it, at that time, everything was moving in one direction.
13:26 Bank Indonesia, OJK, then the government, here is the finance minister,
13:32 all of them work together.
13:35 The monitoring policy is adaptive.
13:38 We see how the global condition is changed.
13:41 Then there is also, what is it called?
13:45 I forgot the exact name, but it's like a risk management team.
13:50 In each area, to check the market, what is the price, and so on.
13:56 It's called area innovation.
13:58 Yes, area innovation.
13:59 And all of it is done in a coordinated manner.
14:04 So that everything is maintained.
14:06 In my opinion, this is one of the things that must be continued.
14:11 Because this pressure is not over yet.
14:14 Especially now, the geopolitical conflict is increasing.
14:17 So, this must be done.
14:20 Because Indonesia has one uncertainty, even though it's smaller,
14:24 but it has one uncertainty that is not yet open.
14:28 The uncertainty is because it is not yet open.
14:30 That is the new government.
14:32 So, this is also one of the things that the foreign investors see when they want to enter Indonesia.
14:37 We also want to see it first.
14:39 But it should be, if we see, if we learn from everything that has been read so far,
14:46 there should be no significant political change.
14:50 Or change, not politics, policy.
14:52 A significant change in policy.
14:54 So, in my opinion, what is being done now is very good.
14:58 And how it will continue.
15:01 Why is this an important thing from the government's point of view to control inflation?
15:07 Because inflation will affect the purchasing power of the community.
15:11 Why do investors decide to invest in Indonesia?
15:14 Because the consideration of the purchasing power of the community is very high.
15:17 But when the government cannot control inflation,
15:20 the WTO will hit or maybe hit the purchasing power of the community.
15:24 It will be weak and not interesting for investment.
15:28 That's why a few days ago, there was a regional leader who got a sanction from the central government
15:34 because it was not considered to be unsuccessful in controlling inflation in the region.
15:38 Okay. What sectors in the middle of the dynamics in geopolitics?
15:44 Which sector do we have to put more concern than other sectors?
15:51 We have to be careful with these sectors. Is there any?
15:54 Yes, for sure, because we have talked about it earlier.
15:57 For sure, energy must be careful.
16:00 Energy must be careful.
16:04 We will see that there will be a little disruption or a lot of it, of course, we have to look ahead.
16:11 But there will be disruption in the oil producer.
16:17 Then energy, oil, then maybe later if this continues, logistics and transportation.
16:26 It will definitely be sectors that will be a concern in the future.
16:29 Okay. About the volatility of the currency exchange, maybe based on import, the pharmacy sector, is it not recommended?
16:38 It should be, the effect will still be long. I mean, not the immediate effect of what is now.
16:45 If now, it's more towards energy.
16:49 Okay. As one of the stakeholders in this ecosystem, or economically globally, or maybe in Indonesia itself,
16:56 MUFG Jakarta, what is the strategy to maintain good quality energy at this challenging moment?
17:07 And how MUFG itself faces the impact of global conditions on the market in Indonesia?
17:12 Okay. If we, MUFG, we will of course monitor energy consistently.
17:19 And see factors that can affect both internal and external.
17:25 One of the things that is of course our concern is this geopolitical conflict.
17:31 But why is MUFG here?
17:35 Why is MUFG in Jakarta? Of course, to support and support national economic growth.
17:40 So, our strategy for the future is still how we can transfer loans to help support national growth.
17:51 Of course, by ensuring that the quality of assets that we lend is still good.
17:58 So, there may be an increase in the payment, or what the effect will be.
18:05 But how to maintain the existing quality of assets.
18:10 So, we will not reduce our ability to lend and support national economic growth,
18:16 but maybe the assets or the quality of assets that we maintain.
18:20 The second thing, of course, at the moment, what we have to do is to do balance sheet optimization.
18:26 What is balance sheet optimization? How many assets do we have? How do we do it?
18:32 So, we get a good return for the bank itself.
18:37 Of course, if I don't work, right? If there is no return.
18:41 So, there must be a good return but still support national economic growth.
18:47 So, why are we here? As a bank, right?
18:50 Intermediate and supporting.
18:53 Okay, we have discussed what happened internationally.
18:58 Domestically, are there any challenges that this also needs a strategy from the IMFG?
19:04 Must be custom to adapt to domestic conditions.
19:07 Maybe if from the domestic itself, actually now our domestic situation is quite good.
19:16 GDP growth is still above 5%.
19:19 Inflation is maintained at 3%.
19:22 The ability to buy the people if we look at retail, sales, etc. is still good.
19:28 But now what we see is the pressure from the outside.
19:34 Foreign investors, we talked about safe haven,
19:38 Foreign investors because of too many uncertainties, they also wait to enter Indonesia.
19:45 So, now what is pressing is our exchange rate.
19:49 So, how do we see the effect so that we can also maintain it.
20:00 Because we usually work with the BI, with everyone to ensure that the exchange rate is not everywhere.
20:08 And one thing we do is, again, for our customers.
20:13 Coincidentally, we are moving in the corporate field, we are not moving in the retail field.
20:18 Our corporate, especially those who are importers, of course have difficulties at the moment.
20:24 So, how can we provide good solutions for them so that the risk is always there.
20:32 But how to mitigate and measure the risk.
20:36 Interesting, related to the sector related to importation, this will also be a market catered by MUFG itself.
20:48 Is there any reduction in allocation, financing for the sector based on import?
20:55 Because it is related to the dynamics in the global market.
20:58 Or maybe you see this as a potential to continue to allocate or maybe add funding to this sector.
21:06 Or what is the strategy?
21:08 For now, there is no change.
21:10 So, we are still in sectors that we have supported so far.
21:18 So, there is no significant change.
21:22 It seems that if you look ahead, because the quality we have or the asset quality we have is quite good.
21:29 At the moment, we see that there is no excessive risk.
21:32 So, we haven't seen that there is a need to change or even reduce.
21:39 We will still keep it.
21:42 As long as everything is measured and also see the potential for the future, why not.
21:46 Okay, as a few last questions, can you share tips with investors so that the investment is still safe?
21:55 What kind of money is appropriate to still be able to thrive in the middle of a conflict sentiment or geopolitics at the moment?
22:04 It's hard.
22:06 Looking for safety.
22:09 If I look at it like this, maybe all investments always bring risks.
22:20 Always bring risks, of course, with a guaranteed return.
22:24 One is, in my opinion, learn the risks first.
22:29 Can we see the risks?
22:33 Actually, if we learn or read, investors will know.
22:40 Look at the risk profile, look at the investment goal, and don't put your egg in one basket.
22:48 So, in my opinion, don't put your egg in one basket.
22:53 Try to see and then one that may not be in the reading, but for me it's number one.
23:01 Check your heart first.
23:03 Check your heart yourself.
23:05 How strong your heart is.
23:07 Surprised or not.
23:09 Because in the future it will be quite fluctuating.
23:12 That's right. And you have to see, if I look at it, for example, you want to save or invest for your school child.
23:19 It's still 15 years away.
23:21 If it goes up in the middle, is the heart strong?
23:25 If the heart is strong, it's okay. Take the one with a big risk.
23:29 But if the heart is weak, then the risk is small, but the return is small.
23:34 Because the most important thing is health.
23:36 And the goal is a long term.
23:40 Which goal? If the goal is a year later, it means we have to see how much money we have, what investment we want to use.
23:48 Then one thing you can't forget, if I see that investment is all about risk-return.
23:55 Sure. The bigger the risk, the greater the possibility of getting the return.
24:00 So if someone offers you an investment, the risk is not that big, it's definitely a lie.
24:07 Don't be fooled.
24:10 Don't be fooled.
24:12 See, ask and check.
24:14 It's getting smarter, right?
24:16 Be an investor now, don't wait until later.
24:18 It's a pity, getting the money is not easy.
24:20 There's one more thing, if this is a tip from me, in the middle of a geopolitical fluctuation, one of the most important things is,
24:25 don't forget to drink coffee, because it makes us happy.
24:29 So that we can balance.
24:32 Okay, thank you, Mbak Meniska, for chatting.
24:36 Maybe we can chat while drinking coffee with our friends at MBRG.
24:39 While drinking coffee, sorry, beautiful coffee.
24:42 This can be an interesting insight in the middle of various kinds of turbulence.
24:49 What should I do with my investment portfolio?
24:53 Hopefully this can be a reference for you, successful investors.
24:57 For MBRG friends in MUFG Jakarta, and for investors, don't forget to continue to watch Vincast.
25:04 Because we still have other interesting topics, and also with exciting sources.
25:09 I'm Wiki Adrian, bye.
25:11 Thank you.
25:13 (music)
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