Ketegangan Geopolitik, Antisipasi dan Cara Mufg Jakarta Menjaga Market di Indonesia
Eskalasi geopolitik telah menjadi kabar yang tidak sedap bagi seluruh dunia, khususnya pasar modal dan komoditas nasional dan internasional. kinerja pasar modal di banyak negara bahkan ikut tergerus akibat sentimen perang tersebut.
IHSG pada beberapa pekan terakhir kerap mengalami koreksi, tidak terkecuali wall street yang kinerjanya fluktuatif, serta bursa asia yang ikut tertekan dengan meningkatnya eskalasi Timur Tengah.
Kondisi ini ditengarai akibat investor memilih untuk memborong aset safe-haven yang didorong oleh meningkatnya risiko geopolitik di Timur Tengah.
Dengan adanya peningkatan eskalasi global, bagaimana cara MUFG menyikapi pasar saat ini, Untuk menjawabnya.
IHSG pada beberapa pekan terakhir kerap mengalami koreksi, tidak terkecuali wall street yang kinerjanya fluktuatif, serta bursa asia yang ikut tertekan dengan meningkatnya eskalasi Timur Tengah.
Kondisi ini ditengarai akibat investor memilih untuk memborong aset safe-haven yang didorong oleh meningkatnya risiko geopolitik di Timur Tengah.
Dengan adanya peningkatan eskalasi global, bagaimana cara MUFG menyikapi pasar saat ini, Untuk menjawabnya.
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TVTranscript
00:00 Every time there is a geopolitical conflict, the chain of command is the one that is disturbed.
00:04 The longer the chain of command is disturbed, the stronger the pressure.
00:08 So maybe we can see now, the timing, how long it will take.
00:12 Well, because of that, what needs to be done when we want to run to the obligation is to look at the risk profile of the country.
00:25 Hello, investors. How are you? I am Wiky Adrian. Nice to meet you again at Vincast, your home of finance and investment.
00:31 Talking about investment, the art is quite dynamic. Sometimes nervous, sometimes happy, sometimes anxious.
00:43 One thing that can make you anxious is related to geopolitical escalation.
00:47 Because it seems to make your investment portfolio quite fluctuating lately.
00:53 Talking about geopolitical escalation, it is a bad news for the whole world.
00:58 Especially for the capital market, national and international commodities.
01:03 The capital market is also fluctuating in many countries.
01:06 Because of the war sentiment, whether it is between Israel and Hamas, Israel and Iran, Russia and Ukraine.
01:16 And the IHSG also experienced a correction in the last few weeks, except Wall Street.
01:23 This is quite fluctuating and the stock market is also under pressure.
01:29 This condition is of course in the south because investors prefer to buy safe haven assets,
01:35 pushed by the increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
01:38 With the increase in global escalation, how does MUFG affect the market today?
01:47 To answer this question, we have the head of treasury of MUFG Bank Jakarta Branch, Mrs. Meriska.
01:55 How are you? Mrs. Meriska, a big round of applause for Mrs. Meriska.
01:58 How are you? Are you nervous seeing the current geopolitical dynamics and fluctuations?
02:07 I am in the treasury, so my job is to monitor the volatility, but I don't have a job.
02:14 Okay, because this is one thing that is normal for all parties to be concerned.
02:18 Especially when it comes to commodities.
02:20 Lately, when it comes to the geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran,
02:28 oil is also one of the factors that have shown the movement.
02:33 What is happening globally, regarding the recession and inflation for a number of countries around the world,
02:43 as has happened in Russia and Ukraine,
02:48 what are the potentials and possibilities for the future of MUFG Bank?
02:53 What should we keep in mind? Or maybe we should be careful.
02:59 Okay, so the question is already difficult.
03:03 The point is, every time there is a geopolitical conflict, the supply chain is surely disturbed.
03:12 When the supply chain is disturbed, there will be an imbalance between demand and supply.
03:18 It means that it will definitely run to inflation.
03:20 So, the geopolitical conflict will definitely cause pressure on inflation.
03:27 If we look at the situation in Russia and Ukraine,
03:32 we have to look at the conditions.
03:35 At the time, it was not only Russia and Ukraine that caused the crisis,
03:40 but we also had just come out of the COVID pandemic.
03:43 During the COVID pandemic, almost all countries have implemented monetary policy that is very loose.
03:54 Printing money, monetary policy, liquidity is flooded.
03:59 So, the inflation has increased.
04:01 When the inflation rises, Russia and Ukraine will be affected.
04:05 So, the effect of inflation is quite massive.
04:09 It's double.
04:11 Yes, it's double.
04:12 Meanwhile, since then until now, countries around the world, including Indonesia,
04:19 have taken many steps to ensure that inflation is maintained.
04:25 The supply has increased.
04:27 Many policies have been implemented.
04:30 So, it seems that the world already knows how to maintain it a little.
04:36 Maybe we can see the timing now.
04:38 If it can be controlled quickly, it can be completed quickly,
04:43 but the effect of inflation will not be as big as we see from 2021 to 2023.
04:49 Moreover, yesterday there was a ship in the Suez Canal that was attacked by a group of people.
04:58 Then, in response to the solidarity with Hamas or maybe Palestine,
05:04 this also wants to be a step of solidarity.
05:07 Maybe it can be seen from the angle or point of view,
05:10 but it also disturbs the global supply chain and also affects inflation.
05:16 Because if we look at what happened in the Suez Canal,
05:20 what happened was that it was disturbed, the activity dropped to 50%.
05:26 So, the supply chain is definitely disturbed.
05:28 And the logistical costs also increased.
05:30 We have to find another way.
05:32 Find another way, demand and supply are disturbed.
05:35 The point is, we have learned from the time of COVID.
05:42 One fell at that time, China.
05:46 At that time, China was disturbed by the chain.
05:49 Immediately, it felt quite a big impact.
05:52 -Right.
05:53 If we talk about the commodity sector,
05:56 the sector that was most affected by the tension in the Middle East was the past.
06:01 What do you think about that, Mrs. Gah?
06:05 If we look at it, everyone knows that in the Middle East, oil is produced.
06:12 So, it must be the affected sector.
06:14 -Because of the oil and energy sector.
06:15 Yes, energy first.
06:16 Energy is definitely affected.
06:17 Then later, if the energy is disturbed, the oil price will rise.
06:21 It will run down, right?
06:24 The GDP will rise.
06:25 When the GDP rises, the logistics will be affected.
06:28 It means that the transportation will be affected.
06:30 When the transportation is affected, the impact will be great.
06:33 So, the first sector that is affected is energy.
06:37 Then, the other sectors will be affected.
06:40 -The one affiliated with the energy sector.
06:43 Unfortunately, when we talk about oil,
06:45 the one that is affiliated is almost all.
06:47 -Because it's all about energy.
06:49 -Yes, transportation.
06:50 -Right.
06:51 If we talk about the historical habits of the investors,
06:54 when there is a geopolitical conflict,
06:57 they usually run to safe haven.
07:00 Maybe gold was favored.
07:02 Or maybe investment instruments that are not much in return,
07:05 but at least it's safe.
07:07 The obligation may be considered as one of the safest investment instruments.
07:13 Do you see these two investment instruments,
07:17 or maybe you see other investment instruments that are favored?
07:22 And projection or maybe point of view related to investment instruments
07:28 that being considered as one of the safe haven,
07:31 how do you play it forward?
07:33 And what is the recommendation?
07:35 -Okay.
07:36 If it's a recommendation, I'm not afraid.
07:38 Let's talk about the facts first.
07:40 Let's talk about the facts first.
07:42 So, if we see, usually,
07:46 if there is an uncertainty, people will run to safety.
07:50 Right?
07:51 Nature, human being.
07:53 When there is uncertainty, we look for safety.
07:56 And usually, what is considered as one of the safe haven,
07:59 as you said, is gold.
08:01 Why? Because gold is universal.
08:04 The intrinsic value is universal.
08:06 And it's quite resistant to inflation, to global conflict.
08:11 That's why it's a safe haven.
08:15 And if we look at the history,
08:18 or we look at the past,
08:20 when there is a global conflict,
08:22 usually the one that does well is gold.
08:24 So, the tendency is still there and will continue.
08:28 When there is a conflict, usually gold is one of the choices.
08:32 -So, investors who hold gold, if there is a conflict, they're happy, right?
08:35 -Happy, of course.
08:37 -The price goes up when it's for sale.
08:39 -But the point is, when we see gold,
08:43 when there is a conflict, it usually does well.
08:45 But after that, it's quite stable.
08:48 If we move to obligation,
08:50 obligation is issued by a country.
08:58 So, it will depend on the condition of the country.
09:06 While the condition of the country will be affected by the economic condition.
09:12 Economic condition, global economic condition.
09:15 There is no country that is independent.
09:17 So, if we say Indonesia's obligation,
09:19 will it be affected by the global economy? Of course.
09:24 That's why what needs to be done when we want to run to obligation
09:30 is to look at the risk profile of the country.
09:33 Is the country's risk profile good enough?
09:36 How is the risk seen in the future?
09:38 For example, Indonesia.
09:40 Is Indonesia affected? Of course it's affected by the global economy.
09:43 But Indonesia's domestic economy is quite strong.
09:47 The development is still good.
09:49 The growth is still good. Inflation is maintained.
09:52 So, it can be one of the choices.
09:56 -Okay. But in my limited knowledge,
09:58 has Indonesia ever been obliged by the government?
10:02 There has never been a default, right?
10:04 -Until now, there hasn't been a default.
10:06 -Don't let it be.
10:08 -Don't let it be a default.
10:10 -Yes.
10:12 -It means that it can be one of the instruments of investment,
10:15 the safe haven.
10:17 -If it's a safe haven, maybe not.
10:19 If it's a safe haven, no.
10:21 Because it will move.
10:22 If we look at it now, it's under the influence.
10:25 Because Indonesia is also dependent on the external.
10:29 So, if we look for security,
10:31 at the moment, maybe it's gold.
10:33 But if we dare to look further ahead,
10:37 Indonesia has not many negative factors.
10:41 -Okay. If we talk about indicators,
10:43 before we decide to switch to obligation,
10:48 the economic condition, inflation, economic growth, etc.,
10:54 it should be considered before investors take obligation, right?
10:58 -It should.
10:59 If it's necessary, when we take obligation,
11:02 what we have to look at is the profile of the beneficiaries.
11:06 -Okay. -One first.
11:07 Then, the beneficiary profile.
11:09 For example, it's a good investment, as I said.
11:13 Growth, maintenance, all are maintained.
11:16 But there's a global condition that also affects.
11:20 So, we have to be careful.
11:22 So, the risk must be understood by every investor who wants to invest.
11:27 Can Indonesia stand on its own? No.
11:29 It will be affected by the global situation.
11:32 -Okay. So, diversifying our portfolio investment is an important thing,
11:37 at the moment like this?
11:39 -For me, yes. I will diversify my portfolio.
11:44 Because, as they say,
11:47 in English, "Don't put your egg in one basket."
11:50 There's always diversification.
11:52 But how much is the diversification?
11:55 It's up to each individual.
11:57 Looking for security or something more exciting?
12:00 Okay. Looking for security. Don't look for me.
12:02 I don't know. Don't follow me. I'm also curious.
12:05 -Okay. -Don't take it. Learn.
12:07 -Yes. Right. -Don't just listen to me.
12:09 Okay. This is about the strategy of Indonesia
12:12 to anticipate the high inflation possibility
12:15 due to the pressure that's happening now.
12:18 From the mitigation that's done by the government,
12:23 is this already in line?
12:26 Or is there something that the government needs to consider?
12:30 Is there? From your point of view.
12:32 Actually, if we go back to the pandemic,
12:35 it was the most uncertain time.
12:39 Like everyone just experienced it once.
12:42 Not once, maybe once.
12:44 -It's been a few hundred years. -Yes.
12:46 But, actually Indonesia is considered a successful country
12:51 in going through this COVID.
12:55 If we look at it, our economy is quite good.
12:58 It's still around 5% at that time.
13:00 Then, our inflation is also maintained.
13:02 It's rising, of course. But it's not crazy.
13:06 Why is this happening?
13:10 Maybe one thing that I'm concerned about is
13:13 collaboration and cooperation from all stakeholders.
13:17 -The authorities or stakeholders. -It has to be successful.
13:20 -Yes. -All ministries and all parties.
13:23 Yes. Because if we look at it, everything is moving in one direction.
13:27 Bank Indonesia, OJK, then the government.
13:31 Here is the finance minister.
13:33 Everyone is working together.
13:36 The monitoring policy is adaptive.
13:39 We see how the global condition is changed.
13:42 Then, there's also...
13:45 I forgot the name.
13:47 But, it's like a risk management team.
13:50 In every region.
13:52 To check the market, the price, etc.
13:57 -Invasion of the region. -Invasion of the region.
13:59 Correct. And it's all done in a coordinated way.
14:05 So, everything is maintained.
14:07 In my opinion, this is one thing that has to be continued.
14:12 Because this pressure is not over yet.
14:15 Moreover, the geopolitical conflict is increasing.
14:18 So, this has to be done.
14:21 Because Indonesia has one uncertainty, even though it's smaller.
14:25 But it has one uncertainty that is not yet open.
14:29 The uncertainty is not yet open.
14:31 That is the new government.
14:33 So, this is also one thing that the foreign investors see when they want to enter Indonesia.
14:38 We also want to see it first.
14:40 But, it should be, if we see, if we learn from everything that has been read until now,
14:46 there shouldn't be a big political change.
14:51 Or change, not politics, policy.
14:53 A big policy change.
14:55 So, in my opinion, what is being done now is very good.
14:59 And how it will continue.
15:01 Correct. Why is this an important thing from the government's point of view to control inflation?
15:08 Because inflation will affect the purchasing power of the people.
15:11 Why then the investors decide to invest in Indonesia?
15:15 Because the consideration of the purchasing power of the people is very high.
15:18 But when the government cannot control inflation,
15:21 which is to cut-hit or maybe to take away the purchasing power of the people,
15:25 it becomes weak and not interesting for the investment.
15:29 That's why a few days ago, there was a regional leader who got a sanction from the central government
15:35 because it was not considered to be successful in controlling inflation in the region.
15:39 Okay. What is the sector in the middle of the dynamics in geopolitics?
15:44 Which sector do we have to put more concern than other sectors?
15:52 We have to be careful with these sectors. Is there any?
15:55 Yes, for sure, because we have talked about it earlier,
15:58 we have to be careful with energy.
16:01 We have to be careful with energy.
16:03 We will see that there will be a little disruption,
16:09 or a lot of it, of course, we have to see it ahead.
16:12 But there will be a disruption in the oil producer.
16:18 Then energy, oil, then maybe later if this continues, logistics and transportation.
16:27 It will definitely become a sector that will be a concern in the future.
16:30 Okay. About the volatility of the currency exchange,
16:32 maybe the import-based, pharmacy sector, is it not recommended?
16:38 It should be, the effect will still be long, I mean, not the immediate effect of what is now.
16:46 If now it is more towards energy.
16:49 Okay. As one of the stakeholders in this ecosystem,
16:53 whether economically, globally, or maybe in Indonesia itself,
16:56 what is the strategy of MUFG Jakarta to maintain a good balance of goods
17:03 in this challenging moment?
17:08 And how does MUFG itself face the impact of the global condition of the market in Indonesia?
17:12 Okay. If we, MUFG, we will of course monitor energy consistently.
17:19 And see factors that can affect both internal and external.
17:26 One of the things that is of course our concern is this geopolitical conflict.
17:32 But why is MUFG here?
17:36 Why is MUFG in Jakarta?
17:38 Of course, to support and support national economic growth.
17:41 So, our strategy for the future is still how we can transfer loans
17:50 to help support national growth.
17:52 Of course, by ensuring that the quality of the assets we lend is still good.
17:59 So, there may be an increase in the check-up or what the effect will be.
18:05 But how to maintain the existing asset quality?
18:11 So, we will not reduce our ability to lend and support national economic growth,
18:17 but maybe the assets or the quality of the assets that we maintain.
18:20 The second, of course, at the moment what we have to do is to do balance sheet optimization.
18:27 What is balance sheet optimization?
18:29 How many assets do we have? How do we do it?
18:33 So, we get a good return for the bank itself.
18:37 Of course, if I don't work, right?
18:40 If there is no return.
18:41 So, there must be a good return but still support national economic growth.
18:47 Because why are we here?
18:49 As a bank, right?
18:51 Intermediate and support.
18:53 Intermediate.
18:54 Okay, we have discussed what happened internationally.
18:59 Is there any domestic challenges that the MBF strategy must be customized to meet domestic conditions?
19:08 Maybe if from the domestic itself, actually our domestic situation is quite good.
19:14 GDP growth is still above 5%, inflation is maintained at 3%,
19:22 the ability to buy the people if we look at retail, sales, etc. is still good.
19:28 But now what we see is the pressure from the outside.
19:35 Foreign investors, we talked about safe haven earlier,
19:39 foreign investors because of too many uncertainties,
19:42 they also wait to enter Indonesia.
19:46 So, now what is under pressure is our exchange rate.
19:50 So, how do we see the effect so that we can also take care of it together.
20:01 Because we usually work with BI, with everyone to ensure that the exchange rate is not everywhere.
20:08 And one thing we do is, again, for our customers,
20:14 coincidentally we are moving in the corporate field,
20:17 we are not moving in the retail field,
20:20 our corporate, especially those who are importers, of course have difficulties at the moment.
20:26 So, how can we provide good solutions for them so that the risk is always there,
20:33 but how to mitigate and reduce the risk.
20:37 Okay, interesting. Related to the sector related to importation, this will also be a market catered by MUFG itself.
20:49 Is there any reduction in allocation, financing for the sector based on imports,
20:56 because it is related to the dynamics in the global market,
20:59 or maybe just see this as a potential to continue to expand,
21:04 or maybe add financing to this sector, or what is the strategy?
21:08 For now, there is no change.
21:10 So, we are still in sectors that we have supported so far.
21:18 So, there is no significant change.
21:21 It seems that if you look ahead, because the quality we have or the quality of assets we have is quite good,
21:30 at the moment we see that there is no excessive risk,
21:32 so we have not seen that there is a need to change or even reduce.
21:39 We will still keep it.
21:42 As long as everything is measured and also see the potential for the future, why not?
21:47 Okay, as a few last questions, can you share tips with your investors
21:54 so that the investment is still safe, what kind of money is appropriate
21:59 so that it can still thrive in the middle of a conflict sentiment or geopolitics right now?
22:05 It's hard.
22:07 Looking for safety.
22:09 Looking for safety.
22:10 If I look at it like this, maybe all investments always bring risks.
22:21 Always bring risks, of course, with a guaranteed return.
22:26 One is, in my opinion, learn the risks first.
22:30 Can we see the risks?
22:33 And one thing, actually if we learn or read,
22:37 usually, investors already know,
22:40 see the risk profile, see the investment goal,
22:45 and don't put your egg in one basket.
22:49 So, in my opinion, don't put your egg in one basket.
22:54 Try to see and then one thing,
22:58 this may not be in the reading, but for me it's number one,
23:02 check your heart first.
23:04 Check your heart first.
23:06 How strong your heart is.
23:08 -Surprised or not.
23:09 Because in the future it will be quite fluctuating.
23:12 That's right. And you have to see,
23:14 if I see it, for example, you want to save or invest for your school child,
23:20 it's still 15 years away.
23:22 If it's going up and down, is your heart strong?
23:25 If your heart is strong, it's okay.
23:28 Take the one with a big risk.
23:30 But if your heart is weak,
23:32 -The risk is small, but the return is good.
23:35 -Because the most important thing is health.
23:37 -That's right. -Go back again.
23:39 -And the goal is not long term. -That's right.
23:41 -Which goal? -Stock.
23:42 If the goal is a year later,
23:44 it means we have to see how much money we have,
23:47 what kind of investment we want to use.
23:49 Then one thing we can't forget,
23:51 if I see that investment is all about risk-return.
23:55 For sure, the bigger the risk,
23:58 the bigger the possibility of getting the return.
24:01 So, if someone offers you an investment,
24:04 the risk is so big,
24:06 it's definitely a lie.
24:08 Don't be fooled.
24:10 Don't be fooled.
24:12 See, ask and check.
24:14 It's getting smarter.
24:16 Be an investor now, don't wait until later.
24:18 -It's not easy to get the return. -That's right.
24:21 There's one more thing.
24:23 In the middle of geopolitical fluctuation,
24:25 one of the most important thing is,
24:27 don't forget to drink coffee.
24:29 -So we can be happy. -That's right.
24:31 -So we can balance. -That's right.
24:34 Okay, Mbak Meniska, thank you for chatting.
24:37 Maybe we can chat while drinking coffee with our friends at MBFG.
24:40 While drinking coffee. Sorry, beautiful coffee.
24:43 This can be an interesting insight
24:46 in the middle of various troubles.
24:50 What should I do with my investment portfolio?
24:54 I hope this can be a reference for you,
24:57 a successful investor.
24:59 For you at MBFG Jakarta.
25:01 And for you, an investor,
25:03 don't forget to continue to watch Vincast.
25:05 Because we still have other interesting topics.
25:07 And also with exciting sources.
25:09 I am Wiki Adrian. Bye.
25:11 Thank you.
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