Leeds United: Can Leeds win at Wembley against Southampton?
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00:00 Well then, let's get on to it, the big one, which is the playoff final.
00:05 We've skirted around it so far in this episode, but finally we'll get on to it.
00:11 It is Leeds vs Southampton in the playoff final at Wembley on Sunday.
00:15 Of course, they only met each other not so long ago on the final day of the championship season
00:20 with Southampton running away as 2-1 winners at Elland Road, which helped to consign Leeds to the playoffs.
00:26 But let's be honest, it was already pretty inevitable given the way things were looking prior to that match.
00:32 So that might be a bit of a psychological edge in favour of Southampton,
00:36 but of course Leeds are very good against Norwich and sort of back to their best and that will fill them with confidence.
00:43 Southampton get in there with a nil-nil draw at the Hawthorns before a 3-1 win at home at St Mary's against West Brom in the return leg.
00:51 So, Lee, you've said there Daniel Falker could look at it two ways.
00:57 He could go with the attacking way he employed against Norwich in the second leg,
01:02 or he could perhaps take an attacker out and perhaps try to be more difficult to break down and contain Southampton,
01:08 at least for large parts of the game, if he went more defensive.
01:11 So what do you think is more likely?
01:13 Do you think maybe because Southampton have beaten them so recently,
01:17 Leeds might be a little bit more tempted to sit in and contain and then maybe if the game needs to open up towards the end of it,
01:24 then perhaps push on or would he just want to go out all guns blazing and win the game by half-time?
01:30 It's a big call really, isn't it? And you summarised it brilliantly there.
01:33 I mean, at the end of the day, Daniel Falker said it himself after the 2-1 defeat at Elland Road.
01:38 He said basically, his words are along the lines of, if we met in the playoffs, we'd have a different approach.
01:43 Maybe that's a clue in itself because obviously what he was basically saying is that in that final game of the season,
01:48 look, it was so unlikely. I think we already all knew there were going to be playoffs,
01:52 which weren't going to slip up and stuff. And I think most of the players kind of felt that as well.
01:56 But you had to have a go for it. And that's his team selection and stuff and the way they went for it was very much geared toward that effect,
02:04 having to go early on and stuff. And his words afterwards, well, will it be a bit different if we play him in the playoffs?
02:09 Well, possibly. But the gut instinct with this now is that after clicking so well in that 4-0 absolute hammering of Norwich,
02:16 then why not just go for it again? Because there would be the chance that they could just blow him away from the start.
02:22 And that's what you would hope. So it's going to be a big call, though, because if he does that, obviously,
02:26 and then they end up getting exposed at the back and go 1-0 down early or something like that,
02:30 then obviously you start looking at it thinking, well, should we have gone a bit more defensive?
02:34 I mean, the obvious option is to go with this three-man midfield thing, obviously,
02:37 that they did at Norwich, which made him a lot, you know, three-man in midfield and a bit harder to break down.
02:41 But I just think after that 4-0 win, everybody was springing the step.
02:45 The natural thing to do would be to do that and, you know, just sort of like really good, not guns blazing,
02:51 but, you know, try and get on the front foot, really. And he has always said that in his press conferences as well, Daniel Farker.
02:57 He's always said that, whatever he's manager at Leeds United, there won't be a team that sit back.
03:01 There'll be a team that want to be on the front foot, that want to push things, that want to, you know, get ahead early and stuff.
03:06 And I just think that first leg at Norwich was a one-off because he wanted to make sure that, obviously,
03:10 they were solid first and foremost. But this is a big showcase game and I think they'll go for it, basically.
03:15 And, you know, I think that's probably the way it will go. In terms of how I see it going,
03:19 I mean, obviously, the big talking point that everybody will allude to is the fact that Southampton are the only teams
03:24 who have done the double-over Leeds, you know, beating them home and away. And you can't ignore that.
03:28 You just can't, you know. But I just think this, I could see a lot of reasons why it could be different this time.
03:33 I mean, obviously, the 3-1 defeat in September, you know, Leeds weren't great.
03:37 But even on the, Daniel Farker said afterwards, we've dominated pretty much every statistic,
03:40 but we just haven't been sharp enough in the final third, etc, etc.
03:43 I mean, I remember that game and they weren't very good. But you look at the figures and actually,
03:46 they did have more shots on target and more possessions. So you can see where he's coming from.
03:51 Also, that was back in September. Leeds are a different side now when they click, as they did in that 4-0.
03:56 And the last game of the season, you know, like, as I say, there was loads of different sort of facets to that.
04:01 Obviously, the fact that the players are probably thinking of the playoffs, this, that and the other.
04:05 And even in that game, they did have the chances and stuff as well. Southampton just took theirs and, you know,
04:10 made the most of them, really. That all said, massive, massive respect for Southampton.
04:14 Got some very, very good players, obviously. Key factors in this, Che Adams and Ross Stewart.
04:19 Look like they're both going to be back. They haven't played recently. They're going to be two big ones.
04:23 On the flip side, Stuart Armstrong and Gavin Bazoon, who were two big players, who were definitely out.
04:27 Adam Armstrong has obviously got 23 goals this season, which is a phenomenal return.
04:31 And, you know, he's obviously going to be one of the main ones to look for. I think he's favourite to score first.
04:35 Will Smallbone's a very good player as well. But, I mean, Leeds have got very good players themselves.
04:40 I mean, we saw in that 4-0 victory and they are favourites, Leeds. I'm not surprised they're favourites.
04:45 It's an interesting one. I mean, so many people like to have different opinions about it.
04:49 I mean, a lot of people think it's just a real 50-50 game. But the more I think about it, the more I can see why Leeds should be favourites, really.
04:55 Because obviously they've had that 4-0 win. They'll have the crowd there.
04:59 I mean, the thing is, it's obviously a neutral venue, Wembley, but Leeds will try and make it feel like a home game, won't they, with the noise.
05:04 And then, sure, Southampton will too. But, I mean, you know what the fans are going to be like down there.
05:07 There'll be a sea of white and I suspect it'll be like a right sight to behold and fill the Leeds players with confidence.
05:12 So, you know, from a Leeds United perspective, I'd actually go into it feeling quite confident, I've got to say.
05:19 And I hope that doesn't sort of sound ominous because I wasn't confident at all going into the semi-final second leg and look what happened.
05:26 So I hope we don't get the reverse this time around. But the more I think about it, there's just, you know, there's plenty of ticks in Leeds United's boxes and stuff.
05:32 And really, I mean, they should have enough to be able to go and get it done.
05:36 My big worry would be obviously, A, how they handle the occasion and B, if something bad happens early, i.e. going 1-0 down early on or something like that and how they react to that.
05:45 But look, I mean, if you want a game to go into the playoff final with, hammering someone 4-0 in front of that crowd at Ellen Road is exactly what you want.
05:52 You know, the defence obviously will be boosted by a clean sheet. Melier will be boosted by a clean sheet.
05:57 The attackers should be thriving because they're scoring goals. I mean, like what's not to like about it, you know?
06:01 So really, like they should be going into it full of confidence. You have massive respect for Southampton, obviously.
06:07 They showed what they could do and they went on that incredible run. They eventually turned the screw against West Brom.
06:12 So you by no means write them off. And it is a game that could go either way, really.
06:16 But I mean, you know, I think you've got to be reasonably hopeful about Leeds.
06:20 But it's handling the occasion. We all know what this means, don't we?
06:23 And let's just hope that finally, finally, they can lay their playoff hoodoo to rest in the Olimpia style.
06:28 Very much so, yes. I mean, I'm struggling to predict this game. I know you're...
06:32 Yeah, I was going to say, what's your thoughts on it?
06:34 Yeah, it's a tricky one, Lee, to be honest. I am struggling.
06:38 I sound like Alan Sugar on The Apprentice whenever he's about to fire someone. He always says I'm struggling.
06:43 Well, I actually am. I actually am. Because as you've put there, Southampton, they're a good side.
06:49 Adam Armstrong, you know, for the Championship level, is a great striker.
06:53 Has scored an awful lot of goals this season. As you say, Southampton are missing a couple of key players.
06:59 Leeds will be, you know, massively boosted by that win against Norwich.
07:05 Southampton ended the season probably marginally better than Leeds did.
07:09 So you've got that to factor into it as well. So I think it's a really, really tough one to call.
07:15 I think the fans, the whole 12-man thing that we've mentioned already, that is a factor.
07:21 And the fact that you'd imagine Wembley will... Well, obviously it'll be full.
07:27 You can imagine from a Leeds perspective, they'll be making as much noise as they possibly can in their end.
07:33 So I can see it. Honestly, I can see it going the distance.
07:38 Yeah. I don't know whether that means penalties, but I can see it at least going to extra time and maybe a winner in extra time.
07:45 But I'm not entirely sure who. I think if I was going to pick, I probably would go just Leeds.
07:53 Good stuff. Good stuff. Yeah, I think it could well go extra time.
07:58 Yeah, it could well go extra time. It's not difficult to envisage that whatsoever.
08:03 And if it goes extra time, then all of a sudden you're on the cusp of penalties.
08:07 Can you imagine the nerves in that one? It'd be absolutely incredible.
08:10 But personally, I felt like going into the playoff semifinal and even into the second leg at Ellen Road,
08:17 my gut instinct feeling was that if they get through this, great, obviously they're in the playoff final.
08:22 But then you're going into the playoff final nervy and almost fearing the worst and thinking,
08:27 oh, no, you're going to lose at the final hurdle, fall at the final fence.
08:31 But that's because I wasn't expecting Leeds to play like they played against Norwich.
08:34 They literally looked back to the best. And so I think based on that, I think summarising it basically,
08:40 if Leeds play like they played against Norwich, I think they'll win in 90 minutes.
08:45 That's what I think. It's true that Southampton are a miles better team than Norwich and they'll be a lot harder.
08:50 But nevertheless, I think if Leeds repeat that performance or something close to it, I think they'll get it done in 90 minutes.
08:55 But it's a big if because we just don't know, do we?
08:58 These games tend to be, as much as you can build them up and build them up, they tend to be quite nervy affairs,
09:05 regardless of how teams come into them form wise. And because there's so much riding on it,
09:11 teams sometimes can be a little bit reluctant to go all guns blazing and they don't always click as well.
09:16 Finals, as I say, sometimes there can be massive affairs where it's really open and teams score a lot of goals
09:22 or on the opposite side, teams can just be trying to stay quite tight and not be complacent at the back.
09:28 And so I can see perhaps, I think because of the attacking sides both teams have,
09:34 I could see a score draw with Leeds nicking it in extra time.
09:38 Like a 1-1 or something like that?
09:40 Yeah, 1-1 after 90 and a 2-1 after extra time to Leeds is how I will predict it.
09:46 Hopefully.
09:47 And if that comes true, I'm going to be wishing I'd put a bet on.
09:52 Well, I'll go in full throttle this time and confident. I'll go Leeds to win and both teams to score.
09:58 Like maybe something like 2-1 Leeds. There's confidence for you, 2-1 Leeds.
10:04 But I mean, it could be anything, let's be honest. You're so right.
10:07 Like it could just be a cagey start and a totally different game.
10:10 And you've got to be braced for the prospects of penalties. It could well go that way.
10:14 Look, let's just hope that when we reconvene next show next week, Leeds are a Premier League side,
10:18 like even if it is on penalties.
10:20 But it's crazy to think that the whole season has gone down to one game.
10:24 But I mean, that's the playoffs for you, isn't it really?
10:27 And that was always the danger. We've done these shows right from the start of the season.
10:30 And we said like, that's why it's imperative that they get automatic promotion,
10:33 because obviously then you haven't got to go through all this and the ifs and the buts and the maybes and the limbo.
10:37 But it is what it is now. It is one game. And they've got the talent to be able to win that one game.
10:41 It's just handling the occasion and getting back to the best. And it's a big if.
10:44 But yeah, fingers crossed, Daniel. Let's hope we are both right on this occasion.
10:48 Indeed, yes. So that means that next week we will return with our bumper season review of Leeds United.
10:55 Of course, partially half of that episode will be dedicated to reflecting on the playoff final against Southampton,
11:01 with the other half looking back on either what has been a great season,
11:04 depending on the results or what has been a season of what if, depending on whether it doesn't go up for Leeds.
11:12 Hold on to this. Hold on to this. Exactly. And we will see you all then.