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00:00But Abhishek Kapoor, Group CEO of Purvankarana joins in to take us to how the quarter's been for Purvankara.
00:05Abhishek, thanks for joining in this morning.
00:08Purvankara, Abhishek, start with what the quarter's been like and what are you expecting in the next quarter as well?
00:14Your pre-sales number's up significantly, YOY, for F525.
00:18What is the reason for that? Where are you seeing activity? Walk us through it.
00:24Thank you for having me on the show.
00:27So, last quarter has been fantastic for us.
00:29It has been highest ever quarter in terms of sales.
00:32We have done 1950 plus crores of sales.
00:35We have handed over highest ever number of units, which is about 1188 units.
00:41In terms of business, I think we are very excited on the overall performance for the last year.
00:46We have done 5,900 crores and we have collected 3,600 crores with an operating surplus of 513 crores.
00:53So, we're pretty excited with what's going on.
00:55There's healthy cash and bank balance.
00:57We have got about 900 plus crores sitting out there.
01:00So, we're now ready for deployment.
01:02In fact, we have already put out about 300 crores of land advances
01:07and we will start seeing a lot more de-closures.
01:09Some of the announcements you have already heard,
01:11which is in the redevelopment space in Mumbai, and there's a bunch more coming.
01:15So, we're pretty excited about this year, last year's performance in the coming year, for sure.
01:19Wow, Abhishek, it's been a good quarter from the look of it.
01:22But as we look ahead into F525 with the jump in pre-sales,
01:26and I believe you've secured some redevelopment rights as well for a few significant projects.
01:31What sort of visibility do we have on that?
01:33When do you see that impacting your cash flows top line over the next few quarters?
01:39Look, so with the current portfolio and 14 million square foot that we intend to add next year,
01:45we're looking at a total surplus of about 11,000 plus crores that will come in over next four years.
01:50As far as the redevelopment space is concerned,
01:52we are just factoring in currently only the Lokhandwala project in the launch and the surplus.
01:57Of course, as we have signed up Pali Hill,
02:00in terms of being appointed as a preferred developer in Pali Hill,
02:02and we should be signing the DA shortly, that will definitely bring a lot of value.
02:06And of course, we are in advanced conversation with a bunch of other redevelopment projects
02:12in South Mumbai and Western suburbs as well,
02:15where we are intending and hoping that we should be able to close some more transactions.
02:18So on an overall basis,
02:20I think these will start showing up in our cash flows starting this financial year.
02:24And of course, incrementally in the next financial year,
02:27because Mumbai and Pune is definitely one big piece of our growth journey.
02:31Of course, now we are clear that we are looking at NCRs.
02:34So now our endeavour will be to scale up our business in NCR as well.
02:38Right, Abhishek, just wanted an understanding on
02:42conflicting reports that we're getting for the entire realty sector.
02:46On one hand, we understand that there's been a significant drop in inventory.
02:50On the other hand, there is some expectation that there is a little bit of a saturation,
02:56which is expected to reach towards the end of perhaps six months down the line,
03:01in terms of inventories, and that could actually lead to perhaps a higher number.
03:05What is your own reading, your own assessment of this situation at the moment?
03:11Look, at this moment, you're right, the inventory is really down.
03:14So you're looking at about 10 months to 11 months of inventory across the country.
03:19Different micro markets will behave differently,
03:21and we need to be watchful and mindful of that.
03:24If there's a certain micro market that is oversupply,
03:26you may see plateauing of the prices,
03:28you may see some amount of plateauing of absorption levels.
03:32But having said that, I think the opportunity and tailwinds are huge for the
03:37large branded and organised player.
03:40So what is happening really is a consolidation.
03:42And I believe that us as a brand and other players who are strong,
03:47well-organised brands will continue to gain market share.
03:51And even if there is a little bit of a saturation,
03:54which I don't see it personally currently.
03:56I mean, I don't think that even if there is a demand catch-up
03:59and you assume that there'll be a lot of inventory coming,
04:03I mean, there is a long journey for us to all get to that 18 to 24 months,
04:08which is normally an optimal level.
04:10So right now, I think there is a big catch-up going on.
04:12So I don't see that happening right now.
04:14In fact, I would assume that prices,
04:17especially for the branded strong players,
04:19will be going up somewhere on an average of about 8% to 9% across the country.
04:23So right now, I don't see that as an issue.
04:28But let's wait and watch.
04:29Nobody can really predict the future very well.
04:31Take a quick word on your margins as well.
04:34We've seen some amount of volatility coming for the company
04:38and as well as bottom line,
04:40because last quarter and the last year,
04:42we had a little bit of a tax write-back.
04:44And because of that, the comparable numbers,
04:47at least on the bottom line, look lower.
04:49My question is, what is it going to look like going forward
04:52if you got your word on margins going forward,
04:55as well as your bottom line?
04:57Right.
04:58So I think margin is really related to how much revenue I'm able to recognize,
05:02which is dependent on how much possession I'm able to keep, right?
05:05So as an organization, our endeavor is to increase the possession.
05:09If you look at our numbers,
05:11our revenue growth has been about 60% last year versus this year.
05:15Now, bottom line is also a factor of certain expenses that you incur,
05:19which you haven't taken into account in the same year.
05:22Even if your gross margins are great and your bottom line is great,
05:25but there are expenses for growth.
05:27For example, we have done pre-sales of 5,900 crores,
05:30which is 90% above the previous year.
05:32So with the sales and marketing expenses have gone up
05:35and they have been taken into account in the bottom line
05:38from the previous sales, which is what we have recognized now.
05:41So that obviously is a booked cost, booked expense.
05:45And similarly, there is GNA.
05:46I mean, today we are expanding aggressively in the West.
05:48We are evaluating North.
05:50So there's a lot of GNA, which is getting invested there.
05:54But the consequence of that is that you're adding huge amount of top line,
05:57bottom line and value to the organization in this year and the future years.
06:01So I think that it's more to do with the aggressive growth journey that we are into,
06:06that this is reflecting on account of expenses that we are booking for that.
06:09Otherwise, we're very, very happy with the performance.
06:11We have handed over 3 million square foot.
06:13Next year's target is about 4 million square foot,
06:15while we have sold seven in the last year.
06:17Now, again, this will happen because we will go beyond 7 million square foot next year.
06:22That's what we are working on because we are launching 14 million square foot.
06:24So, you know, these expenses keep, you know, keep getting booked.
06:28And therefore, you see a squeeze in the bottom line, which is the patent PBT level.
06:32But having said that, we are very comfortable with where we are.
06:35And we believe that in times to come over next three to four years time,
06:38you will really start seeing, you know, these numbers change on paper.
06:42And I think that's when possibly.
06:44But today, what we should watch for as a organization,
06:47which is what we really focused on is one is a pre-sales number.
06:51Clearly, the collections number operating surplus, for example,
06:54our operating surplus was about 513 crores net operating surplus, right?
06:58Which is fantastic.
06:59It's gone gone up by about 400 percent.
07:01And we're sitting with healthy cash balance for deployment for the for the new acquisition,
07:05which will bring in a huge value.
07:06So I think right now, really, the focus is on these areas.
07:10And I believe that this will eventually reflect on paper in the financials.
07:15We leave it at that.
07:16Thank you so much for joining us and giving us that comprehensive explanation.
07:20Of course, that's the management of Purvankara telling us about
07:24what the nitty gritty is that go into accounting.
07:27And of course, what we can expect going forward.
07:30The commentary remains positive,
07:32not just for the company, but for the sector as a whole.
07:34But on that note, let's get in an FNO expert at the moment.
07:39Well, we have hit the twenty three thousand mark.
07:41Well, let's get in Sudeep Shah for a conversation here.
07:43Sudeep Shah of SPS Security.
07:45Sudeep, good morning.
07:46Thanks for joining in.
07:48Of course, the benchmark is currently flat,
07:51but the last part of the strength did play out yesterday.
07:54To a certain extent, I'd reckon it was also the expiry play.
07:58But what are your observations that you made of late?
08:01And how are you trading the nifty at the moment?
08:06Good morning, Agam.
08:07See, yesterday, while we've seen that big shortcoming move,
08:12it was more to do with the large caps in comparison to the small caps in the mid caps,
08:16because they did not move in the same,
08:19with the same ferociousness like the large caps had moved.
08:22And that was even quite evident with the drastic change in the long shot ratio
08:27that we had witnessed yesterday evening.
08:29Now, yesterday, the nifty futures long shot ratio, which has come,
08:34that has come at around 42 percent, which was around 30 percent.
08:37So it's a good improvement in that.
08:39Also, that means that a lot of short positions have been cut.
08:43And that is quite obvious when we are seeing a big move in the large caps,
08:47in the stocks like Infosys, Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Banks moves.
08:53Then that means that there has been a big shortcoming into these names.
08:56And earlier, prior to yesterday, we were seeing nifty taking resistance at 22,600, 22,700 mark.
09:04And every rise to that zone was being met with selling pressure from higher levels.
09:09But now, with the changing dynamics and with the way the prior swing highs have been taken out,
09:16I feel now dips to 22,800, 22,780 will act as a strong support on the downside.
09:22Even if you see the derivative data for the next weekly expiry, monthly expiry,
09:2722,900, 22,800 puts have seen quite a bit of additions.
09:31And on the upside, 23,000 followed by 23,200 calls have witnessed some writing.
09:36So I feel post that move yesterday,
09:39indices may slip into some kind of a consolidation with a positive bias.
09:43But I'm optimistic and I feel that 22,800, 22,780 zone would now hold out as an important support.
09:50And from that zone, we could see one more move up to 23,150, 23,200,
09:56which is the upper end of the rising channel.
09:58So that is what I feel about Nifty.
10:00For Bank Nifty, I feel 48,400, 48,500 will now act as a strong support.
10:06Until the time Bank Nifty holds this zone of 48,450, 48,500,
10:12the next move in Bank Nifty could be up to 49,100, 49,300 on the upside.
10:18Sudeep, that's interesting.
10:20It's the magic in the markets.
10:22And of course, as we go into the weekend, it looks like
10:25some consolidation may actually be healthy at this stage.
10:28Sudeep, in terms of stocks, I want to start with Adani Group names,
10:31because they were the shining stars yesterday, along with banks.
10:35A quick view on any of those counters, anything that's looking constructive,
10:38Adani, Enterprise, even this morning is probably one of those loan gainers on the Nifty 50.
10:45Good morning, Samina.
10:46Yesterday, if you see Adani, Enterprise, that had given a symmetrical triangle breakout now.
10:52And for about 32.50, that breakout was confirmed.
10:56And the close also was above that zone.
10:58And today, we are seeing a follow-up move on the upside.
11:00So although it has retested 33.50, 33.60 support zone,
11:05but right now it is going towards the highs of the day.
11:08And it is even now crossing and sustaining above its March swing highs also.
11:12So I feel from the current levels, Adani, Enterprise can be looked up as a candidate
11:17to move up to 3600, 3650, exactly from that place where the fall had come in January 2023.
11:26So I feel at least there is a likelihood of the stock gaining grounds up to that level.
11:31And even the Adani ports also, for that matter, that stock also has given a breakout above its
11:37previous swing high of 2nd April, 1424 was at level.
11:41And yesterday, that was broken out with volumes at a rising open interest.
11:46So I feel from the current levels, both the Adani stocks look good.
11:51Adani Airports, specifically, if you see 30 to 80, 30 to 90, would act as a strong support.
11:57And for Adani, Enterprise, if we see, then 33.50 will now act as a strong support on the downside.
12:03Okay. All right, Sudeep.
12:06And coming down to a handful of other stocks that we can, in fact, pull out very quickly,
12:14want to take a look at what's going on with something like, of course, we've spoken about
12:19Adani Enterprises, which continues to rise. These are the top stocks on your radar at the moment,
12:23and which are actually, I think, integral abbreviations reacting to earnings.
12:27But the slackness is not as much.
12:30Havels, on the other hand, is perhaps the one which actually stands out in trade today.
12:35So let's talk about Havels going ahead. Sudeep, any trade there?
12:40What's your observation here? And what would you do with something like Havels?
12:47Fresh buy at this level in Havels, I would not be recommending it because the stock has risen
12:52steeply from 1600 to 1900 levels in about 15 to 17 sessions now. And the way it has moved,
13:00there's a possibility that we might see levels of 2050, 2100 in the next coming few sessions
13:06with the kind of momentum that the stock has seen in the last two days. So those are holding,
13:12they can continue holding the same with 1830 as a trailing stop loss for an upside of 1980 and
13:182050 levels. But from a fresh buying perspective, I would just wait for a few days now, because
13:25since we are coming very close to this election verdict date, now, it would be better for traders
13:31to scale down their bets as well as just try and go from a hedging perspective rather than just
13:37chasing prices at higher levels. Okay. And finally, Sudeep,
13:42stocks on your radar, which could potentially be traded at the moment?
13:46A few stocks that I like, one of them is Amaraja Energy. Now, this stock, if you see in the month
13:53of April, the stock had started rallying from 800 and it rallied all the way up to 1200 till 24th
14:00April. And in the last one month, it has consolidated between 1050 and 1150. And right
14:06now, we are seeing the stock breakout of this consolidation range as well as the stock has
14:12never broken its 20-day exponential moving average in the last 15 sessions. So I feel
14:17there is strength visible there. And Amaraja Electric can be bought with an 1140 stock loss
14:22on the downside and 1210 targets on the upside. The second stock that I like is from the PSU
14:29banking space. Now, if you see the Union Bank specifically, that stock had moved a bit from
14:39lows of 106 to almost April highs of 116. From there, it slid into a period of consolidation.
14:46Right now, we are observing a downward sloping trend line breakout as well as the stock has
14:50been sustaining above its 20-day exponential moving average since last few sessions and
14:55forming higher top, higher bottoms also. So I feel from the current levels, Union Bank also
15:00can be bought with a stock loss of 152 on the downside and a target of 162 and 165 on the upside.