Ramaphosa taking South Africa 'in right direction', ANC making 'steady progress' with major reforms
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00:00 South Africans are heading to the polls today in what's set to be the country's most crucial
00:04 election since the end of apartheid 30 years ago.
00:07 27 million registered voters are set to elect a new parliament, which then chooses a president.
00:13 And for the first time since 1994, the African National Congress is at risk of losing its
00:19 outright majority and could be forced to negotiate a coalition.
00:23 The ANC was once led by the late Nelson Mandela, who helped win freedom for black South Africans
00:28 after decades of apartheid.
00:30 But now with inequality and unemployment on voters' minds, many are hoping for change.
00:37 Delano de Souza reports.
00:40 Long queues outside polling stations as Africa's largest economy heads to the polls.
00:47 Wednesday's vote is seen as one of South Africa's most pivotal, as support for the ruling African
00:53 National Congress has begun to wane.
00:56 According to projections, the ANC may lose its majority for the first time since it came
01:01 to power in 1994 under Nelson Mandela.
01:04 "I just wanted to be the first one to take out the ANC.
01:09 I'm sick and tired.
01:11 The youth don't work.
01:12 They have at least three degrees with no jobs.
01:16 If there are jobs, they're given to friends of the ANC."
01:18 "We are hoping that things will change because our biggest problem, our children are not
01:26 working.
01:27 I'm 30 years old, I'm still maintaining a son of 30-something years.
01:30 He went to university but no job."
01:33 South Africa has a population of 62 million and the average age is just 28.
01:39 Many of the country's first-time voters grew up only knowing the ANC, and they blame the
01:44 party for South Africa's numerous problems including power outages, corruption, crime
01:50 and an unemployment rate that stands at nearly 33%.
01:52 "We are young and there's no job for youth.
01:57 We have degrees, we're not getting jobs."
02:00 "This is definitely my first time voting.
02:01 I'm excited and I hope to see something different in the future."
02:07 "I'm just really interested on where this country is going to go now from this election
02:10 because it's really a critical point right now."
02:12 Voters in South Africa vote for a party which in turn chooses the president.
02:17 Cyril Ramaphosa is seeking a second term in office and defended his record during the
02:22 campaign.
02:23 Polls are due to close at 9pm local time with results due out on Sunday.
02:31 Richard Calland is a law professor at the University of Cape Town and he joins me now
02:35 live to talk a bit more about the election in South Africa today.
02:38 Richard, thanks for joining us.
02:40 What are your thoughts?
02:41 Could this mark the end of the ANC's majority there?
02:44 I think that's more likely than not.
02:46 I think all the smart money is on the ANC dropping below 50%.
02:50 It's clearly a watershed moment.
02:52 They dominated the electoral scene for six national elections and 30 years.
02:57 It's what I've been calling a second transition.
03:00 Obviously the first transition 30 years ago was out of apartheid, as your package suggested.
03:05 Now the second transition is out of that period of electoral dominance by the ANC.
03:11 So we're going to have to get used to a more cluttered, more competitive and probably more
03:15 complicated political landscape.
03:17 Indeed.
03:18 More complicated, though, could mean looking at some kind of coalition building if the
03:22 ANC loses below 50%.
03:25 What kind of post-election coalition could we be looking at?
03:29 It will hinge very much on where exactly the ANC vote lands.
03:33 If they are between, say, 46 and 49, the ANC will be able to put together a relatively
03:38 easy and comfortable coalition.
03:41 President Ramaphosa will probably remain in office and life will continue more or less
03:45 as it is.
03:46 If we go 46, we enter a period of far greater uncertainty and complexity.
03:51 And it will be difficult then for the ANC to make a choice about who would be a reliable,
03:56 stable partner.
03:58 Our experience of coalitions so far at local government level has not been a happy one.
04:02 A series of really unstable coalitions have denuded citizens of good governance in cities
04:08 as important as Johannesburg, Pretoria and Port Elizabeth.
04:12 So that's the, I think, anxiety or the concern here that, in fact, maybe the devil you know
04:17 is better than an alternative that is less stable.
04:21 Well, talk us through the ANC challengers.
04:24 What are the other parties that could be the big winners today?
04:27 Well, the interesting thing there is that for the last, say, 20 years, the Democratic
04:32 Alliance has been the main opposition party.
04:35 But as the ANC declines, it's not the DA that is necessarily going to benefit because the
04:41 opposition landscape has also become more competitive and more cluttered.
04:46 There are new runners and riders like Action SA and the Patriotic Alliance, quite populist
04:53 parties.
04:54 And one of the big issues for the future, Jenny, is this going to be a switch now to
04:58 a more mature, multi-party democracy?
05:01 Or are we going to find a much more fractured and splintered landscape where populist parties
05:05 can prosper and the void at the middle that the ANC will, in a sense, create as it weakens
05:11 may become a real weakness for our democracy?
05:14 Indeed, because it does seem like a coalition could be a risky gamble of moving toward a
05:19 stable government.
05:21 Well, that's right.
05:22 And I think, again, for me, 46, which I happen to think is certainly my prediction, more
05:28 or less, for the outcome.
05:29 If the ANC goes below 46, as I say, much more complicated.
05:32 They may have to choose, for example, between a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters,
05:37 which is a very kind of hard nationalist populist party, inherently unstable, an unreliable
05:44 partner probably, or the Democratic Alliance, which is a Christian Democrat right of center
05:50 party.
05:51 Both the ANC and the DA will find it difficult to sell that to their constituency.
05:55 But for both parties, it may well be the most stable and the most consistent option were
06:00 the political leadership of those two parties to be able to rise to the occasion.
06:04 And they would probably, in those circumstances, package it as a government of national unity.
06:09 Richard, what are for you the biggest issues facing voters in South Africa today?
06:14 Well, it's clear that jobs, we have a sort of 35 to 50 percent unemployment rate, which
06:20 is, of course, extremely problematic and challenging.
06:24 We have a sluggish economy that isn't driving growth and jobs.
06:28 And we have a really difficult crime rate.
06:31 So I think the core issues for voters are jobs and security at home.
06:36 What about for young voters, something like less than 50 percent of South Africans under
06:40 the age of 20 even registered to vote today?
06:43 Where is all of that apathy coming from?
06:46 That's a really important point, and I'm glad you raise it.
06:48 A third of our eligible voters, that's 13.7 million voters, failed to register for this
06:55 election.
06:56 In the last 30 years, they've effectively turned their back on democracy or electoral
06:59 democracy.
07:00 And seven or eight million of those are under the age of 30.
07:04 That's a real concern.
07:06 It suggests either that there is a sort of dry tinder group of revolutionaries in waiting,
07:12 or perhaps simply that the current political leadership and parties has been unable to
07:17 offer a value proposition that is enticing enough for those young voters.
07:23 You know, Richard, I think everyone agrees that perhaps 30 years in power is too long
07:27 for any party.
07:28 Let's say that South Africa does move towards some sort of coalition with the ANC and with
07:34 other parties.
07:35 Do you think things will be better for the country that way?
07:38 Are you hopeful for what will come out of this election?
07:41 Well, the contradiction here is that whilst the ANC as an organization is in decline,
07:46 it's in many ways broken.
07:48 There are large parts of it that are corrupt.
07:50 It's highly divided.
07:51 It lacks any new ideas or fresh thinking.
07:54 But on the other hand, the ANC in government, particularly around Sirurama Poser, our president,
07:58 and the people he's been appointing to government, in fact, have been introducing really important
08:03 reforms.
08:04 And although the pace of change in the last few years has not been as sharp and as bold
08:09 as many would say we need, it is steady progress.
08:12 And we are heading slowly in the right direction.
08:14 An example of that is the absence of load shedding.
08:17 Now the fact that electricity sector reforms are beginning to kick in and work.
08:24 So I would argue that the best thing for the country is a few more years of Mr. Ramaphosa
08:28 as president rather than turning to a kind of very messy and uncertain coalition arrangement.
08:33 All right, Richard.
08:34 Thanks for that.
08:35 Richard Callan there speaking to me from Cape Town.