Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (30/05/2024) dengan Tema Analisis Saham Pilihan: AKRA, DOID Hingga MYOR".
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00:00 Thank you for joining us.
00:03 I'm still in the marketbust.
00:05 I'm still in the discussion with Mr. Chandra Pasaribu,
00:07 Head of Research, PT Yuanta Security Analysis Indonesia.
00:10 We will be watching the election this morning.
00:12 Mr. Chandra, there is ACRA with the recommendation of BionWeakness,
00:15 with the level of support at 1600, resistance at 1700.
00:19 Then, besides ACRA, there is DOIT with the recommendation of BionWeakness,
00:23 also with support at 540,
00:25 and support at 585, Pegas, BionWeakness,
00:29 with support at 1595, resistance at 1640,
00:33 and Mayora, BionWeakness recommendation,
00:35 with support at 2260, and resistance at 2350.
00:41 We will try to analyze one by one, Mr. Chandra.
00:45 What is the consideration for BionWeakness in ACRA?
00:50 Actually, in general, the first three,
00:53 ACRA, DOIT, Pegas, actually more into the energy index.
00:57 So, from our technical department,
01:00 they may see energy as a defensive stance.
01:05 Because, given the fact, all the pressure is there.
01:09 For ACRA itself, it's actually quite defensive.
01:15 Because they basically have some revenue
01:18 that comes from selling BBM.
01:21 And we know that BBM has a relatively fixed margin.
01:28 So, there may be a little bit of a gap,
01:30 but it means that people still use BBM,
01:32 and the margin is relatively unchanged.
01:35 So, in a way, the position is a bit defensive.
01:41 One more thing, actually, ACRA also gets a lot of revenue
01:45 from the industrial estate.
01:47 What we know is that maybe there have been some issues
01:52 about relocation from China.
01:55 So, there may be a little bit of potential
01:57 for revenue balance from the industrial estate.
02:00 And in terms of energy, it may be relatively more defensive.
02:05 Okay. For ACRA itself,
02:07 the last price was at level 1630,
02:11 this morning's inflation,
02:12 this morning's inflation was 0.91%.
02:14 This means that it's getting closer
02:17 to the level of support that you recommended.
02:20 Yesterday, in one week,
02:23 I mean, it has increased by 3.82%.
02:26 Today, it's already 0.91%.
02:28 Are you waiting for it to reach level 1630?
02:31 Or can you buy it now?
02:33 For this morning, maybe in general,
02:36 it's better to watch it first.
02:38 Oh, watch it first. Okay.
02:39 Because, frankly, the pressure seems quite significant.
02:43 Okay. The support level that you recommended,
02:46 I corrected it earlier, it's at 1600, right?
02:49 Okay. From ACRA, what is our relationship with DOIT, Mr. Chandra?
02:52 DOIT is in relation with Batu Barak.
02:56 Because they are basically a service for Batu Barak.
03:01 The price of Batu Barak is relatively stable,
03:05 maybe up to this point.
03:06 So, it has fallen from the peak,
03:08 but it's still at a favorable level for mining companies.
03:12 So, it means that servicing mining companies
03:15 can also be relatively positively impacted.
03:18 So, back to the energy,
03:21 so far, it's like domestic economic growth,
03:25 it's still good, 51 GDP,
03:27 so it should be a demand on energy
03:30 that basically translates to electricity and exports,
03:34 the price is also relatively favorable.
03:36 Maybe in this relative peak,
03:39 so the defensive position is a little better.
03:43 Yes, that indeed the global narrative related to renewable energy
03:46 continues to flourish,
03:48 but then the needs of Batu Barak itself are still very high,
03:52 and also in terms of production,
03:54 or maybe the stock of Batu Barak in Indonesia,
03:58 or maybe those owned by the producers of Batu Barak,
04:01 is still very large and very capable of meeting
04:04 the market demand, which is also still very large.
04:07 Okay, the level of tractors is at 555,
04:10 let's wait for level 540 first,
04:13 if you want to enter DOIT.
04:15 Fundamentally, how interesting is this one, Mr. Chandra?
04:18 DOIT,
04:21 maybe a little less sexy than United Tractors,
04:27 because United Tractors, it looks like maybe it gets
04:31 the end client, maybe the mining that is serviced
04:35 by United Tractors is more of a showoff.
04:38 DOIT is maybe a little on the second layer,
04:40 not that bad, but on the second layer,
04:44 maybe the risk or the relative appetite of investors
04:48 is a little more, relatively a little more.
04:52 So, from the institutional investor's point of view,
04:56 maybe they will look more at United Tractors first,
04:59 because the producer has a choice.
05:01 DOIT, so far, it's just the PNX market, right?
05:04 Correct.
05:05 Okay. From DOIT, we go to Pegas, what is it like, Mr. Chandra?
05:08 Pegas, in the first quarter yesterday,
05:14 there was actually a little margin improvement,
05:18 but unfortunately, on our side, we see
05:21 that the margin improvement may be temporary,
05:24 because they basically surcharge at the time.
05:29 So, because now there is a cheap pipe gas shortage,
05:34 so if there is a demand for a higher quantity,
05:37 it will be charged an additional fee.
05:40 So, that's the problem.
05:41 The actual shortage of gas pipes
05:45 is due to the natural decline in the supply in the wellhead.
05:49 And this will be compensated by Pegas by looking for LNG.
05:53 The problem with LNG is that the price is more expensive,
05:58 so maybe at the end of the day,
06:00 what we saw yesterday in the first quarter,
06:02 there was a margin increase,
06:05 maybe it will return to normal,
06:07 but it is compensated with an additional volume of LNG.
06:12 So, in essence, we see that the prospect of gas demand is still quite high,
06:16 it's good, but there is a little problem with the supply.
06:19 But if it can be filled with LNG and regasification schemes,
06:25 maybe the volume of gas can go up again.
06:31 Okay. Is it a long-term or short-term recommendation?
06:35 Short-term.
06:36 Okay, fundamentally, is Pegas interesting, Mr. Candra?
06:41 They must be able to overcome the supply issue.
06:45 Because there were several wellhead operations,
06:48 especially in West Sumatra,
06:53 or Riau, which basically dropped quite drastically,
06:56 and it hasn't been replaced yet.
06:58 So, if it can be replaced either with LNG
07:03 or with other sources of wellhead,
07:06 maybe the traction will be more positive.
07:09 But so far, the demand side is not a problem,
07:13 the supply side is a problem.
07:15 If the supply side is overcome,
07:18 the next question is the price.
07:20 Is the price still competitive,
07:23 so the selling price can still be attractive?
07:26 Okay, good.
07:27 The support level is recommended at 1595 and the SSS at 1640.
07:32 Different from the sector related to energy,
07:37 earlier in the third part we discussed,
07:39 we went to the majority, the consumer goods sector.
07:43 How interesting is it that you recommend the majority in this morning, Mr. Candra?
07:48 Indeed, the consumer is a bit narrow-minded.
07:51 So, this is more, I think,
07:54 maybe if you look at it in terms of charting,
07:56 it's more interesting.
07:58 But back to the consumer sector,
08:00 in general, it's relatively good.
08:02 We see, it's a bit controversial,
08:08 the price of chocolate is increasing,
08:10 the sugar price and some imported goods
08:14 are probably affected by the increasing exchange rate.
08:18 So, there is a cost issue,
08:20 it's a bit of a fallacy.
08:22 But maybe it can be seen from the charting,
08:26 it shows that the consumer sector is resilient,
08:30 still has the ability to translate the price,
08:33 even though there is pressure on the cost side.
08:36 So, maybe fundamentally,
08:38 there shouldn't be too much interference.
08:40 So, the translation of the cost can be done smoothly.
08:45 Okay. It has weakened quite a lot.
08:49 In three months, one month,
08:51 one week, it weakened 0.87 percent,
08:54 daily it weakened 0.44 percent for Mayura.
08:57 The last level is at 22.80,
08:59 while the support level that you recommended is at 22.60.
09:04 Okay, that's it.
09:06 We have been recommended this morning by Mr. Chandra,
09:08 there are Acra, Korean Duit, Pegas, and Mayura,
09:10 all of them have been recommended by OnWeakness.
09:12 We will pause for a while, Mr. Chandra,
09:15 and our colleagues will be back soon.
09:18 One interesting discussion is related to
09:20 the tax rate that must be paid by employees,
09:23 2.5 percent, and also by companies, 0.5 percent.
09:26 This is a very hot polemic to discuss,
09:30 but it has become a concern for you as a marketer.
09:34 It seems that in general, it is quite high.
09:38 Because, frankly, we are talking about,
09:41 there is a figure this morning,
09:43 45 to 150 trillion per year.
09:46 So, the people's money, a lot of people,
09:50 so, frankly, what is the responsibility?
09:54 Because we see there are some,
09:56 like Asabri, Jiwaseraya,
10:00 it's a problem.
10:02 So, what is the responsibility of 45 trillion?
10:06 And how far is the effectiveness
10:09 to reduce the backlog of housing?
10:13 I think in general, the goal is good,
10:16 because there are some segments of society
10:20 that may not have access to housing,
10:23 this is basically provided.
10:25 But maybe the mechanism needs to be adjusted
10:28 in such a way that maybe one, it can be responsible,
10:31 and the second, it can be effective.
10:33 Okay. If we then relate it to the property sector,
10:35 is it still far away, sir?
10:37 It looks like a distance,
10:39 because right now, we're talking about,
10:41 for example, let's say our salary is cut today,
10:45 it means 45 trillion per year,
10:48 a month, it means about 3 to 4 trillion.
10:52 If suddenly I give 3 to 4 trillion instantly,
10:56 what do they want to do?
10:58 The mechanism is, will they immediately
11:00 spend it on the property company,
11:02 3 to 4 trillion, or do they have to look for land first,
11:05 go to work first, or something like that.
11:08 So, the mechanism is...
11:10 In terms of portfolio, we don't know much about fund management,
11:14 how far it is, historically.
11:16 True.
11:17 But, in fact, instantly, 3 to 4 trillion is instant,
11:22 it's cut right away, the money is immediately available.
11:24 Okay. We will update first,
11:28 for the movement of the ISG,
11:31 Mr. Acana, we will leave it to the women to discuss.
11:33 We'll see what it's like, what the development is like.
11:37 So far, Mr. Bersa, the ISG is moving in the red zone
11:41 with a 0.83% rate, of course it's still moving.
11:44 At level 7081.974,
11:48 okay, moving to 7078.580.
11:52 Okay, and that was the discussion
11:56 related to the side, there are also various issues
11:59 that color the dynamics in the Indonesian modern market.
12:02 Mr. Chandra, thank you for joining us.
12:05 Thank you.
12:06 Good luck to you, I always see you, Mr. Chandra.
12:08 Thank you.
12:10 (Music)
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