"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Senin (01/07/2024) dengan Tema Analisis Saham Pilihan: DVLA, KLBF, SIDO, TSPC".
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00:00We are still in discussion with Mr. Ezza Ridu Ibnu Tama, Interim Head of Research from Henan Putih Rakyat Sekuritas.
00:05Here are the recommendations and choices that we summarized in the following graph.
00:09Of course, from Mr. Ezza, among them, Pemirsa is preceded by stocks from the healthcare or pharmacy sector.
00:18There is DVLA, recommended by Super 1465, Resistant at 1630.
00:25Kalbe Pharma is also recommended by Super 1475, Resistant at 1630.
00:30Next, there is Samsido, recommended by Pemirsa, Buy on Witness at 725,
00:38and Resistant at 795, TSPC at 1880, Buy on Witness, until Resistant at 2030.
00:47Okay, let's continue the discussion with Mr. Ezza.
00:51Mr. Ezza, why is it mostly pharmacies or healthcare?
01:01I see that the pharmaceutical industry is experiencing an uptrend.
01:09Most of these, if you look at SPCE, Sido, Kalbe, and DVLA, they are experiencing an uptrend.
01:19Maybe, mainly because we are approaching the rainy season, where top-line sales are usually the best performing,
01:29but we're also seeing a lot of probability in H5N1 virus also making its way through global agricultural supply chains,
01:40as well as, you know, it's the bird flu that's also spreading with bovine,
01:47as well as, there is a human cases as well.
01:51So, we see that if there is a possible spread and panic,
01:57these pharmaceutical and healthcare stocks should be performing very well.
02:03Okay, so you don't have to worry if last week it dropped by 3.5%?
02:09No need, because I only see minor correction.
02:13Okay, so it's just a minor correction, but the year-to-date has not increased significantly,
02:17it only increased by 3.4% in the last three months, and then it immediately dropped by 3.4% last week as well.
02:25So, yes, cyclically, the first semester is usually the worst financial performance for healthcare stocks.
02:34It's usually better in the second half of the year with the rainy season.
02:38Okay, so if we talk about opportunities in the second semester of 2024,
02:42the choice is HEDCAR, including DVLA,
02:44so you recommend to buy entry level Rp 1,520 to Rp 1,530,
02:50with target Rp 1,620 to Rp 1,630, stop loss Rp 1,465 to Rp 1,455.
02:57The current price is currently at Rp 1,520, so it's still in the entry price, right?
03:02Yes.
03:02Okay, the same thing with KLBF?
03:06Yes, so KLBF should be the same story,
03:11mainly because healthcare right now should be attractive for the second semester, as I said.
03:19KLBF should be focusing on consumer products as well.
03:25They also sell several consumer products,
03:30which usually, even though it's already past Eid,
03:36their end of year sales for their consumer products usually have good performance as well.
03:44Okay, the performance is quite epic, right?
03:47Even still optimistic, sales grew up to 7% in the middle of fluctuating exchange rate of Rupiah.
03:52Rupiah doesn't have much impact on the pharmacy,
03:55maybe because there are quite a lot of imported goods, or what do you think, Mr. Eza?
04:00For KLBF, the export contribution is 5-6%.
04:11They do have a joint venture in the Philippines,
04:14and they also have a trading hub in China,
04:17and they also want to focus on West African nations,
04:22but their contribution is still under double digit.
04:26Maybe they want to focus on increasing their export in the future,
04:32but their domestic top line or revenue is too big to be competed with their overseas revenues.
04:45Because their overseas revenues and their joint ventures have been less aggressive so far.
04:54Okay, with foreign net sales in the regular market,
04:59in the last 6 months, it was 1.27 trillion Rupiah.
05:03Do you think there is a chance to reverse this trend in the second semester of 2024?
05:09Don't worry about net sales.
05:12Yes, because we can see that even though IDX technology has a bigger net sales,
05:22so if we look at it relatively from other...
05:30Okay, Mr. Eza, can you still hear me clearly?
05:34Okay, it looks like we have a signal interference from our analysts this morning,
05:41but I want to say that Calbe Pharma has experienced significant strengthening since June 3rd to June 7th.
05:50Then it fluctuated and experienced a weakness again at the end of last week,
05:58and this morning, the opening increased by 1.3%.
06:01Mr. Eza, Calbe increased by 1.3%, 15.45%.
06:04What is your recommendation?
06:06Mr. Eza, can you hear me from the studio?
06:08Yes, I can.
06:09Okay, Calbe increased again at 15.45%.
06:12What is the best strategy?
06:16It is better to wait for Calbe Pharma to be corrected at this time.
06:24Okay, wait for it to be corrected first.
06:26You don't see that Calbe Pharma tends to be bought by investors.
06:32Is it because there is a case in BUMN pharmaceutical company?
06:41No, right?
06:42Because you see that the energy is reflecting, right?
06:45Yes.
06:46Okay.
06:47Next, there is Sido.
06:48What is interesting about Sido?
06:51Sido appeared.
06:53Aside from Calbe Pharma, only the export is 5-6%.
06:58Sido's export contribution is more significant.
07:04And maybe the USDIDR is not too…
07:09Influential, right?
07:10There is not a lot of effect from the forex pressure from Sido.
07:17And if we look at the fourth quarter,
07:21most of the top line contribution is from the fourth quarter.
07:26So, I think that maybe the first and second quarters are not too good.
07:33Those who have to chase that performance are in the third and fourth quarters.
07:43Basically, the second semester.
07:45Now, Sido Muncul has an advantage where the foreign holder, Concordant International,
07:57has actually successfully exited from Sido Muncul.
08:01So, in 2022-2023, Concordant International,
08:07which was one of the major shareholders of Sido Muncul,
08:11has successfully exited.
08:13And now, 2024, we see that Sido Muncul is in an uptrend.
08:18Maybe that is one of the cases where the foreign investor has left,
08:25and local investors have started to enter,
08:29and Sido Muncul is rising again.
08:31And we are seeing that trend fully developing right now,
08:35where Sido Muncul is experiencing an uptrend
08:40and maybe can reach their all-time high at the end of 2022.
08:47Okay, at the end of 2022, at what level do you think, Ezza?
08:53The highest level at that time, which is likely to be repeated?
08:56Around 1,000?
08:59Around 1,050.
09:01Around 1,050. There is a chance to test that level again,
09:04even though the increase is already quite significant.
09:07Around 54% in the last six months,
09:10but as Ezza said, there is still a chance to continue experiencing strength.
09:15The recommendation, by all means, for Sido at the moment at 7.75,
09:19it is better to buy at 7.45 to 7.50.
09:22The target is 7.90 to 7.95, the closest stop-loss,
09:25below 7.25 to 7.20 for Sido shares.
09:29TSPC?
09:31All of them are healthcare today, right?
09:33Yes, because we're seeing a lot of foreign investors
09:37actually going into healthcare.
09:40If we look at it, there is a lot of outflow,
09:43but there isn't as much outflow in the healthcare sector
09:47as there are in other sectors,
09:49like consumer cyclicals, non-cyclicals, especially technology.
09:54One of them is also agricultural and mining.
10:00IDX Healthcare is one of the defensive sectors,
10:05and with a lot of investors looking to go in,
10:11like IHH from Malaysia going in,
10:15as well as GIC investing in Siloam,
10:18the healthcare margins in Indonesia are actually very attractive
10:23for private equity businesses, investment firms,
10:29going in.
10:30There is a narrative for healthcare industries
10:34to actually develop it,
10:37maybe to be on par with the healthcare services
10:42in Singapore or in Malaysia.
10:44Because if we don't develop it here,
10:47they're not tapping into a larger market base in Indonesia,
10:50a larger population.
10:52A lot of people are investing from abroad
10:54to a number of hospitals in the country,
10:56and you can see that the healthcare sector
10:58has a lot of potential,
11:00even if there are a few defensive sectors.
11:05So, I recommend that for investment,
11:07the healthcare sector can be chosen
11:09according to what we have just discussed.
11:11There are four emitters in Pemirsa.
11:13And the trading opening this morning,
11:15at 9.07 AM,
11:17Pemirsa opened at 0.66%.
11:19It rose again to 7,110.
11:21We will continue after the break.
11:22Pemirsa is still in the market bus segment.
11:25Pemirsa is still in the market bus segment.
11:27At 9.09 AM,
11:29more than nine minutes,
11:30which is the opening time in West Indonesia,
11:32the trading opening has begun.
11:33IHS Pemirsa rose by 0.66%,
11:35to 7,108.
11:37It rose to 7,100,
11:40which is about 48 points.
11:42The exchange rate for the US dollar
11:44slightly increased by 0.03%,
11:46to 16,390.
11:48Although it has strengthened,
11:49it is still close to 16,400 Pemirsa.
11:52With the trend of the stock,
11:53which became the top gainers and top losers
11:55this morning,
11:56based on Pemirsa's value,
11:58the other is KJEN,
12:00with a strength of 15.69%.
12:02GPSO, 14%.
12:04Then there is LEAD,
12:0612.99%.
12:08Temas, SMDR, Hexa, Teens.
12:10PTPP, AMMN, Pemirsa rose again,
12:12almost 3%.
12:13SMGR, 3%.
12:15Then losers based on value,
12:17there is OASA, CARS,
12:19BDKR, MTY,
12:21TRON, INOF, MAPA, INDS,
12:23GUDANGGARAM, BUKA,
12:25and there is also Unilever, Pemirsa,
12:26with losers based on value.
12:28Mr. Eza, in short,
12:29with the current joint price index,
12:31what strengthens you is still consistent,
12:33that this is only a minor uptrend
12:35and there is a chance to go down again.
12:38That's right.
12:39And our resistance
12:46for this minor uptrend
12:48is around 7,150 to 7,200.
12:53And I think if we look at the volume,
12:57which helps to increase the current ISG,
13:02this morning is very minor.
13:05There is a chance of 7,115 to 7,200.
13:10That's the closest.
13:12And then you see there is a chance to go back.
13:14How about energy?
13:15Mr. Eza, oil is back again
13:17above the US$80 per barrel.
13:20Don't you see energy is worth talking about right now?
13:25Not right now.
13:28If we look at the price of oil,
13:32maybe in the next few weeks,
13:36there is a rebound,
13:37there is a return to the price above,
13:39but the major trend is down.
13:43And this is mainly because of the advent of people
13:47actually looking for other alternatives,
13:50people looking for renewable alternatives,
13:56such as solar, geothermal, even nuclear.
13:59Indonesia is also thinking of building
14:02its own nuclear plant by 2032.
14:04So there are segments of...
14:10There are countries where oil may not be sought after.
14:19You see the demand is not too significant,
14:22considering oil reserves from the United States
14:24also released last week were quite high,
14:26but the demand is not too significant.
14:28You see right now,
14:29it's still not interesting to invest like that, right, Mr. Eza?
14:35Yes, it's not interesting right now.
14:37Thank you for sharing the information.
14:39We have covered a lot,
14:41but time is limited.
14:42See you again, Mr. Eza.
14:43Best of luck to you.
14:45Thank you.