Campaigning to be Mexico's next president reached a climax on Wednesday with two women leading the race for the first time in the violence-plagued Latin American nation. Gema Kloppe-Santamaria, Associate Professor of Latin American History and International Affairs at George Washington University and Global Fellow at the Wilson Center, speaks to FRANCE 24's Mark Owen.
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00:00 Mexico will elect a woman president for the first time this weekend.
00:06 The two candidates, who are both women, have ended their campaigns.
00:10 Their political fate rests on a single round of voting, which takes place on Sunday.
00:15 Our correspondent, Ian Grier, is in Mexico City.
00:17 His report starts at the final rally of candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, who's currently leading
00:22 her rival, Xochitl Galavez, by over 20 points, according to the opinion polls.
00:29 We are in the Zocalo, which is the symbolic heart of Mexico's nation and its democracy.
00:34 And it's where Claudia Sheinbaum, a 61-year-old environmental engineer for the left-wing Morena
00:40 party, is closing her campaign with the hope of becoming the first female president in
00:47 all of North America.
00:48 She's finishing on a high with a 20-point lead in the polls over her rival, Xochitl
00:54 Galavez, but it has also been a political campaign season marked by violence, with 35
01:00 candidates running for different posts murdered and drug cartels of the chief suspects.
01:06 This highlights one of the huge challenges she will face if she becomes president.
01:12 But this close of campaign is a really festive atmosphere.
01:17 So let's see how her supporters are feeling.
01:23 I'm happy and I'm here because I believe in this project.
01:26 I used to be very sceptical with politics and I wouldn't vote, but she convinced me.
01:38 She's one of us.
01:39 I mean, she knows our people.
01:42 She's humble and she's not authoritarian like the people that led this country before.
01:47 Now Claudia Schaumbaum has gained momentum with the popularity of the current president,
01:53 Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, who's her mentor.
01:57 We heard her promise to carry on his policies and as she says, take them to the second level.
02:03 Critics say she could be a puppet of AMLO, but she says firmly she will rule independently
02:09 if on Sunday she's elected, as her supporters are saying, as the first presidenta of Mexico.
02:17 Yoan Grillo, our correspondent there in Mexico City.
02:20 History in the making in Mexico.
02:22 Let's bring in for the analysis Gemma Clabo-Santamaria, who's associate professor of Latin American
02:26 history and international affairs at George Washington University and a global fellow
02:30 at the Wilson Center.
02:31 Gemma, thank you so much for being with us here on France 24.
02:33 We appreciate your time.
02:35 We were hearing from Yoan Grillo in Mexico City, Claudia Schaumbaum, the continuity candidate
02:40 in a sense, following the footsteps of outgoing president Obrador.
02:44 Joshua Galvez promising to get tough on drug cartels.
02:48 Give us your impressions of the two candidates.
02:51 Of course, I will begin by saying that Mexico is facing a historical moment.
02:55 As Yoan was mentioning, Mexico is going to be the first North American country to have
03:00 a female president.
03:02 This really reflects the strength of the candidates, but it also comes as a reflection of the cultural,
03:08 institutional and political changes and transformations that the country has experienced over the last
03:13 two decades.
03:14 I would say that they are both a strong candidate.
03:16 Clearly, Claudia Schaumbaum is leading the polls.
03:20 She's an entrepreneur.
03:22 She's a woman of science.
03:24 She's somebody that has a strong support from the current president, but she's her own person
03:30 as well.
03:32 She connects very much with the people.
03:35 Then you have Sochil Galvez, who comes from a very different business background that
03:42 presents a coalition, the position coalition.
03:45 I would say that both are inheriting a country that has key challenges, especially on questions
03:52 of security.
03:53 I would say that one of the great paradoxes that Mexico faces today is that it's going
03:57 to have its first female president in the midst of a crisis of violence that especially
04:03 affects women and girls in Mexico.
04:07 And clearly, it is a sign, as you were just saying, of great cultural change over the
04:11 past two decades.
04:13 Because if you stopped, I don't know, any 10 people in the street said, "What are your
04:17 impressions of Mexico?"
04:18 They would talk about, I suppose, drug crime cartels.
04:21 They might talk about a macho culture.
04:24 Has that really changed?
04:25 This is something that is really happening?
04:27 Or are these two women just kind of, I don't know, two anomalies that have come forward?
04:31 Is there genuine change happening in Mexico?
04:33 Yeah, I would point out several indicators that do tell us a different story of the country.
04:41 The country has now reached gender parity, thanks to a reform, an electoral reform that
04:49 pushed political parties to elect and put forward the candidacy of women.
04:54 Mexico also adopted feminist foreign policy.
04:57 And of course, you need to also take into account the activism of women, of feminist
05:03 movement on the ground, and also the activism of mothers of the disappeared, and mothers
05:09 of victims of violence.
05:10 So I would say you have a lot of changes in the country that are reflected politically,
05:17 socially, institutionally.
05:19 So I would say that they are not necessarily the exception.
05:23 I would say that they are rather one more indicator of how the country has transformed.
05:29 Still, there is undoubtedly a lot of issues in Mexico with patriarchal culture and with
05:36 discrimination against women.
05:38 And again, like one of those, one of the more dramatic indicators of that is the crisis
05:43 of femicides that the country is experiencing, the disappearance of girls and women, and
05:49 just overall the persistency of gender-based violence, both at the domestic and also in
05:56 the public level.
05:58 So I would say that changes have occurred, but at the same time, the country continues
06:03 to face key challenges.
06:05 So those changes are really positive and positive for women, and it's great to see it happening.
06:10 And as you point out, there's been this constant chipping away at the problems in terms of
06:15 holding women back to enable them to get pushed forward and develop and take charge of things
06:21 and try to shape matters.
06:22 And let's face it, the men have been in charge for a long time and haven't done such a great
06:25 job.
06:26 Maybe it is time for women to have a go and really sort of use a bit of feminine ingenuity
06:30 in making things happen properly.
06:33 You mentioned, though, the issues of crimes against women.
06:36 You mentioned femicide.
06:37 You mentioned domestic violence, horrific things that have been going on.
06:40 Tell us more about that.
06:41 How big are these problems in Mexico?
06:45 Yes.
06:46 So I would say, I mean, in terms of like violence, homicide levels have been decreasing over
06:52 the last years.
06:53 However, Mexico faces over 30,000 people killed every year.
06:58 I mean, these are like historical numbers.
07:00 And in terms of the killing of women, only last year, Mexico had over 3,000 women murdered
07:08 in Mexico.
07:09 All of those murders are typified as femicides.
07:13 But clearly that speaks to us about a very pressing crisis of insecurity.
07:19 There are over 100,000 people disappeared in Mexico.
07:22 I mean, there have been some debates about the numbers, but those are the numbers that
07:28 we have and that we discuss.
07:30 So disappearances, femicides, that is really like a pressing issue.
07:35 And of course, this has to do with the activities of criminal organizations, but it also has
07:41 to do with state-led violence or rather the criminal pollution of some state actors.
07:47 So I would say the dimensions of the crisis are quite significant.
07:51 In Latin America, Mexico in absolute numbers has the greatest number of killings against
07:58 women only after Brazil.
08:00 And in terms of femicide rates, it's between the fifth and sixth country with highest levels
08:05 of femicide.
08:07 So I think in the Latin American region, Mexico does face very pressing issues.
08:13 So whether come Sunday, we're talking about President Schoenbaum or President Galvez,
08:19 both women will have major problems on their hands and major issues to resolve.
08:26 And I'm wondering when you think about the extent of the influence of drug cartels, then
08:31 all the issues that you've just been outlining that women are facing, how does the new president
08:37 get to grips with that?
08:39 Because in a sense, I suppose the new president will become just another target for those
08:44 gangsters and those criminals.
08:46 Yes, I mean, the next president for sure will have to face several challenges.
08:54 And I mean, both candidates have addressed to a certain extent or have recognized that
09:01 they are inheriting a country with high levels of violence, with key challenges in terms
09:06 of the activities of cartels and other criminal groups.
09:12 I think both of them have alluded to the fact that they will continue with the participation
09:17 of the military in public security functions, something that is quite concerning, given
09:22 that several human rights organizations and international observers have pointed at how
09:27 the militarization of public security has led to human rights violations and has only
09:32 increased the number of disappeared people in the country.
09:38 Claudia Schoenbaum has clearly stated that she will continue with the militarization
09:42 of the country, even beyond public security functions, in terms of construction of public
09:47 infrastructure, migration, handling and other responsibilities.
09:51 And the case of Xochitl Galvez, she has argued that she will build a high security prison
09:58 a la Bukele.
10:00 So there is real concern on behalf of civil society organizations and human rights organizations
10:06 that both main candidates are promising to continue some of the same militarized, punitive
10:15 approaches that, to be honest, haven't yielded results in Mexico so far.
10:22 So still big problems ahead and some of their policies, it seems, represent problems in
10:27 themselves.
10:28 Do you have a sense of who will win?
10:31 Who do you think will become president?
10:34 I think it's very, very possible that Claudia Schoenbaum will be the next president of Mexico.
10:40 She's leading the polls.
10:43 She has a very safe margin that I will say most surely is positioning her to be the next
10:50 president of Mexico.
10:51 And again, regardless of who wins, we will certainly have a woman in power in just a
10:57 few days elected in Mexico.
11:00 Gemma Club, Santa Maria, thank you very much indeed for joining us here and giving us your
11:03 assessment and your analysis of the situation in Mexico.
11:07 Enlightening as it was.
11:09 And of course, as you point out, history will be made on Sunday with the first female president,
11:13 well, not just in Mexico, but in the whole of North America, which clearly is something
11:18 worth raising a glass to in terms of the thoughts of sexual equality and the advancement of
11:24 women's rights.
11:25 We, of course, wait to see how that develops.
11:27 And once again, thank you to Gemma Club, Santa Maria, of the Wilson Center and George Washington
11:34 University for joining us here for Apropos on France 24.
11:37 We take a short break, after that it's science.