• 5 months ago
Transcript
00:00Live right here on this Monday on the early line on SportsGrid, we are still three days
00:08away from game number one, the opening night of the 2024 NBA Finals.
00:13So in these next three days, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, before we get to game day Thursday,
00:19what are we going to see?
00:20What might change between Boston and Dallas as the Celtics await the Mavericks in game
00:25number one of the 2024 NBA Finals inside TD Garden on Thursday?
00:31JY, let's start with one big change for Boston, presumably on his way back.
00:36That is Kristaps Porzingis, KP, back at practice over the weekend as a full participant.
00:43We haven't seen him since early in the opening round against Miami.
00:47We thought maybe we would see him return to the Eastern Conference Finals.
00:51The Celtics, one and four, they didn't really need Porzingis out there.
00:55What does Kristaps Porzingis bring to Boston that we haven't truly seen throughout this
01:01NBA playoff run?
01:03Well, number one, more than everyone's talking about, KP, is his ability to block shots.
01:08I mean, that's your rim protector.
01:11That's your guy that protects the rim and allows you defensively, let's be honest, Ben,
01:16to get up into people's spaces and take away the three-point shot and funnel players into
01:20the lane.
01:21Al Horford, love him, has had a great career, but that's not Al's game.
01:26So I think getting KP back allows you to have that rim protection there, and then also the
01:31ability to stretch the floor.
01:33Obviously, one of the best shooting big men, he can bring the ball, he can come outside,
01:38which then on the flip side brings Gafford and Lively, two guys that are good defenders
01:43around the rim.
01:44It brings them away from the basket as well.
01:47So having KP is key and critical to what could be the 18th title for the Boston Celtics.
01:53They need KP to play well.
01:55It's going to be an interesting spot for KP.
01:57It'll be the first time he's in a championship run like this, going against a team that he
02:02was, you know, the Knicks traded him to Dallas to be the sidekick for the Lucas Dodgers.
02:08It obviously did not play well, but KP is going to be a critical point in this series,
02:13and lucky for Boston and for KP.
02:16He got himself a little bit of rest, should be able to get a lot of the kinks out this
02:20weekend practice before game one on Thursday night.
02:24Game number one, as you said, Coach, Thursday night, a six-point advantage here right now
02:28for the Boston Celtics over the Dallas Mavericks, and a total that's listed at 214.5.
02:33Now we talked about it earlier in the show, some of the betting tendencies here from the
02:36public through the FanDuel Sportsbook, 77% of the tickets currently coming in on the
02:40Mavericks.
02:41So if we're lining up this series with this long of a layoff, what are we actually going
02:45to get out of game number one from these two teams?
02:48Well, you're going to probably see, if you're Dallas, you're going to try and get your two
02:54main guns, especially Lucas Dodgers, off to a hot start, and the chess match is really
02:59going to be who guards Luke and Kyrie on the flip side, who guards Tatum and Brown.
03:03I fully expect that Drew Holliday should be guarding Lucas Dodgers, and then I would go
03:09ahead and put Derek White on Kyrie Irving.
03:12On the flip side, P.J. Washington should be guarding Jason Tatum, and Derek Jones
03:16Jr. should be guarding Jalen Brown.
03:18So to me, that's the intriguing thing looking at off the bat for Dallas is, can your two
03:23guys take advantage of their matchups?
03:27Drew Holliday and Derek White, where we did say I said it wrong last week, they were second
03:32team All-NBA defensive.
03:34But two of the better guards.
03:35It'll be very interesting to see what happens if I am Jason Kidd and I have Luca being guarded
03:41by Drew Holliday.
03:43I may go first side of the floor with Kyrie Irving, let him come off the first action
03:47first, because I think he's got more of the advantage, versus Derek White, then see if
03:52you can create some kind of help opportunities, and then look for the kickout.
03:55So you should be looking at, for me, honestly, game number one, maybe Kyrie Irving assists,
03:59because he may have to be the facilitator early on in game number one.
04:03Six points in favor of Boston, but so far now, in their seven home playoff games that
04:10we have seen throughout these NBA playoffs, make that eight home NBA playoff games throughout
04:16this postseason run.
04:17This is the shortest spread, only the second time they have not been booked as a double
04:21digit favorite inside TD Garden.
04:24So JY, we saw a little bit of odds movement in terms of how the oddsmakers expect this
04:29series to play out.
04:31Frankly, a little bit more competitive than we initially anticipated.
04:35But with that being said, the Celtics remain a hefty favorite, minus 220 to a number 18.
04:42That is Larry O'Brien trophy number 18 for this Boston Celtics organization.
04:48On Friday, we asked you, after the Mavericks won the Western Conference Finals in only
04:53five games, what was your NBA Finals prediction, and you gave us Dallas in six.
05:00Does it remain that way after a weekend of thought, and a couple more days until game
05:05number one?
05:06Well, my late mother, in her Panamanian voice, used to say, that's my story, and I'm sticking
05:13to it.
05:14And I am sticking to it.
05:15Mom, you'll be very happy I'm doing that.
05:17I'm going with Dallas in six.
05:20I think people talk to me about Dallas in seven.
05:23I think it would be incredibly difficult to win a game seven in the Boston, in the TD
05:29Bank Garden versus Celtics.
05:32So I like Dallas in six games.
05:34I think it's imperative that they get off to a good start.
05:37So I know there's plays you could take it, like for instance, you know, Dallas to win
05:41game one, and then to win the series is something that I'm looking at.
05:47That is at plus 400.
05:48So if you get a little bit more better odds, if you want to try and take it that way, I
05:52think they got to get at least a 1-1 split coming out of Boston.
05:57I think game one is the game you look at, because you have to, one, worry about the
06:02rustiness of Porzingis in game number one.
06:04And also the first time Dallas will be, I mean, Boston will be playing a team at full
06:09strength and with rest.
06:12That is the other thing you need to look at.
06:13I do think, even though it's a plus six and a half right now for Dallas Mavericks, I will
06:18play the plus six and a half, and I will sprinkle the money line that they win game number one.
06:25So J.Y., as you get ready for game number one.
06:29Right there on the minute mark.
06:30Literally.
06:3237, 38.
06:33Yeah.
06:34That's very tough.
06:35Always very tough.
06:36So J.Y., as we get ready for game number one, three days away.
06:41You have Dallas in six.
06:43The Mavericks, I would then assume, have to win one of the first two in Boston.
06:47Do you think that's game one, or could it be game two?
06:51I think it's more of game one, Ben, because of the Porzingis effect of being rusty.
06:56I think you get a Dallas team that tries to throw a knockout punch early in game one,
07:01and they get a game right away to go up 1-0.
07:04If I think Dallas is going to win this series, I think it's important that they try and steal
07:07the first game.
07:09No hesitation on the other side of the break, as we'll have more from J.Y. in terms of the
07:15individual assessment.
07:16Who makes the biggest mark on the 2024 NBA Finals, wins the MVP award.
07:21Find out next.
07:22The 2024 NBA Finals begins on Thursday.
07:26We have showed you the series outright odds, where the Celtics are a minus-220 favorite
07:31to win championship number 18.
07:33Dallas enters as the underdog at plus-184.
07:37The reason I mention those odds is because it directly correlates to how the Finals MVP
07:42might play out.
07:43Jason Tatum, an odds-on favorite at minus-115.
07:48Luka Doncic, second-best number at 2-1, only 16 cents away from his individual price from
07:55that of his team to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy this season.
08:00But it wasn't Jason Tatum, J.Y., winning the Eastern Conference Finals MVP hardware.
08:06It was his teammate, Jalen Brown.
08:09So with the Celtics being a minus-220 favorite, let's say Boston makes good on that number,
08:14wins Larry O'Brien Trophy number 18.
08:17Who wins the NBA Finals MVP?
08:19That's a tough one, because I think everybody would expect it and hope it would be Jason
08:25Tatum being the best player on the best team all year.
08:29But let's be honest, guys.
08:31If you look at the 2022 NBA Finals, a series in which Boston was up two games to one, up
08:38I think three or four minutes left to go in the fourth quarter when Marcus Smart, God
08:42bless his soul, took one of the worst shots I've ever seen, and the game and the series
08:45completely flipped, Jalen Brown was the best player for the Celtics that series.
08:50So to me and Jalen Brown, who was the Eastern Conference Finals Larry Bird MVP, I would
08:57lean more to Jalen Brown, to be honest with you, because I just think Tatum could go through
09:03periods of time where he could have stinkers.
09:05I also think the fact that this moment becomes too big for Derek Jones Jr. and the fact that
09:10does he get a little bit too aggressive and allow Jalen Brown to get to the foul line
09:14and earn free points.
09:15I honestly trust P.J. Washington a little bit more as a defender, to be honest with
09:21you, and it's also going to depend on how the game is called by officials, and that's
09:24going to be a big topic of it, how they allow particularly Derek Jones Jr. to play aggressively
09:32defensively.
09:33So if you're asking me right now who I would take, if I'm taking the Celtics, I'm just
09:36going to take them to win the series.
09:37If it's MVP and you're one guy for the Celtics, I'm actually leaning more Jalen Brown because
09:41of the price of six to one.
09:44Let's take a look at these price points here at the Mandela Sportsbook for the top four.
09:47By the way, Jason Tatum now five cents better, five cents worse, depending on which way you're
09:51betting it.
09:52A minus 120 price here to win an MVP, Luka Doncic two to one, Jalen Brown six to one,
09:57and Kyrie Irving at 20 to one.
09:58Coach, the reason I brought up the top four is we're expecting unbelievable series performances
10:03out of those guys.
10:04Let's just say this, one of those four guys doesn't win it here, which means we started
10:09Derek White at a 36 to one.
10:11If there is a chance for a long shot winner of the MVP here in the finals, which we have
10:16seen in the past, who could that guy be?
10:19Honestly, Kirby Porzingis at 50 to one.
10:24Because of his ability to shoot the ball from three, to be an elite rim protector and block
10:29shots and rebound the ball.
10:31Gotta remember folks, he should be around the basket as well.
10:35So that should be a little bit of a sleeper pick.
10:36I know he probably will not ever be a big rebounder.
10:39It's never been his thing, but he's 19 to one to lead the series in rebounds.
10:43Remember, he's going to guard Derek Lively and Daniel Gafford, both of them should be
10:47at the dunk spot.
10:48So that should be a play to think about.
10:51I think it could be Porzingis, a guy that could stretch the floor, knock down some threes,
10:55and load up your defense to stop both Tatum and Brown, and someone gets loose, and maybe
11:00Gafford and Derek Lively get caught around the basket watching the ball, and Porzingis
11:07can go off 50 to one.
11:09Porzingis, very intrigued by it, guys.
11:11All right, Dallas in six, JY's official prediction for the 2024 NBA Finals.
11:17So I ask you one final follow-up question.
11:20If the Dallas Mavericks win the NBA championship, does anybody not name Luka Doncic win the
11:26NBA Finals MVP?
11:28Ben, North Jersey, stand up.
11:35Kyrie Irving, 20 to one.
11:41I know, I may be drinking the Kyrie Kool-Aid, but I just, guys, I just feel like for the
11:46first time in his career, he's not talking anything crazy, he's just playing, and I think
11:53if the fact of Drew Holiday getting loading up on Luka, I think Kyrie's got a good match
12:00on him versus Derek White.
12:02I think Kyrie gets loose, he's going to have the ball in his hands a lot, maybe first side
12:06of the floor.
12:07Kyrie Irving, 20 to one to win the MVP.
12:14All right, quick, quick follow-up question then.
12:16Luka Doncic, who's the odds-on favorite to still lead this series in scoring, does he
12:20do that, and then Kyrie can win MVP?
12:24I think he does, but it's going to be close.
12:26It's going to be about what else he does, and big shot moments are Kyrie's thing.
12:30Remember, he did win a championship with a big shot in the last minute.
12:35Big shot moments.
12:37J.Y., in that fashion, fade away to the break.
12:40Hour three, up next.

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