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00:00After a very long layoff, game number one, night number one of
00:05the 2024 NBA Finals has finally arrived tonight inside TD
00:11Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. It's the Celtics
00:15in the hunt for championship number 18. That would be a
00:18record for the most all-time in a history of the association
00:22host the Dallas Mavericks into their third ever NBA Finals.
00:26The first appearance into the championship series for Dallas
00:29as an organization since they won the Larry O'Brien trophy
00:33back in 2011. Donnie, we have waited. It has been seven days
00:39without an actual NBA playoff game since the Mavericks took
00:42care of the Timberwolves in only five games of the Western
00:45Conference Finals exactly a week ago. Boston hasn't played
00:49since Memorial Day Monday after sweeping the Indiana Pacers
00:53in the Eastern Conference Finals and on this day of the opening
00:57night of the 2024 NBA Finals. Here is the line for game
01:02number one. The Celtics will enter as a six and a half point
01:06home favorite. The over understands at 215 and a hook.
01:10There will be plenty of breakdowns and previews coming
01:13your way throughout these next two and a half hours to get
01:16you set for the NBA Finals. But DRS, we have finally arrived.
01:20What are your impressions of the numbers for game number one?
01:24Looks pretty strong for the Boston Celtics here being a
01:26favorite of close to seven points at home. We know how
01:28dominant the Boston Celtics have been at home this season
01:31and rightfully so. They have been decent in the playoffs at
01:33home. They just finished off that sweep against the Pacers,
01:36but they did lose back-to-back game number twos on their home
01:38court in their first two rounds. We'll see if that holds up
01:41because if you are the Mavericks, you got to get in and
01:43steal one in Boston before you head back to Dallas to shift
01:46back that home court advantage. But also, when we handicap
01:49these situations, we talked about this ad nauseum and we
01:52had a lot of time to get ready for this game, but I still
01:54have in my mind, rest versus rust and both. It's not as
01:58exciting like, well, one team had three days off, one team
01:59had 19 days off, right? It's both about equal here. Both of
02:03these teams will be rested and ready, but the problem is
02:05going to be is sometimes when you take players out of their
02:08normal NBA routine, which they've been following all the
02:10way since back in October and you place them back in an
02:13environment where it's not even just, hey, we took a week off
02:15for the Olympic break and we're back on a random Thursday
02:18night in February to play the Charlotte, you know, Charlotte
02:21or New Orleans at this point. No, this is the NBA Finals.
02:24This is the biggest spotlight of your career. And last time
02:26I checked here, the Dallas Mavericks, when's the last time
02:29they won a championship with the players on their team? And
02:31also you take a look at the Boston Celtics, same thing. You
02:33could be set across. This is a big spot environment in game
02:36number one, right out of the break. Could we get a lower
02:38scoring first quarter? Slowness into it as these two teams
02:41seal it out. That's what I'm worried about the most here
02:43entering into game number one. It is the age-old debate rest
02:47versus rust, but both teams have been off for at least seven
02:50days. I actually think the team that had the less, the least
02:53amount of time off being the Dallas Mavericks is the
02:56beneficiary, not because they had a shorter amount of time
02:59off or they feel a little bit fresher because it's a week,
03:02but Luka Doncic, who by all accounts has been slightly
03:05hobbled, yet brilliant throughout this NBA postseason,
03:08got some much-needed time to figure things out with that
03:11knee, but you could make a similar argument, I guess, for
03:14the Celtics and Kristaps Porzingis. Again, plenty of
03:17previews specifically for game number one and the numbers to
03:20know to start the NBA Finals tonight coming your way over
03:23these next two plus hours, but Donnie and I dive in to an
03:27NBA Finals pick six. We often give you a pick six throughout
03:32times in the sports calendar throughout a year. Oftentimes
03:36it's for a National Football League weekend. Here's how the
03:39pick six works this time around, who we think ends up as
03:43the NBA champion, what the exact series score is going to
03:46be, who wins that NBA Finals MVP award, an X-factor that could
03:51dictate the outcome of this series, our favorite series
03:55leader bet, who's going to lead the series in points, assists,
03:58three, so on and so forth, and a series special with some plus
04:02money to know as well. Donnie, right side, kick us off. When
04:06all is said and done, between the Boston Celtics and the
04:08Dallas Mavericks, who goes home as an NBA champion? The NBA
04:13champions should be the Boston Celtics. They're favored to
04:15do so. They have home court advantage. They were the best
04:17team wire-to-wire in the NBA. Nothing in the playoffs has
04:20shown us that they wouldn't be able to compete against the
04:22Dallas Mavericks. They were down one of their starters, still
04:24easily able to pound teams in five games and also four games
04:28with that final sweep there of the Pacers. So as I'm lining
04:31this series up, do I want it to go long? Absolutely. Do I
04:34really enjoy watching Luka Doncic play and Kyrie Irving?
04:37Phenomenal stuff here. So entertainment purposes, I'm
04:40looking forward to it. But the better team here, the deeper
04:42team, the team with home court advantage, the team that's
04:44favored, that's the Boston Celtics. They should be able to
04:47win the NBA championship here. I agree with you, DRS. I bet
04:51the Celtics on March the 20th at a plus 220 price to win the
04:55NBA championship this season. As I was starting to see how
04:58the Eastern Conference laid out, I didn't think it would be
05:00as easy for the C's as we saw throughout this NBA postseason,
05:05but it made a lot of sense that Boston was going to win the
05:07East and at least be here in the NBA Finals. So I had that
05:11cash-out or hedge-out opportunity. I do have a little
05:14bit of investment then on the Dallas Mavericks, just to cover
05:17my behind, if you know what I am saying. But ultimately, I
05:20do believe it is going to be the Boston Celtics. I think
05:22this series can really be boiled down to one main ingredient,
05:26Boston, the better overall team, Dallas, the better overall
05:30superstar, best overall player in Luka Doncic, maybe better
05:34duo with Doncic and Irving versus Tatum and Brown. But
05:38ultimately, I believe the balance and the depth at this
05:41stage and an NBA Finals will be too much for the Boston Celtics.
05:45We have seen a slight bit of movement for the lines for game
05:48number one. The Celtics opened as a six-point favorite total
05:51at 214 and a hook. The over-under is up by a point. We have
05:55added on the hook to the spread in favor of the C's and we've
05:59seen five cents of movement in those outright prices you just
06:02saw, minus 220 when this series was determined, minus 225
06:06now in Boston's favor. So we both think it will be the Celtics,
06:11but in how many games?
06:13I think this is going to go long, right? So game six, you're
06:16probably looking at and I think if I think Boston is going to
06:18win it, where is it hard to usually win late in the series?
06:21A lot of pressure. That's going to be on the road. So if I
06:23would say to myself, I do think the Celtics would win this.
06:26It's kind of tough for me to say in six. Now, maybe five games
06:29could be possible. But if I'm looking for a longer series,
06:32which I think does happen, I don't think he gets done in
06:34five. So I'm going to go ahead with the Celtics in seven games
06:37here to win it. And how much fun would that be to get a full
06:39seven-game series to watch this play out? And I'm sure one
06:42of those superstars on the Celtics will be able to rise to
06:44the occasion on their home court. So I'm going to go Boston
06:47four to three in the series at a plus 340 price.
06:51So DRS, I actually think both teams will get a win on the
06:54road. Each team will have at least one win on the road
06:57throughout the NBA Finals. And Boston is actually a perfect
07:016-0 straight up away from TD Gordon where they have had the
07:04home floor advantage all postseason long throughout this
07:07playoff run. So give me Boston in six at plus 470, third
07:12shortest number for how this NBA Finals is ultimately determined.
07:17More with our NBA Finals pick six next. We continue our 2024
07:21NBA Finals pick six to go all around the championship series
07:26to find you some numbers you need to know. And those numbers
07:29and odds, of course, associated with how we think this series
07:32is playing out. So both Donnie and I believe the Boston Celtics
07:36win championship number 18 when all is said and done in the
07:40NBA Finals. DRS thinks it's season seven. I think it's the
07:43Celtics in six. So we both believe Boston is victorious
07:48and the NBA Finals MVP is coming from this Celtics organization
07:53who wins the hardware.
07:55Yeah, it's it's funny you say that too because typical me
07:57I probably think, I don't think Luka Doncic can win the MVP
08:00and I pulled off these highlights previously here where
08:02I had the all-star game MVP and I picked the other team to
08:05win and actually landed exactly that way. So sometimes you
08:08get crazy and win but we're right here. You can't go ahead
08:10and say if I think the Celtics is going to win. Let me see
08:13how amazing Luka Doncic is going to be in the series.
08:15So it's pretty easy for me. It's Jason Tatum at a minus 125
08:18price. The biggest superstars got to step up in those biggest
08:20moments and none bigger than this moment for Jason Tatum.
08:24Now, there is a part of me that says, well, Donnie, you're
08:26going to bet Jason Tatum to win. That means you're rooting
08:28for the Celtics, which is tough. But again, you have to separate
08:30the fandom from the actual money you believe you can make
08:33on a certain game or a series. But having said that, if the
08:36Celtics did lose and Tatum didn't play well, this offseason
08:40would be so incredible to watch in Boston with all the heat
08:43the Celtics would take as being the best team that can never
08:46get over the hump and continuously chokes in the biggest
08:48moments here. But I do think the Celtics get over the hump
08:51and a big reason is going to be why Jason Tatum is going to
08:53have a really good final series. That's the expectation.
08:57You are spot-on. If Boston falls short once again of an NBA
09:01championship with this core, led by the Jays, Jason Tatum
09:05and Jalen Brown, you would have to think there are sweeping
09:08changes coming to the seas at a certain point this summer.
09:12But like you, I don't believe that happens. And like you,
09:14in a narrative-defining series for Jason Tatum, in a narrative
09:19award that is given out, which is the finals MVP, I think Tatum
09:23takes home the award. Jalen Brown got the Eastern Conference
09:27Finals MVP award, Tatum gets the NBA Finals MVP award.
09:32And it's not like Tatum was atrocious against Indiana.
09:35He scored 23 or more in all four games. He had 36 and a half,
09:40twice of the games against the Pacers. It's just that Jalen
09:43Brown hit the game-tying shot, descended to OT in game number
09:46one, had a 40-point performance in game number two, and was
09:50great down the stretch in that closeout game in game number
09:54four. So Jalen Brown got the edge, not this time around. If
09:58the Boston Celtics win the NBA Championship, Jason Tatum will
10:02win the NBA Finals MVP. Who is our X-Factor for this NBA Championship
10:08Series? Drew Holiday for me. So if we take a look at an X-Factor,
10:12how's he going to be able to impact the game? One of those
10:14players that's been there, done that before, an NBA veteran,
10:17but more importantly, plays very good defense. And so if we're
10:20looking towards offensive scoring, we understand Jalen Brown
10:23and Jason Tatum are going to do the majority of that. But when
10:25you take a look at that defensive side, just as important,
10:27if not maybe even more important than the scoring, is slowing
10:30down the two superstars of the Dallas Mavericks. So if you're
10:33going to take a look at Kyrie Irving, maybe hold him to under
10:35his season points average, and doing the same thing with Luka
10:38Doncic, that's going to help you win an NBA Championship just
10:41as much as scoring 30 points a game. The X-Factor for me, not
10:45on the offensive end, but on the defensive end, it's Drew Holiday.
10:49I think it's a really fair point, DRS. Drew Holiday is who I
10:52had in there initially, then I changed my answer to Derek White.
10:55And here's why I'm going with Derek White, but I think Drew
10:58Holiday makes a lot of sense on the defensive end of the floor.
11:01The reason I think Boston is victorious against Dallas in
11:04this NBA Finals is because of the balance in depth that the
11:08Celtics possess. The better team will win the championship
11:12versus the better superstar in Luka Doncic. Derek White has
11:16attempted eight or more threes in 11 of the 14 playoff games
11:21that Boston has played so far. His three points props tonight
11:25is two and a half, and the over isn't even all that juiced at
11:28minus 128. The volume is there for Derek White to hit three,
11:32four, five threes throughout every game in this NBA Finals,
11:36and that I think is a big difference. The depth of Boston,
11:40having those key role guys who are darn good, like a Derek
11:43White, like a Drew Holiday. In fact, Kristaps Porzingis
11:47returning as well. Derek White gets my nod. Series leader
11:52DRS. What was your best bet there?
11:55Yeah, you know what? Let's have some fun with this. Sometimes
11:56you go for a lower price point. I wanted to go for a higher
11:58price point, and I do expect a lot of motivation to be on the
12:01side of Kyrie Irving, but also one of those guys where you
12:04have to get the rest of the offense in the flow along with
12:06your own. Kyrie Irving, series leader in assists. How about
12:10this? At a 16 to 1 price. So Kyrie delivering the goods to
12:14the other players on wide open three-point shots. Because how
12:16many times do you see this, right? We know we have to slow
12:19down Donchett and Irving. A lot easier said than done. A lot
12:21of guys are going to have wide open books here. If they can
12:23knock down those shots, you'll get a lot of assists. Give me
12:25Kyrie, 16 to 1.
12:27We'll wrap up our 2024 NBA Finals pick six when our number
12:32two begins on the other side of the break. Live right here on
12:35this Thursday on The Early Line. Finally, for the 2024 NBA
12:39Finals, after a full week without a single NBA playoff
12:43game, the championship series starts tonight inside TD
12:46Garden in Boston. Between the Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks
12:51on what has already been a busy and chaotic morning in the
12:55association with the report, the LA Lakers are targeting
12:58UConn's Dan Hurley as their next head coach. The NBA told
13:03us, DRS, you get a week with nothing. Start filling. Start
13:07talking storylines and narratives for the NBA Finals.
13:10And then on game day Thursday, everything. The levy breaks
13:14and we have all of the headlines we need around the association.
13:19And by the way, if you are the NBA and you're supposed to
13:21be correlating this, and I think sometimes in the NFL, they
13:23do this on purpose. Why wasn't this story reported back on
13:27Monday so we can get a lot of traction out of it here? Like
13:30we had nothing going on in the NBA and that you want to plant
13:33a story at basically 7 a.m. East Coast the morning before
13:37the NBA Finals has started. That's bad content people. You
13:40need to get this story out. And also who gets the okay to
13:44give that out early morning? Like why was that the thought
13:46process? Like, you know what? We've been cooking this story
13:48up because you know, a bunch of everybody else where you're
13:51talking about, let's wait on the NFL where you get the tampering
13:53stuff here. Obviously, no tampering in NBA action when you're
13:57trying to get a head coach, but they didn't just pick up the
13:59phone last night, Ben, at 3 a.m. Like, you know what? Great
14:02idea. Would love to be a Lakers coach. All right, let's put
14:04the game plan together. This had to be going on for at least
14:06a few days. The fact that it broke this morning was kind
14:09of interesting to me. The skeptic inside of me would say
14:13that the NBA has been off for a week. It is game number one
14:17on the Disney family of networks tonight on ABC of the NBA
14:22Finals ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski is the one to tweak this
14:26out this morning. Try to build the enthusiasm all day long
14:31to stay on those TV networks where what also is so funny
14:34to me is tonight on the broadcast of game number one,
14:37JJ Reddick, the guy that was floated by Sham Sharania as
14:40the next head coach of the LA Lakers just two days ago.
14:46Fascinating stuff all day long for game number one of the
14:502024 NBA Finals. We continue to give you picks here for this
14:56NBA championship series. I asked Donnie who his series leader
14:59was before the break. He took a big plus money price 16 to
15:031 on Kyrie Irving to lead the NBA Finals in assists. I
15:07actually go with a minus money price that I think is worth
15:10the payment minus 180 for Luka Doncic to lead the NBA Finals
15:14in scoring. The reason I think it's worth the payment is
15:17because I believe even in a series defeat Luka Doncic is
15:22going to score the most points in this NBA championship
15:25series. Why do I say minus 180 is worth the price? Well,
15:28let's just compare based on what we know from the odds
15:31perspective game by game throughout this NBA Finals. Luka
15:35Doncic has the highest points prop tonight at 31 and a half.
15:39That is four more points than the next closest competitor.
15:42That's Jason Tatum for the Boston Celtics. One of the
15:46great things that has popped up here DRS on the FanDuel
15:49Sportsbook throughout this NBA postseason head-to-head
15:52specials where you can bet players against each other in
15:56terms of points or rebounds or whatever it might be in a
15:59certain prop in stat category on each and every night in
16:03the Association. So there is that match bet between Luka
16:06Doncic and Jason Tatum the two guys that have the best prices
16:10to leave the NBA Finals in scoring and Luka is a minus
16:14225 outright favorite to have more points tonight. If that's
16:19going to be the case throughout the NBA Finals, then the
16:22minus 180 for Luka Doncic to lead the series is really not
16:26all that bad in my opinion.
16:28No, it's not all that bad and also like we're not let's take
16:31up the environment of we're just going to go handicap and
16:33use analytics involved. You take a look at the Boston Celtics
16:35the way they're built as a team on a night-to-night basis.
16:37It could be Tatum. It could be Jalen Brown and maybe Derek
16:40White as we like to say gets hot from three-point range and
16:42steals one with I don't know 25 points in a game. The one
16:45thing that we do look at the Dallas Mavericks on a
16:46night-to-night basis. We're not saying the way they win the
16:49series will be nice to PJ Washington stepped up tonight
16:51and maybe Kyle. No, you actually have to have an unbelievable
16:54performance. Let's just say it goes seven games. Luka's got
16:57to be around 30 points every single one of those games for
17:00Dallas to compete and that's not to say that Dallas is a bad
17:02basketball team. That's just the way they're built with the
17:04superstar player. Not the way the Celtics are built where a
17:07couple guys can actually beat you. So that minus 180 price
17:10makes some sense because why he's the favorite to have the
17:12ball in his hand when it matters most and at the end of games
17:15you say, wow, great performance by the Mavericks has scored
17:17113 points. What did Luka get 17? That's not happening. So
17:21I agree with you with that price point and also the player.
17:24We didn't really talk about it in the NBA Finals MVP
17:27conversation both you and I giving the nod to Jason Tatum,
17:31but I do believe there's a world the Celtics win the NBA
17:33championship and Tatum is not the NBA Finals MVP for whatever
17:37reason. I do not believe there is a world the Dallas Mavericks
17:40win the NBA championship and Luka don't just does not win
17:43the NBA Finals MVP award. By the way, some drastic movement
17:46in that market from just earlier this week 7 to 1 now on
17:49Jalen Brown third shortest price 18 to 1 on Kyrie Irving.
17:54Those two guys were tied. Oh, no, never mind. That was
17:56series scoring leader, right 12 to 1 yesterday. My fault got
18:00a lot of the content mixed up here as we've had a full week
18:03off from the NBA. What should have been the final component
18:07of this pick six our favorite series storyline for the NBA
18:11Finals is our favorite series special some big plus money
18:15out there in a fun Market Donnie. What got your attention?
18:19Yeah, we'll go again a plus 650 price and for keeping in
18:21that market of I do think Kyrie Irving can lead this series
18:24in assist. Well, he's probably going to have to have one
18:27or two monster games in order to do that and monster not
18:29meaning you got to get to 15. How about double digit assist
18:32here and it's Kyrie Irving to record 10 plus assist in any
18:35game here in the NBA Finals at a plus 60 plus 650 price.
18:39As I said, sometimes you're just trying to equate to what
18:41you think the Boston Celtics are going to try to do to the
18:44Dallas Mavericks and having said that yes, every team is
18:46like let's slow down the two superstars and force their B
18:48players to beat you but kind of that's usually the way it
18:51plays out. If you can get some good open looks from other
18:54players Kyrie Irving's that have that basketball in his
18:55hands a lot. If other guys can make open shots. He should
18:58be able to record one game of getting 10 assists. It's not
19:01multiple games. It's not averaging tennis is the game
19:03one game tennis is a plus 650 price. I'll take that.
19:07I think if he's going to lead the series in assist, there's
19:10going to be multiple games. He has double digit assist would
19:13be my estimation knowing Luka Doncic is out there and Jason
19:18Tatum who has been really good with the ball in his head as
19:21you would expect superstar ball in his hand quite often, even
19:24if he's not scoring he's facilitating Jason Tatum five
19:27plus assists in all games of the NBA Finals at a five to one
19:31number Tatum has had five plus assists in eight of the nine
19:35games since the start of the second round set against
19:38Cleveland. I'll take my chances in this series that I think
19:42is going to be longer than the Celtics have seen throughout
19:44this NBA postseason, but I don't mind Jason Tatum having
19:48five plus times in every game here in the NBA Finals a
19:52complete imbalanced effort for a complete imbalanced team on
19:56track for the Celtics winning an NBA championship.