• 4 months ago
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A recent nationwide AT&T cell service outage reignited the conversation surrounding the potential impacts of intense solar flares and bursts of radiation. NOAA Space Scientist Rob Steenburgh discusses what to expect as we head towards a solar maximum.

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Transcript
00:00Recently, hundreds of thousands of AT&T customers had their cell phone service knocked out by
00:07a nationwide outage for over 10 hours before it was restored.
00:12While initial reports included the possibility of a solar flare as being the potential cause,
00:16it was ultimately decided that the outage was unrelated to this natural occurrence.
00:20Regardless, the event reignited the conversation about the impacts of intense solar flares
00:25and bursts of radiation.
00:27Joining us now to give a little bit more perspective on these solar flares and their potential
00:31impact on the Earth is Rob Steenberg, space scientist with NOAA's Space Weather Prediction
00:36Center.
00:37Rob, thanks for coming on.
00:40Thank you for having me.
00:41So first off, what exactly is a solar flare?
00:45Well, solar flare is a big, violent release of energy on the sun's surface, and it sends
00:55out energy, and that energy can be intercepted here at Earth.
01:01And it does this through radio waves and visible light, x-rays, and so on.
01:06Can you tell us about this recent outburst of this huge solar flare that scientists say
01:12were the most powerful since 2017?
01:15Sure thing.
01:16Yeah, it was an X6 flare.
01:21So our flares are rated on a scale.
01:25The lowest or most common flares are called C, and that's easy to remember.
01:30M are moderate flares.
01:32X are the extreme flares.
01:33So this was an X-class flare, and it's the largest X-class flare that we've seen.
01:40However, it's totally within the normal limits of what we'd expect in a solar cycle.
01:45What kind of issues can these large flares cause here on Earth?
01:50Can they impact frequencies, radios, navigation, things like that?
01:56They sure can.
01:58The biggest impact probably is the impact on radio communications that uses the layer
02:03of our atmosphere called the ionosphere.
02:07That ionosphere acts as a reflector of high-frequency radio transmissions.
02:13And this becomes a factor for aircraft traveling over the oceans.
02:18For instance, it can change what frequencies are available for the pilots to use to communicate
02:24with the controllers.
02:27That's one aspect.
02:29Another thing it can do is produce a solar radio burst, and those radio bursts, depending
02:33on the frequency they occur on and how strong they are, can disrupt communications as well
02:38on frequencies other than high frequencies.
02:42So they can affect even higher frequencies, UHF and VHF.
02:46That must be why some people thought that that recent AT&T outage might have been caused
02:51by a solar flare.
02:52But is this true?
02:55That's absolutely right.
02:56I think that's the idea that some people thought.
03:01However, flares typically only last for minutes to a few hours, unless you have subsequent
03:07flares afterwards.
03:10And we looked at the radio emissions from this flare and compared them to the cell phone
03:16frequencies.
03:17And there were no emissions on the cell phone frequencies that would be strong enough to
03:20cause a problem.
03:22So that was the first tip-off that we had that, hey, this is not space weather related.
03:29And later, AT&T published a statement that basically said that.
03:33It was basically a malfunction of some process they were carrying out.
03:40Once I learned it wasn't space weather, I was back to work looking at space weather.
03:44It's not us.
03:48What's the predictions for forecasts or more large-scale solar flares?
03:52Should anyone be worried about these maybe upping in frequency over the next few years?
03:57Yes.
03:58Well, we're heading towards solar max.
04:00We expect to peak within probably the next year or two.
04:07And with that will come more flares.
04:09And we'll see more X-flares, I'm sure.
04:12We'll see more interference on high frequencies, which also affects amateur radio operators.
04:21And we'll see more of the events that cause geomagnetic storms.
04:25So with a flare, sometimes you get an ejection of the solar atmosphere.
04:29Part of the sun actually is blown off into outer space.
04:33And sometimes those can come to Earth.
04:35And when they do, those are the things that produce geomagnetic storms and give you an
04:39opportunity to see the northern lights.
04:42We call those coronal mass ejections or CMEs for short.
04:46And they're the things that trigger the geomagnetic storm.
04:48So we'll see more of those as well.
04:50A lot of topics covered.
04:51Thank you so much for breaking it all down for us, helping us laymen understand what
04:55happens out there in space.
04:56It was very helpful.
04:57So Rob Steenberg with NOAA, thank you.
05:01Thank you for having me.
05:02And yeah, we've got a whole team of people who do this every day.
05:05So we're watching out for you.
05:09We appreciate it.
05:10Thank you.

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