Saham Bank Jumbo Berguguran, Buy or Bye
IHSG jatuh hampir 1% di 0,99% ke level 6.764,175 sesi I Jumat (14/6). Pemberat datang dari IDX-Techno -1,93% dengan GOTO -1,92%. IDX-Finance -1,35% dengan BBNI -2,68%, BBRI -2,09%. IDX-Infra -1,19% dengan BREN -2,80%, TLKM -2,46%. Sementara rupiah mendekati level psikologis terlemah baru di Rp16.400/USD
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir variatif, dengan S&P 500 dan Nasdaq mencatat rekor penutupan tertinggi untuk sesi keempat berturut-turut, Kamis, karena saham teknologi memperpanjang reli.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir variatif, dengan S&P 500 dan Nasdaq mencatat rekor penutupan tertinggi untuk sesi keempat berturut-turut, Kamis, karena saham teknologi memperpanjang reli.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us.
00:03In this segment, we will review how the trading has been going today.
00:07The share price has dropped by more than 1%
00:11and has been traded at the level of 6,700.
00:14And we remind you again, you can still participate in the interactive WhatsApp
00:17at 0812.8788.723
00:22as shown on the television screen later.
00:25And now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Kiswoyo
00:28who is the Head of Investment at Nawasena Abipraya Investama.
00:33We will talk to Mr. Kiswoyo directly. Good afternoon. How are you, sir?
00:36Good afternoon.
00:38Thank you, Mr. Kiswoyo, for spending your time on IDX Channel.
00:42For the share price, Mr. Kiswoyo, again today,
00:45has experienced a deep correction of more than 1%.
00:48It has been traded at the level of 6,700.
00:51And this celebration also marks the lowest level,
00:56especially in terms of year-to-date, Mr. Kiswoyo.
00:59How is your analysis of the deep correction that has occurred
01:01throughout today's trading?
01:04To be honest, this is very terrible
01:07because the support level is 6,750 from the peak.
01:10As I said, the level of the stock is at 7,000.
01:13Below 6,500 to 6,750.
01:16And this is already at 6,726.
01:19So if it reaches the closing today,
01:23it will be around 9,000.
01:25If it can't go up to 7,500,
01:30it will go down to 6,500.
01:33And this is already very dangerous.
01:35Because below 6,500,
01:37the category is IASK has entered the bearish phase.
01:41This is something that should be very, very dangerous
01:44if it is technically like that.
01:46Okay, in the last half,
01:48Indekar Gasam Kabungan has experienced a deep enough correction, Mr. Kiswoyo.
01:51Earlier, from the topic of choice,
01:53we have delivered several developments,
01:56both domestically and internationally.
01:58Domestic, there are brands that have experienced a low auto-rejection several times.
02:02Then there was also Morgan Stanley earlier,
02:05lowering the stock price to become underweight.
02:07Then from the United States,
02:09Suku Bunga, inflation,
02:11then also the producer's price index.
02:13How is your analysis?
02:14The response from domestic market players
02:17and foreign investors who invest in Indonesia
02:20so that IASK has experienced
02:23quite a deep pressure throughout this week.
02:27One of the expectations that I can see
02:30is true, there are foreign investors who say they are underweight.
02:33So my experience throughout the course,
02:36if IASK is at the upper level,
02:38that is, approaching the price,
02:41or close to the price,
02:43there will be a recommendation to sell,
02:45or underweight, or expensive.
02:48That's true, IASK will go down.
02:50But if IASK has gone down like this,
02:52far from the highest price in the long run,
02:56in a situation like this,
02:58they suddenly release a sales effect,
03:00I think it's actually a bit strange.
03:02And this is an anomaly,
03:04but I see a positive sign.
03:06It means that ASIC is waiting for the time to buy.
03:09So if I say the bottom is already close.
03:12Why? Because it is impossible for ASIC to be sold
03:14in a panic market condition like this.
03:16Because we know that sales of blue chips,
03:18such as DRI, BCA, Mandiri, BB, Astra, Telkom,
03:21those are public stocks,
03:23more than 75% are held by ASIC.
03:25If they throw everything into the market,
03:27that's impossible, because the retail will not go up.
03:30Domestic will not go up.
03:32The rest of the goods will go down.
03:34They will lose too.
03:35So if I see the anomaly is
03:37when IASK is going down,
03:39the price is still below like this,
03:42and a resell effect appears,
03:44I still see it as a hope.
03:46For example, people say in the middle of darkness,
03:48we see a ray of light in front of us,
03:50waiting for the time to go there.
03:52Because as I said, it's always very low.
03:55Unless it appears above.
03:57If we are already close to the highest price,
03:59a resell effect appears.
04:00Okay, I'm really afraid of that.
04:02Okay, the point is, investors,
04:03you don't have to worry like that, sir.
04:05Keep a positive mind,
04:06and make the most of the weakness that occurs.
04:09That's right, Mr. Keswayo.
04:10That's right.
04:11So if you really want to buy good fundamental stocks
04:16at a low price,
04:17it's good like this.
04:18Okay.
04:21Yes, we will try to review, sir,
04:23the choice for the strategy, maybe,
04:26for good fundamental stocks.
04:28I want to go to Big Cap Banking first,
04:30where Sam Sam, Big Cap Banking today,
04:32has become a burden for Indekar Gasam Kabungan.
04:35Even BBRI has reached its lowest level since 2020.
04:39Let's go to BBRI first, Mr. Keswayo.
04:41Your analysis, 4190,
04:44weak at 2.78%.
04:46Where will it go?
04:48And what is the recommendation?
04:50Is the position already profitable, Mr. Keswayo?
04:53As I said, it's already close to the low.
04:56Because I see below 4150,
04:59especially below 4000,
05:01is a strong buy.
05:02Below 4000 is a strong buy.
05:03We buy and hold,
05:04the profit is amazing.
05:07Because we know that its hike is at level 6450.
05:10So from 4000,
05:12if it goes down,
05:13if it goes down below 4000,
05:15up to a hike of 6450,
05:17the chance is already around 20%.
05:20Sorry, 50%.
05:22So, if I say,
05:24if it goes down below 4000,
05:26and we buy below 4000,
05:28we hope to go up to 50%.
05:31At that time, it is level 6000,
05:33and the hike in the long run is 6450.
05:35And in my opinion, it is very logical
05:37that BBRD will go towards the hike again.
05:39So, I say, this is a chance for BBRD
05:41to buy with a 50% chance of profit.
05:44Usually, a stock like this is only 20%.
05:47We can get it, I guess.
05:49But this is 50%.
05:50So, I say it's very interesting.
05:52Okay.
05:534190 is weak at 2.78% today.
05:56For those who are stuck,
05:58can you average it down or increase the position?
06:00That's right.
06:01That's right.
06:02Especially below 4150.
06:04That's the average.
06:05If it's below 4000, just buy it again.
06:07Okay.
06:084190 for BBRD.
06:09Today, the biggest contributor
06:11to Lema Rindekar Gasam Kapungan.
06:13Is the strategy the same
06:15for other big cap banks?
06:17I want to go to BBRD first, sir.
06:195750.
06:20We had a chance to go to 5650 with Soyo.
06:23It's the same.
06:24The strategy is the same.
06:25If I look at this independent bank,
06:27it's at a level below 5500.
06:30If it's at the current level,
06:31it's actually interesting to buy.
06:33If it's below 5500,
06:35it's really a strong buy.
06:36Because if we look at the BRD hike,
06:38it's actually at the level of 7500.
06:40So if there's a 5500 number,
06:43it's actually almost 50%.
06:46It's a chance to do a funny hike.
06:47Even the independent bank should
06:49hopefully have a new hike this year.
06:51The area is around 8000-8500.
06:54So there's still a 50% chance
06:56in this independent bank.
06:59Whether it's at 5500 or below 5500,
07:02there's a big discount for BBRD.
07:04Today's closing is at 5750,
07:06which is 2.13%.
07:08What about BBNI, Mr. Akiswayo?
07:10For BBNI, I think it's also very interesting.
07:13There's a lot of discounts.
07:20I'm checking BBNI.
07:21If I'm not mistaken,
07:22how much is BBP1?
07:25I'm also checking, Mr. Akiswayo.
07:27If I'm not mistaken, BBP1 is...
07:291.11 times, sir.
07:31Yes.
07:32This is the cheapest BBP.
07:34As I said, it's worth buying.
07:37If I look at the graphic,
07:38if it goes below 4000,
07:40it's worth buying.
07:41But I hope it can be bought again at 4250.
07:44Because if we look at the hike,
07:46it's actually 6250.
07:48It's the same. It's actually 50%.
07:50Okay.
07:51This is almost a 50% chance.
07:54Unless it's BCA. BCA is different.
07:56Let's go straight to BBCA.
07:58Mr. Akiswayo seems to be able to handle BBCA.
08:01For today, it's more difficult
08:03compared to other big cap banks.
08:06What is your analysis for BBCA?
08:07Well, BCA's hike is actually 10,400.
08:11Yes, there are 10 hikes this year.
08:13So, BCA actually has a gap
08:15between the 8,000 to 8,500 area.
08:17So, interestingly,
08:18if it can go down to the gap
08:20up to 8,000,
08:22we can really be the biggest there.
08:25But as far as I can see,
08:27last year,
08:28it only went down to 8,500.
08:30Before it could reach 8,000, it went up.
08:32Yes.
08:33So, if BCA is below 9,000,
08:35we can do it.
08:36But it's not as big as BBI and BBNI.
08:40Because the hike is only 10,400.
08:42If it goes up to 8,000,
08:44it can only reach 20-30%.
08:47So, it's smaller and more difficult.
08:49Because the decline is not as deep as the other three.
08:52Okay.
08:53Today's closing is flat at 9,200.
08:55Can you repeat it again, sir?
08:57For the buy, what level is it?
08:59And the strong buy?
09:01Below 9,000, it's a buy.
09:03The strong buy is below 8,500.
09:05Okay, good.
09:06Where BCA also had an all-time hike
09:08at around 10,400.
09:10Are you also optimistic that a new hike level
09:12will be created again for BCA this year?
09:14Correct.
09:15Remember that I always say
09:17BCA is a closed bank.
09:19And the bank is always consistent
09:20from year to year to create a new hike.
09:22If this year it can't create a new hike
09:24to reach 10,400,
09:25next year it will definitely break through.
09:27Because the previous hike was lower.
09:29Okay.
09:30Outside of the financial sector,
09:32or the B-CAP bank,
09:34the infrastructure today also
09:36becomes a burden for the villagers.
09:38I want to go to Telkom.
09:40Mr. Kiswoyo, today,
09:41experienced a fairly deep correction.
09:434.23%, already at 2,720.
09:46Earlier, it was around 2,700 for Telkom.
09:50And the position around 2,700
09:52seems to be the weakest level
09:54in terms of year-to-date,
09:56and also in the last year,
09:58and also in the last three years for Telkom.
10:00What's your analysis?
10:02Correct.
10:03Telkom has a strong support
10:05from the 2,500 level.
10:07So if it goes down to below 2,500,
10:10it's like during the Corona era.
10:12And Telkom,
10:14from the industry point of view,
10:16is actually the most sunset
10:18compared to other sectors.
10:20Moreover, there is a starting competition.
10:22But I think the government will review
10:24whether Starlink is still operational,
10:26or not, and so on.
10:27But other than that,
10:28I'm still convinced that
10:30the growth of Telkom
10:32may not be there,
10:34but it's stagnant.
10:35Even if it's stagnant,
10:36the dividend is still big, I said.
10:37Just assume that the dividend
10:38is similar to the previous year.
10:39The previous year was relatively stable.
10:41Revenue, net profit, and dividend
10:43are almost stable.
10:44And from the telecommunications sector,
10:46compared to the competitors,
10:47other telecommunications operators,
10:48their net profit is the biggest.
10:50It's the most important for the dividend.
10:52It's also the healthiest.
10:54So I said, Telkom is very interesting.
10:56So maybe if Telkom
10:58goes down to below 2,500,
11:00it's like a kind of dividend play.
11:02Okay.
11:03So as long as they give a big dividend,
11:05it can return a reasonable price
11:07above Rp. 4,000.
11:08So it can be the same,
11:09it can be 50% too,
11:10as long as we talk about money.
11:12Indeed, from the business side,
11:13it's still a bit uncertain,
11:14but don't worry.
11:15If we talk about the background of telecommunications,
11:18Indonesia is in the telecom sector.
11:19So if we just assume that Telkom
11:21covers all the businesses,
11:22we don't even have IDX.
11:24So we can't communicate like this.
11:25Because the satellite that has it,
11:27the foreign optical cable also has it.
11:30Okay, today's closing at 2720,
11:32weakening at 4.23%.
11:34A big discount price for Telkom
11:36when the correction to Rp. 2,500.
11:39And again, the decision to invest
11:41is still in the hands of the shareholder, IDX.
11:45Thank you.