Nilai tukar rupiah menyentuh level terendah dalam empat tahun terakhir seiring menguatnya dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Mata uang Garuda sudah melemah 1,3 persen dalam sepekan dan 6,5 persen sepanjang 2024 ke level Rp16.394 per USD, terendah sejak awal April 2020 atau di masa pandemi Covid-19.
Pada Jumat pekan lalu, Bank Indonesia pun melakukan intervensi di pasar valuta asing untuk mempertahankan rupiah, dan berjanji untuk menggunakan kebijakan moneter untuk menstabilkan mata uang RI. Kepala Departemen Pengelolaan Moneter BI Edi Susianto mengatakan, penurunan nilai tukar rupiah pada Jumat lalu, terkait dengan ekspektasi bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) Federal Reserve (The Fed) akan mempertahankan suku bunga lebih tinggi lebih lama, serta kekhawatiran terhadap kebijakan fiskal pemerintah yang akan datang.
Pelemahan rupiah terjadi sepekan menjelang rapat kebijakan moneter Bank Indonesia (BI) pada pekan ini, yang diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga. Namun, karena nilai tukar rupiah berada di bawah tekanan, para analis tidak mengesampingkan potensi kenaikan suku bunga.
Pada Jumat pekan lalu, Bank Indonesia pun melakukan intervensi di pasar valuta asing untuk mempertahankan rupiah, dan berjanji untuk menggunakan kebijakan moneter untuk menstabilkan mata uang RI. Kepala Departemen Pengelolaan Moneter BI Edi Susianto mengatakan, penurunan nilai tukar rupiah pada Jumat lalu, terkait dengan ekspektasi bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) Federal Reserve (The Fed) akan mempertahankan suku bunga lebih tinggi lebih lama, serta kekhawatiran terhadap kebijakan fiskal pemerintah yang akan datang.
Pelemahan rupiah terjadi sepekan menjelang rapat kebijakan moneter Bank Indonesia (BI) pada pekan ini, yang diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga. Namun, karena nilai tukar rupiah berada di bawah tekanan, para analis tidak mengesampingkan potensi kenaikan suku bunga.
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TVTranscript
00:00Rupiah at the end of last week was closed at the level of 16,395 rupiah per US dollar, or about 0.15% daily, and that level has become the lowest level of rupiah against the dollar since April 2020.
00:26Rupiah at the end of last week was closed at the level of 16,395 rupiah per US dollar, or about 0.15% daily, and that level has become the lowest level of rupiah against the dollar since April 2020.
00:56Rupiah at the end of last week was closed at the level of 16,395 rupiah per US dollar, or about 0.15% daily, and that level has become the lowest level of rupiah against the dollar since April 2020.
01:14Previously, Indonesian Bank Governor Peri Warjewa said that the movement of Rupiah is still stable.
01:19Peri insisted that Rupiah's weakness is still preserved compared to a number of other countries' currencies.
01:24Peri said that the Indonesian Bank continues to be in the market to monitor the development of Rupiah and is ready to intervene if necessary.
01:32The Indonesian Bank is also ready to ensure that the dollar is preserved in the country.
01:44Yes, Mr. Mirsa, we will discuss our interesting topic today.
01:48Later, we will talk about the rise of Rupiah through Zoom with Mr. Rian Girianto,
01:53Economic Senior and Associate Faculty of the Indonesian Banking Services Institute.
01:58Good morning, Mr. Rian.
01:59Good morning, Mr. Pras.
02:01Yes, greetings, sir.
02:02Greetings.
02:03Yes, thank you for the opportunity.
02:05This is related to the Rupiah Depression.
02:08The Rupiah Depression continues to occur.
02:10And we know that the movement is already at US$16,300.
02:15If we look at it, over the course of a year, the Rupiah has fallen by 6%.
02:20Then it touched the lowest level, even in the last four years.
02:24What do you think, Mr. Rian?
02:25How is it related to our currency?
02:29First, I would like to say that the US dollar appreciation process is currently underway
02:37which is extraordinary.
02:42One of the global focus is that the Fed, the Central Bank of the United States,
02:49seems to be still determined to maintain the level of the Bunga Acuannya tribe
02:56around 5.25% to 5.5%.
03:01And that is at least until the end of this year.
03:04This morning, I just checked.
03:06There are two views, both from Federal Reserve Bank officials.
03:12The first one says, if inflation in the United States quickly touches the target number, which is 2%,
03:20there is a high possibility that the Fed will begin to cut the Bunga Acuannya tribe
03:25around 5.25% at their meeting in September this year.
03:31This is a progressive view.
03:35But the other view, which is more conservative,
03:40suggests that the Fed should be more careful in observing the external data
03:46that may occur in the coming months.
03:49So the second possibility, the speculation that arises,
03:52is that the Fed may reduce the Bunga Acuannya tribe by 25 basis points
03:57at the end of their last meeting this year, which is in December.
04:02And even that, the cumulative reduction will only happen,
04:06most likely, only once this year.
04:09This gives a signal that the attitude of the Fed,
04:13which is under the leadership of Jerome Powell, is still hawkish or still tight.
04:18Because they are very careful in observing the path of inflation in the future,
04:26we know that the inflation target in the United States is 2%,
04:30and the possibility of reaching that level will more or less be reached,
04:34at least by the end of 2025.
04:37So the journey is still long.
04:40Hire for longer is really a kind of global statement
04:45that many people believe, including perhaps in our place in Indonesia.
04:50That is the highlight that I can convey.
04:53Okay, still related to the US economy,
04:56it seems that there is an appreciation for the US dollar,
04:59so it is pressing our currency.
05:02On the other hand, there are still a number of parties
05:04who claim that the rupiah is still one of the best currencies in the world.
05:09If we compare it with other countries,
05:12what do you think? Is that statement true?
05:16That's right. So if we compare it with our peers,
05:21there are several countries that experience a sharper depreciation,
05:25such as South Korea.
05:27Then, if I'm not mistaken, there is Thailand.
05:30Moreover, Thailand is now also affected
05:33by local or domestic political issues
05:37related to former Prime Minister Thaksin, if I'm not mistaken,
05:42which then caused a new political crisis in Thailand.
05:46Then there are other currencies that are also under pressure,
05:51such as the Philippine peso, the Malaysian ringgit,
05:55and then Thailand, including the Korean won.
05:58In fact, some time ago,
06:01the sharpest depreciation of the currency was in the Japanese yen.
06:07In May last year, if I'm not mistaken,
06:10the depreciation was year-to-date, around 8%.
06:14So it's worse than our currency depreciation.
06:18But the note is that
06:20it means that our depreciation is still relatively better
06:24than our country's peers,
06:26but of course we can't just sit still like that.
06:30Well, the sectors that are affected by the depreciation of the Rupiah exchange rate,
06:35Rp. 16,300.
06:36Do you think this is still acceptable?
06:40Making the industry still struggle,
06:42even though there must be a business adjustment or something like that, Mr. Arian?
06:46This is an important note that we must consider.
06:48There are two scenarios, Mr. Pras.
06:51First, if the producers or our entrepreneurs
06:56have a dependency on steel or semi-finished goods from imports,
07:02then the output of the product is sold,
07:07the majority to the external market or global market,
07:11then of course, no matter how much Rupiah is depreciated,
07:14it's relatively not a problem.
07:16Because that's what we call natural hedging.
07:19But the second scenario that's not good is
07:23when the import component is so dominant,
07:26but the sales or marketing of the product
07:29is only sold domestically.
07:32This is what is called currency mismatch.
07:35Because the loan is in USD,
07:39or the purchase is in USD,
07:42but the revenue is in Rupiah.
07:45And that happens when the Rupiah is under pressure.
07:49Of course, this is not good for our importers,
07:53because they will experience a kind of forex loss.
07:57Of course, a solution such as value protection or hedging
08:04can be done by our entrepreneurs
08:07who have a dependency on imported materials that is quite dominant,
08:12for example, more than 50%.
08:15That's what I can tell you.
08:17Yes, Mr. Rian, but in your opinion,
08:19the readiness of the business world,
08:21which has a strong correlation with the movement of Rupiah trading,
08:24have they already done hedging,
08:26or do you think this increase is actually unpredictable?
08:31My guess is, first, this increase is unpredictable.
08:35I myself didn't expect our Rupiah to exceed Rp16,000
08:40if we talk about the beginning of last year.
08:43That's why at the beginning of last year,
08:46our Rupiah assumption was hit at Rp15,000.
08:49We can accept that kind of situation.
08:53But as time goes by,
08:56when it breaks at Rp15,500,
08:59we are also a bit surprised,
09:01but we can still accept it.
09:05But then the weakening becomes more and more
09:08and breaks through the psychological level of Rp16,000.
09:11We are all a bit shocked, a bit surprised,
09:14why that can happen.
09:16Again, the pressure arises mostly from external factors,
09:20namely when the Fed is still in a hawkish attitude,
09:24which also disturbs stability
09:27compared to the currency,
09:29especially in developing or emerging economies.
09:33Looking at the current situation,
09:35strategies or maybe mitigation measures
09:37that have been taken by the industry
09:39will be strong enough to withstand the pressure of Rupiah.
09:42As you said,
09:43there was a movement from inflation in the US at the end of 2025,
09:47then hawkish until the end of the year.
09:50This means that the pressure of Rupiah will continue
09:53at least until the end of the year, Mr. Rian.
09:56Yes, I agree.
09:57That's why businessmen and entrepreneurs
09:59really have to pay attention to the projection
10:02of the movement from the Rupiah currency,
10:05especially in the US dollar.
10:07And we also pay attention to the development
10:09of our peer currency,
10:12namely developing countries and Asia.
10:15Secondly, we also need to do some kind of strategy
10:18to protect the value in order to secure
10:21if it turns out later in the day
10:25when we have a falling debt,
10:27it turns out that the dollar is getting stronger,
10:30of course we can be in a safe condition
10:33because it is not corrected by the weakening of our Rupiah currency.
10:37The last approach, perhaps very conservative,
10:40maybe our business
10:42for the time being,
10:43maybe reduce the import components
10:47as far or as long as
10:50the substitution of domestic goods can be done
10:54with a quality that is more or less the same as
10:57if it has to come from abroad.
11:00Finally, of course, with our own awareness,
11:03we may have to reduce consumption
11:07for consumer goods,
11:09but it comes from abroad
11:11or we import consumer goods.
11:13Maybe we should reduce it,
11:15because of the need for a high dollar,
11:18both for productive needs or consumer needs,
11:22it will put pressure on our Rupiah currency.
11:25We know the law of economics,
11:27the currency is like a commodity,
11:30many people buy it,
11:32of course the pricing will increase.
11:34That is the law of the market.
11:36That's why we really have to be smart
11:42so we don't become followers.
11:45Okay.
11:46What about the government's strategy?
11:48Do we have to deal with the deficit
11:50or do we have other strategies?
11:52We will discuss it in the next segment.
11:54We will be back soon.
11:56See you in the next segment.
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15:20We will continue from the previous data.
15:23This is interesting.
15:25We are talking about a solution
15:27or a strategy that needs to be done immediately.
15:30Both the government and the business world.
15:32As we remember, we know that the reserve of deficit
15:35was used to flood our liquidity
15:38on how this dollar can remain stable.
15:41It was proven to be successful,
15:43but only for a few moments, Mr. Rian.
15:45Then there is a policy on export deficit.
15:48We are still asking about the effectiveness.
15:50What is your opinion, Mr. Rian?
15:53I think handling the stability of our currency exchange
15:58cannot only be done by the central bank.
16:02This is the Bank Indonesia.
16:05BI, as we monitor,
16:07has already done various strategies,
16:09various efforts,
16:11from conventional to non-conventional.
16:15Conventional, for example,
16:16BI does monetary operations,
16:18or market intervention,
16:21then does non-conventional policy,
16:24that is, by providing instruments,
16:28that can give a positive sentiment
16:31to the stability of our currency.
16:34Among them, for example,
16:35providing a Bank Indonesia Rupiah certificate,
16:40then there is a Bank Indonesia Foreign Currency Certificate.
16:43There is also another one,
16:45which is the FALAS certificate.
16:48BI even uses other instruments,
16:51such as DNDF, and so on.
16:54Okay.
16:55I don't think there is a lack of what BI is pursuing.
16:57And what gives the most serious meaning
17:03is that two months ago,
17:06the Bank Indonesia Governor's Council
17:08increased the interest rate from 6% to 6.25%.
17:12This completes various policy instruments
17:15that have been released by the Bank Indonesia
17:17as a central bank.
17:19But again, that is not enough,
17:21so there must be strengthening
17:23from the government.
17:26Earlier, Mr. Pras has said
17:27how we explore and exploit
17:32the potential of Proceed Export,
17:34or Deficit Sale Export,
17:36because there are already supporting instruments.
17:39As far as I remember,
17:40the Minister of Finance,
17:41related to DHI,
17:43probably must be optimized again.
17:46Then how to increase
17:48our business
17:50to meet the TKDN components,
17:53the domestic components,
17:55in a certain percentage,
17:57so that it replaces
17:59imported goods,
18:01imported goods,
18:02to the domestic import substitution.
18:04And there are still many other policy instruments,
18:06such as BUMN,
18:09which I believe other countries
18:11are also promoting
18:13the use of domestic components,
18:15as well as to review
18:18foreign currency loans,
18:21when the time falls,
18:22and what is the strategy
18:26for fulfilling its obligations.
18:28All of this must be calculated
18:30in a larger landscape,
18:31so that when the profile of foreign debt
18:34is getting closer,
18:37we provide enough foreign currency,
18:41so that we are not idle,
18:45and we are given a positive value or perception.
18:49All of this must be connected,
18:53and hands-on between the central bank
18:57and the government.
18:58And if this can be improved by the market,
19:01I think the market will give
19:03a positive reaction or response,
19:05while eliminating
19:07the negative sentiments
19:09that are now developing.
19:11And this is actually out of control
19:14from the central bank
19:15and the government.
19:17Of course, positive communication
19:20with good data,
19:22such as the surplus is still okay,
19:24then we can still cover the deficit
19:27up to 6.1% import demand
19:30and foreign currency payment,
19:32foreign and domestic investments
19:36that exceed the target,
19:38must continue to be communicated,
19:41so that the market feels comfortable
19:45that at least until today,
19:48the development of our economy
19:49is still on the right track.
19:51I think this is a positive direction.
19:53We try to give a positive picture,
19:56but you have outlined
19:57related to sentiments
19:58or negative information.
20:00Which part is this?
20:01And what is the mitigation like?
20:03What is the perception of the market
20:06towards the collaboration between
20:08the fiscal and monetary sector,
20:09as well as the government,
20:10and then Bank Indonesia?
20:12One of them is, for example,
20:13in February, the market was surprised
20:16by the release of the foreign research institute,
20:19if I'm not mistaken, Morgan Stanley,
20:21which discounted the outlook
20:27from the stock price of Samsung
20:29in the Indonesian stock market.
20:31Of course, a statement like this
20:33must have a kind of, in my term,
20:35counter-argument.
20:37Of course, from the authorities
20:39or from the self-regulatory organization,
20:42the SRO,
20:43how the release of Morgan Stanley
20:46can be countered,
20:47of course, with data,
20:49with analytical data
20:50that can be evaluated
20:53economically,
20:54or fundamentally,
20:56or technically.
20:58This is just a small case,
21:00because as far as I monitor,
21:03the release of Morgan Stanley
21:05seems to have a minimal response
21:08from the domestic market.
21:10So, this is a bit of a panic selling
21:15in our capital market,
21:17so that IHSK has reached the level of 7,300,
21:22then it dropped to below 7,000
21:25because of the effect of the release of Morgan Stanley.
21:28Of course, this must be worked on.
21:31So, the point is,
21:32when there are things that are not market-friendly,
21:36it must be countered immediately
21:38to regain confidence from our market players.
21:42This is just a small example.
21:44Of course, there may be other things
21:46that we can explore,
21:48so that the market can receive more balanced information.
21:53Even though, as Garis Bawai said,
21:55Morgan Stanley is not only specific
21:58to the Indonesian capital market,
22:00but especially for developing countries.
22:02Okay.
22:03Now, let's talk about the movement in the Rupiah market.
22:05There were a few points that you mentioned,
22:07such as the surrounding sentiment,
22:09efforts, or mitigations that need to be done.
22:11How about the public's availability
22:13as a consumer to buy products
22:15that are related to industrial products
22:18related to our Rupiah exchange rate,
22:20which is experiencing a weakness.
22:22Because when it comes to value protection,
22:24or hedging, as you said,
22:26there are costs, there are costs as well, Mr. Rian.
22:28Yes, that's right.
22:29There are costs that must be borne by the institution,
22:34which will usually be passed through to the consumer,
22:38or paid to the consumer.
22:40Of course, the final choice is in the consumer.
22:44Okay.
22:45Will the consumer take action today?
22:48Will the consumer delay a week later,
22:50or a month later,
22:52while waiting?
22:53While waiting,
22:55will our Rupiah exchange rate
22:57return to the assumption
22:59that was set in the APBN
23:01of 15,000 to 15,500 per dollar?
23:04Yes.
23:05Or, because that's the nature of the need
23:07that is not neglected,
23:09it must be executed.
23:10So, the choice to take action
23:13is for the consumer to return to the community.
23:16But the most possible thing is,
23:19let's reduce the needs of imported goods,
23:23which are, first, not important,
23:26second, not valuable.
23:28This is part of quadrant 4.
23:30Okay.
23:31That's all I can say.
23:32Lastly, Mr. Rian,
23:33in your opinion,
23:34will it also have a final impact
23:36on the ability or purchasing power of the community?
23:39I think so.
23:41Okay.
23:42Because, in the context of supply chain,
23:45there are final products
23:47that actually have raw components,
23:52or semi-finished goods,
23:54whose import content is quite dominant.
23:57Of course, the production cost
24:00that rises because of the import burden
24:03will be passed back to the consumer.
24:06The consumer will experience
24:08the pressure to consume it.
24:11Therefore, he will look for alternative products
24:14or substitutes
24:15whose price and quality
24:18may be slightly below the products
24:20that they usually consume.
24:22I think that's the highlight that we can work on.
24:25Hopefully, this is temporary.
24:28It won't be long
24:30while we wait for the right decision
24:32to make changes to the policy in the future.
24:36Okay, Mr. Rian.
24:37Thank you very much for your interesting statement
24:39that you have delivered.
24:40An extraordinary discussion.
24:42Similar to the movement of currency exchange value,
24:44we are still challenged by the movement
24:46of the Bunga Cuan tribe in the United States.
24:49Good luck with your activities again.
24:51Stay healthy.
24:52Thank you, Mr. Rian.
24:53Okay. Stay healthy, Mr. Prah.
24:54Thank you.
24:55Okay, Mr. Mirsa.
24:56I've been with you for an hour
24:58in the Market Review program.
25:00And I keep updating your information only on IDX channel.
25:03Your trustworthy and comprehensive investment reference.
25:05Because the future must move forward,
25:08I'm Investor Sahab.
25:09I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
25:10See you later.
25:39I'm Investor Sahab.
25:40I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
25:41See you later.
25:42I'm Investor Sahab.
25:43I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
25:44See you later.
25:45I'm Investor Sahab.
25:46I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
25:47See you later.
25:48I'm Investor Sahab.
25:49I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
25:50See you later.
25:51I'm Investor Sahab.
25:52I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
25:53See you later.
25:54I'm Investor Sahab.
25:55I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
25:56See you later.
25:57I'm Investor Sahab.
25:58I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
25:59See you later.
26:00I'm Investor Sahab.
26:01I'm Prasetyo Ibo.
26:02See you later.
26:03I'm Investor Sahab.