India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been sworn in to a third straight term in office. He has presided over an increasingly turbulent and volatile relationship with his country's neighbor, China - and with more violence at their shared Himalayan border a real risk, New Delhi is strengthening its commercial and informal ties with Taiwan.
Reporter Sally Jensen speaks to Jayadeva Ranadé, a member of India's National Security Advisory Board and President of India's Centre for China Analysis and Strategy. We zoom in on how India-China relations have changed under Modi to the present, then zoom out to what the future holds and how it could affect Taiwan.
Reporter Sally Jensen speaks to Jayadeva Ranadé, a member of India's National Security Advisory Board and President of India's Centre for China Analysis and Strategy. We zoom in on how India-China relations have changed under Modi to the present, then zoom out to what the future holds and how it could affect Taiwan.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to Zoom In, Zoom Out, your global look at news from Taiwan and around the region.
00:18I'm Sally Jensen.
00:20India's incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been re-elected for a third straight
00:25term.
00:26I was on the ground in India asking experts how Modi's re-election will alter the country's
00:32relations with China and Taiwan.
00:35But before we go to our guest today, let's dig more into India's election results.
00:40Here's Prime Minister Narendra Modi at his victory speech.
00:44As leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP, Modi's brand of right-wing Hindu nationalism
00:59and his cash transfer programmes to low-income families have made him popular at home over
01:05the last decade.
01:07Modi beat INDIA, an alliance of 26 opposition parties led by Rahul Gandhi, but the result
01:13defied expectations as the opposition made major gains, helping dampen what many had
01:19thought would be a massive BJP victory.
01:30Despite rapid economic growth and massive welfare spending, poverty remains a problem
01:35among the agriculture-dependent workforce.
01:38He's eased tense relations with China, but the ongoing risk of clashes at the two countries'
01:43shared border, which surfaced nearly four years ago and have led to an ongoing standoff,
01:49will test his diplomatic acumen.
01:53You can find the full report on the Taiwan Plus website.
01:57Now to understand more about the future of India's relationship with China, I sat down
02:02with veteran China expert Jayadeva Ranade.
02:05Mr Ranade is a member of India's National Security Advisory Board and the President
02:10of India's Centre for China Analysis and Strategy.
02:14We began by zooming in on how the India-China relationship has changed under Modi's premiership
02:20in the last 10 years.
02:51He has to carry at least the core of the party with him.
02:55And they've taken a decision, obviously the President will set the tone and set the guidelines.
03:02They've taken a decision that, you know, they can, that the most important thing for them
03:07is to effect the rejuvenation of what they call the great Chinese nation, which is the
03:12recovery of territories.
03:14And here, of course, we have, according to their maps, there are claims on territories,
03:18Indian territories, there are claims on, maritime claims on Japan, on Philippines, on Vietnam.
03:25They seem to be pushing ahead with the whole lot.
03:27So the present state of relationship is this, it's, we are willing to talk, we are willing
03:33to, you know, not let things be, but we've said you go back to where you were in April
03:402020, and then we'll go ahead.
03:43But on the border, to be frank, the Chinese have engaged in hectic activity.
03:50They built border defense infrastructure for a long duration stay.
03:55They built it for additional troops to come in.
03:58They brought in new equipment and weaponry.
04:02So you know, they're building airfields, they're carrying out all kinds of practices.
04:07And by 2030, they aim to have 35 airfields in Tibet.
04:11So there's a lot of construction work going on, major roads, and of course, other activity.
04:17So I think it's a relationship that at the moment is, if I may say, marked by intense
04:25wariness on our side.
04:28And what have some of India's opposition parties been saying about how to manage relations
04:34with China?
04:35You know, I'd say that there are statements made when one is in the opposition.
04:41And when you come in to power, things are different.
04:45But in this case, the opposition has been in government for many years.
04:50So they're aware.
04:51And I think in foreign policy, I doubt there'll be any change regardless of who comes in.
04:58And major areas will remain as they are.
05:01Even with China, I think they've all across the board been quite clear that China has
05:07to go back to where it was in April 2020.
05:11And they have looked at it as China sort of breaking all the agreements, whether it's
05:16the Congress, whether it's the BJP.
05:18So I don't expect much change there.
05:21And what could be the impact, if any, on India-China relations with this new balance of power in
05:28the lower house?
05:30I think the general trend will remain the same because he has formed the government
05:34or he will be forming the government.
05:37So I think there is a degree of stability there which will remain.
05:40The laws that are coming in will be actually regulatory in nature, nothing major that I'm
05:49aware of, which is planned.
05:51So I don't expect much change.
05:53I don't think on major issues of policy, foreign policy, that there will be problems in the
06:00lower house.
06:01But what will happen is probably there will be much more consultation and deliberation
06:08by both sides before they move further.
06:11And how do you see India's relationship to China changing perhaps in the next five years
06:17or even further ahead?
06:19There are two factors here which come into play.
06:22It's not just India-China.
06:24One is the US and China.
06:27What is their relationship?
06:29We hear all kinds of stories coming out of the United States.
06:31Some saying that we should, you know, just go in for competition and trade and not do
06:36anything else.
06:37Others are saying, no, we must put a brake on the Chinese growth.
06:40So all that's happening between the US and China.
06:43But I personally think the relationship is deteriorating.
06:47At present, it looks as if they're going to head into rather heavy weather.
06:52That's one.
06:53So that will affect India-China, it will affect China and the neighborhood.
06:58If there is a clash or a very serious situation, the devil is between the two.
07:03And I think it's a possibility.
07:05The other is Russia-China.
07:07And you know, we have a good relationship with Russia, I think.
07:13But people are concerned, including here, of how close Russia comes to China and what
07:20kind of pressures the Chinese can apply on Russia to get them to change their policies,
07:27to bring them in line with what the Chinese want.
07:30I think that's a concern.
07:35Of course, China is creating a lot of geopolitical tension in the Asia-Pacific region, both militarily
07:42and diplomatically.
07:44What do you think will be India's role in helping to maintain peace?
07:49It's a question of China having declared and given a date by when they want to be the number
07:56one power.
07:58And the Americans are already the number one power.
08:00So I don't see the Americans stepping down and telling the Chinese, OK, you take over
08:05or allowing them to be partners in being number one.
08:09So there is a conflict situation there.
08:13Now, how they sort it out, whether they're able to use some other methods to put a break
08:18on China's growth and thereby succeed, there are methods short of conflict, short of war,
08:24where it can be done.
08:26The other is, of course, if everything else fails, there would be a clash between the
08:31two and we'll see how that plays out.
08:34But at the present, I think the Chinese don't want a clash.
08:39They would like to avoid it.
08:40I think from what I heard, the PLA has conveyed to Xi Jinping that they're not ready.
08:48But whether he listens or not is another question.
08:51Now let's discuss a little bit about Taiwan.
08:54How do you see India's relationship to Taiwan changing, if at all?
08:59Now there is a warming in the relationship between the two countries and there are a
09:04lot of visits being exchanged.
09:06There are senior people on both sides who are meeting each other, visiting also.
09:12So I think things are going ahead.
09:14Trade will be a big factor.
09:17And I am hoping that more Taiwanese companies come here to do business.
09:23Getting into a business here is not easy, though we talk of ease of business and we
09:28try to improve things, but it's still going to take time.
09:30But I think that's the direction where we are going.
09:34The chip manufacturing, the fabs, et cetera, is one big area where we can go ahead.
09:40Then some manufacturing sectors have opened up, Taiwanese have come in.
09:44So I think that's one direction.
09:46The second, I would say, is if we have more people-to-people contact, that will break
09:50things down.
09:52And there are certain areas where there is a cooperation between Taiwan and India also
09:57taking place.
09:58Now, of course, India doesn't recognise Taiwan diplomatically, but recently retired
10:05chiefs of India's army, navy and air force visited Taiwan.
10:11How significant is this?
10:13And will we see perhaps more defence or security cooperation?
10:17Yes, I would not call it defence cooperation as such, but it's certainly a thawing in that
10:24particular sector where people are going.
10:26I think it's a good development and there will be more.
10:30Also, Taiwan has to reach out to people here and try and, you know, promote exchanges.
10:36They've got contacts here with various think tanks.
10:39So there is a lot of traffic.
10:41Traffic can be increased.
10:43There's also language training going on.
10:45So, you know, things like that can be built on.
10:48Of course, Modi has ambitious economic goals to accelerate India's growth through manufacturing,
10:56high tech industries and also renewable energy, which are all things that Taiwan is good at.
11:04Would you say that Taiwan will play a role in India's economic growth?
11:08We would like it to.
11:10And in fact, some of us were pushing for that.
11:15In fact, we, you know, tried to get the Taiwanese companies in.
11:18Of course, these things take time.
11:20But I certainly feel that Taiwan has a role here and our people should start exploring
11:26opportunities in Taiwan, if nothing else, for trying to have, shall I say, technology
11:32cooperation with Taiwanese companies, if they're reluctant to come and set up shop here.
11:37So that's something which can be done and I think it needs to be done.
11:43Would you say that with the government mistrust of China, is this being reflected among India's
11:50wider public as well?
11:53Near total.
11:54Near total.
11:55In fact, there was a survey done recently which showed that, you know, we were right
11:59on top as far as no trust with the Chinese.
12:02I mean, there's a lot of, I would say, negative feeling about the Chinese.
12:072020 changed a lot of things because it made it very clear that as far as they were concerned,
12:13they could not be trusted to abide by any agreement or treaty.
12:18And then there were the clashes at Galwan where lives were lost on both sides.
12:23And I think after that, all the people who still thought that the Chinese are good guys
12:29and we can have a relationship with them, I think the scales fell off the ice.
12:33And it was very clear in India that we can't trust them.
12:37So today we're at a stage where, frankly, there is no trust.
12:42And what are the chances of seeing a repeat or perhaps a resurgence of violence on the
12:48India-China border?
12:50I think it's high, frankly.
12:54I don't know how large it will be, how widespread.
12:57I expect there'll be short and localized, maybe, conflicts or clashes.
13:04But this time, you know, the armies on both sides are deployed.
13:07There are about 70,000 to 80,000 troops on the border right there.
13:12They've got their logistics infrastructure developed.
13:15They've got their, you know, the rest of the thing there.
13:17They've got heavy armour, they've got light armour, they've got all the stuff there.
13:21They've got aircraft deployed.
13:23And it's all across, all along the 4,750-kilometre border.
13:28So it can happen anywhere.
13:30You can't pinpoint that it will only happen in the Ladakh sector or the central sector.
13:35But this time, if something happens, there will be a strong reaction from India.
13:39It will not be, you know, the first effort will not be to try and say, OK, OK, doesn't
13:44matter, if you come up to here, we'll talk and get you back.
13:46I don't think the army is in the mood for that.
13:49There will be a clash.
13:50And I think the Chinese side probably realises that.
13:55That was Jayadeva Renade, veteran China analyst and member of India's National Security Advisory Board.
14:03And this has been Zoom In, Zoom Out.
14:05You can find more stories from Taiwan Plus by following us on social media.
14:09Thanks for watching.
14:10We'll see you next time.
14:20Bye.
14:50Bye.