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00:00A lot of quick thoughts here. Do you anticipate, I mean, what's the kind of upticks that come
00:06into ARPUs and thereby EBITDA assumptions for Jio as well as the other two telcos assuming
00:14that they also take a price hike? And how much of that is factored in already?
00:18Okay, so you know, if you look at the ARPUs of Bahti Airtel, it already moved up from
00:27around 182 to 205 in the last two years. Okay, you already have seen around 13-14% upside
00:35in the ARPU. Now, you know, last week we came out with a report and we said that there are
00:42expectations of 15-20% hike in the tariffs. And the hike has come on the higher side of
00:53our expectation. What does this mean is that, you know, we were expecting Bahti Airtel's
01:00profit to more than double from FY24 to FY26. Now, we believe that instead of 110% increase
01:13in the profit, it could be 140-145% increase. Assuming that Bahti is also going to follow
01:22up with a 15% kind of hike in the existing tariffs. Now, what we think and believe is
01:32that this is not end of the tariff hikes. This is just the beginning. I think the companies
01:40will try and see how is the market going to behave to these hikes. Based on that, we believe
01:47that in next fiscal year, you might have one more hike because this is very important.
01:54Because if the companies have to monetize their investments in the 5G network, they'll
02:02have to take these hikes. So, I think what market has done is they have already increased
02:08their estimates by 8-10%. We had also done that about a week back and we had increased
02:16our target price on Bahti Airtel from around Rs.1510 to Rs.1680.
02:23Of course, like you said, some of it could have been priced in and entities like yourself
02:29have already increased your target price on the likes of Bahti. I mean, seeing is believing
02:35and I think what we've seen with Jio is they've come out with a tariff hike which is much
02:38higher than expected. If Bahti and Vodafone does the same, would you go out and further
02:43increase your price target on Bahti, assuming there's a 20% price hike? And how do you feel
02:49about Vodafone and Indus? I mean, they seem to be the real underdogs at this stage. And
02:53we've seen a clear stock performance where the stock is up 30% on really hopes of a recovery
02:59there.
03:00Correct. So, you know, specific to the earning estimate, yes, seeing is believing. So, what
03:11I just said and mentioned was that this is not the end of the tariff hike. So, what it
03:17does is that there is always a chance of further earning upgrade ahead. Now, that is what is
03:25going to keep these stocks largely in focus now. Especially talking about Vodafone idea,
03:33we don't have active disincoverage on it. But I think the situation will also improve
03:41for them. But we don't have any specific target price in mind. Yes, but the Indus star
03:48will also do well because, you know, a price hike means better money for some of the weaker
03:57players. And that means a better outlook also for Indus star.
04:04Great. Lovely. Gaurav, thanks. I know you're traveling, but good of you to just take this
04:08call and give us your insights. Really appreciate your time.