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00:00This is, of course, just an estimate of the first round, but you do get an idea. I mean, this is
00:04here, the far right, and at the moment of June 2024, when Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament,
00:11they had 88 seats in parliament. So that is a huge, huge, huge jump for the far right.
00:18This is Emmanuel Macron's parliamentary majority, presidential majority, and at the moment of
00:24dissolution, they had more or less, we'd say, 250 seats, if you count also the other parties that
00:32had joined with his political party. So you really get an idea of how high the far right has gone,
00:39how low Emmanuel Macron has gone in these estimates. Here, this is a new popular front,
00:44so that is that left-wing coalition encompassing parties from the hard left, but also the
00:49Socialist Party. They are, again, projected about 125 to 165 seats, so a very, very different-looking
00:57National Assembly according to these first-round estimates. It is, just to get the perspective of
01:02this deep tea as well, when we're looking at, you know, the Fifth Republic's shoulder goal, we had
01:07two parties, we had the Gaullists and you had the Socialists, and then 2017, suddenly Emmanuel
01:12Macron comes along, they have a majority, they have 350, they can work out a presidential majority,
01:18they need 289, go to 2022, they suddenly have around 250, they don't have what they need now,
01:25we're really seeing a shrinking of the centre. Absolutely, indeed, and I mean, once again, I think
01:31it's important to bring up that number you mentioned, 289 is what you consider the magic
01:36number, if you like, it is the number needed for an absolute majority in Parliament. It wasn't the
01:42case in 2022, this is why we've sort of had this Parliament that's really been stalled for the
01:50past two years. According to the estimates, I mean, once again, it's very hard to predict, there is a
01:55second round and many of those races will be three-horse races, but in any case, it doesn't
02:01look like, at least according to these estimates, that any party would get that absolute majority
02:06either, which means that the French Parliament would once again sort of be stuck in this
02:10relative majority and what consequences that has, irrespective of who becomes Prime Minister,
02:16I think is a really a big question going forward, how this will affect
02:21the next three years until presidential elections.