The Meyers Report 6-28-2024 Fast 15
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00:00Hey, good morning, everyone.
00:06Welcome to the Friday Meyers Report Fast 15 for June 28, 2024.
00:14Well, it was an interesting night with the debate last night.
00:18In a sentence, boys.
00:21Don, what do you think?
00:23Trainwreck.
00:25Isaac.
00:26Yeah, rollover, as we say in our business.
00:32Bob?
00:34I think it was a logical consequence of what the Democrats did to keep everyone else,
00:42to keep the public from choosing a candidate.
00:45I mean, they basically isolated Biden from the start.
00:48They reduced anyone else who wanted to run against him.
00:52And the public never got a chance to really voice their opinion.
00:55And I think they suffered the consequences of doing that.
00:59I think you're right.
01:00Don, you were right again, as you usually are,
01:04both in the forecast of the weather that we were getting in terms of the heat,
01:09and also the rabid media circus.
01:13And the media folks brought up climate change last night, and so did Biden.
01:20You know, they were talking about last year or this year being the hottest in history.
01:26Can you please tell us again why this isn't true?
01:30And where are they getting these talking points from?
01:34Well, as we've discussed before, it's a very well funded, basically propaganda machine.
01:41Money is being funneled through the Associated Press and through people like Jeff Bezos and
01:46other billionaires like Bill Gates to propagate basically what they feel is
01:53legitimate climate information, when in reality, it's just hyperbole.
01:57It's the last heat wave.
01:59Here's a good example.
02:01And I'm at a conference where we talked about these things over the last couple of days.
02:06So another meteorologist went and looked at this major June heat wave we had, and it was hot.
02:13OK, it was a heat wave.
02:15But as we discussed, the governor of New York said it was going to be the hottest
02:19temperatures that New Yorkers have ever felt.
02:22Well, of 1,281 observing weather stations in the United States so far for the month of June,
02:31only two have set all time records for June.
02:35So it fell extremely fall, fell very short of its prediction, and fell extremely low
02:44bar in terms of what ended up happening in reality.
02:47So it was overhyped.
02:49And as I told somebody here yesterday, who's pro-climate change, is you have to put you have
02:56to start reining this rhetoric back, because the more things like this happen, like this
03:02June heat wave that are overpromoted, you're just going to continue to lose credibility.
03:07And the person didn't disagree with me.
03:09I gave them a litany of other things that they've screwed up before.
03:15Do you by any chance know where those two sensors were?
03:19What states?
03:21One was in Vermont, and I think the other one was in Maine.
03:26OK, both areas that generally people run to to get cool during the summer.
03:31So a variation up there to get a record heat wave wouldn't take much, would it?
03:37No.
03:37But last I saw, New England was still on the map.
03:40It didn't melt.
03:42And of course, you've got people like Obama, who, despite the threats of rising sea levels,
03:48are spending huge amounts of money to get seashore homes.
03:52Why is that?
03:54Well, because the sea level rise is measured in millimeters a decade.
04:00A decade.
04:02And at the current sea level rise, homes along the coast have hundreds of years
04:08of not having to worry about it.
04:09So it's still a good investment.
04:13Isaac, diesel prices are rising on the wholesale and retail levels.
04:19Diesel prices on the wholesale level are up 24% since the beginning of the month.
04:25And I know with your fleet, you're starting to see diesel prices rising.
04:30Again, how are truckers handling it?
04:33They're going to handle it the same way they've handled it
04:35throughout the last 18 months of this, Gary.
04:38They're going to struggle through it.
04:40The independents, the 1Z, 2Z contractors are going to struggle the most
04:45because they don't get a fuel surcharge.
04:47Let me remind you, a lot of the midsize and larger companies
04:50actually make a profit when diesel goes up
04:53because of the fuel surcharges we're able to charge our customers.
04:56The smaller guys, which is again, the bulk of our industry,
05:00don't benefit from those fuel surcharges.
05:03Has the shipping tidal wave that you've seen coming, has it started yet?
05:08We're getting near.
05:10We're definitely, definitely close.
05:12I would say we're within striking distance.
05:14I'd put us about 30 days away from a major wave about to hit our industry.
05:18We can feel it.
05:20The customers can feel it.
05:22And yeah, we're excited.
05:24We're optimistic about it.
05:26You know, speaking of, well, that's good news for the,
05:31that's good news for the trucking industry.
05:32It's good news for the economy that there's strength coming back.
05:36But also, it sounds like we've got inflation on the horizon too
05:40from what you're saying in terms of freight charges.
05:42Oh, absolutely.
05:43As soon as the market does come back,
05:45and we're already seeing signs of freight rates on the rise.
05:49We're having several customers coming to us
05:53because a lot of their other carriers are rejecting their current pricing.
05:57So this is something that we haven't seen in the last 20 months.
06:00Shippers are now officially scrambling to find capacity.
06:05I wouldn't have said this last week.
06:08Things are changing quick.
06:09Okay, Bob.
06:12Joe Biden has a chairman of his council of economic advisors named Jared Bernstein.
06:20As I understand it, he has a degree in music from Manhattan?
06:29Yeah, his bachelor's was in music.
06:32And his graduate degree was in social work.
06:42Yeah, I think from Hunter College in Columbia.
06:44Yes.
06:46Does he know anything about economics?
06:50Very little.
06:51And matter of fact, it's embarrassing
06:53because he was videotaped talking about the money supply and how things work.
06:59And he got so convoluted.
07:01He had no idea what was going on.
07:03And it was clear to everyone, including himself.
07:06And he said, you know, I really don't think I understand this stuff.
07:10So it was really sad.
07:13Yeah, why you would pick someone who has no exposure to economics
07:19and even an exposure might not do it.
07:20Hold a second, hold a second, Bob.
07:22Why you would do something like that is the main reason he was chosen
07:27was because of a diversity qualification.
07:31I mean, I find this difficult to comprehend.
07:39Let me decode what you're saying.
07:42He knows nothing about economics.
07:45He has no experience in economics.
07:47He has no experience in business.
07:49Do we know if he knows how to balance a checkbook?
07:53I don't know.
07:56I got to wonder.
07:58Maybe he should have been.
07:59But you know, it's just a sad thing.
08:03You would think if you're going to put someone in charge of economics,
08:06you should know something about the subject.
08:09He doesn't know anything about the subject.
08:12You know, a lot of economists I disagree with, but we certainly agree,
08:15even if we disagree on certain issues, we agree on some basic factors.
08:19I mean, like how things work.
08:20It has to be some basic knowledge
08:22before you can even start to talk to someone about a subject.
08:26And he apparently doesn't have any basic knowledge.
08:30And so that makes it very difficult to have any sort of conversation.
08:34Maybe he should take up weather forecasting.
08:38He might be equally unqualified there.
08:42Or I wonder if he can drive a semi truck.
08:45Let me follow up on what Isaac said about the increase in shipping that he's expecting.
08:52We're seeing some very interesting data on the economy right now.
08:56I was anticipating this tight money period would do a lot of damage.
09:01And it has to certain areas.
09:03But the latest report today just came in for the economy in May.
09:08And it turns out in May, personal incomes and real disposable incomes
09:14were rising at a 6% annual rate, a little more than 6% annually.
09:19That's pretty strong for incomes and real spendable earnings.
09:25So it looks like there are no signs through May that the economy is slowing.
09:32And we've got some preliminary data from June this month, earlier this month, obviously,
09:39that show that the economy continues to be very strong.
09:42The S&P did a survey.
09:43And they said it was the fastest June in over two years for a monthly basis.
09:49Now, that's only one survey.
09:51But the indications are that the economy is going along strong.
09:55It's not what I would have expected based on this period.
10:00We've had now almost a year, over a year of tight monetary policy,
10:05rising interest rates, inverted yield curves,
10:08weakness in housing, decline in living standards.
10:11A lot of confusing things going on in the economy.
10:13But some of the most recent data are showing that the economy remains strong.
10:17Hey, Bob, I want to show you something,
10:21because this is where I think some of the economists are going to get it wrong.
10:25This is, I forget, you said it was the St. Louis Fed that looks at the average.
10:31No, the Cleveland Fed estimates inflation.
10:37So if they look at prices based upon the average for an entire month,
10:42well, if you look at this, this is the average for West Texas Intermediate Crude.
10:47And it clearly shows that August was the high point.
10:51It went down in May and would indicate that June also went down
10:56because its average was lower than May, slightly.
11:00But they're using, by taking the average of the month,
11:02they're getting trailing information.
11:04Because this is what's happened with retail, with the wholesale prices.
11:11It bottomed in the beginning of June and has gone straight up.
11:15This is the diesel price, which has gone up,
11:18the wholesale diesel price before taxes and everything else
11:21that really drives up the numbers, has gone up 25% since June 6th,
11:26and it's gone up steadily.
11:28This is the same thing for the wholesale price for two major companies.
11:34Two major suppliers in Illinois, Marathon and Exxon.
11:39Both of those have gone up roughly seven and a half percent.
11:45Then you have, and here's how it works, and why I see inflation coming.
11:49This is the wholesale price, which we've shown just above,
11:54and this is the retail price.
11:56The retail price, which was even declining while these prices were going up,
12:02it lags.
12:03So that what we are now seeing is there was a slight increase,
12:06and now it's starting to jump up significantly in the last three or four days.
12:13So that the point is, these high prices are going to be seen
12:18going into July, and there's just no way around it.
12:22Yeah, and what I think people should realize is
12:26the figures I just talked about today,
12:28where there was basically no inflation in May,
12:32are figures from May.
12:34The June figures, which will be coming out during the month of July,
12:38first the CPI and then another inflation number,
12:41those figures are also going to show low inflation.
12:46But they'll be wrong.
12:47But the most recent figures are showing it's only temporary.
12:53That these figures, the oil prices and other prices
12:58are going to be shooting up in the months after that.
13:01And especially because the economy continues to be so strong.
13:06I think the Fed is a long way from cutting interest rates at this point.
13:10I don't think they're going to be able to do it because of two things.
13:13One, the inflation numbers after this month are going to still be high
13:19as we go into August and as we go into September.
13:23And those high inflation combined with a strong economy,
13:26with rapidly rising incomes,
13:30is going to tell the Fed that, well, we better not cut interest rates right now.
13:35We can't do it with this strong economy.
13:38So the people who are expecting a very quick decline in interest rates,
13:42I think they're going to be wrong.
13:44Okay, getting back to last night for a second.
13:47Biden also, among the other things that he said,
13:50that the economy is floundering under Trump
13:52when he came into office.
13:54Bob, was that true?
13:55No, no, totally incorrect.
13:58Similar to him telling us that inflation was 9% when he came into office.
14:03What was it then?
14:04It was down at 1%.
14:06And it stayed low for the first year of his office.
14:11As the economy came back, it was pretty low.
14:14It wasn't until his program came on that inflation came up.
14:18But the economy, when he came into office in the fourth quarter,
14:23the last year of 2020,
14:25was still booming from the rebound from COVID.
14:29It still had a way to go,
14:31but the economy was really in great shape.
14:33People were getting back to work.
14:35The stock market was up.
14:36Things were going really well.
14:38So he misled people on that account as well.
14:42Did he mislead them?
14:43Did he not understand, or was he simply out and out lying?
14:48I don't know.
14:50What do you guys think?
14:52He seems to just make numbers up and pick them out of the air.
14:55I don't know what kind of studying he would have done.
14:58Well, he got his information from a music major.
15:01Yeah, I think he has no clue where he is in terms of the United States.
15:07I don't think he has any idea what he's talking about, Gary.
15:12He's done this, if you study his career,
15:15he's done this his whole career as a politician.
15:18Just say stuff off the top of his head.
15:22He's been proven wrong time and time again.
15:24He's plagiarized.
15:25He's made things up, and it just has gotten worse as he ages.
15:31And he's had cover run for him his whole career by the media.
15:36So he just thinks he can continue to keep on doing it.
15:40Okay.
15:41I have a question for you, Bob.
15:42You said that disposable spending is up 6%.
15:46Did I hear that correct?
15:48The disposable personal income for May, this one month, was up at a 6% annual rate.
15:56Annualized rate.
15:58It was up half a percent, but you annualize it.
16:00That's a pretty strong rate of income growth for the month.
16:05And so that means that people have this real disposable income at their hands.
16:09They're going to go out and spend it.
16:12Towards the back end of last year,
16:13we spoke a lot about doom spending and credit card debt here in the States.
16:18Where does credit card debt, where does that stand today?
16:23I do not look at those figures closely, so I really can't tell you.
16:26The last time I looked at them, the consumer was really deep in debt.
16:31They had expanded, especially over the winter.
16:34They had spent far more money than they had,
16:36and it was going to take them several months to work that down.
16:40My guess is they've worked it down a bit.
16:42But the big thing is, if their real disposable incomes are going up at a 6% annual rate,
16:49they've got funds, at least at the moment.
16:52And so they'll be back in the market spending.
16:54But however, credit is tightening, Isaac.
16:58Okay, on that, guys, I want to wish you have a nice, safe weekend.
17:02Be well, and God bless America.
17:08Take care.
17:09Take care.