This week the lads talk all things football finance with special guest, academic, author, and broadcaster Kieran Maguire.
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00:00Right, it's your Geordie Journals, back on your TV screens as ever, always this time
00:12isn't it?
00:13I would try to be anyway, not that I'm ever on time.
00:18Catch us on YouTube, as we usually do, but also on TV as we are right now.
00:24It's been a bit of a depressing last 24 hours in some ways hasn't it?
00:29When you think about it, it was around 24 hours ago to this point that everyone was
00:34just getting to grips with the idea of it not coming home again.
00:40I'm glad Jordan came home though.
00:42Yeah, Jordan did come home.
00:44Thanks lads.
00:45Good to have you back.
00:47It is.
00:48I do think everyone kind of moves on quite quickly though in the football world.
00:54Things do.
00:55I think Newcastle fans do.
00:57I think the excitement for the new season comes straight away and your passion for your
01:03club becomes more pertinent.
01:06I've seen some discourse online with regards to the feeling of England getting beat.
01:15We all kind of had different camps.
01:16I've got to say, weirdly, with the Euros that just went, I didn't have the same passion.
01:25That's not saying I'm not a massive, I love England, I want them to win things, I'm a
01:31big supporter.
01:32I felt pain at moments, joy at others.
01:36I just don't really feel like in the tournament I was captured in many ways.
01:41I've spoken to a lot of people who kind of reflect that and I know you said that as well
01:44didn't you?
01:45Yeah, I really struggled personally as an England fan to get out of this tournament
01:49and I don't know if that came as a result of what happened last time out.
01:56I'm a bit of a thicker England fan, I follow the tournament, it's not really outside of it.
02:00I like success with England and we got a taste of that success, an early success against
02:06Italy, that final at Wembley and for me that was the chance that football should have come
02:11home and England's own backcourt and they should have beat Italy who weren't a great
02:16team and that cost them and then heading into this tournament, there wasn't much excitement
02:23around this England team.
02:24I think they had a really bad couple of months heading into the tournament in terms of not
02:28just results but performances as well and I think for many people it probably killed
02:32the excitement a little bit and then there was moments in England's tournament where
02:38as you mentioned there, you did get excited about the bell on the Moverhead kick, the
02:44semi-final last minute, Bakaio Saka last 15 minutes, there was moments that you got excited
02:50about but the feeling as a whole just wasn't there for me and even the final yesterday
02:56when Spain scored the late winner, my emotions, I should have been gutted but I kind of wasn't.
03:02No, I think the bit I was pointing out was somebody said, I can't remember who it was
03:08online, somebody was suggesting, imagine, remember how you felt when Darwin Nunes scored
03:13that double at St James' Park and I've got to be honest, I was a huge guy, you guys know,
03:20I just went, nah, I'm not coming downstairs, I literally just sat in the press box at St
03:24James' Park, shell shocked, I wasn't like that after England got beat, I was after they
03:30got beat off Italy, I'll be honest with you, I was.
03:33This time wasn't quite the same, I felt like England were always reaching, you're always
03:38like, they're not the England you want them to be or they can't be, they're just a shadow
03:42of what they are and they've kind of limped their way through.
03:45Yeah, well Jordan hit the nail on the head, Euro 2020, England should have won that tournament,
03:50this one it always felt like they were almost on unborrowed time since that Jude Bellman
03:55goal really where Slovakia probably just about, well didn't in the end but probably deserved
04:01to win and I was watching that Slovakia game resign to England being out and since then
04:07everything was a bonus and Spain just waltzed that competition, they deserved to win and
04:12when you get beaten by the best team in the competition, fair enough and last time out,
04:19like Jordan said, it wasn't a great Italy side, they were good in that competition but
04:23yeah, England at Wembley, that was when it should have came home and it didn't and on
04:29penalties as well so yeah, I think you're probably right as well, I'd say maybe three
04:34times in December alone, we were more disappointed after a Newcastle game, you go Chelsea, AC
04:40Milan, actually PSG, it was November, those were all much more disappointing games to experience
04:47as a fan in my opinion but it's just the way national football works, major tournaments,
04:54it being once every two years, it feels like ooh, maybe missed opportunity.
04:59Yeah, and they'll not win the next one, not because of the location, location would suggest
05:03it'll be a South American winner such as the way that these things tend to go but then
05:08of course, it does come home and the next Euros is St James' Park, some of it so that's
05:17the opportunity for me, the opportunity is four years time, if England don't win that
05:20then we may as well give up, we'll just make a good manager appointment, we'll just stick
05:26to playing cricket or something, been offered for bloody, no honestly, my quick thoughts
05:35on it are, I think there's been a lot made of the best team won it, it was a really poor
05:38tournament for national football, there was not a good team at the tournament, Spain won
05:43that without being a really good side, they were the best of a bad bunch in my opinion.
05:47Spain probably beat all the good sides, didn't they?
05:49Well they had Serbia, yeah, Germany won, Georgia, Georgia were the best team, I'm going to put
05:56money on them for the next one.
05:59Austria were good, Austria were good in the group, Turkey were good in the knockout stages
06:04I thought.
06:05They were the teams that were a breath of fresh air and I'm one of the biggest critics
06:09of this expanded tournament because it loses the quality but it actually enhances it when
06:14you're looking at the way international football is now but anyway, like I said, everybody
06:18moves on quite quickly and I think football moves quite quickly and you can't say you're
06:22not back in training this week, I don't know if I've managed to do that smoothly enough
06:26there, it feels a bit abrupt going from talking about Turkey and Georgia to suddenly Joe Willock
06:32running around Bennington, it's good to see him back, it's good to see Joe Willock back
06:36but it certainly is, I mean we've seen the training pictures, we've seen who's in and
06:39around, obviously there's a few notable absentees, the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and others.
06:46Trippier, Anthony Gordon.
06:47Cuban Trippier, Anthony Gordon.
06:50Sorry, if we're going to go back on that.
06:52Underused, Anthony Gordon.
06:54Criminally underused.
06:56I don't understand why he took him, he may as well have taken Marcus Rashford, what was
07:01the point of taking Anthony Gordon?
07:03You've literally dropped somebody like Marcus Rashford who for me should have went anyway
07:07no matter how he's playing for Man United because for England he's a performer, he's
07:10always done well and he would have suited that system.
07:12Well look at Cole Palmer's impact on the tournament, who were the two most informed
07:17English players in the tournament?
07:18Anthony Gordon and Cole Palmer.
07:20Cole Palmer didn't start a game but made two really important impacts in terms of
07:25the assist for Olly Watkins, the goal.
07:28Why didn't Anthony Gordon get an opportunity?
07:30He could have produced similar.
07:30We've seen in three minutes Anthony Gordon when he came on, I can't remember what game
07:33it was now.
07:34It was the last group game where suddenly he got a hold of the ball and passed it forward,
07:38it was remarkable.
07:39It was the first one to do it all day.
07:40Planting an alien in the midfield, that's what it was.
07:42Anthony Gordon was England's alien.
07:46It was a proper left winger on the left wing and probably, I don't want to go too much
07:51into it, but Phil Ford had flashes of brilliance in the tournament.
07:55He probably had 20 minutes there and then.
07:58Garry Southgate showed himself what he is, a really cowardly manager in many ways.
08:03He's got a lot of positives in certain respects but a cowardly manager who was unable to take
08:08the big decisions when he needed to.
08:10Harry Kane, he admitted himself, was not fit and so if the bloke's not fit, why do you
08:14start them every single game?
08:16If he's not fit, don't play him in one or two of the group games where you know you're
08:19going to get through anyway.
08:20If he's not fit, let him get fit.
08:22Rubbish.
08:23I just don't.
08:23I think it's cowardly and it's the same with Phil Ford.
08:26He almost played every single other player, including Jude Bellingham, who is not a left
08:31winger.
08:31He made him do a left wing job in that final because he wanted to fit Phil Ford in behind
08:35the forward.
08:36Phil Ford isn't a traditional number 10.
08:39He's a man city robot.
08:40He will not run past Harry Kane and get him behind and you need it.
08:44That's why I'm saying Marcus Rashford would have suited this system to a tee.
08:48All hindsight and we said we were going to move on and we haven't even moved on.
08:52Sorry.
08:54But quickly on Newcastle United, I mean, everything's back in the full flow of things
08:57because I do think we need to talk a little bit about Newcastle United before we go into
09:00the second half of this programme because in the second half of this programme, we do
09:04have a bit of an interview with Kieran Maguire, who's a football finance expert, broadcaster,
09:10author of The Price of Football.
09:12He's going to be talking with me in the second half of the show about PSR, the PSR
09:18debacle, as it seemed from the outside looking in.
09:21And I asked him the really pertinent question of do Newcastle United have money to spend?
09:27And he gives that answer.
09:28So in the second half of the show, you get a little bit of that.
09:31But I want you guys to kind of talk about that because while you've been away, there's
09:35been a lot of movement at Newcastle United.
09:38Yeah, in terms of...
09:40Amanda Stavey, yeah.
09:42Yeah, I mean, it was, you'll be the same.
09:45It was a surprise, wasn't it?
09:47I don't think Amanda Stavey, me and Agudisi was a surprise in terms of them going, but
09:51the timing of it was, I was shocked by it.
09:54I didn't expect that to happen this season, but it has.
09:59And I think it's sad to see them go from a personal sort of level because they're two
10:06really nice people and have done great things for this club.
10:09I think the greatest thing they could have done was the persistence and tenacity they
10:13showed to get the takeover over the line.
10:15If it wasn't for those two figures, Newcastle United would not be sitting with new owners
10:19now.
10:19They would be still rotting under Mike Oshie and God knows where they would be in the English
10:24pyramid.
10:26But in terms of the two or three years they've had, made some really important decisions
10:31off the pitch, got the feel-good factor, the city moving in the right direction again.
10:35But, I mean, Don will probably chip in on this, yeah.
10:39Was it the right time?
10:42Possibly.
10:42Some people might say it different, but I think it probably was the right time because
10:46Newcastle started putting proper people in proper positions in terms of your Paul Mitchells
10:51and, you know, there's James Bunce who came in last week as well.
10:56Amanda Stavey and me and Agudisi's roles almost became redundant because they've got proper
11:00people, proper football people in those positions.
11:02Yeah, the hierarchy and the almost power of those in position at the club became a
11:09bit blurred, like with the Dan Ashworth situation.
11:12And then by appointing Paul Mitchell, James Bunce, as you say, they've got clear people
11:17in clearly defined roles and I thought Amanda Stavey and Murdad Agudisi's position at the
11:22club just became increasingly blurred and you were like, what really is their place
11:28at the club?
11:29Financially, they couldn't really keep up with the other corners, PIF and the Reuben
11:34brothers, or RB Sports and Media, sorry.
11:37So, yeah, it felt like the right time, I thought.
11:40Yeah, I'm not a big fan of it.
11:42I'll be brutally honest.
11:43I'm not a big fan of the portrait of the pair of them, but I'm sure we'll come on to that
11:48in future Geordie Journals.
11:50For now, it's goodbye.
11:52We'll see you after the break and we'll come in with a bit of Kieran Maguire.
11:59It's been a tumultuous few weeks at Newcastle United.
12:04Finance is always on the agenda when it comes to Newcastle United and who better to get
12:10somebody in to talk about the context around the madness of football finance than Kieran
12:15Maguire himself, football finance expert, academic, author, broadcaster.
12:19Anything else, Kieran?
12:22Grandad.
12:24That's my most important role in life, I can assure you.
12:27Yeah, very much so.
12:28Very much so.
12:30Right, shall we start at the beginning?
12:31It's been a remarkable journey at Newcastle United, very much.
12:36I think one thing that fans are finding at the moment is a little bit of confusion because
12:40Newcastle United have in many ways painted themselves out since the takeover, majority
12:44takeover of PIF.
12:46It's been whiter than white, making sure we fit every criteria possible, will not break
12:51spending, will be very careful in everything that they do.
12:55I think June the 30th kind of blew a lot of people's minds with regards to that kind of
12:59policy.
13:00I mean, what did you make of the PSR calculations?
13:02And we'll come on to the complex nature of all that kind of thing later on in the call,
13:06but what did you make of the June the 30th thing?
13:09It wouldn't have been much of a surprise to you, I suppose, given that the research and
13:12the finances that you've got your hold of at the moment.
13:16I didn't think Newcastle were in a terrible position on the 30th of June 2024.
13:24But at the same time, I was aware that they probably had to do nothing.
13:30For people unfamiliar with the rules, you can only lose £105 million over three years.
13:38Now, in 2021, or sorry, 2022, Newcastle United lost effectively £150 million, but you can
13:47make various adjustments and tweaks and so on.
13:49So I suspected they had to make some form of adjustment to sort of claw back some of
13:57the issues, but it wasn't a huge driver.
14:02And clubs had come to terms with the fact that if you sell academy players, or if you
14:10sell young players that you bought for low fees for high fees, you can generate far greater
14:16profits than selling the likes of Bruno or Isaac and so on.
14:23And also, you're keeping the tried and tested stars at the club.
14:27So I think that was the strategy the club decided to apply.
14:32For all of the faults of Mike Ashley, and let's face it, we could do a separate two
14:36hour special, which just dealt with all of the faults of Mike Ashley.
14:39The one thing that he did do, as far as the new owners was concerned, is that he left
14:44them in a very strong PSR situation.
14:48And that's allowed the wage bill to substantially increase.
14:54It doubled between 2021 and 2023, for example.
14:58It's allowed significant investment in talent, but you can't do that forever unless the
15:06money coming into the club rapidly increases as well.
15:10So that's where we were.
15:12So I was expecting something as far as Newcastle United was concerned, but then I was expecting
15:17something from quite a few other clubs as well.
15:19I was asked by one of the national media organisations to analyse six clubs that they felt close
15:29to the wick.
15:29And those six clubs were Newcastle, Villa, Leicester, Forest, Everton and Chelsea.
15:34And so clearly, the broadcasters or the media outlet had either been briefed by the clubs
15:43or they'd done their own sums, because people sometimes follow the nerds on social media,
15:48such as myself and Chris Bramble and Devin Thorson.
15:52So it was on the cards that something had to be done.
15:57I think the route that the club took was an interesting one.
16:00I know you're a very busy man.
16:03You're almost every TV screen or every radio.
16:07Every time I turn the radio on, I hear your voice somewhere.
16:11So I do want to ask you this, and you know the game.
16:14I've saved this question right to the end to keep people interested all the way through
16:18if they weren't already.
16:20This is what most people are asking at the moment.
16:22We've had the June the 30th deadline.
16:24We've had PSR.
16:25All that seems to be backburner for the time being.
16:29Will Newcastle actually have any money to spend now?
16:32Have they got the capability to maybe spend some money this summer and not have immediate
16:37concerns?
16:39Yeah, I mean, without doubt, they've got money to spend.
16:42I mean, I think what people perhaps don't realise is that the profits from the sales
16:48of the two players and whatever money they got from the move of Dan Ashworth to Manchester
16:55United, that goes into not only settling any outstanding issues for 23-24, but it's
17:02part of the three-year pot as far as 24-25 is concerned.
17:07So they are in a strong position.
17:10They are able to be competitive.
17:13And remember, it's as much to do with perhaps being able to offer some of the existing squad
17:19an extension on their contract.
17:20Now, an extension on contract is football speak for a decent pay rise to stop thinking
17:25about going to go to the bright lights of the North West or London as anything else.
17:32And therefore, I don't see why Newcastle cannot be active as far as the transfer market
17:37is concerned.
17:38I think what Newcastle fans perhaps have to accept going forwards is that it's not just
17:43the indoor that will be the focus of attention, but the exit door has to be taken into account
17:50as well.
17:50And again, I'm looking at the numbers here.
17:54Flight sales in 2021, 2 million.
17:572022, 7 million.
17:592023, 3 million.
18:01So sales of £12 million over three seasons, that's not going to work for anybody.
18:09It was a transformative point, a period of time as far as the club is concerned, and
18:14the club has transformed, but it now has to operate on more of not necessarily a one
18:21in one out basis, but a more balanced approach as far as talent recruitment and retention
18:28is concerned.
18:30So I think it sounds like there is going to be money, but there has to be almost a change
18:34in direction as to what we've seen.
18:36That was the first period of where it was bringing your cash aid up to a level.
18:40Now it's got to be a sort of in and out where it's got to be trading is going to become
18:44even more key if you go to almost bridge the gap to the teams above you.
18:48That's right.
18:49I think what we've seen is we've had the rocket burners on for three seasons, and now
18:56we're going into orbit.
18:58We're starting to plateau a little bit.
19:01I'd still expect net spend to be positive on an annual basis, but not to be at the same
19:12level as those past three seasons.
19:16£41 million in 2021, and that was what the owners were only in for one window.
19:22Then £142 million followed by £150 million.
19:28Those numbers are not sustainable on a long term basis for any club, and that includes
19:34some of the more stellar clubs.
19:36I can understand Newcastle fans saying, well, what about Chelsea?
19:40But nobody dislikes Chelsea more than I do, as a Brighton fan.
19:45We loathe Chelsea.
19:47We actually dislike Chelsea more than we dislike Crystal Palace.
19:50It's a bit like a Newcastle fan finding that they dislike a club more than they dislike
19:54Sunderland.
19:55It's that bad.
19:56And we've hated that.
19:57Why is that, may I ask?
20:01Because of the trade and it's happened recently.
20:04They've taken 13 members of staff.
20:07And it has become farcical.
20:12They've taken the manager, but not just the manager, the goalkeeping coach, the number
20:17two, all of Brian Potter's team.
20:20That lasted six months.
20:22Our player of the season, when Koeper Rea, who'd been the player of the season effectively
20:29the previous season, he went as well after he discovered that apparently since childhood,
20:35this is unusual for a kid from Spain.
20:37His dream was to go to Chelsea and play for them.
20:41That's very believable.
20:42Yeah, very believable indeed, yeah.
20:45So yeah, I will be, I'm fortunate enough to be going to Berlin on Sunday to watch England
20:52versus Spain.
20:53I will be cheering on England, of course.
20:55That's the right thing to do.
20:56But I'll be booing Koeper Rea's every touch, along with all of the German fans who felt
21:00that he conceded a penalty.
21:03So, you know, Newcastle fans are saying, well, what about Chelsea?
21:06They've spent an absolute fortune.
21:08Chelsea have played the game.
21:10They've sold hotels and car parks to themselves.
21:14They've had some unusual transfers and player swaps, which weren't quite swaps, but just
21:21happened to move academy players elsewhere.
21:25And also, to give Chelsea some credit, and as much as I'm loathed to do this, Chelsea
21:31have been the most successful club over the course of the last decade in terms of selling
21:36players at huge profits.
21:38You think about Eden Hazard.
21:39Yeah, they sold him for well over 100 million to Real Madrid, and he stank out Madrid for
21:44years.
21:44But also the likes of, yeah, they sold Guehi, who's now playing for Palace.
21:49He came from Chelsea Academy.
21:50Pure profit.
21:51Tammy Abrahams, Mason Mount.
21:54All of these players have gone for tens and tens of millions, which has allowed Chelsea
22:00to be in a better position than perhaps people have realised, because all of the focus always
22:05is on the indoor.
22:07Yeah, as a company, Cassini have scored for a couple.
22:09Tino Livermendo was at Chelsea, and Lewis Hall this summer, £25 million straight in
22:14the back pocket for Chelsea when he, I think he'd started seven Premier League games up
22:18until last season.
22:19So it just shows the sort of the reliance on Cobham, effectively, to keep Chelsea bankrolled
22:26unless you've got hotels to sell, which I don't think you, Cassini, have got any of
22:30them.
22:32It's definitely not at London prices anyway.
22:34No.
22:35But I appreciate it.
22:36Kieran, is there anything that you want to plug at all that you're involved in at the
22:39moment?
22:42Well, if anybody's interested in any of this football finance nonsense, I do a podcast
22:48called The Price of Football with comedian Kevin Day, and we can't work out why it's
22:53popular, but it does seem to be popular.
22:56It's listened to, from what we understand, in a huge number of clubs up and down the
23:01country, mainly because staff fear that they might be featured.
23:06Like most news stories, for every one good story, there's probably five or six wrong-uns
23:12to talk about.
23:14But yeah, we go out two or three times a week, and on the back of that, sort of the profile
23:19of football finances has increased, which is, I guess, good for me career-wise.
23:26I've now got a Wikipedia page.
23:28It's absolutely dreadful for my marriage, because I'm doing this 365 days a year.
23:33Well, it's been really good having you on, Kieran, and we'll have to not keep it so long
23:37next time to get you on, if you can fit it in somewhere.
23:40But it's much appreciated.
23:42Always a pleasure to have a chat with you, Liam, and keep up the great work.
23:45Cheers, Kieran.
23:49FANS SING OLYMPIC ANTHEM