• 3 months ago
Di tengah upaya untuk meningkatkan produksi minyak yang siap jual atau lifting, realisasi produksi minyak di Indonesia terus mengalami penurunan hingga semester I-2024.

Menurut Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati dalam Laporan Realisasi Semester I dan Prognosis Semester II, pendapatan dari Sumber Daya Alam Migas pada semester I tahun 2024 mencapai Rp 55.509,7 miliar atau 50,4% dari target APBN 2024, mengalami kontraksi sebesar 7,6% dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya.

Perlambatan ini utamanya disebabkan oleh turunnya produksi minyak bumi dan gas bumi. Rata-rata lifting minyak bumi hingga semester I tahun 2024 mencapai 561 ribu barel per hari (rbph), lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan 605 rbph pada periode yang sama tahun 2023.

Di tengah penurunan produksi ini, Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) dan Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi terus berupaya meningkatkan produksi minyak.

Sekretaris Jenderal ESDM, Dadan Kusdiana, mengatakan bahwa upaya untuk meningkatkan produksi meliputi percepatan pemboran sumur pengembangan dan reaktivasi blok migas potensial yang masih idle. Selain itu, program reserve to production (R2P), Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), dan eksplorasi masif juga dilakukan.

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00:00The production of oil from the earth until the first semester of 2024 was recorded at only 561,000 barrels per day, while the realization fell by 7.27% compared to the first semester in 2023, which was recorded at 605,000 barrels per day.
00:30In an effort to increase the production of oil that is ready to be sold or lifted, the realization of oil production in Indonesia continues to decline until the first semester of 2024.
00:39The Minister of Finance, Mr. Milani Indrawati, in a report on the realization of the first semester and the forecast for the second semester of 2024, the income from the natural resources of MIGAS in the first semester of 2024 reached Rp 55,509.7 billion, or 50.4% of the 2024 APBN target.
00:58The realization experienced a 7.6% contraction compared to the same year before. This delay is mainly due to the decline in the production of oil and gas from the earth, where the average lifting of oil from the earth until the first semester of 2024 reached 561,000 barrels per day, or lower than the position of 605,000 barrels per day in the first semester in 2023.
01:23Mr. Milani explains, this decline is mainly due to a high decrease in the natural level of MIGAS resources, in line with the main production facilities of MIGAS that have declined.
01:33Nevertheless, in the middle of the decline in oil production in the first semester, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and the Special Operations Unit for the Implementation of Oil and Gas Industry continues to try to increase oil production.
01:43The Secretary General of the State Department, Mr. Dadan Kusdiona, said, the effort to increase oil production, among other things, through the acceleration of the production of development sources and the activation of the potential MIGAS block, which is still ideal.
01:56In addition, the Reserve Production Program, Enchanted Oil Recovery, and Massive Exploration are also carried out as sources for IDX Juno.
02:03Yes, viewers, to discuss our theme this time, maintaining the consistency of the oil production target in 2024, we have connected via Zoom with Mr. Satya Yuda, an oil and gas observer.
02:19Then there is Mr. Moshe Rizal, Chairman of the Asper MIGAS Investment Committee.
02:24Good morning, Mr. Satya, Moshe.
02:27Good morning, Mr. Rizal.
02:28Good morning, Mr. Rizal.
02:30Thank you for your time, Mr. Satya and Mr. Moshe.
02:35Before that, we will review first the view of Mr. Moshe Rizal, the Asper MIGAS, as an industry actor himself.
02:44How do you see reviewing the conditions of our oil industry, especially if we talk about our theme this time until mid-year, Mr. Moshe?
02:54Yes, it is worrying, frankly.
02:58Because year on year, our production has always dropped.
03:03And since August last year, it has been below 600,000 barrels per day.
03:09And now it keeps dropping.
03:12On the one hand, 70% of our oil production has been held by Pertamina.
03:20So now the ball is in Pertamina and maybe other investors,
03:28on how to increase our oil production, which keeps dropping.
03:33On the other hand, this global situation is also very worrying.
03:39Where the IAEA report, for example, their outlook statement states that in 2029 there will be a global peak demand of 106 million barrels per day.
03:58This means there will be a shift in capital allocation.
04:05Where they will be more focused on low-risk products that are already real in the future.
04:13And now we see that IOC and NOC have now returned to their cage and also see more low-risk and potential potentials.
04:26While in Southeast Asia, the allocation of funds is very small compared to other regions in the world.
04:35And this will make it difficult for us to find other big players in Indonesia.
04:43To help Pertamina or help the country to develop and increase the oil industry now.
04:49So the situation is like that.
04:52Because there is a transition, global shifting, and so on.
04:56Moreover, the demand will decrease.
04:59On the one hand, the gas potential will still increase in the next 10-15 years.
05:07Why? Because there are many countries in Europe that are still using gas for their transition.
05:14America is also still using gas.
05:16And countries in Asia are also still using gas.
05:19That's why we have to focus on how we develop our gas.
05:25So that it can be used in the country.
05:29On the one hand, it can compete in the global market.
05:32Where the demand will continue to increase for the next 10-15 years.
05:37Okay, Mas Moshe. That's it.
05:39A review from Aspern Migas related to the lifting condition of our oil.
05:44It was mentioned earlier.
05:47Mr. Satya, what do you think?
05:49As an Aspern Migas observer, is what Aspern Migas said true?
05:53Or do you see that there are certain factors that make our oil lifting tend to decrease?
05:58Go ahead.
06:00Everything is related to how our energy industry will be in the future.
06:09Because the issue of energy transition will continue to exist and flourish everywhere.
06:17So that international players or IOC players are also confused.
06:24To be honest, many Migas industries have changed their names to energy industries.
06:31That's actually because they want to shift from fossil to renewable.
06:38But it looks like they are looking for a shape.
06:41I have attended several COPs.
06:44The last one was COP 28.
06:49I attended COP 20.
06:50There were many discussions about how the possibility of energy transition can be carried out in a local or regional and global context.
07:05Apparently, the targets of each country are different.
07:10The goal is the same, but the target is different.
07:12Therefore, in the G20 meeting in Bali last year, it was very clear that it was not possible to communicate.
07:22Because each country cannot be expected to do the same scenario.
07:28But after we learn more, apparently they are more open to energy security in each country.
07:36So if we talk about energy security, of course, supply and affordability are the main factors in future energy management in each country.
07:50That's why I was not surprised when Mr. Rizal said that the IOC returned to its cage.
07:57Because the demands from each country became a must today.
08:02In the context of Indonesia, it is also the same.
08:06We also try to understand how we have a commitment in Paris to reduce carbon emissions.
08:13Our NDC is quite ambitious, the target is quite large.
08:17Even now, in 2030 alone, it has reached 31.5 percent, the previous one was 29 percent.
08:24This has shown that we do intend to reduce carbon emissions in the future.
08:28In some scenarios, we see that the best thing to do is the land, forest, and energy sectors.
08:39In the energy sector, of course, fossil fuels are an extraordinary magnet to reduce carbon emissions.
08:47If we can transition to new energy and renewable energy.
08:52Back to the global atmosphere, we are trapped in a local atmosphere, we want to transition.
09:02There are many strategies that have been developed, even a little neglected.
09:10Because the issue of oil and gas cannot be taken for granted.
09:15This must be managed properly because the atmosphere is different.
09:18Mr. Mulyani said that there is a significant decrease because the field is old and requires more expensive technology.
09:29I am grateful for that.
09:32At least there is an understanding that this cannot be left as it was in the 1970s.
09:39In the 1970s, with light regulations, they were aware and volunteered to develop the field easily because it was commercially viable.
09:54This is interesting. Shifting energy is the basis.
09:59Is this also felt by entrepreneurs or the industry itself?
10:04Mr. Mose, maybe you can explain more about shifting energy.
10:09Is it a little neglected if we can underline it like that?
10:13We will discuss it in the next segment.
10:15Mr. Mose and Mr. Yuda, we will be right back.
10:35Mr. Pemirsa, maintaining the consistency of the productivity of oil in Indonesia.
10:42Is our oil industry currently at a crossroads?
10:46We will ask for an explanation from Mr. Mose Rizal and Mr. Asper Megas.
10:50There were several points mentioned by Mr. Satya.
10:54Where there is an energy transition, there is a gap in this position between shifting.
11:00How about you, Mr. Mose, as an actor of Megas or oil industry itself?
11:07I agree with Mr. Satya.
11:10The majority of countries will focus on energy security, energy affordability, and energy transition.
11:20The first and second points will always be a priority for many countries because they want to develop their economy.
11:27So there must be energy availability that must be secured by the country.
11:32And that is a duty of the country.
11:34On the one hand, energy must be provided by the country in an affordable way for the people, for the community, and also for the industry.
11:43To increase the direct economy of the country.
11:48So that will always be a priority.
11:51On the one hand, energy transition will continue to be pushed.
11:55And it will run in parallel too.
11:58However, we cannot equalize the affordability earlier.
12:03Because if we jump directly, for example, directly transition to renewable energy.
12:08At this time it is still very expensive.
12:10And Western countries are also still confused about how they transition properly.
12:17Without touching the progress of their economy or economic growth.
12:26It is the West that is so advanced, especially us.
12:33And we have many dilemmas.
12:36We are an island country.
12:38And if you look at the size of the country, it is much larger than Europe.
12:43So for us to make an energy policy and implement an energy policy as a whole, as an integration.
12:53In Indonesia, it is much more difficult than many other countries.
12:58That's what we need to encourage the government and give input to the government.
13:04How do we manage this energy?
13:07We can't leave fossil fuels for a short time.
13:10We have to keep pushing.
13:11On the one hand, we also have to transition.
13:14How do we maintain affordability and energy security in Indonesia?
13:19To be able to sustain.
13:22To maintain our economic growth above 5%.
13:26If possible, more than 5%.
13:30Because of the new government.
13:32That's what we have to do.
13:35Fossil fuels will continue to be pushed by the government to meet the needs.
13:43If we look at the demand in Indonesia,
13:48even though the percentage of fossil fuels will decrease every year,
13:54the volume will still be higher every year.
13:58It will increase.
14:00So we can't reduce our production.
14:02We only see a small percentage.
14:06But in terms of volume, we are increasing.
14:08Why? Our economic growth, our population is also growing.
14:12So energy needs will continue to increase.
14:15We need all the energy we have and our potential is extraordinary.
14:21In terms of renewables, in terms of fossil fuels, we all have it in Indonesia.
14:26That's what we have to take advantage of.
14:27How do we focus our production to meet the needs of the country?
14:33Okay, that's interesting.
14:35Mr. Satya Yudhoyon, what do you think?
14:37Can our energy needs be met?
14:40If we look at the transition period,
14:44from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
14:46How is it?
14:48We know that the volume continues to increase from year to year.
14:51With the number of motor vehicles sold,
14:54or household energy needs that continue to increase.
14:58If we look at our current energy needs per day,
15:04we are still importing.
15:06So in fact, energy security is more open than energy independence.
15:13We are still not independent in energy.
15:16Because our final energy demand is still dominated by fossil fuels.
15:21Even in the forecast of the National Energy Policy,
15:26which I was involved in at the National Energy Council,
15:30our final energy demand is around 478 million tons of oil equivalent.
15:35That's in 2060.
15:37We consider that the fossil itself is around 28%.
15:43Because 72% is already renewables.
15:46But the volume that is needed is still high.
15:51So we can't side with what we have today.
15:55Because if we look at the needs,
15:59our final energy demand is quite large and rising,
16:04then the need to manage our natural resources
16:08becomes something that we have to do from time to time.
16:11We can't just leave fossil fuels and move on to renewables.
16:17That's not a good thing.
16:19If we know the scenario and the graphics,
16:23then why oil and natural gas must be managed properly.
16:28I am grateful and happy that Andaman has a large potential reserve.
16:35Although it still goes through a process,
16:37because in the world of natural gas, we know there is a proven reserve.
16:42We know there is a proven and probable,
16:45and we also know there is a proven, probable, and possible reserve.
16:49So there are some that we have to stimulate to become a proven reserve.
16:54But that's a good step.
16:57There is also a problem with oil and natural gas.
17:00But it must be remembered that it is the result of exploration that has been done for a while.
17:04But we can only enjoy it for the next 4-5 years.
17:08We can't correlate that new discovery with lifting, for example.
17:14It becomes something that is very mismatched.
17:18So what I mean here is that exploration cannot be stopped.
17:23Because exploration is a daily job that must be done
17:27to increase our reserve-replacement ratio.
17:29So if the reservoir is drained, it must be replaced.
17:34Only then can we measure the reserve-replacement parameter.
17:38If we stop it, the impact will be long-term.
17:42That's why in this good discussion, we say that exploration must be started every moment.
17:51We can't say that we already have this, we slow down first.
17:54In fact, if we look at it in a strategy to maintain production,
18:00we see that we still use existing facilities.
18:05But we can calculate, maybe you can also calculate,
18:10if for example the work over is done several times on the same site,
18:14we do drilling, what is the output of the cost we do?
18:19What I'm worried about is that we need a number that will have to be confirmed.
18:24What I'm worried about is that we are drilling from existing reservoirs,
18:30the cost is much more expensive than we do new exploration.
18:34This must be a concern so that later we can take the right strategy.
18:42What I'm worried about is that we see the realization target from June 2023,
18:49and if we compare it to now, it is clearly decreasing.
18:54Because in terms of lifting production, there is a realization, a target.
19:02What is the target? According to APBN, the target is commitment.
19:07If the target is commitment, we usually say the target is from BPNB.
19:11So it is a program and budget that is discussed intensively between the government and the contractors.
19:18We have seen an indication that the realization of lifting in 2023 is around 605.7 barrels of oil per day.
19:30Today is not like that.
19:32In June, for example, this does not reflect the realization last year.
19:38Of course, we have to think again about what we have to do.
19:43Thank you, Mr. Satya, for an interesting analysis.
19:47Lastly, what do you see as a team?
19:51What is expected to fill this transition period?
19:54Reservoirs that can meet the existing conditions,
19:58such as the demand for oil.
20:02I agree with Mr. Satya.
20:05Indeed, I see that the conditions are quite worrisome from the actions taken by many K3S,
20:11where the focus is on new drilling, walkover, etc.
20:17Walkover can only maintain the production level.
20:24But to increase production, there are two things.
20:29Exploration, which Mr. Satya said earlier, and secondly, the EOR.
20:33We also have to choose the EOR that is in line with the conditions of our fields.
20:39Why? Because the depleting is already too far.
20:42So if we choose an expensive EOR with a large capex,
20:47which needs 5, 10, or 15 years of development before entering the full field,
20:54I'm afraid it will be too late.
20:57The production is already too far.
20:59The cost to increase production will be far more expensive and ultimately not economical.
21:03So we have to choose the EOR technology that is accurate,
21:08which is in line with the conditions of our reservoirs that have been depleted,
21:12so it's cheap, which is already proven out there,
21:15and without using a very large capital cost.
21:21That's a lot out there and it's now being applied in many countries.
21:26That's what we have to focus on.
21:27So misusing EOR technology will also have an impact on our production.
21:35These are the two challenges we have.
21:38So the challenges are still many.
21:41Maybe the dynamics on the road will be quite complicated.
21:46We just have to wait for the commitment, the execution,
21:49with all the policies that have been done to support the MIGAS industry,
21:54especially in Indonesia.
21:55Thank you very much for your time and sharing.
21:58Thank you also for the insight you have shared with us today.
22:02Good luck with your activities.
22:05Thank you.
22:07Thank you.
22:09Mr. Mirsa, I have been with you for an hour in Market Review.
22:13Keep sharing your information only on IDXNL,
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22:18Don't forget to watch the First Session Closing program,
22:21which will air at 11.30 p.m. WEST INDONESIA time.
22:23Because the future must move forward.
22:26I am Investor Saham.
22:28I am Prasetya Wibo.
22:30Thank you and see you again.
22:53Investor Saham.
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