MLB Post-All-Star Game: Odds and Best Bets for Second Half
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00:00The Major League Baseball All-Star break is over. A full slate on this Friday
00:06starts the second half and the stretch run of this long 162 we call the regular
00:11season in MLB. Again we'll say it every team around the bigs all 30
00:17organizations have played at least 95 games of their 162 but we'll refer to it
00:24as the second half after the All-Star break. We're just over a week and a half
00:28away from the end of July that's the trade deadline the next big date if you
00:33will in the calendar of Major League Baseball. So let's look at where the
00:38market is that the All-Star break is done and action resumes on the diamond
00:43on this Friday where it is now and where it was at the start of this 2024 MLB
00:51campaign on opening day. The Dodgers open this year as the short favorites to win
00:57a World Series plus 320. They were over a dollar in front of the Atlanta Braves
01:02the Astros had the third best price at 7 to 1 best out of the American League the
01:07Yankees 9 to 1 the O's and the Rangers of course Texas the reigning World Series
01:11champs at 14 to 1 in the Phil's a 15 to 1 price. On the right side of that table
01:19DRS the current prices so let's rattle them off quickly. The Dodgers still
01:23remain exactly where they were the favorites at plus 320 but the biggest
01:29changes of course the Phillies up the board only a dollar behind LA plus 420
01:33the Yankees have vaulted in front of the Astros Houston still one of the ten best
01:38prices the Orioles and the Braves still remain in the top five and of course the
01:44Texas Rangers four games under 500 at the All-Star break a 60 to 1 number now
01:50to go back-to-back as a World Series champ. Yeah I really have any issues here
01:54to start the season always thought it would be the Dodgers here because on
01:57paper the best team in baseball and as we know we keep talking about this when
02:01you get to the deadline there are no strangers to adding on and adding
02:04superstar players not just a bench bat or another bullpen arm you take a look
02:08at the Braves the Astros the Yankees the Orioles the Rangers and the Phillies that
02:11made sense now granted sometimes it's a little bit of you know hindsight at this
02:15port at this point you take a look at the Philadelphia Phillies at that 15 to
02:181 price to open the season maybe that was a little bit higher than expected
02:22compared to the Braves at a plus 450 they might have been a little bit closer
02:25intact because coming into the season I still thought the Phillies had a great
02:28shot to win but the MO really the Phillies is what let's meander around
02:32for the first part of the season turn it on we need to the superstars of play in
02:35a way we go into the playoffs we have a good one-two punch so maybe that was a
02:38little bit off but I can't fault the people for saying hey Rangers just won
02:41the World Series 14 to 1 extremely talented they'll get some of those
02:44starting pitchers back around midseason and away they go now they certainly have
02:48fallen off now take a look at the updated odds here to win the World
02:51Series again still talking about some of those odd points where it's the Dodgers
02:55it's expected to be a contender in the playoffs and we agree I just don't
02:59believe right now the favorite should be the Dodgers because sometimes it is what
03:03have you shown me on the field and you might get that argument bent two three
03:07four weeks into the season you're not getting that argument now as we sit on
03:10July 19th the Phillies are the best team here I just think they should be priced
03:13accordingly to that standpoint but I understand how the odds work and how
03:17they get to those numbers and the expectations at the end of the season
03:20because once again you're not winning the World Series on October the 1st you
03:24got to make it to the playoffs and you have to play well in the playoffs and
03:27the Dodgers certainly will be a contender at that time honestly I think
03:31that's the most interesting data point of all the market movement we have seen
03:36since the end of March opening day to where we are now at the end of the
03:40All-Star break the Phillies are the best team in baseball 62 wins the most in the
03:44All right it made sense their number that was already relatively short has
03:48grown dramatically shorter to win a World Series also with the postseason
03:52pedigree the fightings have had the last two years appearances in the NLCS the
03:57Astros and the Rangers have struggled okay their prices grow a little bit
04:02longer the Yankees the O's they're pretty much based on expectation in the
04:07Braves have taken some knocks no doubt based on injuries so their price moves a
04:12little bit but the Dodgers have remained exactly the same not 10 cents
04:17longer not a dollar shorter LA is still very good they're leading the National
04:22League West by seven games they have the second best record in the NL albeit six
04:27and a half games behind Philadelphia there's still 15 games above 500 at 56
04:33and 41 but to have the exact same number way back in March to where they are now
04:41nearing the end of July is fascinating to me because the Dodgers entered the
04:46All-Star break losing eight of their last 11 games the Dodgers have so much
04:51talent on the injured list I think there's a compelling argument you can
04:54make that LA's IL team could be its current day roster emerging here out of
05:00the All-Star break mainly in their starting staff in the arms they have on
05:04the bump in the Dodgers have stayed the exact same you would have thought Donnie
05:10maybe some movement in the numbers based on how the Dodgers ended that
05:14first half entering the All-Star break but I think the odds makers are reluctant
05:18knowing all the talent that awaits and probably some big moves to be made in
05:23the next 11 days before the MLB trade deadline yeah it's the same thing we
05:27started equated to other sports which we like to do to give that you know you
05:30know advantage and say well has there ever been a precedent that's going to be
05:34set the Brooklyn Nets in the NBA if they were going to get healthy back in the
05:37day with James Harden and Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant obviously the regular
05:41season is thrown out the window because you're measured on what you can do in
05:44the playoffs and the bookmakers thought that if Brooklyn could make it to the
05:47playoffs and be completely healthy they would be able to do damage well through
05:51the same wavelength but the Dodgers aren't struggling to make the playoffs
05:54they're going to win the NL West they're going to be in the playoffs and probably
05:57the number two overall seed with a great path to meet up against the Philadelphia
06:00Phillies in the NLCS just want to have home field advantage which does make it
06:04a little bit tougher but once again that point driven home in the past the
06:07absolute superstars that the Dodgers are able to acquire at the deadline is
06:11unlike anything that we even attempt to look forward to because if everybody
06:15could do what they would if the Guardians could go at the deadline to
06:17get the top two pitchers on the market they would do it the Yankees and the
06:20Mets but it seems like the Dodgers operate in a different stratosphere
06:23where they always have prospects why because they have a great farming system
06:28and a great scouting department continues to reload in that
06:31international market and also when you ask them hey boy we're gonna go over
06:35that tax threshold they don't care it's the Los Angeles market those owners are
06:39buying in to win baseball games not worrying about their money because when
06:42they decide to sell the Los Angeles Dodgers that's when the windfall is
06:46going to come that's why that price is priced so accordingly because we are
06:50expecting yes the Dodgers have talent on the IL we'll get all of those guys back
06:54which most franchises will say that's the best trade we can make just getting
06:58guys healthy at the break and I agree with that but the Dodgers don't think
07:01that way the Dodgers might go out and pull like an all-star player to go in
07:04their outfield which is already jammed with talent or go like hey we have
07:07addition to make a first base move here even they have an unbelievable first
07:11baseman that's the embarrassment of riches that the Dodgers operate under
07:14and that's why they're the favorite so we have some movement in the numbers
07:19right the Rangers have moved back by a ton 14 to 1 now 60 to 1 the Astros were
07:247 to 1 before the year now 20 to 1 but the Rangers are the only team of that
07:30list of seven that you see on your screen that had one of the seven
07:34shortest numbers to contend for a World Series before the year got underway that
07:39is now outside the top ten the Astros still in the top ten the twins were in
07:44the top ten before the year got underway that's where Minnesota remains Cleveland
07:49best record in the American League a half game better right now than that of
07:53Baltimore also in one of the ten best prices to win a World Series and the
07:58Brewers round out the top ten at 25 to 1 you saw that screen right there DRS
08:04those top ten prices to win a World Series is there a bet that you would
08:08advise people to make right here right now at the end of the all-star break
08:12before that first day of the second half officially begins later this afternoon
08:17yeah I think you're gonna get a little bit though the two teams that you
08:21probably look at right if you're gonna make it advantage like the Dodgers at a
08:23plus 320 price how much value do they have well values in the eye of the
08:26beholder if they win the World Series 320 is an unbelievable price I think the
08:30Phillies also have some value at a plus 420 price but when you're looking for
08:34true numbers that can make an impact here when those lottery tickets of
08:37course gonna look at 50 and 60 to 1 but let's just stay in that top 5 or top 6
08:41I've been telling you all along about the Yankees at a plus 550 price let's be
08:45honest with ourselves you can't win the World Series unless you get to the World
08:49Series to put it in its simplest form so if you're looking at the Yankees and
08:52the Orioles 7 to 1 and plus 550 I don't see anybody challenging those two teams
08:57to make it to the World Series so I think you have a great shot here if you
09:01pick if one not the other one if that makes sense at those prices I think
09:05they're both gonna wind up making deep runs in the playoffs and whoever wins
09:08that division is going to have a leg up and for me it's still the Yankees but if
09:11you take that 7 to 1 price on the O's I can't fault you for that one of those
09:14two teams will be there more market movement in the pennant price we mark
09:20the movement in the World Series odds here at the end of the all-star break
09:24with the first full Friday slate of the second half about to begin this
09:28afternoon into the evening hours we do the same case study with those pennant
09:32prices we start in the American League the six shortest numbers entering this
09:37year on opening day that was March 28th to where we are now on Friday July 19th
09:43following the MLB all-star break numbers on your left opening day numbers
09:49on your right that is the current odds the Astros were the favorites the
09:54Yankees had the second best number now the current favorites Baltimore and
09:58Texas like they were in the World Series numbers tied for those third best prices
10:03plus 650 for Texas plus 650 for the O's Baltimore now that second best price
10:09Seattle has remained the same the twins have some positive market movement as
10:13well down by two and a half dollars so again Donnie it's really only the
10:19Rangers the reigning World Series champs and of course had an optimistic odds
10:23outlook in either the World Series market or the AL pennant prices that
10:27have seen the worst market movement against them yeah and again we're
10:31looking at those numbers here and you usually like oh man the odds makers are
10:35way off again you're getting a steal I don't have any arguments or any
10:38problems with Astros Yankees Rangers Orioles Mariners and twins even in that
10:43order we expected the twins to be good we expected the Mariners to compete out
10:46West we expected the Astros were always in the mix for the playoffs to be there
10:50and now you take a look at them finally hitting that gas pedal and maybe should
10:53be the favorites over the second half of the season to win the AL West at that
10:57point and somebody's gonna say like yeah well you should have known a team that
11:00wins the World Series gonna completely fall off like no nobody knows that here
11:03and the Rangers just might be getting their you know legs under them right now
11:06just a few games under 500 to compete in a West that's certainly up for grabs
11:10at this point so I do like the job that the odds makers made and just showing
11:14that because sometimes you can just punch holes in arguments I look at those
11:17numbers and say yeah that sounds about right to me and despite really the
11:22struggles for the Astros for a good majority of the opening half of this
11:25year 33 and 14 even on June 18th just over a month ago the price never got
11:32much longer than that eight to one nine to one mark plus 800 is where they
11:37enter the second half of this season really the biggest story is the current
11:41AL pennant odds in some large movement from teams that were not in the top six
11:46best prices the reason we highlight six that's the number of teams that make the
11:51expanded postseason of course in each league let's start with the negative to
11:56begin the Toronto Blue Jays seventh best price at ten to one to win the American
12:01League pennant before the year got underway now a hundred and fifty to one
12:06we expect the Blue Jays to be sellers ahead of the deadline maybe ever so
12:11trading Vladimir Guerrero jr. Boba yet and that ten to one number Donnie
12:16pretty reflective of what the last few off seasons have been for Toronto
12:20expected to maybe make a run but never truly matching expectation no it's
12:26certainly not and again going back to the odds makers was anybody looking at
12:30Toronto they should go like yes probably they sell that entire team this
12:33was a team that was supposed to be built for a decade plus with superstars the
12:36money behind them a good ownership group a good general manager to make that push
12:40and challenge the Boston Red Sox and the Yankees and the Orioles and Tampa Bay
12:44quite frankly one of the more challenging divisions in baseball to
12:47operate if you are a general manager so we are sort of shocked to see this
12:50because sometimes you have to weigh the now in the future like are you a better
12:54team and if you say it just didn't work because we're playing in such a good
12:57division let's trade everybody away and start again that's a tough sell there
13:00they renovated the Rogers Center out there they were ready for a big baseball
13:04season and young superstars to try to provide it and they just might be
13:07piecemealing away to say you know what we can't compete with the Yankees the
13:10Orioles at this point right now the Red Sox are playing better maybe we'll
13:13retool for the future which is tough to sell a market that's used to having
13:16success and spending some money the biggest market movement in a positive
13:21way two teams that would be in the American League postseason bracket if
13:24the season ended today at the end of the all-star break the Guardians the
13:28champions of the American League Central would be the top team in the AL 21 to 1
13:34they're not on that list that's the list we need 21 to 1 before the year got
13:37underway slash that price in third 7 to 1 now on Cleveland and the Red Sox down
13:44by nearly half 30 to 1 take $14 off Boston 11 games above 500 now a 16 to 1
13:51price the Sox that third and final a wildcard spot at this current moment now
13:56let's go to the National League and again Donnie some movement in the prices
14:00but not really the structure of the teams it was the big two before the year
14:06it was LA in Atlanta with Philly trailing ever so slightly behind at an
14:118 to 1 price again opening day numbers on your left current day pennant prices
14:16on your right now it's still really the big two but it's LA and Philadelphia in
14:22the Braves in that third spot but again even after Atlanta or Philadelphia on
14:27opening day a large drop-off to every other team in the National League no
14:33doubt about it and rightfully so we knew was gonna be the big three coming into
14:36it but you figured that the Braves would be much more of a threat and rightfully
14:40so but you can't predict injuries too and we're not talking about like hey man
14:44that guy was a key to the rotation now you might be talking about the best
14:46pitcher in the National League coming into the season in Spencer Strider oh
14:50well you lose a cooing and he was okay no I'm like an MVP coming into the
14:54season you can't survive that so shout out the Braves just for hanging around
14:58because you're leaning on guys like Chris Sale and Reynoldo Lopez if I told
15:01you before the season you're gonna lose Strider you're gonna lose Acuna and
15:04your two top pitchers are Chris Sale and Reynoldo Lopez you like yeah they might
15:08just be retooling entirely in Atlanta and giving up on the season that's what's
15:12so impressive at this point so you see the updated numbers right Dodgers still
15:15in first place which again I disagree with Philly's just behind them in
15:18closing that gap and then you see the Braves at a plus 450 where similar to
15:21what I was talking about with the Houston Astros I just don't see them
15:24recovering from 10 or so games under 500 they did once the Braves were done I
15:29told you they probably weren't gonna win this division they would still make the
15:31playoffs but not do any damage in the playoffs but the guy that I wanted to
15:35keep an eye on as we were talking about yesterday
15:37Reynoldo Lopez if he has an ERA under 2 and Sale has a 2 why can't they compete
15:41at this point nobody saw that coming here so sometimes you have to adjust
15:44your evaluations of what you saw for the first couple months because if those
15:47evaluations continue like Sale and Reynoldo Lopez being one of the best one
15:52two punches in baseball sure they can compete in the playoffs and they really
15:56are going to plus 450 yes they trail the Phil's by eight and a half games in the
16:00National League East but comfortably in that top spot in the wild card chase the
16:05other two wild card teams currently in the National League the Cardinals and
16:09the Mets both at 30 to 1 both prices have grown longer since opening day but
16:15again it kind of goes to say that even if you're in the postseason mix your
16:19odds outlook not all that great past LA Atlanta or Philadelphia the Cubbies have
16:24seen a lot of movement they're in the cellar of the National League Central
16:28the Diamondbacks the reigning NL pennant winners backed by eight bucks but they
16:32have won eight of their last twelve to get back to above 500 for the first time
16:37in a while individual award races in MLB next all of the individual award races
16:44that had a price of a fan dual sports book on opening day and still do that's
16:49our last step of market movement here at the conclusion of the MLB all-star break
16:54we start in the American League on your left preseason favorite on your right
16:59that current favorite with the odds associated in the American League it was
17:04a Yankee to win the MVP award but it was Juan Soto now it's Aaron judge at
17:09minus 370 judge did have the second best price behind his Bronx teammate at a
17:14seven to one number Corbin Burns has the second best price now but Terrence
17:18scruble is the favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award this
17:22tidbit from our producer Joe Friso as you will see here in the next five
17:26minutes the only preseason favorite in any of the 12 award markets American
17:31League National League combined that is still the current favorite Wyatt Langford
17:36the rookie for the Rangers at plus 250 to win the AL rookie of the year before
17:41the season plus 135 now you see comeback player reliever of the year manager of
17:47the year as well that's a pretty interesting tidbit on Wyatt Langford
17:52still the favorite to an AL rook of the year no it's an interesting market to
17:57look at overall because if gambling was so easy Ben they would just line up the
18:01odds like yep that's exactly how they're gonna finish from opening day
18:04all the way through the season that's why if you handicap do you do diligence
18:07to get a little bit of luck you can find some really good pricing compared to
18:10what we saw from the beginning of the season to what you're now getting now
18:13and again just looking at the MVP market over there in the AL judge and Soto of
18:17course judge deserve to be a minus 370 price here and then we'll get to the
18:21American League in the MVP there of course those guys should be favorites
18:24but it's interesting always to see where those price points started and where
18:28they're at now because a lot of times you can be that armchair quarterback I
18:31knew this guy was gonna do this no you didn't otherwise you would have had it
18:35on opening day at that point. AL manager of the year AJ Hinch of the Tigers was
18:40the short favorite entering but it's another American League central team
18:44with a young skipper Steven Vogt in his first year at the helm in the land that
18:49has the Guardians in first in the AL central and a minus 155 price to win AL
18:55manager of the year now to the National League Ronald Acuna jr. reigning NL MVP
19:00was the favorite before the year at five to one about two weeks into the season
19:04it was Mookie Betts but Mookie Betts placed on the IL now it's Shohei Otani
19:09at a minus 380 price the biggest movement is for Chris Sale in pretty
19:15much every category his Atlanta teammates Spencer Strider short favorite
19:20to win the National League Cy Young Award at plus 380 but of course out for
19:24the remainder of this season sale on opening day Donnie 35 to 1 now plus 125
19:31less than half a buck in front of Zach Wheeler who had the second best price
19:35for the Phil's before the year behind Strider still the second best number
19:39behind another Atlanta starter yeah it's wild there you take a look at that MVP
19:43mark at the start and Shohei Otani coming in at that plus 950 price because
19:47coming to the National League he's going to lose some luster not because he's a
19:50superstar player changing leads and going to a new team that has a lot of
19:53great prospects already for MVP on it but we expected him to be pitching he's
19:58not pitching he's only a DH therefore you get that down made it close to 10
20:01to 1 and then you find that he's a minus 380 price because he's unbelievable at
20:05the plate and due to injuries and some other things happening in the National
20:08League he deserves to be the favorite it'll be interesting because I think
20:11that line can certainly shorten up by the end of the season as long as most of
20:16the guys in that top five top six say healthy I don't think he's going to run
20:19away unless we see something historic 65 home runs 150 RBI something in that
20:24range but when you are taking a look at that Cy Young market nobody saw this
20:27from Chris sale you thought maybe he could reach back to those White Sox days
20:30and early Red Sox days and say you know what show me a glimpse of that over a
20:34couple weeks to try to help us out here and you can be our third or fourth
20:37starter on this team he's now taking over it's quite frankly the ace of that
20:40staff due to injury but that's one of those leaps that I don't think anybody's
20:44just saying here you know what I knew sale was going to bounce back and be the
20:46best pitcher in the National League here before the season started that
20:49wasn't happening sell a hefty favorite at minus 600 as well to win the NL
20:54comeback player of the year 13 wins the most in Major League Baseball a 13 and
20:59three record a 270 e r a of course one of the stories of this first half of the
21:06MLB campaign Paul skeins and what he has done in the 11 skeins days in the
21:11history of Major League Baseball now minus 1100 to a National League rookie
21:16of the year they're already etching out his name on the hardware in the trophy
21:20right now maybe the more compelling argument for skeins that five-to-one
21:24price third best to win NL Cy Young that could become drastically shorter if the
21:29Pittsburgh Pirates now at 500 the all-star break 48 and 48 can rally here
21:35in the second half of the year to be an NL wildcard contention and then one
21:40final thing from a narrative perspective great counsel of course the
21:43bombshell leaving the Brewers in the offseason to become the manager of the
21:47Chicago Cubs a little bit of a ha ha moment as Pat Murphy in his first year
21:52as Milwaukee's manager is the favorite to win NL manager of the year our number
21:58two starts after the break here on sports