With less than four months until the US presidential election, the government in Berlin is preparing for the possibility of a Trump victory. How could his return impact Germany and the EU?
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00:00With around four months to go before the U.S. elects a new president for four years,
00:04the German government has already been preparing for the prospect of a second Donald Trump government.
00:09But how could Trump's return to the White House affect Europe's biggest economy and the EU?
00:15Philipp Madonek from the German Council on Foreign Relations
00:18warns that security policy, economic policy and foreign policy are set to change.
00:30I don't think it would be surprising if Trump would make his statements about how he would deal with tariffs and tariffs in trade.
00:42On the other hand, the China policy of the U.S. will clearly also influence the transatlantic relationship.
00:52And Trump has already shown in the first term, but also now,
00:58that security policy is no longer as natural as it was for Europe, but also for Germany as a very close ally of the U.S.
01:08Regional Director of the German Marshall Fund, Sutter David Wilp,
01:12says Germany and the EU are preparing for the scenario that the U.S. would decrease its presence in Europe
01:17and instead turn its attention to the Indo-Pacific.
01:21Most people in Berlin reckon that Ukraine is going to be the responsibility for Europe moving forward
01:29when it comes to both defence and reconstruction.
01:32Obviously, it's important that the United States still plays a role,
01:35but most Europeans are betting that either administration is going to expect Europe to take the lead on Ukraine.
01:44Whilst the German government has been preparing well behind the scene for a potential second Trump term,
01:51his unpredictability is still of concern.
01:54Trump is known for making quick, rash decisions and deals his way
01:59that could potentially change the course of history not just for Ukraine and China, but also the Middle East.
02:05Liv Stroud, in Berlin, for Euronews.