MLB Best Bets for Thursday's Slate | Mets vs Braves
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00:00All right time to round all of them touch all four it's time for the daily basis
00:11Always keeping us on our toes throwing in the Joe Lisi Craig when the time feels right
00:18Craig as we look at what has happened this week and this season in the subway series between the Yankees and the Mets
00:26Dominated by the Amazons four games four victories over the Yanks booked as an underdog in
00:33all
00:34For what does it tell you about where the two ball clubs in the Big Apple are this season with the Mets?
00:42Sweeping the subway series against the Yankees this year
00:45Oof, I would not want to go on social media or go online today
00:50I mean, you're seeing it all, you know fire Cashman fire Boone fire right side fire everybody. I mean, it's all out there
00:58I mean look, you know, I we talked about this probably a few weeks ago and
01:03The season is very long and I understand that the Yankees are playing their worst brand of baseball season and but again
01:09You know, they did the same thing last year
01:10They had a period of time where they couldn't score any runs. They didn't make a lot of adjustments to their roster
01:15They're very fortunate that they got off to the start that they got off to
01:18So therefore in the end they're gonna be in the postseason picture and my guess is they'll add some pieces and guys they're gonna win
01:24They're 88 90 games, whatever it is
01:26And you know probably gonna get knocked out in the first or second round
01:29Which is what I thought would happen at the beginning of the year
01:30Anyway, now the Mets on the other hand, let's give some credit before we take down the Yankees here
01:36I mean, this was a very big series for them
01:38They split their four game set with the Marlins coming out of the break some speculation on maybe the Mets are gonna sell
01:44They're not so good
01:45I don't know that they're gonna buy anything guys
01:47But the Mets have put themselves firmly in the race for the wild card at this point
01:51Which was not something that people thought would happen at the beginning of the season
01:55Yeah, I am impressed by what the Mets are doing. You're right right now. They would be in the playoffs
01:58We'll see if they make some moves at the trade deadline other moves being made across Major League Baseball
02:03And the headline that I think the New York Post had if you ain't cheating you ain't trying Alex Gore
02:09Extended by the boss by the Boston Red Sox for another three years here
02:13Good move bad move and also puts that eye down Aaron Boone. Should he get re-upped as well at this time?
02:19Yeah, look Cora without question is a very good manager
02:24And and I'm really happy to see this because he has gone through it
02:29From being at the top to being at the bottom being in the middle
02:32He's been through different general managers, and they've tried to do things a different way
02:37And he seems like a very good stabilizing force every manager in the end on he's only gonna be worth two or three wins
02:42I think over the course of the season it's not gonna be a lot more than that
02:46But he's one of those guys that just is very even keel and has done a great job
02:51I think since taking over there, and so I'm happy to see him extended and was you know a marginal player
02:57I would say at best in the big leagues
02:58But a phenomenal manager, and I don't I think he'll be in it for the long haul with them as far as Boone is concerned
03:05We're gonna judge this at the end of the year. I don't think anything is gonna happen right now
03:09So I guess let's see
03:11You know how far the Yankees go if they make the postseason and get bounced in the first round
03:15I think they'll probably make a change
03:17I think that's fair to say but as we've seen he's been through this before has Boone
03:21You know lots of yelling and screaming lots of winning some losing and then in the end he ends up
03:26You know fighting to live another day, so I think that'll probably happen at the end of the year
03:31Boston taking some knocks since the all-star break they were swept over the weekend in Los Angeles lost a midweek set to the Rockies
03:39This week at Coors, Colorado scored 20 runs yesterday at Coors Field at mile-high
03:45Against the Red Sox now we go to the top team in the National League Central the Milwaukee Brewers in one of their stars
03:53Offensively reports late last night that Christian Yelich might require season-ending surgery on his back
04:01Craig is that going to happen?
04:03What's the timeline on Christian Yelich and if his season is already coming to a close?
04:08How does it change your outlook on the brew crew?
04:11Yeah, look, I'm not sure. I know from
04:14Yelich's time with the Marlins that this is not surprising nor unusual
04:19he's had back issues over the course of his career and
04:23There are some people that think that we've already seen the peak with him winning the MVP when he was traded from Miami to
04:28Milwaukee had a couple of back-to-back incredible seasons and then the back issues have
04:33You know come in again now the one thing that I'm not positive about here is
04:37At least from you know, seeing the quotes from from Yelich on this is he just supremely frustrated
04:43That this has happened again to him or is this serious enough where it's worse that he has to have the surgery
04:50I don't know the answer to that
04:51So, I don't know if this is like a knee-jerk reaction or if legitimately it's a worse injury than he's had in the past generally guys
04:58He's missed two to three weeks and then he's come back and played
05:01I don't know if that's gonna be the case this time around
05:03I kind of find it hard to believe that he it would not be around for September or October
05:07But at some point it does seem like he's gonna have to have some sort of surgery
05:11Yeah, it could be bad news there for the Brewers
05:14But some good news here for the Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw coming back to the mound today to pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers
05:20Craig what are the anticipations here for Clayton Kershaw moving forward for the Dodgers?
05:25Yeah, probably five innings today
05:27But this reminds me a lot of I don't know if you guys remember this back in like the 2000s where Clemens
05:33Would just come back for Houston or New York like halfway through the year June July pitch the rest of the season go into the postseason
05:41Honestly, I could see Kershaw doing this again next year where they're basically limiting him to 10-15 starts and hopefully help in the postseason
05:49I would temper the expectations right out of the gate. This is not Paul Skeen's pitch pitching today Kershaw
05:55This is his last year or next year will be his last year. But certainly I think against the Giants today
06:00You're looking at maybe 85 pitches. You're looking at five innings and
06:04Hopefully a close game Giants hitting the ball a little bit better lately. That's for sure
06:09Clayton Kershaw turned 36 years old in March today will be his first outing in what is year 17 of his Major League
06:17baseball career dating back to
06:192008 all
06:21With the Dodgers Craig Mish, we appreciate the time
06:24We'll see you in about 40 minutes on Newswire at 11 a.m. Eastern Time
06:29I'm sure you might look rather studious today on Newswire more MLB plays coming your way up next
06:35Sports grid social media accounts have been telling you it's time for some best bets and baseball breakdowns for the last 24 minutes
06:42So here we finally are only an eight game Thursday slate around MLB in a game this
06:49afternoon in Los Angeles the fourth and final game of a set in the California rivalry between the San Francisco
06:56Giants and the LA Dodgers you heard it from Craig Mish what he expects and
07:01anticipates out of Clayton Clayton Kershaw in his
07:042024 season debut the Dodgers a favorite at minus
07:09142 on the moneyline DRS the Dodgers took the first two games of this set
07:14They had won five straight following the all-star break yesterday their first loss, San Francisco
07:19Victorious eight to three who wins game number four and what do you think we see at a Kersh?
07:26Should be an interesting one at sometimes
07:27It's just about the hitting environment that you're going to be playing in now
07:30This game is 410 Eastern which means 110 out on the west coast that marine layer won't be there and sometimes like oh
07:35It's just gonna be nice in LA
07:3793 degrees at first pitch with close to 10 mile an hour winds blowing out
07:41That's gonna help the batters in this game now Logan Webb has been really good this season for the San Francisco Giants
07:47It would just take a look at even his last 60 days a 79 X fit minus any 3.15 X fit number
07:53That's fantastic. Now. Here's what you also have to watch out for
07:56Webb has been really good as I said
07:58But that Dodgers lineup over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching
08:01Way better than what it has been against left-handed pitching you take a look at a Oscar Hernandez
08:05Who's ripping the cover off the baseball only a 143 ISO power number?
08:09You take a look at Andy Paez and Oh 92 outside of that. Everybody is elevated. So including Paez and Heyward
08:16They're the only two guys below one weighted on base percentages here
08:19That's a really good presenting lineup here for the Los Angeles Dodgers to go up against Webb
08:23The question marks as always are going to come into what are we getting actually out of Clayton Kershaw?
08:29Healthy and ready to go five to six innings pitch one earned or two runs or less
08:33Then you're gonna be in this ballgame, but for my money today, it's not a fate of Clayton Kershaw
08:37It's just saying to myself. I got Logan Webb on the mound
08:39I pretty much know what I'm getting out of him as long as the bats don't go crazy for the Dodgers
08:43I think the San Francisco Giants can get a couple runs off Kershaw
08:47So I'll take the short plus money price here on the San Francisco Giants today
08:52Donnie I think it's a really sound strategy. You've got the ace for San Francisco in Logan Webb
08:57You've got Clayton Kershaw in name, but how long will we even see him in this outing?
09:03What exactly does that look like here to start year?
09:0617 the Dodgers have been great since the break victorious
09:09Of course in five of six keep an eye on a couple of hot bats by the way for San Francisco
09:14Elliott Ramos has been sensational a couple RV eyes yesterday in the eight-run affair for San Fran Tyler Fitzgerald
09:22Also had a streak of five straight game snap yesterday a home run in five straight
09:28But still got a couple of base knocks against the Dodgers. Can the New York Mets?
09:33Keep it moving after sweeping the subway series this season against the New York Yankees
09:39The Mets make the quick trip back from the Bronx to Queens to host the Atlanta Braves
09:44Braves had their second game of a doubleheader yesterday at home rained out against Cincinnati. So for the third consecutive day
09:52Chris sale is supposed to start a baseball game Atlanta and ever so slight favorite with the National League Cy Young favorite Chris
10:00Sale on the bump at Citi Field
10:02One would think that probably helps you out as a pitcher getting extra time off
10:06But sometimes they're just used to throwing every five to six days at this point now, that's no longer the case
10:10However, if you see that seven-and-a-half number you talk about the Braves you always initially want to go under Chris
10:16Dale's been very very good this year overall the Mets over the past 30 days
10:19Haven't hit left-handed pitching all that well
10:21That just means any lefty not maybe the best lefty right now in the National League for certain you take it over and you take
10:27See what the Atlanta Braves have to offer at the dish. It's not much here. I do think in the lot of right now
10:33It's telling Nick Alvarez Ozuna Olsen and Duval
10:35But I do think I did see that O'Reilly I want to say was activated off the fraternity list for today
10:40So he should be back in that lineup maybe to help them out Severino is not a great pitcher by any stretch
10:44But it seems like every pitcher that goes against the Atlanta Braves can have a great outing here
10:48I do think the Mets overall the better team, but I'm more likely to say to myself
10:51I'm gonna get a healthy rested Chris sale and a bad lineup for the Atlanta Braves in a division duel
10:57Obviously on the under at this point
11:00One of the two games of this eight-game slate that are in the evening hour
11:04Seven and a half the total San Diego looks for the sweep at the first baseball game of the day starting a little bit
11:09Afternoon in the nation's capital against the Nats Dylan sees on the bump the Padres a hefty road favorite
11:16Will it be a perfect three for three against Washington this week?
11:20Yeah, I want to go over the total because I can't look at that Patrick Corbin's on the mound
11:24But as you say that Patrick Corbin's been okay against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days
11:28But take a look at that Padres line up against lefties as a whole arise has been great
11:32Machado has been great camp Asano has been great through three at bats that doesn't count
11:36Everybody else has been terrible tough game the call but again, and they got to do it. It seems like an under to me
11:43San Diego scored 12 yesterday
11:45Luis Soraya a couple of RBI's jerks in pro for a couple of RBI's Kyle of gosh
11:50Yoka three ribbies yesterday a baseball with a New York
11:54Net only eight games on this Thursday Major League Baseball slate
11:59But we break them down for you and Donnie's final segment of this Thursday on the early line
12:04The money line coming up at 11 a.m. Eastern Time on SportsGrid radio a couple of midweek sets
12:12Continue for a fourth and final game in LA as we shared between the Dodgers and the Giants Clayton Kershaw season debut
12:19At the ravine also the case in Cleveland the Guardians hosting the Tigers for the fourth and final game of this set
12:27Cleveland has won the last two
12:28Looking for a series victory on this Thursday booked as the heavy favorites to make that a reality at minus
12:36166 yesterday DRS a 2-1 final it was Josh Naylor with an RBI single scoring his brother Bo Naylor
12:44That was the game-winning run late seven and a half the total today
12:48Might we see more offense or we stay it under once again in the land
12:52Something has to give today because the Cleveland Guardians offense hasn't been that great left-handed pitchers right-handed pitchers Ben
12:57It doesn't seem to matter here
12:59You take a look at Kenta Maeda if we have 13 pitchers on the card today because once again
13:03It's a short card past 60 days minimum of 20 innings pitch Kenta
13:06Maeda is 11th out of 13 pitchers with a 108 x-fifth minus which isn't terrible
13:11But also an ERA accompanying that if you like that metric
13:158.33 over the past 60 days if you're looking at his non-analytical numbers
13:20Which means what has actually happened to him at the plate his last 80 batters a 274 ISO
13:25Elevated a 437 weighted on base percentage elevated, but here's the issue
13:29You take a look at Martinez batting in the 2-hole today a 178 ISO and a 3 sub
13:34Excuse me 329 weighted on base percentage. They're not marginally above average here. You take a look at John Kenzie
13:40No, well 269 ISO power number 373 weighted on base percentage
13:44He might be the best of it in that lineup and then Bo Naylor in that 9-hole here
13:47How many bats is he gonna get he actually has elevated ISO and weighted on base percentages
13:51But you notice who we're leaving out here
13:53Steven Kwan's got terrible numbers over the past 30 days against right into pitching Jose Ramirez terrible numbers there
13:58Will Brennan really bad numbers at this point here?
14:01So it's one of those where do you just say to yourself?
14:03He's a bad pitcher and eventually that Cleveland lineup is going to get up for him or not
14:07Flip it over to the other side Gavin Williams
14:09Average pitcher here and I like the look of that Detroit lineup much much better than I do for the Cleveland Guardians
14:15We wouldn't have been saying that Ben before the all-star break
14:17But now it looks like that team is finally starting to wake up
14:20This is a tough game. But the one thing I do know is that price point
14:24178 it's a tough one. My it is a bad pitcher, but I can't lay one of 78 with Gavin Williams out there. No way
14:30Rubber rubber match in an American League East divisional duel today
14:34The Blue Jays hosting the Rays Tampa won the first game 4 to 2 the Blue Jays respond yesterday 6 to 3
14:41By the way, Lottie jr. He has been a part of trade speculation
14:45Home run yesterday to RBI's batting near 300 this year has looked pretty good
14:50Minus 116 Toronto a slight home favorite in the six to take the rubber match. Will the Jays do that?
14:58I'm not sure. I don't think they have the better pitcher on the mound today
15:00Take a look at Taj Bradley's really set it up here last 60 days if we include home and away splits in 83
15:06X-fit minus and an ERA of 2.20 couple that with a 3.41 x-fit number. He's really handling his business
15:13Also, take a look at the non-analytical numbers here. I so power number. Oh 23 waited on base percentage
15:19195 who was last 96 batters that is absolutely tremendous
15:23Not a great-looking lineup outside a few batters here for Toronto George Springer's got some really good numbers gets right into pitching over the past
15:29Month and as you said Vladimir Guerrero with jr
15:31Last 79 at-bats against right-handed pitching Ben 338 ISO 423 waited on base percentage
15:37Certainly doing damage with the rest of that lineup a lot to be desired if I'm looking from Chris Bassett's angle here
15:42He hasn't had a bad last 30 days. A hundred and three batters. He's faced a
15:46109 ISO which is very good and a 333 waited on base percentage
15:50Which is average and quite frankly you only have to be average typically Ben when you're taking on the lineup for the Tampa Bay Rays
15:56So maybe an under look might be the best side of it because I really like Taj Bradley. I just don't have an offense
16:01I'm getting out of Tampa Bay. So let's lean on an under today
16:05The Rays 51 and 51 since the start of July the Rays have never been better than a game above
16:13500 or worse than two games below 500
16:17hovering in
16:19Mediocrity speaking of mediocre. It's an insult to the word mediocre to refer to that as the White Sox who have now lost 10
16:26straight games are 50 games below 500 with a
16:3127 in
16:3277 record today in Texas where they got blown out yesterday
16:3610 to 2 the Rangers and Max Scherzer nearly a two and a half dollar
16:41favorite Scherz
16:43Thing like a sure thing is Texas going to run away with another victory today over Chicago
16:49Now yesterday when you tell somebody your favorite RBI prop of the day is gonna be Corey Seeger
16:55And in the first inning against a certain pitcher you could say he's showing off war
16:59Hey, Donnie, you were flexing you're flexing
17:04Easy home run shot, but whatever I would have told you now
17:08Analytically, the better pitcher on the mound is not Max Scherzer. You'd normally see that price Ben and say to yourself
17:12Of course, it's Max Scherzer going up the guy never heard of here
17:15Well, take a look at Max Scherzer over the last 60 days his exit minus number a 104 Jonathan Cannon a 100
17:22But it's always the issue is what am I getting out of that Chicago White Sox lineup here?
17:26If you tell me right now, like yeah Scherzer's been bad. We can abuse him a little bit get four to five runs
17:31They would be in it, but it's not the question mark like if Scherzer goes out five innings pitch in three earned runs
17:36I don't think anybody's saying like yeah, that's gonna be a W here for the Chicago White Sox. That's the tough part here
17:40I actually would lean more towards an over in this game than I would it under and more towards a side not
17:46Necessarily cuz I'm not paying that price on Max Scherzer. This isn't 2016 Max Scherzer. Come on
17:51I like the look DRS in Miami
17:55Can the Marlins complete the sweet of a three-game midweek set against Baltimore can't happen, right?
18:01The O's are greater than a $2 favorite the ace of the staff Corbin Burns is on the bump like this is it right?
18:07Baltimore's not gonna get swept today in South Florida
18:10It x-fifth number last 60 days 88 x-fit minus for Corbin Burns, which is very good
18:15Rotary Munoz ready for this one Ben a
18:18148
18:21X-fit minus number so when you're going into a game where it's the sided advantage for one pitcher absolutely
18:27They should win
18:27But also this lineup should be able to absolutely tee off on Munoz who cannot get left-handed batters out
18:35Henderson Rutschman Santander O'Hearn
18:38Kirsten Kohl sir Cal sir and Mullins all left-handed batters
18:42Which means if you could do simple math only two batters in a lot of varieties those seven lefties are live
18:47They should smash today in the afternoon right at noon
18:52Yeah, I think they should Baltimore needs it
18:55We're a game and extend your lead in the American League East at least to go two games up over the Yanks the RS
19:03We appreciate the time as I'm treating you like a guest. All right, I'll see you tomorrow Friday
19:07I am Eastern Time here on the early line money line starts in just a few