Ismail Haniyeh Killed on Iranian Soil: Was This a Western and Israeli Conspiracy? Expert’s Insights

3 months ago

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00:00Hello and welcome to this special broadcast on One India. As we all know, as India and

00:05rest of the world woke up to the news of the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Hanye.

00:12That is something that has thrown all the questions into tizzy to discuss that further

00:18and beyond the situation. Dr Nimrod Goren, Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute

00:25joins us. Dr Goren, thank you so much for speaking to One India once again, sir.

00:31Thank you. It's a pleasure being here. Thank you. Dr Goren, what changes from now on? Is this

00:39victory for Israel? Is this a wound on Hamas that it will fight back and come up with a counter

00:47strike? Or where is Iran? How does Iran react to it? It's a major event. You know, it came as a

00:53surprise to many in Israel, because all attention in Israel was basically given to Lebanon and

00:59Hezbollah. And what happened just a few hours before that, in which one of maybe the top

01:04military commander within Hezbollah was also killed in Israeli strikes. Having those two events

01:10happen within the same night is something that is a really major event that will have consequences.

01:16There will be short term and long term, you know, in the long term, it does impact

01:20Hamas political power. And one of the goals of the war in Gaza for Israel was not only eliminating

01:26Hamas military power, but also making Hamas ability to govern Gaza politics. So that

01:35is one aspect of that. And there is the short term aspect in which there may be a retaliation,

01:39whether Hamas, Hezbollah, both of them. So Israel is kind of taking a step back and waiting to see

01:46what will happen tomorrow, taking precautions, but people are very tense and are not sure where

01:51this will lead to in the immediate term. Right. Dr. Gurian, for Israel to commit such, to take

01:58such a step, if we may say Israel as of now. But do you think that several of the factors would

02:06have also been taken into consideration, like the support of the United States, because this is not

02:12just about attacking Hamas leader, it's attacking Hamas leader on Iranian soil. So that puts into a

02:19different perspective. So U.S. role, where do you see U.S. role in it? So first on Hamas, on Haniyah,

02:26unlike the Hezbollah attack, Israel did not take responsibility until now. So there is no formal

02:31Israeli reaction. I think all of those observing it are likely thinking that it was an Israeli

02:37action and that's reasonable, but there was no official taking of responsibility. It may happen

02:42later on, but you know, that's not the case. I guess it's such an operation must have some

02:49coordination with the U.S. administration, not necessarily the specifics of timing and location,

02:54but in the principal aspect of things. And we heard already yesterday, after the attack on Beirut,

03:00American leadership committed to Israel's right to self-defense. So I think here again,

03:06the way the Hamas is being perceived in the U.S. is one that will maybe legitimize the Israeli

03:11actions or understand the causes for that. It's not by chance, for example, that it did not take place

03:18in Doha, where Haniyah spends most of his time, neither in Turkey, where he was also spending lots

03:25of time after October 7th. Israel chose to operate in a space in which the fallback, the diplomatic

03:32fallback would be much less significant than on the other countries. And I guess that also

03:36takes into account American interests in the region. Right, so since you have stayed in that

03:44region, you follow the geopolitics also of this whole Israel, Lebanon, Palestine and Iranian

03:52topography. How wrong would I be, Dr. Goran, to just imagine and think that this piece of news

04:03could be fake also, if I may stick my neck out here, because Ismail Haniyeh, he had, you know,

04:10Israel was on a hot pursuit. We have seen other organizations' leaders also dying many times.

04:17They resurfaced, they died again, because IRG and Hamas were quick to respond to it saying,

04:24yes, he has been eliminated. I mean, this was too good to be believed.

04:29Yeah, of course, in the Middle East, things are happening in all kinds of ways. So you never know,

04:33and people are always thinking of what's really happening and where the fake news and the

04:37misinformation. And looking at it analytically, I think that if the scenario that you're mentioning,

04:42as if this didn't really happen, was the case, we would have gotten some indication of that.

04:48You know, first, the method in which he was supposedly killed by a rocket that was directed

04:54at his room is not a quiet operation. So if that happened, you know, that's visible. You have signs

05:00of that. It's something people see. It's not like a quiet operation within a hotel room, you know,

05:06like happens in other instances. So people know about it when it's happening. And then,

05:10although Israel is not taking responsibility for anything, I guess that if this didn't really

05:15happen, you would have all kinds of leaks through international media or other sources

05:20indicating that. So the fact that we're already several hours in and that did not happen,

05:26increases the chances that this is a true story. But of course, you know, the day is just unfolding.

05:31So we'll have to wait a few hours and see the whole picture.

05:33Dr. Goran, one final question. We spoke in the times when the war had just started,

05:40I distinctly remember, and now almost a year now, come October, in two, three months time.

05:50Is this attack or this assassination any kind of victory for Israel? Can Israel

05:59afford to see it like a victory, like an achievement?

06:03First, it's a really long time that this war is taking place. You know, we're talking about

06:08a long period of several months in which not only people are fighting, but people are dying

06:14and hostages are kept. And it really impacts the daily life, both Israelis and Palestinians.

06:19So the damage is kind of accumulating. I think for Israel, the assassination of Hamas leadership

06:27is an achievement, but it's not a victory, because the victory from an Israeli perspective

06:31is to free the hostages, first and foremost. We have 115 people still held in Gaza by Hamas,

06:37and for the Israeli society, before these people come home, you cannot declare victory. For

06:44a majority, about 70% of Israelis now prefer a deal for release the hostages on the continuation

06:50of the war. They are willing to stop the war in the current format of it, just to have the people

06:54back home. So I think that's what Israelis are looking for, is the return of the hostages. It's

06:59creating the sense of security so people can go back to live in those communities close to the

07:05Gaza border. And the way to deal with that is eventually diplomatic. So there is a deal on

07:11the table, a ceasefire deal, a hostage release deal that President Biden endorses. Such a deal

07:16is supposed to also help diffuse tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The Americans also want to

07:21see that leverage into Israeli-Saudi normalization. So there is a big package on the table, but the

07:26current Israeli leadership rejects that, and I think that's something that leads to a lot of

07:31domestic problems in Israel within the political space. Absolutely, nicely put there, Dr. Nimrod

07:38Gorin, Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs, Middle East Institute. Thank you so much for taking time

07:43out this morning with your busy schedule. Thank you very much.

07:51Thank you.

Ismail Haniyeh Killed on Iranian Soil: Was This a Western and Israeli Conspiracy? Expert’s Insights

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