Betting on Aaron Judge to Hit Over 60 Home Runs in 2024
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00:00Aaron Judge, 60 or more regular season home runs will return you 2-1, if he breaks the
00:09American League record of hitting 63 or more, that'll get you 4.5 to 1.
00:13So we're looking at plus 200 for over 60 and plus 440 for over 63.5.
00:18Your thoughts?
00:20I know the big number on the 63 is fun, but I think we're looking more on the 2-1 being
00:26reasonable.
00:27Can he get to 60 or 61?
00:29It's possible.
00:30We've got 50 games left here to go.
00:33And Aaron Judge, as many of you know from yesterday's action, is now at 41 homers.
00:38What a season for him, right?
00:40110 games, 41 homers, and 103 RBI.
00:42Not too bad.
00:43Hitting 321, the slugging percentage is over 700.
00:48That's a tough pace to maintain for anybody, even in that little tiny Wiffle Ball ballpark
00:53that is Yankee Stadium.
00:55I think the 60 is achievable.
00:56I really do.
00:57I think he can get there.
00:59I think he can get to 60 to 61.
01:00To go over 63, I just think that's a tall order to ask at this juncture in the season.
01:04I think you have to be closer to 40 at the All-Star break to really consider that that
01:10pace is going to hold.
01:11And when a guy is as red hot as Aaron Judge has been for so long, we always say this on
01:16the show, right?
01:17Baseball is a game of streaks.
01:18Eventually, things do kind of come backwards a little bit.
01:20Now, the inflection of Jazz Chisholm helps, sure, a little bit more line of protection,
01:23a little bit more of an energy there in that ballpark.
01:26The fact that they're in a pennant race and there's a focus level there.
01:29The fact that he's got Juan Soto around, too.
01:32It's a good situation for him to smash this number.
01:35But I don't think the 63 is viable.
01:38I think I would stay with the 60.
01:40That I think you can achieve.
01:41And you're getting a pretty good number on it.
01:42So Vegas seems to think that 60 is well within his grasp.
01:45Two to one is not too shabby there.
01:49You're still getting a good return on your investment.
01:51But it's also telling you they think it's within his range, too.
01:54And so do I.
01:55But Matt, what do you think?
01:57Here with 50 games, this guy has 20 homers left in that tank.
02:01Yeah, absolutely.
02:02The immutable laws of math will tell you that he does.
02:06But then there are those things for which you cannot account.
02:09There is the emotional, the mental.
02:11I'd like to see who they're facing down the line.
02:14Think of the rotations.
02:15Think if he catches the one every fifth day, it's going to be hard.
02:18If he catches a team's four, you know what I'm saying?
02:21It's going to be different.
02:22So I'd have to have a lot more information.
02:24But you asked, does he have it in him?
02:25Yes, the laws of math say that he does, given how many he's had,
02:28the amount of games and the amount of games that are left.