Paris Olympics Basketball: Men's Semifinals Best Bets
Transcript
00:00And now the stretch they come at the Olympic Games, of course, we're going to be giving
00:06out some gold medals here on SportsGrid over the next few days in soccer, basketball and
00:11other sports as well.
00:12Paris Olympics has been a huge success, especially for one of the teams in particular in France.
00:18Let's talk about that with Gilbert McGregor, who joins us here on the show.
00:21Gilbert, I mean, home cooking here, without a doubt for France in Paris, I mean, seven
00:27and a half point underdogs with a chance to chase down a silver or maybe even a gold.
00:34And I mean, was it more of what France did you think in this game yesterday against Canada?
00:38Or was it Canada falling flat in this final 82 to 73, the final Canada seven and a half
00:44point favorite getting beat handily?
00:47You know what, Craig?
00:48I think it's a combination of both.
00:49I don't know if that's a cop out answer or not.
00:51But Canada had their worst game of the tournament at the worst possible time.
00:57It's one thing to come out flat and you can't come out flat in an elimination game.
01:01But to come out flat against the home team, who has the crowd behind them, was just the
01:06worst possible circumstance for that Canada team.
01:09France had some of their guys step up and this is a game where Victor Wiminyama didn't
01:12necessarily have his trademark influence and Rudy Gobert barely played.
01:16So, you know, a lot of hope going into that Canada team, a lot of talent on that roster.
01:22And they just came up flat and it's a huge letdown for that Canada program.
01:26But also credit to France, they stepped up at the right time and now they have an opportunity
01:30to play for a medal in front of their home fans, but it doesn't get any easier for them
01:33as they play Germany next.
01:35Yeah.
01:36No, no, no doubt.
01:37And I mean, this game coming up on Thursday, maybe the very biggest of the entire Olympic
01:42Games because we'll get to Team USA, assuming they win.
01:45Let's talk about this game between Germany and France and the odds makers, Gilbert, not
01:49buying it.
01:50Germany, a four and a half point favorite against the team that everyone's going to
01:54be cheering for Thursday, 1130 a.m. Eastern.
01:58We'll have live updates on that game here on Newswire coming up tomorrow.
02:03But by the time it goes off, Gilbert, you're going to need to give your opinion now because
02:07I'll be on the air when it starts.
02:10Can France keep this going here?
02:12Can they keep this close?
02:13You know, I've been high on Germany, even coming into the tournament.
02:17I think that they are the most complete team that complements each other better than anybody
02:21else.
02:22I mean, I met last week, last weekend on Friday in Germany, honestly ran them out of their
02:27own gym.
02:28So I think that's going to be on France's mind.
02:30But I just feel like Germany has a better team and a better shot to make the most of
02:36that opportunity.
02:37Now, they're going to need an extra effort because France has been getting to the free
02:40throw line.
02:41We talk about a little homecoming hook cooking.
02:42Maybe that's the discussion there.
02:43Maybe it isn't.
02:44So they're going to need to give a little bit extra to get the win they need to get.
02:48But I think that they're the better team just because of the way their team is constructed.
02:51France has some issues in the backcourt.
02:53Dennis Schreuder just takes it to another level.
02:55So I think he will be the difference in tomorrow's game.
02:58OK, fair enough.
02:59Now, Team USA, you know, basically impose their will on Brazil like they have not, by
03:05the way, in any game thus far, whether it's been the exhibition or the group stage or
03:09even the medal chasing.
03:11So the odds makers, what I think is really interesting here, Gilbert, have sort of responded
03:17the other way because Serbia, while they're not great, have certainly played well.
03:22Like they're sort of staying in games or at least the point spread here.
03:25Maybe that's probably the best way to put it.
03:27Team USA only 16 and a half point favorites, Gilbert, against Serbia.
03:31We know that Serbia covered against Team USA when they played them thus far.
03:34The total is 184 and a half Thursday at 3 o'clock Eastern.
03:40So no one's picking Serbia on the money line to upset them outright at plus 920.
03:45But can Serbia keep this close enough to make it interesting?
03:50I do think that they will keep it close.
03:53Serbia was tested yesterday by Australia.
03:55They need to come back from down 24 points.
03:58So I do think they might be a little bit tired from the effort that it took for them to win
04:02that game.
04:03That being said, this is the third time that these two teams have met during the Olympic
04:07cycle.
04:08It was a little bit closer during the exhibitions and Team USA kind of ran the score up during
04:12group play.
04:13So I think that now that this is the quarterfinal or the semifinal stage, the knockout round,
04:19I think that Serbia will try to slow the game down and make it a little bit uglier because
04:22that's really their best chance to make things interesting against Team USA.
04:26We know that they have Nikola Jokic, but they also have Bogdan Bogdanovic and some other
04:30talented players on that roster.
04:31So if they can make the game a little bit uglier, they can hang around a little bit
04:34longer than people probably expect them to.
04:36All right.
04:37So now we're going to run through these odds here because Gilbert's already planted his
04:41flag, so to speak, on Team USA winning the gold like everybody else.
04:44So I don't want to waste a lot of time on this.
04:45So the odds to win the gold medal is still Team USA at minus 600.
04:50And you see Germany, Serbia, and France there.
04:52So let's go to the next graphic, guys, because this one's sort of pointless.
04:56How about the odds to win the silver medal, Gilbert?
04:59I know that you have been big on Germany.
05:01They are minus 150 here.
05:04France is the team that's jumped up the highest in terms of odds.
05:06I think to win the silver, they were four or five to one.
05:09Now they're plus 180.
05:11Should Serbia somehow shock Team USA?
05:15That 19 to 1 is going to be really, really juicy there at that point, but I don't think
05:19anybody's predicting that.
05:20So are you going to stick with Germany here to win the silver?
05:23I'll stick with Germany, but I'll look at that.
05:25And if you somehow believe that they can win the gold, then maybe taking Team USA being
05:28the team that they lose to in that game might be some value there.
05:32I just think that Germany, these guys are really familiar with one another.
05:37They've played in a number of international tournaments.
05:39They won the Basketball World Cup last year, and they beat Team USA on the path to do so.
05:45So it does feel like we've been on the crash course to see USA versus Germany in the gold
05:49medal game.
05:50Whether you see it going one way or the other, I do think there is a formula for Germany
05:54to win that game.
05:55And I think that they have the best chance of anybody else available to beat Team USA.
06:00But they have to get there.
06:02By the way, before we get to the women today at 3.30 Eastern, Gilbert, fair to say Team
06:07USA still would be a double-digit favorite in the gold game against Germany?
06:10Do you think that's accurate?
06:11They haven't set the odds yet for that, but I'm just asking your opinion.
06:13I don't know.
06:14These are two teams that played really closely during the exhibition game.
06:18So we might see something like an eight and a half or nine and a half point spread, maybe,
06:22especially since the game is being played in Europe.
06:24Got it.
06:25Okay.
06:26Team USA, the women, also going for the gold.
06:28They play 3.30 this afternoon.
06:30So let's hit on this game real quick against Nigeria.
06:32I don't know anything of Nigeria.
06:35Team USA is 28 and a half point favorites.
06:37It's the biggest favorite they've been thus far.
06:38Do they clobber Nigeria and move on, or does Nigeria have a player I'm unaware of here?
06:43You know, Nigeria has a great story.
06:46This is a very prideful team.
06:47It's the first African nation to ever advance to the quarterfinals, men or women, at the
06:52Olympics.
06:53But I just think that Team USA has a little too much talent and too much of a size advantage
06:56over them.
06:57They've been having slow starts, so maybe Nigeria will keep it close early.
07:00But I think that Team USA pulls away.
07:01All right.
07:0228 and a half point favorites today.
07:04Robert, thanks again for coming on.
07:05Appreciate it.
07:06We'll talk again soon.
07:07Thanks, Greg.
07:08Looking forward to it.