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00:00A day, a title is at stake in the WNBA.
00:09It's the commissioners cup final tonight between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx
00:13and we will preview the game and the cup on the line in just a little bit, but we use
00:18this time to reset off day of the W yesterday.
00:22Just the singular cup championship game on this Tuesday to look at the season in its
00:28early goings and we do that now with Miles Erlich joining us here on this Tuesday on
00:33the early line senior writer for Windsider covering all things around the WNBA.
00:38Miles we appreciate the time.
00:40Thank you for being here on this Tuesday.
00:43Thanks for having me excited to do it.
00:45So let's look at this season so far.
00:48Of course there has been more attention than ever on the WNBA.
00:52Sometimes the discourse has been a little bit insane and not focused on the actual action
00:57on the hardwood, but with that notoriety comes the eyeballs and the conversation around
01:03miles.
01:04We do things here from the basketball perspective and the odds perspective first and foremost
01:08and we focus on where things are nearly 20 games nearing the halfway point of the 40
01:15game regular season in the W right now, the New York Liberty last year's runner-ups the
01:20best team in the WNBA 15 and three, but the sun and the links also there with 13 wins
01:27and the Seattle storm also joining them in double digits.
01:31When you look at the rosters and the table right now in the WNBA, what is the story been
01:37to you so far to begin this season?
01:41So it is kind of what you referenced at the jump, which is the it's the rise in popularity.
01:46It's the growth of the sport.
01:47It's anecdotally.
01:48It's having conversations with people everywhere who are tuning into games for the first time.
01:54It's looking at Liberty merch everywhere around Brooklyn and not just on game days.
01:59It's going to the park and seeing it.
02:00The extra broadcast, the longer programming, more storytelling.
02:05And I looked at across the timeline, which is a terrific resource for all things W and
02:10average attendance that is at its highest number since 2002 and it's built at a significant
02:15rate every year since the pandemic.
02:18So this is the growth that I've been anticipating since I started covering the sport back in
02:222019.
02:23And it's just awesome that all of that's here, even with like you said, some of the discourse
02:27that isn't always basketball related.
02:29Yeah, it's really fantastic to watch because a lot more fans are being brought into the
02:34tent by this awesome rookie class.
02:36But if we are taking a look at the standings here in the WNBA, it's great to see some of
02:40the parody top three teams with three losses here than that middle of the pack.
02:43But one of those teams here that we take a look at the middle of the pack is the aces
02:47at eight and six.
02:48Are we surprised here, Miles, that we're taking a look and saying, you know what, the aces
02:52in the middle of the pack as opposed to the front of the pack right now?
02:57It's surprising, yes, because you never expect to see the aces that low, but also no, because
03:02they were without Chelsea Gray, their point guard until very recently.
03:06Since Chelsea has come back, they've won two straight and that's with her coming off the
03:09bench.
03:10But they've just looked like a different team.
03:12They just look much more comfortable with her on the floor.
03:15And I think that they're going to just rebound and be the team that we expected.
03:20And with four Olympians going to Paris next month, it might not be the worst thing that
03:25their minutes have been down a little bit and that they haven't been in as stressful
03:30and as high pressure situation so far.
03:32Yeah, before Chelsea Gray returned for Las Vegas, the aces had dropped three in a row.
03:38The first three game losing skids since 2019 and four of their previous five.
03:43And then you saw what Chelsea Gray brings to the aces 16 minutes in her season debut
03:47off the bench, seven assists as the orchestrator of that offense.
03:52And despite Miles, the struggle, at least throughout the regular season in all things
03:56comparison wise for Las Vegas, they remain the title favorites at plus 135, the two time
04:02reigning WNBA champs, but not all that far behind.
04:07The team Las Vegas edged out last year, the New York Liberty at plus 194 teams at this
04:13moment with three digits next to their WNBA championship odds.
04:17In your estimation, Miles, how many teams can realistically win the WNBA title this
04:23year?
04:25So I think that six teams can make noise in the postseason, Las Vegas and New York, like
04:29you said, but also Connecticut, Minnesota, Seattle and Phoenix.
04:34With the amount of talent on those rosters, any of those teams can win a playoff series.
04:39That being said, assuming that these teams are healthy come playoff time, I don't know
04:44if I'd go beyond the aces in the Liberty.
04:46There's something to be said for the number of mismatches they can create all over the
04:49court.
04:50And these two franchises still feel to me like they're on a tier all their own.
04:56If we are taking a look at some of the best players on the best teams, which leads us
04:59into the MVP market.
05:01It seems like we might have a runaway here with Asia Wilson, a minus 290 price here at
05:05the Fable Sportsbook, followed by Collier, Thomas Stewart and Jones.
05:09Are we looking this at Asia's to lose at this point in your miles?
05:13Absolutely, absolutely.
05:15There was a lot of discourse about one voter last year, putting Asia in fourth place in
05:22a three horse race, and that seems to have motivated her this season.
05:26She is leading the league in scoring at 27.8 points per game, which is nearly four points
05:31ahead of Arike Ogunbowale, who's in second place.
05:34And she's pulling down a league high 11.6 boards a night, all while being the hub of
05:39that Vegas defense.
05:41It's also just the intangibles that Asia brings.
05:43It's her leadership.
05:44It's her charm.
05:45It's her jocularity.
05:46Any sports league would be happy to have Asia as their signature athlete.
05:51So she's just doing it all on the court and off the court.
05:54It just feels like there are some good seasons happening, but nothing is coming close to
05:57what Asia has been doing in Vegas.
06:00I mean, look at those numbers.
06:02Go ahead.
06:03Yeah.
06:04Go ahead, Miles.
06:05I did want to add one.
06:06One thing to note, though, is that it's been over a decade since a team that hasn't finished
06:10top three in the standings has had the MVP.
06:14So if you are looking at that, I do think Asia, between the narrative and just what
06:18she's done, might transcend that.
06:21And we can see Vegas go off on a dozen-game winning streak in the second half.
06:25But that is something to keep in the back of your mind if you are thinking about this
06:28from a betting perspective.
06:30That trend perspective, always a good thing here on the early line.
06:34Asia Wilson won the WNBA MVP in 2022, felt rightfully spurned a year ago.
06:40We've seen that in her performance, nearly 28 points per game, over 11 rebounds throughout
06:46this season.
06:47Miles, you mentioned what she means for the WNBA as a whole.
06:50Her playing style on the floor, what is the reason for Asia Wilson's dominance each and
06:55every night within the WNBA?
06:58She's just such a consistent scorer.
07:01And I think that that's around the rim.
07:04That's her mid-range game.
07:05And she's just gotten better and better.
07:07She goes left.
07:08She goes right.
07:09She seals so deeply.
07:11She runs the floor.
07:12It's really everything that you can want.
07:14And now that you're bringing back Chelsea Gray, Chelsea Gray is just one of the best
07:18passers who's always looking for her.
07:19Asia's got great hands.
07:21She just does it all.
07:22And I think that that kind of consistency, that kind of stability is what you need if
07:27you're going to have any chance at not just repeating, but then going for three in a row.
07:32Miles, let's take a look at this rookie class that has been absolutely sensational here,
07:36bringing in the ratings and certainly the play to back it up.
07:38You take a look at Kaitlyn Clark here, 16.3 points per game, 6.6 assists per game, 5.4
07:44rebounds per game.
07:45And rookie of the year odds, you're coming in at a minus 9.50 price.
07:48If we had to assess the early part of Kaitlyn Clark's career, is it about what you expected?
07:53Is she exceeding expectations?
07:55How do you feel about it?
07:56Yeah, I don't know the last player that had these kind of external expectations put on
08:03them, but Kaitlyn is pretty much exactly in line with where my expectations would have
08:08been.
08:0916.3 points per game is 16th in the league.
08:12She's fifth in assists, like you said, with 6.6.
08:15The three-pointers, she was shooting 14 a game when she was in college, and now that's
08:20down to eight a game.
08:21So she's only making 2.8, which is still top five in the league.
08:25But the percentages aren't quite where we would love to see them.
08:28I think what we've seen from Angel, sorry, from Kaitlyn recently, is that she's getting
08:34more comfortable on the court and that she's facilitating more.
08:37She's taking fewer shots, but more efficient ones.
08:40So I think we're seeing her learn in real time, which is exactly what we should expect
08:43from a rookie.
08:44So it's been overall a success, and now that success is starting to come on the court as
08:48she kind of gets more comfortable.
08:51It was a grueling stretch to begin the year, 11 games in 20 days, reflected in the Fevers
08:56record as well, 2-9.
08:58But as things have settled down, both for Kaitlyn Clark and Indiana as a whole, five
09:03wins in their last seven games in the last 17 days.
09:07We'll talk about the rest of this rookie class and preview the Commissioner's Cup with
09:11Myles Ehrlich on the other side of the break, live right here on this Tuesday on The Early
09:16Line.
09:17There's been historic marks for more rookies than just Kaitlyn Clark this season in the
09:21W.
09:22We'll break it down on that.
09:23Myles Ehrlich, a senior rider for Winsider, joining us here for a second consecutive segment
09:28on this Tuesday on The Early Line.
09:30And Myles, the last two Sunday afternoons have kind of been the encapsulation of this
09:35rookie class in matchups between the Indiana Fever and the Chicago Sky.
09:40Three matchups this year between these two franchises, all three decided by a single
09:45point.
09:46Two of the three, or all three decided by single digits, two of the three by a single
09:50point, including this past Sunday and what a game it was in the Shy.
09:55Between the Sky and the Fever, Angel Lee's 25.16 boards, Kaitlyn Clark's 17.13 dimes.
10:01We showed you the stats this year for Kaitlyn Clark, the hefty favorite to be rookie of
10:06the year in the W at minus 9.50.
10:08If anybody is going to catch her, it seems it will be Angel Lee's eight consecutive double
10:13doubles here for the Chicago Sky on this run.
10:17That's the most we've ever seen in a row by a rookie in WNBA history, 25.16 boards on
10:23Sunday, the first 25.15 rebound performance by a rookie in the WNBA since Asia Wilson back
10:31in 2018.
10:32Donnie asked you, is Kaitlyn Clark matching the extremely high expectations in her rookie
10:37campaign?
10:38Miles, same exact question for Angel Reese.
10:41Yeah.
10:43So I think that not only has Angel Reese exceeded my expectations, I think she's exceeded the
10:48expectations of a majority of the front offices around the WNBA.
10:52She dropped to seven in the draft and I think it won't be very long before we look back
10:57at that as a big mistake.
10:59All that being said, my questions going into this were not her motor.
11:04It was not her rebounding ability.
11:05It was her ability to finish.
11:07And she has been lower on the field goal percentage size, but she makes up for that with just
11:14her grit, her hustle, everything that she was able to do in college, shooting from these
11:18weird angles and getting it to fall.
11:20But we've also seen growth.
11:21And I think that's credit to Teaspoon and to her staff is that Angel was not just looking
11:27to draw fouls the other day.
11:30She was making post moves.
11:31She was going around contact.
11:32And I think that that's that sign of growth that we're seeing now.
11:36Like you said, eight straight double-doubles.
11:38She's now second in the WNBA behind Asia Wilson with 11.1 rebounds per game.
11:43This has been amazing just to witness.
11:45And if Chicago can make a playoff push, then that plus 600 odds that you were talking about
11:51doesn't feel as long as they would have before the season.
11:54Miles, if we take a look at some action on the court tonight, we're going to talk commissioner
11:59Cup before we get into the game itself and the participants.
12:01For the people that don't know, explain to them what the Commissioner's Cup is and what's
12:05at stake today.
12:06Sure.
12:08So the Commissioner's Cup started.
12:10This will be the fourth season and it's an in-season tournament, which is kind of like
12:13we just saw for the first time on the NBA side.
12:17And for this in this new format that started this year, there were there was a two week
12:21stretch where every team played every other team in their conference once.
12:25So there was a two week stretch where it was.
12:27It was five games.
12:29And from those five games, the top seeded represents each conference.
12:33So the Liberty are going back there for the second time in a row after beating Vegas last
12:36year.
12:37The winning team earns $50,000 per player.
12:41The losing team earns $25,000 per player.
12:44So they already got paid to be here at this point.
12:47But it's a nice little addition in the middle of the season.
12:50And yeah, the Liberty hung a banner last year for winning this Commissioner's Cup game.
12:54So it's something that both these teams take very seriously.
12:56But especially when you think about the rookies on that team who can use a little bit of extra
12:59cash.
13:00Yeah, absolutely.
13:02So the Liberty knocking off the Las Vegas Aces last year, the Aces winning it the year
13:07prior to the Seattle Storm back in 2021 in the first year of the WNBA Commissioner's
13:12Cup.
13:13But of course, as Miles just explained, a new format this year, one single game, a championship
13:18on the line tonight, the Liberty, a five point favorite against the Minnesota Lynx.
13:23Miles, when you look at these two teams, two of the hottest right now all across the
13:27W, how do the Lynx and Liberty match up in the Commissioner's Cup title game tonight?
13:33I am very, very interested to just watch the three point defense on both of these teams.
13:38Because these are two of the most prolific three point shooting teams in the WNBA.
13:44But they're also two of the highest defenses, two of the best defenses, especially on that
13:48perimeter.
13:49And when you look at net rating, the Lynx are first, Liberty are second, but you look
13:52at scoring, Liberty are first, Lynx are third.
13:55It's everywhere, opposing scoring, Lynx are first, Liberty are third.
13:59So I think that there's a lot of evenly matched stuff going on on both sides.
14:04What it's going to come down to for me, though, it might be the rebounding.
14:08And that's something that the Liberty could not lean on last time.
14:10So John Paul Jones, I think, is just a player to highlight.
14:14And the Lynx are 10th in rebounding percentage and the Liberty are second.
14:18That's kind of the largest gap between these teams.
14:22If we are taking a look at some of the props to have fun with tonight, you're taking a
14:24look at Stewart and Collier, the leaders here at the FanDuel Sportsbook at 19 and a half,
14:29and also similar numbers here to win the MVP of the Commissioner's Cup, where you see Stewart
14:33at a plus 190, excuse me, plus 290, and also Collier the same at a plus 290.
14:37What we can anticipate, and also some players that you might be interested in watching tonight
14:41in this game.
14:44Back to the rebounding.
14:45John Paul Jones, the Liberty are 17 and 0 in regular season games when she double doubles.
14:50So like I said, she dealt with that foul trouble.
14:52But the connection on the Liberty side between Sabrina Ionescu and John Paul Jones, especially
14:56lately, has really had the Liberty playing in a different level.
15:00Saab has assisted to JJ 52 times.
15:03Everyone else on the team combined has done it just 44 times.
15:06So if those two are cooking, it's good for New York.
15:10On the Minnesota side, Kayla McBride is knocking down 3.33s per game at an absurd 46.4%.
15:17Bridget Carlton, who has never knocked in more than a three per game, is averaging two
15:21a night on 43%.
15:23So it's that shooting on that side.
15:25And obviously, like you said, Stewie and Nafisa are really always going to be in the middle
15:29of it all.
15:30So I think that there are scorers everywhere.
15:32There's talent everywhere.
15:33There's Olympians everywhere.
15:35So this is really exciting.
15:37And when you look at the odds, Sabrina is averaging 20.8 points per game in 10 June
15:43games.
15:44So she's been really hot for New York.
15:46Sabrina Ionescu was huge on Sunday in the Liberties victory, 26 points for Sabrina Ionescu
15:52in that one.
15:53The veteran in double J, Jonquell Jones, has been huge this year for New York.
15:57And you mentioned Nafisa Collier, 21 points per game, virtually over 10 boards as well.
16:03Miles, final question quickly here, in the final 30 seconds of this segment, you making
16:07the trip out to the island at UBS Arena for tonight's Commissioner's Cup game?
16:11Yep, I'll be there.
16:13I'll be there.
16:14I've never been out there for a basketball game before, so I'm excited to see what it
16:17looks like.
16:18And I hope that the crowd can make the trip as well, because this was kind of a last minute
16:22switch.
16:23Yep, it is the home of the New York Islanders.
16:26But I've been to UBS before, a great arena for a sporting event.
16:30Miles Ehrlich, a senior rider for Windsider.
16:32We appreciate the time.
16:33Thank you for being here on this Tuesday, going all around the W.