Tantangan Target Penerimaan Negara di 2025
Presiden Joko Widodo menekankan pentingnya pengelolaan pendapatan negara dan pembiayaan yang hati-hati sebagai langkah strategis dalam mencapai target-target ekonomi dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Kepala Negara mengungkapkan bahwa pendapatan negara pada tahun 2025 diproyeksikan mencapai Rp2.996,9 triliun, terdiri atas penerimaan perpajakan sebesar Rp2.490,9 triliun dan penerimaan negara bukan pajak (PNBP) sebesar Rp505,4 triliun.
Dalam upaya mencapai target penerimaan perpajakan, pemerintah akan melanjutkan reformasi perpajakan. Reformasi ini mencakup perluasan basis pajak, peningkatan kepatuhan wajib pajak, perbaikan tata kelola dan administrasi perpajakan, serta pemberian insentif perpajakan yang terarah dan terukur.
Dalam upaya mencapai target penerimaan perpajakan, pemerintah akan melanjutkan reformasi perpajakan. Reformasi ini mencakup perluasan basis pajak, peningkatan kepatuhan wajib pajak, perbaikan tata kelola dan administrasi perpajakan, serta pemberian insentif perpajakan yang terarah dan terukur.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Economic Movement
00:19Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:21Live from IDX Channel Jakarta, I'm Prasetya Wibowo
00:25back again in Market Review, which will discuss the issues of Indonesia's economic movement
00:29and this time we will discuss about the state's acceptance target
00:33especially in 2025, as stated by the President
00:37in the era of the PBN, 2025 will come
00:40almost 3 trillion rupiah
00:42what will be the challenge?
00:44let's start the complete market review
00:48Indonesia's Economic Movement
00:56the government projected the state's income in 2025 to be 2,996.9 trillion rupiah
01:04in order to achieve the state's acceptance target, the government will continue the tax reform
01:11President Jokowi Dodo emphasized the importance of managing state income and financing carefully
01:21as a strategic step in achieving the targets of economic targets and the welfare of the people
01:26Jokowi revealed that the state's income in 2025 was targeted at 2,996.9 trillion rupiah
01:36the projection is based on the tax receipt of 2,490.9 trillion rupiah
01:42and the state's non-tax receipt of 505.4 trillion rupiah
01:48Distinguished Chairperson and Members of the Council
01:52the state's income in 2025 is planned to be 2,996.9 trillion rupiah
02:02the projection is based on the tax receipt of 2,490.9 trillion rupiah
02:11and the state's non-tax receipt of 505.4 trillion rupiah
02:19to maintain the investment climate, environmental sustainability, and public service availability
02:27The tax reform will be continued through the expansion of the tax base,
02:33the improvement of the tax obligation, the improvement of the management and administration of tax
02:39as well as the provision of targeted and measured tax incentives
02:44The effort to improve the state's income and financing continues through the use of technology for planning and reporting
02:53the strengthening of management and supervision, the optimization of state assets and natural resources
02:59as well as promoting service innovation
03:03In an effort to achieve the target of tax receipt, the government will continue the tax reform
03:09where this reform involves the expansion of the tax base, the improvement of the tax obligation,
03:14the improvement of the management and administration of tax
03:17as well as the provision of targeted and measured tax incentives
03:22In addition, the improvement of the tax obligation is also the priority of the government
03:26while on the side of financing, the budget deficit of 2025 is planned to be 2.53% of the domestic gross product
03:34or around 616.2 trillion rupiah
03:37which will be financed by using safe and carefully managed financing resources
03:43For IDX Channel
03:49Yes, Prime Minister, good morning to discuss our interesting topic this time
03:51the challenge of the target of state receipt in 2025
03:54We are already connected through Zoom with Mr. Eko Lustianto, Deputy Director of IDF
03:58Hello, good morning, Mr. Eko
04:00Good morning, Mr. Peras
04:01Yes, greetings, sir
04:03Alhamdulillah, healthy
04:05Okay, thank you, we will immediately discuss
04:07how the target of state receipt in 2025 comes to almost 3 trillion rupiah
04:15In your opinion, can this really be achieved?
04:18Or again, a dream that may be a bit dynamic to be realized, please
04:24Yes, this is because in my opinion, the target is quite high from the receipt aspect
04:31But again, of course, this high target is based on the need for spending
04:37If we look at the transition phase, it has actually started
04:43And indeed, Mr. Jokowi in the last period prepared the budget
04:48which can be executed directly in the next government, Mr. Prabowo's government
04:53So from there, of course, if we look at it from the platform of Mr. Prabowo's government later
05:00That's right, the spending aspect is quite a lot
05:04The direction is to spend directly
05:08which is directly to, for example, welfare, education, etc.
05:12and various kinds of improvements that involve human resources
05:17So because of the need for large spending, of course, the receipt target must be quite challenging
05:24So that the deficit does not need to be expanded too deeply
05:28Something like that
05:30So almost 3 trillion rupiah in 2096, in my opinion, is quite a challenging target
05:37for the next year's economy, which is estimated or targeted to only grow by 5.2%
05:43Yes, tax reform, again, seems to be a game changer for the coming 2025
05:49Are the challenges more complex or not?
05:52Remember, the Cortex system was also announced at the end of this year, right?
05:58Yes, this may be one of the growth assumptions
06:02When the Cortex system is run, the process is increasingly digitalized
06:07and integrated with other population data, such as NPWP, NICA, etc.
06:14and hopefully it also facilitates tax obligations
06:19so that from that ease, the deficit becomes less
06:25so they are more enthusiastic to implement the obligation to pay taxes
06:30From here, it is hoped that additional receipts will appear
06:34Previously, some may still consider it complicated, etc.
06:40Hopefully, with the Cortex system, it will be solved
06:43I think it is one of the growth parts
06:47to be able to increase or reach the national acceptance target
06:52which is almost 3 trillion
06:54These are some of the digitalized systems
06:57In addition, we also know that there are several targets
07:01such as increasing GDP, and also a number of loans for food products
07:08which we will use
07:11Those are things that may become new targets
07:16or new targets, so as to ensure that the 3 trillion is achieved
07:22But with the Cortex system being used
07:25the basis of tax obligation will automatically increase, in your opinion?
07:31Yes, in general, it will definitely increase
07:35because the data is getting more precise
07:39in various aspects
07:41But the additional tax obligation is not certain
07:45the payment of taxes will also increase
07:47there is a potential to increase
07:49At least, this potential can be optimized
07:53with more data, better data
07:57But the challenge is actually the economic situation
08:03Let's say in the national acceptance target, especially the tax
08:07there is also, for example, there is PPN as I mentioned earlier
08:11there is also PPH, PPH Badan
08:13PPH Badan is actually for 2025
08:17it depends on the situation this year, 2023 and 2024
08:21where this year, we know until the middle of this year
08:24actually, the business world, the industry world is actually in a tense condition
08:30as I said, their sales are also moderate
08:34even some have fallen drastically
08:36so 2025 is not certain
08:38PPH Badan has reached the target as planned in the previous RABBN
08:43Interesting, if we look at the psychological condition of the current community
08:48where we know the deflation happened in the last few months
08:51then our PMI manufacturer has left the expansion level
08:55is this actually a signal?
08:57yellow light, isn't it for the national economy?
09:00or is it just cyclical as it happens now?
09:04Yes, I consider this as a real yellow light approaching red
09:09for both in the macro context, our own economy
09:14maybe 5.2 billion in the future is also easy to achieve
09:18and also for the national receipt itself
09:21because if we assume that the economic condition is sluggish
09:26then the receipt target of almost Rp3 trillion can also be sluggish
09:31Okay, interesting, because we also know that the target for next year is 5.2%
09:35while from the receipt side, it is rising again
09:37it is expected to reach Rp3 trillion
09:39can this be synchronized?
09:41we will discuss later in the next segment
09:43Mr. Eko, we will take a short break
09:45and Mr. Mirsa, make sure you are still with us
09:56Thank you for still joining us in Market Review
09:59Mr. Mirsa, in the next segment, we will provide you with data
10:01related to the receipt projection and also the country's spending
10:04in 2025
10:06as Mr. Eko said in the previous segment
10:09this is in accordance with the amount of government spending
10:14that will be done next year
10:17where from the country's receipt side
10:19the target is Rp2,996.9 trillion
10:24or almost Rp3 trillion
10:26which consists of the tax of Rp2,490 trillion
10:30then there is Rp505.4 trillion for the country's receipt, not the tax
10:34then there is Rp3,613.1 trillion for the country's spending
10:40where the central government spends Rp2,693 trillion
10:44while the transfer to the region and also the village fund
10:48reaches Rp919.9 trillion
10:52next, the architecture of the House of Representatives in 2025
10:55health, there is Rp197.8 trillion
10:58education, Rp722.6 trillion
11:02then infrastructure, Rp400.3 trillion
11:05food security, Rp124.4 trillion
11:09and also social protection, which reaches Rp2,996.9 trillion
11:16let's continue our discussion with Mr. Eko Lustianto
11:19the Vice Director of Indef
11:21this is interesting, if we look at the country's spending
11:23which reaches Rp3,613 trillion
11:26there will still be a deficit
11:28but what do you think about the development of our RAPBN deficit in the future?
11:34yes, in general, the deficit in the future is about 2.5%
11:40because for a natural growth, 2.5% is quite high
11:47because we usually set the RAPBN with a deficit below 2.5%
11:52although later in the process we will also see the economic situation
11:56but with a deficit set at 2.5%
12:02then the possibility in the future is not that high
12:08because usually if it is close to 3%
12:11it will create a fluctuation in the financial market
12:14but if we look at the economic situation in the future
12:18there is also a possibility that the deficit can expand
12:21let's say this year, the deficit is still small
12:25but it has been set or outlooked
12:28until the end of the year it is about 2.7%
12:31it means that it will expand from the RAPBN of 2024 which is 2.29%
12:36next year, the RAPBN is 2.5%
12:40if there is an economy that is more volatile, it can be higher than that
12:47So, what do you think about the impact or the factors
12:51that give a pressure on the country's acceptance target in 2025?
12:57As mentioned earlier, there is a weakness in the purchasing power of the people
13:01PMI manufacturing is down and other factors
13:04Globally, it has not yet become one of the references from several countries
13:08where ASEAN countries' PMI manufacturing also experience the same thing
13:14Yes, I think it is related to the deficit
13:17there is a possibility that it will expand next year
13:20because there are two factors that cause this
13:22first, the fundamental economic aspect
13:25it seems that next year is not necessarily better than this year
13:29it can be seen from the macro data
13:31the second interesting aspect in Mr. Prabowo's government
13:35is the state's acceptance body
13:38a new institution
13:40because this usually needs adjustments
13:43it needs a process for adjustment in the institution
13:49but the tax target has been set and has risen
13:52almost 300 trillion compared to this year's outlook
13:58so it is imagined that the institution is adjusting
14:03but then it is faced with a higher target
14:06so they have to be quick
14:08both in terms of internal coordination adjustments
14:11as well as looking for new institutions
14:16like what Mr. Jokowi said earlier
14:19so these are pictures that I think are not easy to achieve
14:23almost 3,000 trillion in the next five years
14:26and the implications
14:27what if it is not achieved?
14:29there is still room for the deficit to expand
14:32that may be what will happen next year
14:35okay, so if the deficit expands
14:37we have to look for new sources of financing
14:39for example, by issuing a letter of debt and so on?
14:43that's the best option
14:45other options are a bit difficult
14:47but a letter of debt is possible
14:49moreover, next year there is also an image
14:53that the flower population will tend to decline
14:57this fat fund rate has been projected
14:59let's say 94%
15:02will start to decline in September and so on
15:06that may make our SBN more interesting
15:12with a flower or yield that is usually quite high
15:16at the ASEAN level
15:18so from there there is an opportunity to add SBN
15:24if with the assumption that the acceptance target was not achieved
15:28and the possibility of not achieving it becomes higher
15:30just like this year
15:31we are also trying to achieve the target
15:35so the acceptance of the country has not yet reached as planned
15:38that's it
15:39so we want to increase the income
15:41the first debt is worried about next year
15:45yes, there is a risk
15:47but of course
15:48there are many things we have to look at
15:50so the aspect of the institution
15:52the macro situation
15:53and also maybe including the leader himself
15:56who is the finance minister?
15:58that will determine
16:00the image of how to manage the SBN
16:04the finance will also determine
16:07so what strategy do you need to look for
16:10or maybe prepared by the next government?
16:12if indeed this is the transition period
16:14because in the transition period
16:16there have been several reshuffles in the Indonesian capital
16:19indeed later
16:20many people say this is prepared
16:22for the next government
16:24is this a sign of continuation?
16:26will it still happen or what?
16:29yes, we were talking about the challenge
16:33for example, there is also our capital
16:35which in my opinion is better
16:37compared to the previous election
16:41which was very crowded in Medsos
16:43the election is over
16:46the netizens are still hot
16:49now it doesn't happen like that
16:51so in my opinion
16:53the most important thing for the next government
16:55especially in the new government
16:57is to use this very smooth transition capital
17:00which is very cool
17:04on the political side
17:06this has to be used
17:08to boost confidence
17:12from the business world
17:14this has been read
17:16the economic picture
17:18the policy
17:20because the narrative continues
17:22is very strong
17:24in this transition
17:25so that the business world
17:27does not need to be nervous
17:29related to how the government policy
17:32in the economic field
17:34the second is also
17:35the most important thing
17:36I think this investment is a key
17:38for the aspect of chasing
17:41the target of receiving the country's 3 trillion earlier
17:44it doesn't mean that the investment has just entered
17:46immediately taxed
17:48so how to make sure
17:50the investment that comes in
17:51if there are a lot of investments
17:52the possibility of economic growth
17:54will be better
17:55job creation
17:57and the use of resources
18:01another factor
18:02which in my opinion is also a differentiator
18:04is some of Mr. Prabowo's programs
18:06do have the potential
18:08to boost the local economy
18:10UMKM
18:12because there is food and clothing
18:14there is also the aspect of this amendment
18:17schools and others
18:19all need labor
18:21and this requires local resources
18:24and it must be optimized
18:26to boost
18:28so that later
18:29maybe the economic growth
18:31will be 5.2
18:32but at least the balance is there
18:35so that the cake is enjoyed
18:38also the lower class
18:40middle class
18:41if that happens
18:43actually there is potential
18:45PPN
18:47or also
18:49other countries' acceptance
18:50can be better
18:52because the cortex system is also running
18:54so hopefully
18:56from all those strategies
18:58we hope it can be changed
19:00is there also a contribution
19:02from the business sector
19:03where in the last few years
19:05we know the flood of incentives is given
19:07will it be enough to meet the results
19:09in 2025
19:10we will discuss later in the next segment
19:12we will be back in a moment
19:14we will be back in a moment
19:16in the next segment
19:25yes, the more interesting our discussion
19:27together with Niko Lucianto
19:28Deputy Director of Indef
19:29Mas Eko, we will continue again
19:31talking about the industry
19:33which is expected to be the biggest contributor
19:36to the acceptance of the country in 2025
19:39with various incentives
19:41that have been distributed
19:42in the last few years
19:44then you see
19:45the transition running smoothly
19:47which is supposed to be
19:49our basic capital
19:50to build the economy in the future
19:51how do you see it?
19:53do we just have to
19:54how to pull the threads
19:56that have been spread
19:57for investment in the industry sector
19:59or do we still need more time?
20:02yes, if you look at the form of incentives
20:05actually there are quite a lot
20:06incentives in other words
20:07tax spending
20:08so incentives are given
20:10tax is reduced
20:11even zeroed
20:12so that later
20:13the sector that is given incentives
20:15is more vibrant
20:18so far
20:19our tax spending is quite large
20:21so indeed for the future
20:22if we want to give incentives
20:24it must be more selective
20:26really see
20:27whether when given incentives
20:30it directly affects the economy
20:33in some aspects
20:34I agree to add incentives
20:36for example in the industry sector
20:37because this industry is
20:39what is it
20:40already
20:41quote unquote
20:42agreed
20:43the way to accelerate the economy
20:46is to grow the industry
20:48hopefully
20:49this will also become a concern in the cabinet
20:51so when
20:53deciding who is the minister of industry
20:55like that
20:56like
20:57a level
20:58for example
20:59who is the finance minister
21:00so that later the industry is also
21:03very urgent
21:04to be able to accelerate the economy
21:06like that
21:07well
21:08the second
21:09all this time
21:10if you want to evaluate
21:11our incentives
21:12actually because maybe the narration
21:14one of them
21:15we are building a new capital
21:17okay
21:18a lot of incentives are spread there
21:20but in my opinion
21:21even if there is an investor
21:23come in
21:24and say
21:25yes
21:26for example
21:27like that
21:28it will also not directly
21:30accelerate the economy
21:31quickly like that
21:32so
21:33in my opinion
21:34rather than
21:35we say
21:36this kind of pioneer
21:37yes
21:38it does need incentives
21:39but
21:40in my opinion it doesn't have to be honest
21:41the honest one is
21:42to this industry
21:43like that
21:44who is ready
21:45for example there is an industry area
21:46yes
21:47there is
21:48yes
21:49special economic areas
21:50and others
21:51actually they
21:52in my opinion are more ready
21:53like that
21:54and
21:55spread all over Indonesia
21:56like that
21:57in many places
21:58like that
21:59this is actually more likely
22:00to see the economy
22:01from here
22:02compared to
22:03for example
22:04in Ibu Kota Baru
22:05yes Ibu Kota Baru
22:06is still running
22:07but
22:08there are a lot of incentives
22:09that directly
22:10increase the economy
22:11that directly to the industry
22:12it is just given to
22:13yes for example
22:14areas of the industry
22:15that are ready
22:16like that
22:17that kind of thing
22:18I think the impact
22:19will be stronger
22:20like that
22:21and maybe also
22:22sectoral
22:23which becomes
22:24our dependable industry
22:25like that
22:26okay okay
22:27what is also interesting
22:28is that
22:29investment
22:30more capital
22:31rather than
22:32maybe the hard work
22:33must also increase
22:34the skill
22:35in our society
22:36to be able to
22:37adapt to
22:38new technology
22:39for example
22:40yes
22:41this is actually
22:42a choice from
22:43the strategy
22:44if
22:45capital density
22:46or labor density
22:47both
22:48of course
22:49if it comes
22:50capital density
22:51we don't need to
22:52reject
22:53something like that
22:54okay
22:55but in the country
22:56the urgency
22:57we also need
22:58labor density
22:59like that
23:00so we can
23:01make sure
23:02what needs to be done
23:03in my opinion
23:04for example
23:05we have
23:06investment asset
23:07like that
23:08or whatever
23:09the name is
23:10policy
23:11that
23:12makes
23:13the department
23:14cross
23:15the ministry
23:16like that
23:17well
23:18try to do that
23:19don't just look at
23:20the aggregate
23:21of the investment
23:22but also make sure
23:23from the aspect
23:24of absorption
23:25of labor energy
23:26like that
23:27if all this time
23:28maybe because
23:29the narrative
23:30of hillarization
23:31don't want
23:32don't want
23:33it has to be
23:34capital dense
23:35something like that
23:36because in the beginning
23:37building factories
23:38and others
23:39that process
23:40a large natural resource
23:41like that
23:42but outside
23:43in my opinion
23:44in the future
23:45MSMEs like that
23:46how to
23:47at the MSME level
23:48also easier
23:49like that
23:50then
23:51also more
23:52say
23:53be touched
23:54with policy
23:55from
23:56various ministries
23:57like that
23:58we have
23:59ministries
24:00like that
24:01we have
24:02Ministry of Investment
24:03we also have
24:04various
24:05like that
24:06and that
24:07if it can be more
24:08combined
24:09in my opinion
24:10how can it be different
24:11like that
24:12between the figure
24:13of investment
24:14let's say
24:155 years
24:16with maybe
24:175 years later
24:18in the new government
24:19like that
24:20so that
24:21balance
24:22so
24:23those who come
24:24with a lot of capital
24:25we accept
24:26those who come
24:27with a lot of potential
24:28labor
24:29like that
24:30okay
24:31so how is your projection
24:32in 2025
24:33related to the acceptance target
24:34of the country
24:35which is almost
24:363000 trillion earlier
24:37is it really
24:38yes
24:39enough
24:40prepared
24:41or indeed
24:42we can get
24:43a new source of income
24:44for example
24:45with PPN 12%
24:46but with incentives
24:47that have also been spread
24:48yes
24:49my guess
24:50the possibility
24:51will be prepared
24:52means
24:53the target
24:54difficult to achieve
24:55so far
24:56because
24:57and then
24:58increase PPN
24:59add
25:00sweetened drinks
25:01it won't solve the problem
25:02besides
25:03the potential is not very big
25:04yes
25:05to be able to add
25:06acceptance of the country
25:07like that
25:08so maybe
25:09the better thing is
25:10how
25:11make sure
25:12the purchasing power is good first
25:13like that
25:14if the purchasing power is good enough
25:15okay
25:16whether it's from PTPP
25:17increased
25:18and so on
25:19yes
25:20there are ways
25:21for PPN to be delayed
25:22like that
25:23so that people want to consume
25:24from the consumer
25:25yes
25:26people later
25:27want to produce more
25:28like that
25:29because they know the argument
25:30like that
25:31from there
25:32later
25:33acceptance of the country
25:34we hope it's better
25:35like that
25:36okay
25:37means
25:38which is very fundamental
25:39we have to improve
25:40how to increase
25:41the purchasing power of the community
25:42like that
25:43then
25:44how to create
25:45job opportunities there
25:46so there are
25:47sources of income
25:48for the community
25:49to consume
25:50like that
25:51Mas Eko
25:52Mas Eko
25:53thank you very much
25:54for the time
25:55sharing that you have
25:56in 2025
25:57continue
25:58your activities
25:59again
26:00good health
26:01Mas Eko
26:02thank you
26:03yes
26:04good health
26:05thank you