Australia and Indonesia’s relationship deepens
Australia and Indonesia have agreed to an upgraded defence cooperation agreement. The deal to be signed in Indonesia in coming days.
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00:00Look, at the moment we still don't have the text of the treaty, but we've got a pretty
00:06good idea of what's coming via Richard Miles, the Defence Minister.
00:10Now, what is this agreement?
00:11It is not a defence treaty in the traditional sense, like the treaty that Australia has,
00:16for example, with the United States.
00:18So there's no obligation in this agreement, for example, if either country is threatened
00:22for them to consult with one another to decide what to do next.
00:26This is nothing like that.
00:27This is basically a step which has been taken by both countries to streamline the way that
00:32their militaries operate in the other country.
00:35And that's going to make it easier for both Australia and Indonesia to send defence platforms
00:40in the other direction, for their personnel to come here and vice versa.
00:44And that will in time make it easier for both countries to engage in larger and more complex
00:50defence exercises more often.
00:52It will also make it easier for the two countries to engage in what's called intraoperability.
00:56In other words, the two navies or armies can operate together more smoothly and more
01:01effectively.
01:02Now, the Defence Minister Richard Miles is really talking up the significance of this
01:06agreement.
01:07He's said that it's the most significant agreement the two countries have ever signed.
01:11Let's take a listen to what he had to say speaking to afternoon briefing earlier today.
01:16This is not an alliance as such.
01:20I mean, Indonesia has a proud history of being non-aligned.
01:25But what this does represent is a much greater ease by which we cooperate with each other
01:30in terms of defence, as I've described.
01:32And I think in that deeper sense, what we can take from this is really a new level of
01:38strategic trust which exists between Australia and Indonesia.
01:41I mean, this is very much both countries saying to each other that we see our respective security
01:48as being embedded in each other.
01:50And that's, you know, when you think about the history of both our countries, the journey
01:54that we've been on over many decades, it's actually a historically profound moment to
01:58be at a point where we do see our security lie in each other.
02:02So historically profound is how the Defence Minister describes it.
02:06Prabowo Subianto, though, the Defence Minister and incoming president of Indonesia, who's
02:10been in Canberra for talks here today, was much less expansive.
02:13He only made a brief reference to the agreement in the remarks that they made immediately
02:17after their meeting.
02:19Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
02:22Good progress, great progress, may I say, in our defence cooperation agreement.
02:28We have ironed out some legalistic details, I think, in a very good outcome.
02:40So Stephen, is it really the most significant agreement that the two countries have ever
02:44signed as the Defence Minister referenced earlier today?
02:47Well, look, it's difficult to say for certain, and I guess these things are always a little
02:51bit subjective, but I've spoken to a few analysts today, people who really study the
02:56relationship closely, and they're not necessarily convinced that this upgraded agreement is
03:00truly the most significant agreement the two countries have ever signed.
03:04They point out that Paul Keating actually signed a security agreement in 1995 with Indonesia.
03:09That was more significant because it had some treaty-like elements to it.
03:13It had some strategic assurances that both countries gave one another.
03:17We've got nothing like that in this agreement, at least so far as we can tell.
03:22And now, of course, that agreement was torn up by Indonesia in 1999 during the Timor crisis.
03:28But even then, in 2006, there was the Lombok Treaty, which again was a really foundational
03:32document between the two countries.
03:34So people who study the relationship very closely say yes, this is a big deal, and yes,
03:39it's an important step.
03:40It formalises, in some senses, what's already happening with this really stepped-up defence
03:45cooperation and joint exercises between Indonesia and Australia.
03:49But they also say it's probably not fair to call it either historic or transformative.
03:54Because in the end, Indonesia remains non-aligned, and it's not going to draw itself into any
03:59sort of formal military alliance with the US, with Australia, or with anyone else.
04:04So given that, Stephen, what can we expect from Prabowo-Sibianto when it comes to foreign
04:09policy?
04:10Look, we'll have to wait and see.
04:12Perhaps the most interesting thing will be just how unpredictable Prabowo might be.
04:17That's probably going to be the main change.
04:19The current president, Joko Widodo, wasn't hugely or hasn't been hugely interested in
04:24foreign policy.
04:25Prabowo, most analysts think, is likely to put his stamp on foreign policy more.
04:30That might mean that there are more opportunities for countries like Australia, but also pitfalls
04:34if he decides to do things that people aren't expecting.
04:38So difficult to say, but overall, the underpinnings of Indonesian foreign policy and its non-alignment
04:44are not likely to change.
04:46Indonesia is going to continue to chart its own course.
04:49Australia's best hope is that it can reach an agreement with Indonesia over time that
04:53slowly draws it more close to Australia.
04:58But again, this is going to be a slow and difficult work with no immediate rewards close
05:04to hand.