Golf Wednesday Best Bets: Expert Picks & Game Insights
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00:00Well, coast to coast here on a Wednesday, a golf Wednesday on
00:04C2C, Carver High in for Scotty.
00:07Great to have you with us on Sports Grid and Sports Grid
00:10radio. Of course, every week here on a golf Wednesday, we
00:13give you the outrights, the placements, the first round
00:16leader bombs, everything, usually the prime minister out
00:20on assignment this week. So we bring in our other golf guru
00:25who usually does the live with me. Brady Cannon steps up and
00:28then Brady, good to see you as always, my man. And listen,
00:31Brady on fire with the PGA as well, because I know Brady had
00:36Hideki Matsuyama last week in that first leg of the playoff at
00:41the St. Jude. Brady, great to see you and congrats on going to
00:44the window with Hideki.
00:46Hey, thank you very much, Mike. Big shoes to fill here with
00:50filling in for Cam Stewart, but on a golf Wednesday. Yeah, I'm
00:54glad to just be here and be alive, Michael. I mean, sweating
00:57that Hideki Matsuyama ticket last week was something. I mean,
01:01he had a five shot lead with seven to play. And oh my gosh,
01:05then it was almost gone in a wink of an eye. He went four
01:09over par the next four holes. And thankfully, Victor Hovland
01:12missed a couple of putts down the stretch and Hideki nails
01:15that bomb at 17. And, and we got home, but they're never easy,
01:20are they?
01:21They're never easy, Brady. And it's funny, because we all do
01:25this. And we all spend Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday just kind
01:28of looking at numbers or looking at angles and looking at all
01:32these things. And one of the biggest things that was thrown
01:34around for three days last week, was that Hideki doesn't have his
01:39caddy. He doesn't have his coach. They all got the you
01:43know, they got robbed in London had to go back to Japan to get
01:45their passport. Oh, you can't play a decade this week. He's so
01:48tight. He's close with everyone. He goes out and wins Brady. So
01:52that's just kind of sometimes all these things that we
01:55obsess over, when we're trying to get ready for the golf, you
01:58just got to throw them out the window. Sometimes it's funny.
02:01Oh, you're absolutely right. And I thought he was a great fit for
02:04the golf course. One of the heaviest statistics I leaned on
02:07last week was scrambling. You know, Hideki is one of the best
02:10in the world. Over the last 24 rounds coming in, he was second
02:14in that field and scrambling. And I love the way the course
02:17was similar to what we saw like off national in Paris, where you
02:22had a lot of water, relatively narrow fairways, and you really
02:25kind of had to work your ball around and avoid that water
02:28hazard that were you know, that was everywhere in Paris and very
02:32similar at TPC Southwind in Memphis, where you had I think
02:3511 holes where water came into play. And Hideki obviously was
02:40able to negotiate it in Paris getting the bronze medal. And he
02:44basically just replicated the same formula off the tee. And he
02:47got red, absolutely scorching hot with the putter for the
02:51first three days. And you know what that usually means you cool
02:54off on the final day. So I was worried but he was able to to
02:57make a couple one accounted and get us home.
03:00And now he's gonna sit in some very cushy position heading out
03:04to Castle Pines for the BMW Hideki don't got to worry about
03:09much. He'll be at Eastlake next week in Atlanta for the tour
03:12championship. Let's talk about this course Brady because I like
03:17when we get a place that we don't normally see. I think it
03:20makes it fun. It makes it interesting. I love the same old
03:23places. But of course, that's been over 20 years. Since it's
03:27been played on the PGA TOUR 48 out of the 50 guys in the field
03:30have never played a competitive round at this place. So I think
03:34it makes it very intriguing. We know who's going to be the chalk
03:37at the top. And that's going to be Scottie Scheffler. Of course,
03:39Xander Shoffle. Rory gets bumped down a little bit after a very
03:44tough weekend for him in Memphis. Tell me a little bit
03:47about Castle Pines very long, Brady.
03:51Yeah, absolutely. It'll be the longest PGA TOUR course ever at
03:55over 8100 yards. Now, you figure in the altitude, they're playing
03:59at about 6300 feet. And the course is probably going to
04:03adjust to about 7400 yards the way it plays and a par 72.
04:09That's actually pretty standard length. But you go back to the
04:12international. You mentioned it started in 1986. I used to love
04:16to watch this tour event. You know, you get to see the
04:18mountains and the streams and golf in Colorado, which we don't
04:21always see and seeing these players just launch the ball at
04:25elevation. So yeah, I'm absolutely excited to be back
04:28here. I think total driving will be a big factor this week, Mike,
04:32because it's going to take these guys a minute to adjust to that
04:36elevation. And how do they, you know, how do they kind of rein
04:39in their ball off the tee, maintaining the accuracy, yet
04:43trying to take advantage of that thin air and get it out
04:46there as far as they can as well. So I think total driving
04:49is going to be key. You're going to have a lot of approach shots
04:52from 200 yards or better. And it's going to be a different
04:55club than you're used to hitting from 200 yards or better when
04:59we're down at sea level. And I think you're going to miss a lot
05:02of greens and regulation. So once again, like we talked about
05:05with a decade, I think scrambling will be important
05:07once again this week. And I think they're going to make some
05:10scores, Mike. One local odds maker out here at the Westgate
05:14Superbook. He made the under over proposition for winning
05:18score of 22 and a half, 22 and a half under par. So he is
05:23expecting some birdies here at Castle Pines. And I don't
05:27disagree necessarily, if you can find some fairways and get your
05:31approach game on, you're going to make some scores here this
05:34week.
05:35All right, Brady, give it to me the outrights for you this week
05:39in Colorado.
05:41Well, first of all, I'm right there with you. I didn't play
05:44it. But I absolutely agree with your Morikawa play. I was on him
05:48last week. I like to go on this guy when driving accuracy, I
05:52feel is more of a factor. And he's been so close. I said
05:56basically the same thing that you just said, it would be wild
05:59if we went through this entire year with without Morikawa
06:02winning. He's been so close. So I'm rooting for you. We do land
06:06on the same guy in Justin Thomas. I got him at like 52 to
06:11one. Isn't that amazing? 50 players in the field and Justin
06:15Thomas is 52 to one. That's crazy. But it just tells you
06:19where his game has gone the last couple years, but we've started
06:21to see it turn around. A couple things I looked at this week
06:25where how have guys done when playing at elevation? And how
06:29have they done on Jack Nicklaus designs? Well, Justin Thomas has
06:32done tremendous at the memorial. He's got a number of top 10
06:36finishes their top 15 finishes at the memorial. And then also
06:40when they played that workday charity open member when they
06:43went back to back weeks at Muirfield Village in 2020.
06:47Thomas lost in a playoff actually to who your guy Colin
06:51Morikawa, and he also finished runner up at Sherwood Country
06:55Club in Thousand Oaks, California, another Nicklaus
06:57design when they played the Zozo there in 2020. So he's got the
07:02Nicklaus chops. And at the WGC Mexico, when they used to play
07:06there at elevation, they played that tournament for four years
07:09at Chapultepec. And Thomas was a machine there. Every year, all
07:13four years, he finished top 10. And he was runner up one year as
07:16well. So, you know, it just makes sense from those two
07:19angles. And I said, Okay, 52. Let's try it with JT and see if
07:23he can recreate what he's done in the past at elevation and at
07:27Nicklaus design golf courses. And then like you said, I went
07:30to a big dog. I went with Rory McIlroy. Okay, there's 50 guys
07:34in the field. And let's be realistic. Let's say 30 of them
07:37have a realistic chance to win, right? So Rory McIlroy at 16 to
07:42one in a field of 30. Basically, I thought that was a pretty good
07:46price. I think we're getting a little bit of value because he
07:48finished second to last last week in Memphis. I talked about
07:52total driving. There's nobody better. He's second on the PGA
07:56Tour and total driving is Rory McIlroy. There's reports that
07:59he's just been blistering the golf ball out there. He might
08:02hit it 400 yards one time this week. If he can find the
08:05fairways, he's going to be tough to beat. And then I went a
08:08little deeper at 25 to one to another guy that just mashes the
08:12ball off the tree off the T long and straight number three on
08:17tour in total driving Ludwig. Oh, Baird. Also great on
08:21approach. You know, I just think again a fit for this golf
08:24course. And I think me when we may have gotten some value on
08:27his price as well with him finishing 40th last week. So I
08:31was a little surprised to see him as high as 25. Now he's
08:35creeped down a little bit. I've seen him closer to 2021 to one.
08:39I thought 25 was a tick too high. And then I went with Mr.
08:42Red Hot. Billy Horschel has three top 10 finishes in a row
08:47comes off of the runner up at the Open Championship finished
08:51eighth at Valhalla earlier this year. Another Nicholas design
08:54has won at Mirafield Village before the Memorial Tournament
08:58and Nicholas design and has won at elevation the last time the
09:02BMW championship was in Colorado 2014 17 miles away at Cherry
09:08Hills. Who is your winner? Billy Horschel and he went on to win
09:11the FedEx Cup that year. So give me McElroy, Oberg, Horschel
09:15and JT for a four pack. I think you're absolutely right. Brady
09:19you're getting two guys there at this really three if you count
09:22JT. You're right. That's a discounted price with only 50
09:24guys in the field. But Rory's been coming off between five and
09:2710. And you're getting them at 16. Ludwig's been between 15 and
09:3120. And you're getting them at 25. That's nice. Quickly, Brady.
09:35Here's what I got for placements. I'm with you on
09:37Rory. He's bouncing back this week. He's gonna have a chip on
09:40his shoulder after how bad he played. I'll play him t five at
09:42210. Fleetwood, Finau and Sepp Straka all top 10s for me. These
09:47are guys that are right around that 30 number got to make sure
09:50that they're playing at Eastlake next week. And Nick
09:52Dunlap and Eric Cole for me riding a little hot wave guys
09:55who are between 30 and 50 Brady that really need to play well.
09:59They might not do enough to get there. But I think they'll play
10:02well again this weekend and set themselves up for a chance on
10:05Sunday. First round leaders we had Chris Kirk last week at 90
10:09to one. Cantlay, Fleetwood, Rye, Zalatoris, Sepp and Cole. We like
10:14guys who are either fast starters or played well on
10:16Sunday and they're coming into this event. Brady, there it is
10:20the golf Wednesday picks baby. I'm glad you were with me.
10:23Go Nick Dunlap man. I know he's taken some sharp action to
10:27finish top 20 here in Las Vegas at Circa.