Dampak Sentimen Politik Terhadap Bursa Saham
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (22/08/2024) dengan Tema Dampak Sentimen Politik Terhadap Bursa Saham".
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00:00This morning, we will talk with Mr. Wawan Hendrayana, who is the Vice President of InfoVesta.
00:12Good morning, Mr. Wawan.
00:14Good morning.
00:15Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. Wawan.
00:17Let's talk about a hot topic, which is political sentiment.
00:25It's related to the election law between Balek and MSMEs.
00:29What is your stance on this?
00:31How far will this give sentiment to the capital market in the middle of being optimistic?
00:37Especially the joint stock index, in order to continue to break the all-time high, the highest record in a long time.
00:45Yes, of course.
00:48One of the political processes and dynamics is that we have to accept and respect what has been decided by both MSMEs and DPR.
01:00In the capital market itself, in general, political sentiment or some political processes will have a short-term effect, even if it is on the stock exchange.
01:12I see that at the moment, the market continues to respond that the RAPBN 2025 budget can be received well by the market.
01:22And also the expectation that the flow rate will drop is far more encouraging for the stock exchange to move.
01:29As we can see, we have passed the all-time high for the past few days.
01:34Although there is concern that there will be profit taking, but I think with the current trend, we can still be positive.
01:42You still see that we can still be more positive.
01:45So there is a chance that the joint stock index will reach 7,600, even exceeding that in the near future, Mr. Wawan?
01:52Yes, if there is a trend, it is very possible.
01:557,600, we only need to increase by 0.5% and it will reach that level.
02:00But of course, no one can guess for sure what the direction of the movement will be.
02:04Even though we believe that it can reach 7,600, but there must be a profit taking action because we have increased quite significantly.
02:11So investors, for those who are playing short-term, yes, consider profit taking.
02:18But for long-term investors, there is no problem. We can continue to hold until at least next year.
02:25Okay, so which one is stronger, between the positive sentiment and the political sentiment?
02:35It seems that the positive sentiment is still more dominant.
02:38Especially regarding the meeting of a number of central banks in Jackson Hall, Wyoming,
02:46where the Fed or the Chairman of the Central Bank of the United States, Jerome Powell,
02:50will probably give a comment about what is most anticipated,
02:53is there going to be a flower-seeding in September?
02:56So, according to you, it is a sentiment that still drives a positive movement from the global stock market, including IHSG, right?
03:04That's right. We see that the potential, now analysts have seen up to 70%,
03:11the expectation that the Fed will reduce at least once in September and maybe once again in December.
03:19Okay, there will be a two-fold decrease in September and December.
03:26Okay, when that happens, let's put it in September first, the most anticipated,
03:33our market, IHSG, where do you think the opportunity will go, Mr. Wawan?
03:39Yes, if we look at it, actually the all-time high market has passed 7,500,
03:42this is already an expectation that it will go down.
03:45If it turns out that there is no decrease, I think we should be prepared for a correction.
03:51But in terms of the trend itself, I see that IHSG's target this year is around 7,500-7,600.
03:59So, we are already approaching the target.
04:02If there is a surprise, especially from the positive economic side,
04:07it is possible that it will go down to 7,700.
04:10But I see that the level of 7,600 is already relatively overbought.
04:17So, investors should, in the short term, consider profit-taking.
04:23Okay, related to the DPR return,
04:27which is said to be related to the decision of MSMEs on the Legislative Assembly,
04:33it just happened at the meeting last night, so the reaction is limited to social media.
04:39Maybe there will be some that go down the road and so on.
04:44What should be done by investors?
04:47Maybe there are emittents, maybe if IHSG is not too affected,
04:50but there are certain emittents that must be monitored regarding this political issue, or how?
04:56Yes, once again, the political issue, we have experienced several candidates,
05:02the political effect on the capital market is just a short-term sentiment.
05:08Even within a day, usually.
05:10So, I hope that all the aspirations of the community can be delivered peacefully.
05:17And also, if there is a demo or something, it usually doesn't affect the stocks too much,
05:25because they are more affected by the macroeconomics,
05:29the prospects of the business in the long term, rather than the short term.
05:35Okay, you look more at the macroeconomics in the long term.
05:40And what has also been known is the RAPBN 2025.
05:44Many people say that a certain amount of stocks have the opportunity to be profited.
05:48What is your analysis there?
05:49Which stocks are worthy to be profited, which we can see from the RAPBN 2025?
05:58Of course, if we talk about the RAPBN 2025 with the existing assumptions,
06:03still, the financial sector is the main pillar of the economy in Indonesia.
06:09So, the banking sector, especially if the interest rate is going down, is the most expected.
06:14Then we can also see the sectors that are affected if the interest rate drops.
06:18One of them is automotive sales.
06:20Those are the stocks of the Astra Group, we can see that.
06:24And of course, the RAPBN 2025 has estimated for food.
06:31Anyway, the consumer goods sector will also be profited.
06:36So, the consumer goods sectors, JPP, Indofood, and even Alphamat, Mayoral, can also be profited.
06:44Oh, it can be likened to the mid-term, right? At least until 2025, Mr. Wawan?
06:51Yes, that's right. Of course, the RAPBN 2025 will be implemented next year.
06:58Indeed, the effect of the RAPBN will be seen in the emittance finance report,
07:03which should be seen in Q2 or Q3.
07:06But of course, if we talk about stocks,
07:09all of them are buying based on the expected energy in the future.
07:13So, it's only natural that there will be a rally this year.
07:17Okay. So, what should be the strategy for retail investors to make purchases, Mr. Wawan,
07:23for stocks that do have a chance in 2025, along with the RAPBN?
07:30Yes, I always recommend it to investors, especially beginners, to join the Yuk Nabung Saham program.
07:38It means that we can buy stocks regularly, maybe every month.
07:43Actually, in investment, this is called cost averaging.
07:47So, if we are confident in the future, and we have a long time horizon, more than a year,
07:56then there is no problem for us to make purchases every month.
07:59It can be at the beginning of the month, it can be at the end of the month.
08:02But if we are confident to buy, it can be a good risk mitigation.
08:08Okay. That's it.
08:10What about blue chips?
08:11Among the indexes of joint stock prices that are all-time high, or the highest record in recent times,
08:16many people say that the blue chips are not too significant.
08:20The blue chips are still far from the highest record.
08:22What is your analysis?
08:24Do you think that the all-time high or the record recorded by the index of joint stock prices
08:32is strong enough to be supported by blue chips?
08:38Yes, of course, if we talk about stocks that move the IASG,
08:44there are many big cap stocks that may not even be considered blue chips.
08:50But of course, if we talk about blue chips, we talk about one of them is Samsung Finance, for example.
08:55Big four banks.
08:56They are not just not going up high, they have been deeply corrected.
09:01Mandiri, Bang Mandiri, for example, has been corrected by 6,000.
09:04Now it's back to 7,000.
09:06BCA has also been corrected to 9,000.
09:09It has gone up another 1,400 for now.
09:11So, in fact, they have already done the rally.
09:15Although it was corrected first.
09:18Can they go all-time high again?
09:20Yes, very likely.
09:21Historically, the blue chips, especially the big four banks,
09:27have always been able to go back to the all-time high.
09:31There are actually three keys.
09:34One is that their fundamentals are always good.
09:38Two is that the business prospects are always maintained.
09:40And the third is liquidity.
09:42These three factors can make them go back to the all-time high.
09:47Okay, that's it.
09:48The opportunity from Samsung Blue Chips.
09:51And it's done.
09:52With your analysis earlier, the price-to-joint index has been all-time high
09:55and has been targeted.
09:57Even if there is a boost, at most to 7,700, not too high anymore.
10:02What should retail investors do, Mr. Wawan?
10:06We will discuss and recommend your choice.
10:08Mr. Mir, after the break, stay with us in the market bus segment.