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00:00The Philz and the Braves today, the third and final game of the set in Atlanta.
00:08It's a virtual pick'em once again, Spencer Schwellenbach and the Braves, a very, very
00:12slight favorite against the Philz today.
00:15The over-under is eight, who takes the rubber match, who takes the series?
00:20And that's interesting, this game is in Atlanta tonight, not in Philadelphia.
00:22The reason I bring that up is Christopher Sanchez is a really good pitcher here, but
00:26there are some question marks about where he pitches better at.
00:29And Citizens Bank ballpark is not a great pitcher's ballpark.
00:32I understand, it's on the road, but hear me out on this.
00:34If the game was in Philadelphia, you know who the best pitcher analytically on the card
00:37would be today?
00:38Christopher Sanchez, a 218 ERA at home, an XFIP number of 2.63, that's through 86 and
00:44two-thirds innings pitched.
00:46Filthy at home.
00:47Now let's go on the road.
00:48So going from the top pitcher, we drop him to the 12th pitcher here, Ben, a 5.53 ERA,
00:54over 53 and two-thirds innings pitched, and an XFIP of 4.24.
00:57Schwellenbach, who came up to the majors, a little bit of a rocky start, has really
01:00settled in as a quality starter.
01:03You're still looking at pedigree, right?
01:05The Phillies are the better team, and I keep saying it.
01:07The Atlanta Braves, a triple-A team, basically thrown up there.
01:09The Phillies should win by default at this point.
01:12But if we are looking at that total, which is listed at eight, I don't know if we get
01:15nine runs.
01:16I don't think the game will go over yesterday, and it didn't.
01:18So if Sanchez has a decent performance, I don't trust those bats for Atlanta.
01:22And if Schwellenbach is decent, the bats for the Phillies haven't shown up basically in
01:27a month, it feels like, at this point.
01:28So maybe the better bet would be to an under in this game.