Florida State vs Georgia Tech: 2024 CFP Week Zero Preview
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00:00It is not the greatest week zero slate we have ever seen in the history of CFB.
00:08It's not even the best week zero slate we have seen in the last few seasons.
00:12But we do have an ACC affair with a preseason top 10 team to kick off the 2024 campaign
00:20tomorrow in Ireland.
00:22It's the Dublin debut of 10th ranked Florida State and Georgia Tech in ACC clash to begin
00:292024 in college football that from a betting perspective has been a fascinating case study
00:35in the last week and a half.
00:37Florida State, top 10 team in the preseason, perfect undefeated and an ACC champ entering
00:44the bowl season last year.
00:46The Seminoles opened as a 13 and a half point favorite.
00:49Donnie, they're still favored by double digits, expected to win the game outright in a large
00:54way over the Yellow Jackets.
00:57But 13 and a half about 10 days ago has now become closer to single digits than to touchdowns.
01:04Only a 10 and a half point spread.
01:06Total 55 and a half.
01:07Where do you fall on the eve of the 2024 college football season?
01:12Yeah, we talked about it in the last week when that line was 11 and a half and I did
01:15like Georgia Tech because there's a lot of, you know, we don't know what's going to take
01:19place.
01:20Breaking a new quarterback for Florida State, you're not exactly playing at Doak Campbell
01:23either.
01:24We're kind of off seas here.
01:25So neither one of these teams is used to playing in that environment.
01:27Maybe it'll be a little bit sloppy right off the top, but also what you can't deny, sometimes
01:32we're looking at like professional handicappers, right?
01:34We say, okay, the season's just starting.
01:35The public usually has an eye on the game going, ooh, which way do we want to go here?
01:40And as Ben just pointed out, this line was hovering around two touchdowns here.
01:44Let's just call it 13 and a half.
01:45Now this line sits at 10 and a half at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
01:49If you go right to the FanDuel Sportsbook and click on statistics for this game, betting
01:53statistics, that is 72% of the tickets coming in on Florida State, 69% of the money coming
01:58in on Florida State, 13 and a half down to 10 and a half.
02:02That means some sharp action is coming in the opposite way on Georgia Tech.
02:05Does it always win?
02:06No, it doesn't.
02:07But I always like these false flag type games saying everybody you talk to typically likes
02:11Florida State.
02:12And then you say, well, why wouldn't that line be going from 13 and a half and to 17
02:16and a half, not 13 and a half back down to 10 and a half.
02:18It's just those little betting intricacies that we see early in the season that you pay
02:22attention to.
02:23But a lot of people like Florida State, but can't answer for why that line is actually
02:26dropping here.
02:27Yeah, it is really interesting.
02:29We shared some insights from those around the sports betting landscape earlier in the
02:34week that a lot of the sharp money, that big market moving money is on the Georgia Tech
02:39Yellow Jackets who enter year number two, fully under Brent Key, who played his college
02:45football on the defensive side of the ball there in Atlanta, Georgia for Georgia Tech
02:50interim head coach in 2022 after Jeff Collins was dismissed, led Georgia Tech to a four
02:56and four season in his tenure, seven and six last year with a ball victory.
03:01It may be most important DRS for a big two touchdown spread in a conference game.
03:07Georgia Tech was seven and two against the number as an underdog a season ago, Florida
03:11State favored 11 times last year, six and five against the spread to Donnie's point.
03:17DJ is now the quarterback for FSU, a guy with plenty of college football and ACC experience,
03:2548 games in his career, a 30 and 10 record as a starter last season in Corvallis at Oregon
03:33State, the first three years of his tenure at Clemson.
03:37Donnie, when you look at some of the props that are available, one of the other reasons
03:42that I think a lot of people are looking at Georgia Tech is the consistency of a promising
03:47young head coach in Brent Key and the quarterback of Haynes King being back for a second straight
03:52season.
03:53187 in a hook is his passing yards prop, FSU's sixth best passing defense in the country
03:59a season ago, and they're two all ACC performers in the secondary to return this year, but
04:06it's also his legs.
04:07Haynes King over 700 yards on the ground last year, 10 rushing scores, his rushing yards
04:13prop, 42 and a half against Florida State's defense.
04:16Yeah.
04:17And the tough part about that too, is we always have to remind people, if you are on the Fandul
04:20sports book, looking at players rushing, you're like, boy, Ben just told you, this guy's an
04:23unbelievable runner, 42 and a half.
04:25That's really easy.
04:26Well, understand this, Florida State's got some weapons in that front seven and they
04:29put pressure on you, which means you take sacks that goes away from your rushing yards.
04:33So theoretically, you can have a hundred yards on the ground as a quarterback and say, Ben,
04:38why did he wind up with 62 yards?
04:39Well, cause that's what happens here in college football.
04:41I don't know why they've ever not done away with that rule.
04:43Just one of those quirks they have, same thing with DJU out there, 20 and a half rushing
04:47yards here.
04:48Oh, that should be easier, but also take it to account that the favorites might take knees
04:51at the end of the football game, but also if you take sacks, you will lose that.
04:55But most of these are correlated.
04:56If you think Georgia Tech is going to hang around and win this game, Haynes King is probably
04:59going to be a big deal.
05:00They're throwing the football for close to 200 yards and or rushing.
05:03If he goes under those two totals, I doubt the fact that they're going to be hanging
05:07around this football game within single digits here, but also it is the first game you're
05:12taking a lot of leaps here.
05:13As Ben pointed out, sometimes just having that quarterback in the system back for another
05:17year after having some success here, you can look to take that leap into the second year.
05:21And the question marks more from Florida State side, do we know Florida State has better
05:24football players?
05:25Of course we do, but it's just a matter of that game against Georgia.
05:29A lot of talent left the building, breaking in a new quarterback overseas.
05:33Sometimes that's a little bit more to deal with here.
05:35And that line, we know Ben, it wouldn't be 10 and a half.
05:38It was a dope Campbell.
05:39It will be well over two touchdowns as a favorite for Florida State.