Menteri Pertanian, Andi Amran Sulaiman optimistis produksi beras pada tahun ini bakal naik seiring adanya prakiraan La Nina yang akan terjadi di Indonesia. Amran memproyeksikan kenaikan produksi beras bisa mencapai 10% akibat adanya La Nina.
Adapun, produksi beras pada Agustus hingga Oktober 2024 diperkirakan akan mengalami surplus. Bahkan, produksi pada September 2024 diproyeksi mencapai 2,87 juta ton, dan menjadi yang tertinggi selama 10 tahun terakhir.
Amran menyebut, proyeksi produksi yang tinggi pada Agustus - Oktober 2024 menjadi sebuah anomali yang terjadi di musim kemarau. Dia pun mengeklaim, anomali produksi beras yang menguntungkan itu terjadi berkat upaya mereka menggencarkan program penyediaan pompa air (pompanisasi), optimalisasi lahan (opla), hingga penyediaan benih unggul secara gratis kepada petani.
Adapun, produksi beras pada Agustus hingga Oktober 2024 diperkirakan akan mengalami surplus. Bahkan, produksi pada September 2024 diproyeksi mencapai 2,87 juta ton, dan menjadi yang tertinggi selama 10 tahun terakhir.
Amran menyebut, proyeksi produksi yang tinggi pada Agustus - Oktober 2024 menjadi sebuah anomali yang terjadi di musim kemarau. Dia pun mengeklaim, anomali produksi beras yang menguntungkan itu terjadi berkat upaya mereka menggencarkan program penyediaan pompa air (pompanisasi), optimalisasi lahan (opla), hingga penyediaan benih unggul secara gratis kepada petani.
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TVTranscript
00:00Updated daily Monday to Friday.
00:20Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:22Welcome back to Market Review with me, Prasetyo Wibo.
00:26Today's Market Review will focus on food commodities, especially rice.
00:32In September, it is predicted to be the peak of national rice production.
00:37In fact, this is the highest prediction in the last 10 years.
00:41What's the catch?
00:42Let's start the complete Market Review.
00:45Updated daily Monday to Friday.
00:54Minister of Agriculture, Andi Amran Sulaiman predicted that rice production in September 2024 will reach 2.8 million tons
01:03and will be the highest production in the last 10 years.
01:09The Ministry of Agriculture said that rice production in Indonesia will have a positive impact on the phenomenon of lanina.
01:21The Ministry of Agriculture is optimistic that rice production this year will increase
01:25as the phenomenon of lanina is predicted to occur in Indonesia.
01:30Minister of Agriculture, Andi Amran Sulaiman predicted that rice production will increase by 10% due to the phenomenon of lanina.
01:38Amran said that rice production in August to October 2024 is expected to experience a surplus.
01:45In fact, Amran predicted that rice production in September 2024 will be the highest in the last 10 years.
01:53Minister of Agriculture, this is August.
01:55Let's take a look at September.
01:57It's 2.8 million tons.
02:01This has never happened in 10 years.
02:04In September.
02:06Because we moved the pump earlier,
02:08because we moved the mill,
02:10this has never happened in 10 years.
02:12This is what was read here in 5 years.
02:14Then,
02:17August, 2.8 million tons.
02:20That was the highest in the last 4 years.
02:24Then,
02:26October,
02:27this is a new prediction.
02:28This is BPS data.
02:29We will not issue any more data.
02:31We have agreed that no one can issue any more data from the Ministry of Agriculture.
02:35We agree to refer to BPS.
02:38Well, this is in October,
02:40in the prediction,
02:41also 2.5,
02:43this is the highest in 5 years.
02:46Nevertheless, the phenomenon of lanina is also worried that it can have a negative impact.
02:51The reason is, according to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Institute,
02:56lanina in the north and south of Indonesia will have different rainfall,
03:00where the south is projected to have higher rainfall.
03:05And to mitigate the negative impact,
03:07the National Food Board will optimize technical irrigation and pumping to optimize water supply.
03:14Jakarta Tim Liputan, IDX Channel.
03:22To discuss our interesting topic today,
03:24related to September 2024,
03:26where rice production is predicted to reach the highest level in the last 10 years,
03:31we have connected via Zoom with Mr. Sutarto Alimoso,
03:34Chairperson of the Association for the Enforcement of Rice Surroundings and Rice Indonesia Per Padi.
03:39Good morning, Mr. Sutarto.
03:43Good morning, Mr. Prasetyo.
03:45Yes, greetings, sir.
03:47Alhamdulillah, greetings from Palembang.
03:50Okay, thank you for taking the time.
03:52We are also glad to have Prof. Dewi Andrias,
03:55a food saver from PPU.
03:57Good morning, Prof. Dewi Andrias.
03:59Good morning, Mr. Prasetyo.
04:01I'm just like Mr. Sutarto.
04:03You move around the camera, so you know exactly how the rice is produced.
04:07Okay, okay.
04:08This is an interesting topic, right?
04:09Let's review it.
04:10In September, the prediction will be the highest for national rice production.
04:15Mr. Sutarto, we will review it first.
04:17How do you see the current condition?
04:20Is it already according to the target?
04:22How about the production process itself to review national rice production now, Mr. Sutarto?
04:29Yes, if we talk about national production,
04:34of course we have to look at it for the next year.
04:41The second is also last year and the previous years.
04:48Why do we have to look at this?
04:51Of course, this is in line with our preparedness
04:59to provide food, especially rice, nationally
05:04in the next year or next year.
05:09We know that our rice cultivation pattern,
05:14if we talk about 10 years ago or even more,
05:20there are two peaks of rice cultivation.
05:24The peak of rice cultivation occurs in the rainy season,
05:28the peak of rice cultivation will be around February to April.
05:35Then the peak of rice cultivation is usually around July to September.
05:42If we look at the situation in the last few years,
05:48we are actually faced with the problem
05:53that our rice cultivation has started to move only once.
06:01This is what we have been facing for the last three years.
06:06This year, based on the BPS data,
06:11it seems that there is an increase in production
06:18in the month of August to September.
06:23Is this actually the same as 7, 8, or even more than 10 years ago?
06:34This is what we need to look at.
06:36But if we compare it to 2 or almost 3 years ago,
06:45based on the BPS data,
06:48the situation is that our rice cultivation has decreased in the month of August to September.
06:54I think this is what we need to take into account.
06:58Okay, Mr. Sutarto.
06:59It's interesting.
07:00So how do you see this phenomenon?
07:02Is it cyclical?
07:03Or how do you see the peak of rice cultivation in the last three years
07:07to become once a year,
07:09after two years ago, as Mr. Sutarto said?
07:13Do you see any special features like cyclical rice cultivation in Indonesia?
07:20First of all, this is a bombastic phenomenon.
07:25In the month of September, the highest production in the last 10 years.
07:30Okay.
07:31And also, the Minister has given a bombastic statement
07:36which basically stated that he was wrong.
07:40Why did I say it was wrong?
07:42First of all, in the last 10 years,
07:45and we know for sure,
07:47especially in Indonesia,
07:49that our rice production was only true in 2018
07:54after the BPS released the KSA,
07:57Krakas Sempling Area, right?
07:59Before that, our rice production data was false.
08:02Can you imagine?
08:03In 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture released the data,
08:07the BPS released the KSA data,
08:09the difference was only 47%.
08:11So, the data before 2018 was false.
08:15Our rice production data was false, and now it's true.
08:19Before 2018, it was true.
08:21So, how can you say that in the last 10 years,
08:24in the month of September, in 2024,
08:26the highest production was false?
08:28That's the first thing.
08:29Then, the second thing,
08:31the statement was also wrong.
08:33Why?
08:34In 2020,
08:36in the month of September, it was higher than in September,
08:39in 2024.
08:40But the BPS data,
08:42the BPS data in 2020,
08:44in the month of September,
08:46the production was 3.16 million tons.
08:49Our rice production.
08:51While the rice produced by the Ministry,
08:54in the last 10 years,
08:56it was only 4.87 million tons.
08:583.16 to 4.87 million tons.
09:01Okay, okay.
09:02So, how can you say that in the last 10 years,
09:04in the last 10 years,
09:05in the last 10 years,
09:06in the last 10 years,
09:07in the last 10 years,
09:08in the last 10 years,
09:09Okay, interesting,
09:10later, we will discuss further.
09:11Can we still anticipate in this kind of situation?
09:14To increase the production quality and the results.
09:17We will discuss it in the next segment.
09:19And, our guest,
09:20don't forget that you are still with us.
09:22Thank you for joining us in Market Review. We will continue this interesting discussion with Prof. Dwi Andreas and Prof. Sutartle Alimusto from Perpadi.
09:46Prof. Dwi, can you please explain again about the condition, the target, and the phenomenon of lanina?
09:56Thank you, Mr. Raz. I'm sorry for my unclear voice.
10:00So, my question is, why does the Minister of Agriculture like to make bombastic statements and it turns out to be wrong?
10:11Why did I say it's wrong? It is stated that in the last 10 years, in September 2024, our paddy production was the highest in the rice conversion.
10:22That's a big mistake.
10:23Why is it a big mistake? First, our paddy production was poor before 2018, before the BPS issued the sample area.
10:33At that time, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the data, BPS issued the data.
10:37What's the difference? 47% higher than the BPS.
10:43That's the first reason. So, in the last 10 years, before 2018, there was no valid data at that time.
10:50Secondly, based on the BPS data, in 2020, our rice production was 3.16 million tons in September.
11:03Can you imagine? Higher than September, which is still a prognosis, in September 2024, which was 2.87 million tons.
11:12So, where did the data come from?
11:15And it was quoted by big media, including IDX Channel.
11:22So, it's a big mistake.
11:27Secondly, based on the Lanina phenomenon, if we look at the history, at least in the last 20 years,
11:35it has had a positive impact on production growth.
11:39For example, in 2007-2010, production continued to increase,
11:45an average of 5%, from 4.8% in 2007, and 6.6% in 2009.
11:55But, because of continuous planting, production dropped in 2011.
12:03At that time, Lanina was also strong, with a 10.5% decrease in production.
12:08Then, in 2016, Lanina also increased production by 9.7%.
12:15Because of continuous planting, what was the result?
12:19The result was that when the climate was normal in 2017, production dropped again.
12:24What was the percentage of production decrease? 4.95% in 2017, when the climate was normal.
12:31On the other hand, in El Nino, production decreased.
12:36Last year, production decreased by 2.05%.
12:42In 2019, although El Nino was weak, production decreased by 7.7%.
12:48Then, in El Nino, production decreased again last year.
12:53And we can feel the impact in 2024.
12:55Because of the shift in planting season.
12:59That is also the reason why production in August and September increased,
13:04because the planting season shifted.
13:07Usually, the peak of production is around July.
13:10MT2 was in July and August.
13:13But, because of the shift, production increased in September and October.
13:18So, it is very likely that it has nothing to do with plantation or other programs.
13:24Mr. Sitarto, what do you think about this phenomenon?
13:28It seems that it has already happened.
13:30Our national paddy production has started to improve.
13:35What are the factors?
13:37From the perspective of entrepreneurs, what are the opportunities to produce more?
13:42Is it true that the compensation and benefits are given?
13:46Mr. Sitarto, what do you think about this?
13:48As Mr. Andret said,
13:52usually, lanina has a positive impact.
13:57Why?
13:59Because it can be planted.
14:03However, in El Nino, certain areas can be planted.
14:11For example, in Rawa.
14:12Like me, in South Sumatra.
14:17Because of lanina, there are areas that can't be planted.
14:23But, nationally, it will be used better.
14:29Because, especially in other central production areas,
14:33it can be planted three times a year in two years.
14:38It will increase production.
14:43If we look at the current situation,
14:46in the field,
14:48we can see that this year,
14:51at the beginning of the year, we were worse.
14:55Everyone knows that in the first harvest, we were worse.
14:59Compared to last year, we were worse.
15:03But, in the second harvest,
15:08because of the shift,
15:12there is also an increase in the area of planting.
15:17So, the area of harvest will also increase.
15:20As I said, even in August and September,
15:24we still harvest,
15:26and the harvest is higher than the production.
15:30The production is higher, of course,
15:33compared to the needs.
15:35So, there is a surplus.
15:37Last year, there was a minus.
15:39What is the impact of this?
15:41Actually, if we look at it,
15:43the real impact is that
15:46farmers in some production areas
15:51now have a tendency to increase their production
15:57or to plant.
15:58Because last year, there was an increase in GDP.
16:01GDP is very decisive.
16:04So, the policy of GDP is very good
16:09because it increases the price of production.
16:13And in the field,
16:15now there is no less than Rp6,000.
16:18Even between Rp6,500 and Rp7,000.
16:22This pushes the trend of farmers.
16:25Second,
16:27of course, there is an impact
16:30of the increase in the supply of subsidized fertilizer.
16:35Even though it is not fully
16:38running well in the field.
16:40This must be done.
16:42Then,
16:44in some areas,
16:46there is still rain.
16:49And besides that,
16:50even the internal wells
16:53can be run by the community.
16:57This has begun to develop.
16:59So, subsidization and so on
17:02are actually already underway.
17:04If the government adds,
17:06of course, the hope will be
17:08to give positive addition.
17:11So, in terms of the environment,
17:14it also seems to support.
17:17Of course, this momentum
17:21must be maintained in the future.
17:23So that the farmers
17:26must have a good price guarantee.
17:30Don't let the government
17:33because the import is big
17:35and will still be big,
17:37don't want to buy domestic products.
17:40This must be our agreement.
17:43So, what are the efforts to maintain the momentum?
17:47How to plant paddy?
17:49Is the price still stable
17:51and affordable for farmers and consumers?
17:54We will discuss in the next segment.
17:56We will stop for a while.
17:58We will be right back.
17:59We will be right back.
18:17You are still with us in Market Review.
18:20We will continue our discussion
18:22with Mr. Sutarto Walibuso,
18:24Chairperson of Public Wells,
18:26and Professor Dwi Andrias,
18:27University of Indonesia.
18:29Mr. Sutarto, what is the strategy and solution
18:31that you recommend for paddy
18:33to maintain our productivity,
18:35the supply is available,
18:37and the price is still stable in the community.
18:39Please.
18:41So, we know that
18:43to solve this problem,
18:45it must be holistic.
18:47And we have to know
18:49who actually produces rice.
18:52If we talk about food,
18:54especially rice,
18:55it is the small farmers.
18:57The traders are also
18:59the small paddy traders.
19:01This is what we have to pay attention to,
19:04from the beginning to the end.
19:07From the beginning to the end,
19:09we have to pay attention to this.
19:11If we talk about the beginning,
19:13of course,
19:15we have to know that
19:17the biggest producer is
19:19the small farmers.
19:21Small land.
19:23This is what we have to maintain
19:25so that the paddy continues to grow.
19:27One of the things,
19:29of course,
19:31the result must be appreciated
19:33in a reasonable way.
19:35The price should be reasonable.
19:37Secondly,
19:39pay attention
19:41to the availability of seeds.
19:43Currently,
19:45there are many problems
19:47with the availability of seeds.
19:49Because there are online seeds
19:51whose certification is unclear.
19:53Then,
19:55there are seeds
19:57whose certification is unclear.
19:59We also have to pay attention to this.
20:01Another production method,
20:03of course,
20:05is the problem of fertilizer.
20:07This fertilizer must also be available
20:09at the right time.
20:11So, don't always be late.
20:13There is, but it's late.
20:15This will definitely be a problem.
20:17Then,
20:19how about irrigation channels
20:21that have a lot of weeds.
20:23Even in some places,
20:25it's for the industry,
20:27not for agriculture.
20:29Then,
20:31land protection
20:33is very important.
20:35So, don't convert the land
20:37to be productive.
20:39This is very easy.
20:41So, because it leads to conversion,
20:43there are a lot of productive lands.
20:45I have seen
20:47in several areas of central production
20:49that are controlled by certain parties.
20:51In the end,
20:53it is rented at an expensive price.
20:55Okay.
20:57The calculation is a loss.
20:59Then, let's talk about
21:01the management industry.
21:03We have to pay attention
21:05to the small industries
21:07in the villages.
21:09These small industries
21:11should cooperate
21:13with farmers.
21:15Cooperation needs to be done.
21:17Okay.
21:19Now, there are also
21:21very few farmers
21:23who are retired.
21:25The area needs to be expanded.
21:27But,
21:29these small industries
21:31need to increase their income
21:33so that they can
21:35have prosperity.
21:38Now, it's good.
21:40It's always above 100 NTP.
21:43But, we have to pay attention.
21:45Don't forget
21:47to expand the area,
21:49but don't pay attention to this.
21:51So, our productivity
21:53is still low.
21:55There are many fundamental things
21:57that need to be improved.
21:59Just briefly,
22:01what are the recommendations
22:03and solutions that you can offer?
22:05What's clear is that
22:07this year's production
22:09is not good.
22:11Last year, it was 2.05%.
22:13This year, it's 4-5%.
22:15If we look at the condition
22:17from January to October,
22:19if we calculate
22:21the minus consumption
22:23from January to October,
22:25from the total production
22:27consumption from 2.85 million tons
22:29to 1.19 million tons,
22:31the decrease is very big.
22:33So, we are not in a good condition.
22:36Then, the second thing.
22:38The second thing,
22:40I 1007% agree with you.
22:42There is one very important thing
22:44to the welfare of farmers.
22:46You have already mentioned it.
22:48The government should pay attention
22:50to the welfare of farmers.
22:52Why?
22:53If the welfare of farmers
22:55is good,
22:57the production will increase by itself.
22:59And earlier,
23:01Mr. Tanto mentioned the NTP market.
23:03The NTP
23:05in 2023
23:07is average for a year, 107%.
23:09And that's the highest NTP
23:11in my observation
23:13for the last 25-20 years.
23:15So, the farmers are good for farming.
23:17Why? Last year,
23:19the production was much lower
23:21than we expected.
23:23It was only 5%, right?
23:25And it will increase
23:27in 2024, right?
23:29So, the production will increase slowly.
23:31Why? The NTP can be maintained well.
23:33The NTP in June,
23:35the NTP for planting is 106%,
23:37and in July, it is 108%.
23:39And this has made us
23:41grateful to the National Food Board
23:43who dared to increase
23:45the HPP,
23:47the government purchase price
23:49by the block.
23:51So, it has a big impact
23:53on the farmers.
23:55In Banyumas, we reported
23:57that the price of rice
23:59is already 7,200 rupiahs.
24:01Imagine, the price of rice
24:03is much higher than the HPP of 6,000 rupiahs.
24:05So, the farmer's welfare
24:07is the key and the most important.
24:09Yes, that's it.
24:11Some recommendations from
24:13Prof. Toto Ali Musso,
24:15and Prof. Duwe Endres
24:17on how to increase
24:19the farmer's welfare
24:20in our country.
24:22Thank you for your time.
24:24This is Prof. Duwe,
24:26Prof. Toto Ali Musso.
24:28Keep up your activities.
24:34Don't go anywhere.
24:36We will be back
24:38with more interesting topics.
24:50www.subsedit.com