Gold Outlook September: सितंबर में क्या होगा भाव, खरीदें या नहीं? Gold Price Analysis| GoodReturns

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Gold market news : सितंबर के महीने में गोल्ड का भाव क्या रह सकता है? फेस्टिव सीजन में गोल्ड खरीददारी के लिए आपको अभी सोना खरीदना चाहिए या इंतजार करना चाहिए? अगले 5 साल में सोने का क्या आउटलुक है? सोने में निवेश करना अभी कितना सुरक्षित? समझिए Manoj Kumar Jain, Director-Prithvi Finmart से  What is gold and silver trends till Diwali and year end. Gold price predictions 2024 for September month. Is it still safe to invest in Gold. Gold 22 karat, 24 karat prices in India.       #goldrate #gold #goldprice #goldforecast #GoldPrediction   #silverprice #silverrate #Silver #GoldPrediction #24kgold #22kGold #GoldRateNews #GoldPriceNews #GoldRateToday #GoldPriceToday #SilverRateToday #SilverPriceToday #BreakingNews #GoldvsSilver #SilverInvestment #SilverRate #SilverPrediction #SilverOutlook #SilverForecast                  ~HT.178~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~

Transcript

00:00Hi, this is Bhavna and you are watching Good Returns.

00:09It is considered very important to invest in gold in India.

00:13And if we talk about this particular year, then we have seen a lot of ups and downs in gold prices this year.

00:19If we look at the start of gold prices from this year, then on January 1, gold prices started at Rs. 63,302 per 10 grams.

00:28Then in April, gold made its all-time high of Rs. 75,000 per 10 grams.

00:35After this, the budget was presented in July and at that time, the price of gold was Rs. 6,000.

00:42But the price of gold is now returning to its track and is trading at Rs. 73,000.

00:49In the coming months, the festive season is about to begin.

00:55In addition, the wedding season is also about to begin.

00:58So what can be the outlook of gold in such a situation?

01:01Let's try to find out.

01:02In this video, we have Manoj Jain from Prithvi Film Arts with us.

01:06Who will give you a detailed insight on all these topics.

01:09Sir, thank you very much and welcome to Good Returns.

01:13Manoj Ji, first of all, we would like to ask you that the ups and downs in gold prices this year.

01:23If we talk about the start of the year and now because the 8th month is also about to end.

01:27So what are some of the main factors that are trading with the ups and downs of gold prices?

01:33First of all, if we talk about the ups and downs, then we have seen a rise in gold prices since the beginning of the year.

01:40And in the international market, we have seen that gold is also trading around the lifetime highs.

01:45In the beginning of the year, if we talk about the central bank of the world, then there was a continuous rise in interest rates.

01:54But after that, when it was seen that the interest rates were going down from the central bank,

02:00which can be seen in this year.

02:02So gradually we saw an improvement in gold.

02:05Also, the continuous buying of the global central banks has been happening in gold since the beginning of the year.

02:12And the global economic growth has also been seen to be a concern.

02:16Also, geopolitical tensions are also going on here, whether it is the Russian-Ukraine war or the tension we are seeing in the Middle East.

02:24So because of that, the safe haven buying was also seen in gold.

02:29So there are many such factors.

02:31But mainly, the buying of the global central banks and the possibility of a drop in interest rates from the US Fed.

02:38These are the two major reasons why we have seen a good increase in gold here.

02:43Sir, you have mentioned two major reasons.

02:45In addition, you have also mentioned the Russian-Ukraine war.

02:48So how does such wars, global politics, and geopolitical tensions affect the prices of gold?

02:57If you can explain this with a little elaboration.

03:00Whenever there are geopolitical tensions here,

03:04the public generally believes that they prefer to go towards safe haven assets than riskier assets.

03:12Because riskier assets have a lot of volatility and the possibility of loss increases there.

03:18So investors in such conditions, not only in India but all over the world, prefer to go towards safe haven assets.

03:26And gold is considered to be the safest asset in terms of investment.

03:33That is why we see that whenever there is such a situation, the demand for gold increases.

03:39And because of that, there is an increase in prices here.

03:42Sir, if we look at the strength of the dollar and the weakness of the rupee,

03:46how does this factor affect the prices of gold?

03:50Generally, we see that the strength of the dollar pushes the gold downwards.

03:55But we have seen that ever since the US Fed has seen an increase in interest rates,

04:02and there has been a recession in the US for the past two months,

04:06we have seen a continuous decline in the dollar index.

04:10And this week, the dollar index was down at the low level of 13 months.

04:16Although there has been some recovery from the low level,

04:20but the weakness in the dollar has been seen to support the gold in a positive way.

04:26Along with that, we have seen that the decline in the rupee has been seen to increase continuously.

04:31And the rupee is trading around its lifetime lows.

04:34So the decline in the rupee and the weakness of the dollar,

04:37these two factors have been seen to strengthen the gold.

04:41Sir, there were some recent reports in which it was said that gold can replace the dollar in the coming time and can become a new currency.

04:49As we see earlier, gold used to be traded, but after that the dollar took its place.

04:55And now once again the discussion has increased that gold can become a new currency.

05:00Sir, how do you view this?

05:02Gold has been used as a currency from the beginning.

05:06But here we have seen that to smoothen the global trade,

05:11the dollar has been considered a supreme currency.

05:15But since the Covid situation, we have seen that the world is continuously moving towards de-dollarization.

05:23In the year 2002, the global central bank results showed that the share of the dollar was 72%,

05:30which has decreased to 58% in the year 2024.

05:34So we are seeing that in the last 22 years, the dollar has decreased from 72% to 58%.

05:45So the world's central banks are continuously moving towards de-dollarization.

05:51So as the currency reserves of the dollar decrease from the treasury of the global central banks,

05:57the gold reserves will definitely increase.

06:01So due to de-dollarization, the buying of the global central banks will continue.

06:08And because of that, there is a possibility of increasing gold prices in the coming time.

06:14Sir, you said that the prices of gold will increase in the coming time.

06:19If we talk about the particular next month, i.e. September 2024,

06:23then what outlook do you see of gold in this?

06:26What are the ups and downs in September?

06:29What are the factors that will impact gold prices in the month of September?

06:34The biggest factor that will affect gold prices in the month of September

06:38is the policy of the US Fed in the month of September.

06:42And most of the information here is that the US Fed has been cutting interest rates for 7 months.

06:49So we believe that it will be the biggest factor that will affect gold prices next month.

06:55If the US Fed starts cutting interest rates for gold,

06:59then it will definitely be a positive step for gold.

07:04Secondly, the US Fed Chairman has cut so many basis points

07:09because the market is already discounting 25 basis points.

07:13If we see a larger red card there, then we can see a big spike in gold.

07:19But the overall trend will be volatile in the month of September.

07:24The policy meeting of the Fed will be a major factor

07:28that will affect the prices of gold in the month of September.

07:32Sir, the second festive season is also coming.

07:34If we talk about Diwali last year,

07:36then the price of 24 carat gold was Rs. 60,600 per 10 grams.

07:45What can we expect this time?

07:48We usually see a festive season because the demand increases a lot.

07:52Because of this, we can see a hike in prices.

07:55What outlook do you see for Diwali?

07:58We believe that the prices in the international market will reach from Rs. 2650 to Rs. 2680 by November.

08:07Which is trading at about Rs. 2550.

08:10If we talk about the prices of gold in the Indian market,

08:14then we can see prices of up to Rs. 75,000 per 10 grams by Diwali.

08:20So, we can see a rise of Rs. 2,500 to Rs. 3,000 in gold prices by Diwali.

08:27That means we can expect a price of Rs. 76,000 to Rs. 77,000.

08:33Sir, will there be a right time to invest in gold in the near future?

08:37Because people who want to buy gold for their wedding

08:41or for Diwali, should they buy it now?

08:46Or should they wait for the right time?

08:49And what will be the right time?

08:51Those who have a requirement in the near future, should buy at the current level.

08:56Because there is no sign of a big fall in gold from here.

08:59And those who have a long term investment, can make a systematic investment here.

09:04Keep accumulating at every fall.

09:06We believe that gold will not go below Rs. 71,000.

09:11And here we will gradually see a rise in prices.

09:14And the prices of MCX will be seen to rise to Rs. 75,000 by Diwali or by the end of this year.

09:21So, there is a low possibility of a big fall here.

09:23There is a high possibility of a rise above.

09:25So, long term investors can accumulate at every fall.

09:30Those who have a requirement for a wedding in the near future, can buy at the current level.

09:37So, if you want to buy gold for your wedding or Diwali,

09:42then the current level of gold you are getting can be the best time for you to buy gold.

09:48Sir, we are talking about the long term.

09:50So, if you want to prepare a plan for the next 5 years for gold investment,

09:57then what can be the outlook of gold for the next 5 years?

10:00Normally, if we look at the behavior of gold in the last 10 years,

10:04then we have given 10% or more returns in gold year on year.

10:09So, if we look at it from that perspective and this performance continues,

10:13then in the coming time, we believe that gold in the international market

10:18can be seen to grow from $3400 to $3500,

10:20and from the current level, it can grow from $800 to $1000 in the next 4 to 5 years.

10:28So, if we talk about the Indian markets,

10:31then we can see a share of 1 lakh to 1 lakh 10 thousand in the next 4 to 5 years.

10:37So, there is a very good possibility of growth in gold.

10:40Long term investors can continue their investment as SIP.

10:45We believe that in the coming years, gold will give a positive return.

10:49Sir, let's talk about some schemes.

10:52Recently, there was news that the government can stop the scheme of SGB, i.e. Sovereign Gold Bond.

10:57How right do you think this decision is?

11:00And what impact can it have on investors?

11:03If the Indian government takes this step, then we can say that there will be a setback for gold investors.

11:08Because the bonds of the Indian government are not only issued with the guarantee of the Indian government,

11:13but the capital gains were kept by the Indian government tax-free.

11:17And the annual 2.5% interest was also given to the investors.

11:23So, if the Indian government stops this scheme, then we can say that there will be bad news for investors.

11:31But if this scheme is stopped, then we have many other options for investment.

11:36Small investors can invest in exchange-traded funds.

11:42They can accumulate small savings.

11:45They can invest through gold mutual funds.

11:48Or if they want to take physical delivery,

11:51they can open their Demat account on MCX and accumulate their gold positions in small groups.

11:59And when you save up to 10 grams or 100 grams there, you can get it in a physical group.

12:06Sir, what should investors who have invested in SGB do?

12:10We have learned about the alternate options.

12:12But those who have invested in SGB, should they be redeemed?

12:16What advice would you like to give them?

12:18No, they should not be redeemed at all.

12:20It should be held until maturity.

12:22Because if you redeem early, then you will get capital gains tax on whatever gains you have.

12:28So, you should not redeem in that way.

12:30It should be held until maturity.

12:33In the future, there is a possibility of increase in prices.

12:36Secondly, the gains on maturity will be capital gains tax-free.

12:40So, all the investors of SGB should stay in their investment.

12:44Absolutely.

12:45If you are invested in SGB, and because there are news that the government can close it,

12:49then you have to stay invested in it.

12:51Although, you can also invest in the options that Mr. Manoj has told you.

12:58Sir, one more thing is going on.

13:00One Nation, One Gold Rate policy can be implemented very soon.

13:05Because the approval has been received.

13:07What is your take on this?

13:08Will it be beneficial to the gold buyers?

13:10Absolutely.

13:11It will be very beneficial.

13:13Because we see that when we go to different cities,

13:16there is a difference in gold prices.

13:20So, if the policy of One Nation, One Gold Rate comes from the Indian government,

13:25then the gold buyers will definitely benefit from it.

13:30And there will be a lot of transparency in this business.

13:34So, it will definitely welcome the market of this policy.

13:37And everyone will get to see its benefits.

13:40Sir, will it also have an impact on the prices?

13:43Will the prices decrease or increase?

13:46Are you seeing such an impact?

13:48No, according to me, there will be no such thing.

13:50It will be a universal price.

13:52We can say that if there is a mispricing,

13:55then it will look good after this policy.

13:58So, it is possible that there may be a drop in the price.

14:03But it is not likely to be a big drop.

14:06Because according to the gold delivery centers,

14:09mainly Ahmedabad and Bombay,

14:11the rates will continue throughout India.

14:14So, we believe that there will be a lot of transparency after this policy.

14:18Absolutely.

14:19Sir, let's take this question from you.

14:21Which is the best way to invest in gold?

14:26Or do you prefer it?

14:29According to me, there are two things.

14:31If small investors want to invest in gold and accumulate it to make a big fund,

14:38then exchange traded funds are a better option for them.

14:42There are a lot of gold funds listed in the National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange.

14:49So, there you can accumulate small savings and make a big fund.

14:55Secondly, for those who want to buy gold physically,

14:58according to the investment,

15:00the option of MCX Demat account is a better option for them.

15:04In that, you do not have to carry it physically.

15:07And your holding remains in Demat.

15:10Secondly, if you want to deliver it at any time,

15:14then its delivery is easily delivered on the exchange platform.

15:18So, long-term investors who want to invest physically,

15:22can invest through MCX Demat account.

15:25Those who want to accumulate small savings and make a big purpose,

15:29then exchange traded funds are a good option for them.

15:34Absolutely.

15:35If you have long-term, then Demat, MCX Demat for you.

15:38And if you want to prepare a big fund with small money for short term,

15:43then ETF will be best for you.

15:45Sir, thank you so much for connecting with us.

15:47And for sharing such useful information with our viewers.

15:52Thank you, sir.

15:54So, now you have understood from Manoj ji,

15:56what can be the outlook of September?

15:58What can be the prices of gold by the end of 2024 this year?

16:01And along with this, we have understood a long-term outlook from Manoj ji,

16:05that if you want to see for 5 years,

16:07what will be the prices of gold,

16:09then there can be prices of around 1 lakh rupees.

16:12So, if you are getting married in your house,

16:14or you want to invest for Diwali,

16:16then the present time for you can be the best time.

16:19According to the investment, if you want to invest,

16:22if you want to buy gold,

16:23then you can buy it right now.

16:25So that you don't have any problem in the future.

16:28So, for every small update related to gold and silver,

16:31you can stay connected with GoodReturns.

16:33And if you have any questions about gold and silver,

16:35then you can also ask us through the comment section.

16:38Next time when we will meet Manoj ji,

16:40then we will try our best to answer your questions.

16:46So, that's all in the video.

16:47How was the information?

16:48Do tell us by commenting.

16:49If you are watching on Facebook,

16:50then like us on Facebook page.

16:51If you are watching on YouTube,

16:52then don't forget to subscribe to GoodReturns YouTube channel.

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