Seth Payne and Sean Pendergast dive into Mike Sando's piece in The Athletic about schedule difficulty and assess if they've been overestimating how hard the Texans' schedule is this season.
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00:00Are we overrating the difficulty of the Texans 2024 schedule? I think, I think by any measurement,
00:07look, this is a harder schedule than last year. There's no doubt about that. I don't care what
00:10certain styles of rankings say about this schedule versus last year. Like just the quarterbacks alone
00:16make me feel like the Texans are up against it. And just to, I guess, add some context to this
00:22last year, I would say the third best quarterback, the Texans played behind Burrow and Lamar Jackson
00:27might've been Baker Mayfield, might've been Joe Flacco at the end of the year in the regular
00:32season, Joe Flacco might've been Trevor Lawrence. Like they did not play a lot of
00:36good quarterbacks last year. And this year all four quarterbacks who finished ahead of CJ Stroud
00:45for the Pro Bowl in the AFC are on the schedule. Mahomar, Josh Allen, Tua, Jordan Love's on the
00:51schedule. Dak Prescott's on the schedule. Jared Goff's on the schedule. I don't know how you feel
00:57about a rookie Caleb Williams, but he's on there in week two. Like there's a lot of, and I'm missing
01:01some too. I know I'm missing some. There are a lot of good quarterbacks. And yet Mike Sandoe,
01:06the athletic, we went through his tiers of quarterbacks last week. He went through an
01:11exercise set where he took the final scores of all 30 quarterbacks and he applied some,
01:16he didn't have rookies in there. So he just came up with some arbitrary numbers for the rookies.
01:21Caleb's the best and Jaden Williams and so forth. Basically added up the ratings of the 17
01:26quarterbacks at each of the 32 teams face. And if you add up the ratings of the Texans 17 starting
01:34quarterbacks that they face on paper right now, we know some of those are going to change because
01:38of injury and performance. The Texans have the 19th hardest schedule and it's mostly because
01:43the quarterbacks in this division, at least according to GMs around the league currently
01:48are not very good. Trevor Lawrence, other than CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence is mid.
01:52And then Anthony Richardson and Will Levis, there is not a lot of faith early in these guys right
01:57now. I think that's the one where if you look at the top end guys, obviously it catches, you know,
02:04Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rogers, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jordan Love.
02:10Like those are the, those are the top tier quarterbacks that they face.
02:14Then yeah, it's easy to, to get hung up on what a tough schedule it is. I guess my one concern
02:21is that when you start looking at the bottom tier quarterbacks, they face,
02:25you know, Anthony Richardson is in the bottom tier. Will Levis is bottom tier. You're going
02:30to face those guys four times. Those, those two teams have, in the case of the Colts,
02:37they have a, the upside of Anthony Richardson and the fact that Richardson on any given Sunday can
02:43be a real nightmare for you. Like Richardson can be that type of quarterback that maybe it doesn't
02:48work out for him in his career. Maybe three years from now, he actually hasn't been that good.
02:53But as a defensive coordinator, you go into that game thinking, man, this guy can ruin my
02:57whole day on two plays. You know, this guy can unleash a perfectly placed bomb downfield,
03:02or he's going to take off with his legs and it's just going to ruin my Sunday.
03:06In the case of the Titans, I don't, I don't buy into Will Levis at all. I'm kind of surprised
03:11that there's still people that are buying into him. I, I think he's a flaming disaster and yet,
03:17I think, I, I think they've gotten some good coaching around him and there's a chance that
03:23it's a much better team this year. So I don't want to sleep on the Titans just because of
03:28previous issues that they had or even their quarterback. Cause I do think this is a scheme
03:33that kind of like in a Gary Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan fashion can get the most out of
03:39a mediocre quarterback. I've, I've long thought throughout this off season,
03:43the Titans are going to be a bottom five or 16. And I, but I will acknowledge that they,
03:49they made some moves that should improve his receiving. I mean, they signed Calvin Ridley.
03:53He's and, and Tyler Boyd, like those two are an upgrade over what they were trotting out there
03:58alongside Deandre Hopkins last year. So that's a, if healthy, it's an older trio, but it's a good
04:03trio of receivers. It's veteran guys. And with Ridley, there's a level of explosiveness to
04:08that group. I like the running backs, even though they lost Derek Henry. Like I think,
04:13you know, Pollard, Tony Pollard, when used in the right role split with Ty J Spears,
04:18the kid out of Tulane, like that's a, that's a backfield that has a little bit of explosiveness
04:22to it. You know, they, you know, they, and, and they picked up, they've picked up veterans.
04:27I mean, luxurious need is a high level cornerback, but they went and got some, you know,
04:31they got quandary digs and they got Jamal Adams. I, you know, Jamal Adams, isn't the guy that
04:35Seattle traded two first round picks for anymore, but it is some veteran help on the backend.
04:41So they've got some guys I'm more concerned about this version of the Titans than I was
04:46last year's version of the Tennessee Titans. If you look at the top tier guys,
04:51the Mahomes, the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rogers. I think that where it could easily go
04:59one way or the other is with Josh Allen and Aaron Rogers, just then that Aaron Rogers,
05:04we don't know exactly what he's going to look like. If he's going to be able to stay healthy,
05:07whether he had an Achilles tendon tear or not, just given his injury history and his age,
05:13that you'd, you'd have questions about just how good he's going to be this year.
05:17And then with Josh Allen, I mean, Josh Allen's in a situation where kind of like it was with
05:22Pat Mahomes a few years ago, when he lost Tyreek Hill, he's got a lot to prove this year.
05:27You have got to see Josh Allen on a team that doesn't have the same assets or weaponry that Pat
05:34Mahomes that had at the time, just because he's, he's still had Travis Kelsey, Pat Mahomes still
05:39had Travis Kelsey. He had lost somebody that was, you know, Tyreek Hill was a bigger loss than
05:46Stefan Diggs is a loss in terms of the caliber of player at this state of Stefan Diggs career.
05:51But I think the bills are in, the bills had a lot of losses in free agency. They're, they're
05:58really under the gun this year. I like to, I think to a greater degree than most people are talking
06:02about it. They've, they've got a lot of challenges, both offensively and defensively.
06:07The chiefs were, when they traded Tyreek Hill and they made that decision to go, okay, we just can't,
06:12we can't pay Patrick Mahomes. We can't pay Travis Kelsey and pay Tyreek Hill and pay guys on
06:17defense, Chris Jones, guys like that. They were just, they were built on a much more solid
06:22foundation to, to execute that strategy than the bills are right now. To your point, the bills
06:28traded away Stefan Diggs for a draft pick. And by the way, a draft pick that they don't even get to
06:34use until next year, it was a 2025 second round pick. And, and they, they're getting rid of guys
06:42like they're not retaining foundational guys like they Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.
06:47And now Matt Milano's hurt for most of the season with this torn biceps. Like they're just,
06:52Andy Reed is your head coach in Kansas city. Sean McDermott is your coach in Buffalo. Like you,
06:57you just have independent of how you feel about Mahomes versus Allen. They're clearly at least
07:03on offense, executing a similar strategy. I'll tell you who puts a lot of pressure on
07:07aside from Josh Allen and Joe Brady, their offensive coordinator, Dalton Kincaid,
07:11the second year tight end, right? Cause there's a lot that, as you pointed out,
07:14Seth, like the reason they could trade Tyreek Hill was because they could get average wide
07:20receivers and put them out there. Okay. The bills have done that. They've gotten guys that
07:23might not even be average, but they had Travis Kelsey in Kansas city, a hall of fame, tight end
07:29and Kincaid a big part of what they're trying to do this year. That's a lot of pressure on
07:32a second year guy. And by the way, I, you and I haven't talked about this cause you were out
07:38and I don't think they even had like the official clarification didn't come out until maybe on
07:42late Friday or Saturday. Rishi rice for the, for my homes is not going to miss any games at the
07:50beginning of the season. They're going to let the legal process play out. So depending on how long
07:55that goes, I don't know, maybe the legal process will play out at an advantageous time. That's
08:00like right before, right before Christmas time. Merry Christmas. You're going to miss the Texans
08:05game. That would be beautiful. That's really interesting. I had not seen that. So I appreciate
08:11the update. It's really interesting. Cause the NFL, since when does the NFL care about the legal
08:17process? They're there. You know what they, it has been, it's come up in a few things that when
08:23it doesn't involve domestic violence, especially, I think that's, they've tried to be, that's been
08:28more of the policy over the past, but when it involves Rishi rice and his friends, possibly
08:34killing people on a freeway. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, no, that's just interesting to me. Um,
08:41so yeah, so that, that'll be one weapon. Mahomes has early on in the season, at least.
08:47Um, does this make you any less, I don't know how nervous you were about the schedule to begin with,
08:52with the Texans. Does this, does this resonate with you at all that maybe like, Hey, we're,
08:55we're kind of, yeah, they play a lot of top level quarterbacks, but the other quarterbacks,
08:59they play our guys where there's a lot of questions about it. No, I think if anything,
09:03it maybe just, it shows that maybe it's not as simple as, Oh, look at the quarterbacks. Yes.
09:10It's the most important position, but it's the offenses in total, because if you look at this
09:16listing of, Oh, Hey, the Texans, the quarterbacks they face aren't actually all that great.
09:21The mid one of the mid tier guys is to a tongue of Iowa. So again, this goes back to the, any
09:27given Sunday part. I don't, I don't care where two is going to rank historically amongst
09:31quarterbacks. It's a really scary offense is to the driver or the recipient of that.
09:37When it comes to playing them on that specific day, I don't care. It's a really good offense,
09:43no matter how good or how responsible to is for it. I think they, this is my, my biggest concern
09:49with the Texan schedule is yeah, I am. I'm concerned about the quarterbacks, but I think
09:55there is a similar concern, if not a, maybe even a greater concern in these other cities about the
10:01Texans quarterback. You know, it's not like you're going into this schedule and Brock Osweiler's the
10:05quarterback. You're like, well, okay. Osweiler's got it. We, we feel pretty good about the team
10:10we built like they did in 2016, but Osweiler's our quarterback. So we're not, we can't stand
10:14toe to toe with Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rogers and Josh Allen and my homes and on and on and on.
10:20I think these other cities are looking, are going through this exercise if they are and
10:24they're going, okay, well, we got to play Stroud. We got to play Lamar Jackson. Like Stroud gets
10:27mentioned in, in those tiers. My, my biggest thing in looking at how Sandoe lays this out
10:33visually, Seth, in this article, the Texans only play one really bad team this year and it's the
10:39new Patriots. Yeah. Like even Minnesota, I know Darnold stinks, but they've got a lot of talents
10:44on that roster. I know we'll love his stinks, but as we just talked about, they've upgraded
10:48this around him mendously. I think Indianapolis I've said all along is the second best team in
10:53this division Richardson or no Richardson. So there, there, there are five or six or seven
10:59garbage teams in the NFL. I think, I think the Texans play one, maybe two of them all year.
11:04The three of the, in three of the quarterbacks in the world, three of the games played against
11:09lower tier quarterbacks are very much in the unknown category, Caleb Williams, and then twice
11:15with Anthony Richardson. It's that the upside of those guys and the potential of those guys to be
11:20scary or wreck your day is very, very high. We just don't know yet. So I think the uncertainty
11:26about that and the potential for Caleb Williams through the bears did a really good job of
11:30surrounding with lots of veteran wide receiving help. And then Anthony Richardson, again, go back
11:36to the any given Sunday. That's that's the perception. I don't think it's an unwarranted
11:41concern or fear. If, if you're looking at the names on the schedule, we, we talked about that
11:46article earlier in the athletic on the show today, where they took the 10 teams that according to the
11:52computer model that Austin mock of the athletic uses the 10 teams with the best chance to win a
11:57super bowl, why they will and why they won't. The Texans were not among those 10 teams. I can't
12:02imagine they weren't any further down that they were further down than 11th or 12th, but it was
12:06a computer model that simulated the season a bunch of times. And the top 10 teams included teams like
12:12the jets and the bills that I think the Texans are better than if the Texans found their way
12:16onto that article, Seth, and it was the why they will and why they won't win a super bowl. What do
12:21you think if the Texans don't win a super bowl, what do you think the biggest reason will be?
12:25Uh, the big, the biggest reason in the most likely right now would be just that they don't develop a
12:31solid rushing attack, especially when it comes to playoffs. There's times where you just flat out
12:35have to run the ball. And if you can't run the ball, when you have to run the ball versus really
12:39good defenses, then, then this offense is going to be as potent as the passing game suggests it
12:45could be. So right now that's my biggest concern. And, um, and by the way, since it is good to point
12:52out, a lot of the computer models do have the Texans as like around the 14th or 15th favorite
13:00to win the super bowl. And like that sometimes, you know, the, the lines are tweaked by human
13:05perception and what gamblers feel. And the Texans have had a glow up all off season long.
13:11The computers can be a, a much more objective look at just exactly. Okay. What is unproven
13:18about this team and what have you, there's still a lot of projection going on with them.
13:22Uh, I tend to look, I drink the Kool-Aid. I, a lot of this is a vote, a vote really for D'Amico
13:29Ryan's and CJ Stroud and them being what I think they are. And then also improving over what they
13:36were last year. I think that's the one as much as people have praised CJ Stroud. And for the most
13:41part, people kind of like most analysts are discounting a sophomore slump or something,
13:47but I think that they also at the same time, haven't really accounted for the fact that
13:52CJ Stroud is going to likely improve as a quarterback with or without Stefan Diggs.
13:58I think that he's going to be a better quarterback for the duration of the season. He was
14:02looking at the entirety of last season. This, this is not a reason why the Texans will win a Super
14:06Bowl, but this is in my region, why they are so high up on the odds board for winning a Super
14:13Bowl and why people are so bullish on over nine and a half wins. CJ Stroud is one of the most
14:18popular players in the NFL right now. Yeah. Point blank. I mean, like the, the, the, the average Joe
14:23better looks at quarterback first and foremost, when they're doing these things, I saw an article
14:29this weekend that said that talking about trading cards, you know, and like CJ Stroud, this is a
14:35super nerdy thing, but like of all the graded trading cards out there among NFL players,
14:40CJ Stroud is light years ahead of everybody else right now. Like we've got like 145,000 graded
14:46trading cards out there, which is more, if you were to put a fantasy team together of the highest
14:50graded ones at each position, like two running backs, three receivers, a tight end and a defense
14:55and a kicker CJ has more than the rest of those players combined. Like he's that popular out
15:01there right now. He's, he's an incredibly popular young player out there right now.
15:06You know? So it's fun to have man. Really fun to have.