AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Joe Lundberg look ahead to next week where a homegrown tropical system could put the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions at risk while the Gulf recovers from Francine.
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00:00We saw the possibility you and I last week at that time that there could be
00:04something in the Gulf of Mexico. I was skeptical based on how the hurricane
00:08season has gone thus far. It just didn't seem like the Southwest Gulf was the
00:13best place for development, but it turns out that was the ideal incubator, if you
00:17will, for Francine and indeed developed into a tropical storm than a
00:22category two hurricane before making landfall last night. Tropics still the
00:26number one topic for concern for next week, and it's going to be a homegrown
00:30system off the southeast coast of the United States. Could be quite a bit of
00:34rain with that. Cooler with some showers for the West and particularly the
00:37Northwest after all the heat you've had to deal with, and it's going to be mainly
00:40dry for the Gulf Coast states, particularly for the lower Mississippi
00:43Valley. In the short term, that's good news after the rains that you've seen
00:46associated with Francine. You know, Joe, you had mentioned the term homegrown
00:50development. That's close development to the, when you get development close to
00:55the United States, we typically see that during the months of June and July, and
01:01then in September you have the long track hurricanes and tropical storms
01:07that we typically are monitoring, but this hurricane season has been
01:12flipped. The long tracks were early in the season. Yeah, you look at some of
01:16these tracks, you know, and obviously Francine is the one that the most recent
01:19one, and there it is going like that, so it was a short-term homegrown type of
01:22system, but you see Ernesto out here, and particularly this one, Barrel, which
01:28is a long track system that worked its way into the Western Gulf earlier in the
01:31season. That's something you would see in late August and September. We're not
01:36seeing those right now and going into next week. Again, the concern is you're
01:40gonna have some development in this particular area. That's homegrown. That's
01:43not a long track system from way out on the Atlantic. Yeah, and that development
01:47next week, Joe, underneath that high pressure system that pushes the jet
01:52stream up across the southern reaches of Canada tomorrow. It's another
01:56amplified pattern, Bernie. You can see a big dip in the jet stream of the West.
02:00You're gonna see a lot cooler conditions from Seattle down to Los Angeles and Las
02:04Vegas. You'll definitely see some showers in these areas, but you might even see
02:08them down into places like Las Vegas, but that bridge expands up across the Plain
02:14States into the Great Lakes and Northeast, and it looks like that that is
02:17really going to allow for this moisture to congeal here off the southeast coast
02:21and work its way northwestward. So the area of concern is going to be the
02:25Carolinas to the spine of the Appalachians and portions of Virginia. I
02:29think most of it stays away from doing that, regardless of its form of
02:32development.