AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva joined Bernie Rayno on the AccuWeather Network on June 14 to discuss what's next in the hurricane season.
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00:00Joining me right now AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva and you
00:04know Alex before we get into the specifics one thing that's just kind of
00:09eye-popping here as I call this up is the water temperature anomalies not the
00:14actual water temperatures but the actual water temperature anomalies. Water
00:19temperatures now compared to the historical average for the last 30 years
00:23and it's really eye-popping how warm these waters are. It's very impressive
00:28out there right now Bernie taking a look at the water temperatures it's
00:31basically bathtub water across most of the Atlantic Basin and it's just going
00:35to continue to get warmer and warmer. Last year was the warmest season on
00:39record in terms of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin and
00:42right now we are outpacing 2023. The one thing I noticed Alex is that a couple of
00:48weeks ago we had a ribbon of colder water along the southeast coast of the
00:52United States it looks as though that's actually kind of turned around in the
00:56last few weeks. Yeah sometimes if the winds really pick up we sometimes get
01:00like an onshore wind yeah and actually mix up the water a little bit and can
01:03actually bring cooler waters up to the surface we call that upwelling. Usually
01:07doesn't last too long and as you saw in the last graphic there it looks like
01:10those waters have rebounded very very quickly and are back to their bathtub
01:14levels. Well I mentioned that because let's take you into the southeastern
01:18off the southeast coast of the United States this is that upper low that moved
01:23across the southeast now it's over the warmer waters but this is running out of
01:27time to develop isn't it? It is it's over the Gulf Stream so it's got plenty of
01:31warm water to work with unfortunately for the system it's dealing with a lot
01:35of wind shear southwest to northeast wind shear so this thing's probably just
01:39going to get pulled apart as it continues to move to the north and east
01:41I'm not too concerned about development even if it does develop it looks like
01:45it's going to be heading out into the Atlantic away from the US. Let's head
01:49down toward the Central America and and and Mexico where we've seen a growing
01:55area of showers and thunderstorms nothing organized but it's a pretty
02:00large area of showers and thunderstorms Alex. Yeah this time of year you get
02:04what we call the gyre Central American gyre to develop across the Central
02:08American countries it's a giant area of spin and you can see that there by the
02:12cluster of thunderstorms there so sometimes what we get is an area to
02:16break off from that gyre and move to the north into the Western Caribbean or
02:20Gulf of Mexico and that's exactly what we're going to see here over the
02:23Father's Day weekend and into early next week we're going to see a cluster of
02:26thunderstorms break out into the Bay of Campeche and it looks like it has a
02:30really good shot of development here low wind shear you can take a look at the
02:34graphic right here plenty of purple to the north of the Gulf of Mexico in the
02:38northern part but in that southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche
02:42there low wind shear can't allow this thing to develop. Yeah we kind of went
02:47and we upgraded this yesterday Alex to a high threat for development this is
02:51going to likely unless something happens it off the southeast coast of United
02:56States this is going to be our next storm or our first storm correct? Yeah it
03:00looks that way it's nice and warm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and actually
03:04as a matter of fact that area look at how it's shaped like a bowl that
03:08southwestern Gulf of Mexico that can actually help to induce spin the shape
03:12of the coastline there so we actually see a lot of development in that area
03:16and the shape of the coastline there that kind of roundness to it can
03:20actually help to induce spin interestingly enough. All right Acua the
03:24lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva thank you again for joining us lots lots
03:29to look for over the next week to ten days.