• 3 months ago
Why are consumers still reluctant to buy EVs despite government push?
Nupur Talwar Suri brings you expert voices on 'The Big Story.'
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00:00scheme which will replace the popular Fame 2 scheme. Now this project at an outlay of close
00:05to 11,000 crore rupees over two years will incentivize electric vehicles. Electric and
00:11hybrid cars are excluded from this scheme since they are already covered under various other
00:17subsidies. But an increasing number of electric vehicle users appear to be dissatisfied with the
00:23experience. Many in fact are going back to the faithful old petrol and diesel engines.
00:28Survey firm Local Circles has published a survey on EVs as well. Now in this they found that people
00:34are not as keen on electric vehicles despite the government's obvious push. So the three big
00:41questions that we are asking this evening are. Do buyers prefer EVs over petrol and diesel vehicles?
00:49Are lack of charging infrastructure and prices the pain points for adoption to EVs?
00:56And is India prepared for electric vehicles?
01:00It's now to discuss this and more. We are now joined
01:05by Hormaz Sarabji. He's the editor of Autocar India. We've got Sachin Taparia. He's the founder
01:10of Local Circles. Vijay Kumar Shanmugam. He's an IT professional and someone who's had a bad
01:15experience with an EV. Gaurav Vangal, principal analyst from S&P Global also joining us on the
01:22broadcast. Good evening, gentlemen. Sachin, good to have you back on the show. And first to you,
01:27about 5% of the existing prospective car owners have in your last survey said that they are likely
01:35to buy an electric car over the next year. Now take us through the findings of your survey and
01:42what it essentially indicates. So what we find, Nupur, is we were expecting that
01:54a fairly decent percentage of people would be willing to buy electric cars in 2024.
02:03But the number came out to be 5%. And this is a survey over 300 odd districts,
02:0940,000 responses, where 5% of the respondents said that they were looking to buy. And these
02:16are all people who are looking to buy a vehicle this year. So only 5% of them said that they
02:21were looking at an EV. And within that 5%, 55% of them said that the ones who are looking at
02:29buying an EV, they said that they are looking in the 8 to 10 lakh bracket. Secondly, the thing that
02:38we asked was why the response is not so encouraging. So what are some of the reasons
02:44that people are not looking at buying EVs? And there's really three key issues that came out.
02:52One was the vehicles being expensive as compared to the petrol and diesel vehicles.
03:01Second reason that people highlighted in the survey was the lack of charging infrastructure
03:06in their city where they reside. And this is not a Delhi-Mumbai survey, 300 districts,
03:10so you can imagine. And the third issue was, which was highlighted, was that for a lot of
03:17households, especially if you go to tier 3, tier 4, tier 5 cities, they don't drive their vehicle
03:25every day. So for many of these households, vehicle usage or a car usage is limited to just
03:31weekends, while during the week, they're using a scooter or whatever to go to their place of
03:37employment or their business, whatever. So therefore, and that too in smaller cities,
03:44you're driving for 5, 7, 10, 15 kilometers. So it really didn't matter. It didn't make
03:49economic sense to go through that whole process of buying an EV. So those are some of the reasons
03:55that were highlighted in terms of why people are not so keen on buying electric vehicles.
04:02And then we also asked people, the ones who were actually looking at buying,
04:07why they were looking at buying an electric vehicle. And there really it was two primary
04:12reasons. One was the overall lower total cost of ownership. People who wanted to,
04:19they didn't want to worry about the fuel price fluctuations. And then there is a sizable
04:26population amongst the ones who are looking at buying, who care about the environment,
04:31who want to be seen differently within their social circles as a more responsible citizen,
04:37perhaps. So those were some of the reasons to buy and not to buy. But overall, a muted response,
04:44because last year, about 91,000 electric cars got sold in India. And our expectation is that
04:52this year is going to be similar or lower. So essentially, Sachin, I could sum it up by
04:59saying that the excitement around the EV seems to be going down quite a bit. Hormaaz, good to
05:05see you again. Now, you haven't been bullish about EVs at all. And despite the push by the government,
05:11not only has adoption been slow, but consumers still seem to be very reluctant to move over.
05:18You have studied this quite a bit. What are the top reasons, according to you?
05:23See, I think, to be honest, I think I have to state away, I think long term,
05:29we have to go the EV way, especially if we are to meet all our, let's say, net zero,
05:35heading towards net zero carbon levels. So I think clearly, you know, that journey has started.
05:40I think what we are seeing is a classic example is that we've fallen in between this big gap
05:48from the early adopters, you know, who are willing to buy an EV irrespective of the price,
05:54they were willing to take the pain of home charging, because they really were EV evangelists
05:58to the early majority, which clearly are now weighing up EVs against a normalized car,
06:03and there will be obviously the obvious questions, the price, the charging infrastructure,
06:07a lot of skepticism around it, you know, and there are a lot of other unanswered questions,
06:12like what will the resale value be? What is the life of the battery? These two questions are still
06:17not answered yet, because EVs haven't been around long enough to answer these questions. Only after,
06:21you know, we go through a couple of life cycles that some answers will emerge, especially on the
06:26battery life. Now, people think that the battery life is only about eight years. That's typically
06:30the warranty of a battery, it could be that the battery lasts much longer, and you know,
06:34it will degrade, how much will it degrade? Again, resale value, all these things make a difference,
06:39because at the end of the day, for a person, a regular person buying a car, it's an investment,
06:44a car is an investment. But having said that, I think, you know, as a city phenomenon,
06:49I am completely sold on EVs. There's, you know, nothing better as a city vehicle. Things like,
06:57you know, range and all don't make that much of a difference. But again, coming to charging
07:01infra, I think the home charging is really the basic, you know, make or break for a lot of EV
07:06buyers, because forget about the public charging, a lot of them have never been to a public charger,
07:11they're happy at home charging. But people need that home charging. And again, taking a little
07:16bit of a statistic from what Tata had told us that over 90-95% of their Nexon buyers all had
07:22home charging, which goes to suggest so many didn't buy a car because an EV because they didn't
07:27have home charging. So yes, these are definitely issues. I think it will be flat. But I think,
07:32you know, honestly, I think there's a temporary hiccup. Once we get more models coming in,
07:38more exciting models, I think that will again stimulate EV demand, because clearly, right now,
07:44we don't have a wide choice of EVs, especially in the mass market, we just have the Tata range,
07:50that's about it. Now, MG has come and disrupted the market, you know, with the cloud, crazy
07:57pricing and a battery on rental that really is set the cat amongst the pigeons. So I think,
08:02you know, going forward, the question of, you know, let's say price parity coming,
08:06whether naturally or being forced on by the manufacturers to stimulate demand and a wider
08:11choice. I think we'll see the EV demand picking up. But I agree, I think this year is going to be
08:18pretty flat. I think next year, after mid 2025, with more EVs coming in, we'll see an uptake again.
08:24All right. Let's also bring in Vijay Kumar Shanmugam. He's someone who's not had a great
08:29experience with an EV. And, you know, he's even resolved never to buy one as a primary vehicle.
08:35So Vijay, tell us more about your not so good experience.
08:40So this just happened yesterday. So I live in Coimbatore right now, and we had to travel to
08:46Cochin. It was a Tata Nexon. And to be frank with you, I was completely sold on EVs till yesterday.
08:54And, you know, the charging infrastructure that I thought existed and everything, I had resolved to
09:01buy an EV in the next month or two. So now what happens is Cochin is roughly 200 kilometers from
09:06where I live. And the Nexon EV range is roughly around that, like, you know, back and forth.
09:14So when we started, the vehicle had a 93% charge. We go to Cochin, we finish our work there.
09:20It's me and my partner. It's my partner's vehicle. And the vehicle was down to roughly
09:27around 40 something. So we found a charger in a Tata service center. And we started charging.
09:35And for some reason, the charge wouldn't happen. It bent up to 61%, but then it kept getting
09:41disconnected. So in big car traffic, we end up coming to Angamaly, which is a town on the
09:50Cochin-Coimbatore highway. And we found another charger at a Tata service center there.
09:59And it said that it had charged up to 78% or something like that. And we thought, okay,
10:07from here, it's like another 150 kilometers, so we can easily make it. We leave Angamaly and then
10:13we come to Coimbatore. When we reach the bypass, it says around 20% left. We were not sure what
10:19was going on because it seemed to have drained a lot. And from that point onwards, it was another
10:2612 kilometers. And my partner and I, we were like, okay, we are going to reach comfortably.
10:32And as we near our home, we get off the highway. What happens is that the vehicle just
10:42suddenly stops. It bent from 20 to 12 to 8 and 5. And all of a sudden, now the vehicle won't move.
10:50And luckily, it was just us men in the car. And Coimbatore has a pretty good taxi system. So
10:57we got a taxi, parked the car by the roadside and came home. Then this morning, what we've
11:04been told is that the second time we charged, the charge didn't take properly. So I was thinking of
11:14buying this car, not as a primary car. So essentially, you've not had a great experience.
11:21And these are very real issues that EV vehicles face. Gaurav, just to bring you into this now,
11:27I know there are a lot of companies that are actually going into EV manufacturing. But I'm
11:32going to give you one example, Volvo. Now, Volvo had proposed one of the most aggressive shifts
11:37to full-time battery fleet by 2030. But now they've announced new plans saying that while
11:42they would reduce conventional vehicles to less than about 10% of this mix, the remaining 90%
11:49will be a mix of the electric vehicles and the plug-in hybrid model. So clearly, even car makers
11:56are recognizing these issues. So I've heard this story, and this is not the first time we're
12:02hearing such kind of stories from the consumers in the market. I would say that EVs are good. And
12:08as Swarmas mentioned, that in the long term, we have to move to the EVs. But in the midterm,
12:14and when we look at the Indian scenario, when we talk about the infrastructure, the charging
12:20infrastructure, the range anxiety, or the value consciousness of the Indian consumer, I think
12:25hybrid makes more sense in the midterm. While in the short term, we are already recognizing that
12:33the market is moving towards CNG. CNG is available from the last two decades in the Indian market. But
12:40recently, you must have seen that CNG vehicle demand has been increased very rapidly.
12:49If I have to quote some numbers, I think today we are sitting with 17% of penetration in the
12:53CNG in the light vehicles, which is going to be approximately 23%. While in EVs, as
13:01Swarmas just mentioned, there are a lot of action expected in the next couple of years in EVs. So
13:05there will be pickup in the EVs also. EVs are also going to increase from 2% to 18% to 20%
13:11in the production side. But yes, there is some exports also here. And when we talk about hybrids,
13:17I think range extenders and the hybrids are the key technology which can play a significant role
13:26in mid to long term in the Indian market. So this is not only about Volvo. I think multiple
13:31car makers globally have recognized this, that EVs, they are delivering the EVs, they are delivering
13:39the skateboard platforms, and they are extending the multi-energy platforms or the current ICE
13:46platforms over the next decade now. Absolutely. Harmas, coming back to you,
13:54we've had someone who's talked about his experience. And EVs essentially are just
13:58giant computers on wheels, and they do encounter a lot of bugs. And these bug fixes are not just
14:04expensive, but finding a qualified technician can be hard. And range anxiety is a real issue,
14:11as we heard. No, absolutely right. I think EVs today have got a lot of glitches. And
14:18unfortunately, Tata Motors, having sold so much at scale, they've earned a reputation for having
14:24cars that are unreliable. They keep breaking down. We've seen a lot of angst on social media.
14:31So clearly, Tata have got a problem on their hands as far as, let's say, reliability goes.
14:37But I think this is a painful learning curve for everyone, actually, not only Tata, even
14:42other manufacturers, because there's a lot of software now in vehicles. And don't forget,
14:49basically, it's car makers becoming software experts. That's a very difficult transition
14:55to make. I foresee that these issues are going to crop up for the next couple of years.
15:00And finally, the solution is what we call a software-defined vehicle, where there's one
15:06central software or processing unit, which then takes care of all the functions. What is happening
15:11right now is you've got multiple functions, whether it's the ADAS, whether it's a BMS,
15:16everything trying to talk to each other. And that creates a lot of issues.
15:20So I'll give you one example. Even in a Tata car, on the expressway, if you're going down and you
15:26pass a set of cameras, there's some frequency mismatch and your screen goes off. So you have
15:32all these small issues which crop up. I think it's part of a learning process. But yes,
15:37completely, I agree. And I can imagine the angst someone feels when your vehicle is unreliable.
15:43You don't expect that from an EV. But the truth is EVs have a lot of glitches these days,
15:47and it's going to take some time for them to be ironed out.
15:50Right. I know, Hormoz, you're short on time. One quick question. We've had Elon Musk come out
15:55and say that there appears to be a shift in consumer preference from 100% electric to
16:00hybrid vehicles. And we are also seeing car makers like Volvo potentially shift
16:06their focus to that. Do you think that that in the short term might be the future?
16:12Well, at the end of the day, I think in this whole EV transition, no one's really spoken to
16:18the consumers. Governments have decided, manufacturers have decided that we all have
16:22to go EV, not asking the consumers what they really want. And here, finally, now you've got
16:27the consumer pushing back. Because frankly, if you don't have the charging infrastructure,
16:32EVs are not going to fly. And I think, frankly, for me, home charging is the most important thing
16:37right now. And then let's say highway charging and fast charging comes a bit later. But if you
16:42don't have that basic, it's going to be very, very difficult. And honestly, in India, that's
16:46going to take some time. Gaur was talking about CNG penetration. But still, after 20, 25 years,
16:51we don't even have a proper CNG network that is as easy or as seamless as, let's say,
16:57filling petrol or diesel. Now, if you don't have that, building an EV infrastructure is going to
17:02take a lot more time. So I think the solution is hybrids. But we mustn't forget the goal,
17:09which is that we have to move towards full electrification. Because honestly, for the
17:15future, for our children, each summer is getting hotter and hotter. We've got to get that carbon
17:19out of the air. CO2 is public enemy number one, and EVs best address that.
17:24Absolutely. Harmasa, thank you very much. I know you're running out of time for joining us. I'm
17:28going to go back to Sachin on this one. Now, Sachin, you know, bits of your survey seems to
17:33suggest that people find EVs extremely expensive. Now, the government's new scheme essentially is
17:40not aimed at car owners. So do you see perhaps, you know, more of a dip coming in sales as far
17:46as EVs are concerned? You know, it very well could, Nupur, unless the manufacturers actually
17:53reduce, you know, prices or give rebates and discounts. It very well could be the case. You
17:59know, I want to also illustrate, Nupur, on the fact, on some of the challenges. So, you know,
18:05the gentleman who, you know, drove from Coimbatore to Kochi, you know, one thing that we are also
18:13picking up in terms of, you know, community feedback is people who have long distance travel,
18:20you know, they tend not to opt for EVs. It is more for, you know, city driving, right? So in many
18:27cases, it is actually the second car of a lot of people who are EV owners. It's not their primary
18:33car. So they have a primary vehicle, which could be a sedan or an SUV, and then you have an EV,
18:39you know, for your intercity runs, whether you live in Delhi or Mumbai. And one of the issues
18:46that Harmaz touched on was home charging. So with home charging, there are a lot of issues that
18:52people have been reporting. One is in some cases, when it's a house and not, you know, living in a
18:58society, you need to upgrade your power connection for some of the EV owners. And that's a process
19:06that is full of hassles and, you know, to the extent of corruption in terms of upgrading your
19:11power connection. That's one complaint that we've been hearing from people. The second one is,
19:16in many cases, it is the RWA or the society apartment association, basically, that has to
19:22give permission for building a charging station. And that doesn't go, you know, that smooth in many
19:28cases. So I think all of these issues play into what is causing some of the resistance amongst
19:37people, along with the price factor, you know, which is, of course, on the higher side.
19:41Oh, yes, absolutely. Vijay, if I could come back to you, you had a bad experience. Now,
19:48obviously, when you are stranded in the middle of a journey, as your electric vehicle refuses
19:52to charge, you can't just, you know, call a roadside mechanic to tinker with it and to get
19:57it moving. It requires a highly specialized set of technicians. And that probably is one,
20:02also one of the issues that, you know, people who own EVs must be facing.
20:09I agree 100%. See, here's the thing. The vehicle that I was planning to buy was primarily for my
20:15mother and my wife. They are the ones who travel more than us and the family because they go to
20:20marriages and all of those things. I just can't imagine, like, you know, now trusting a vehicle
20:27like that for the women in the family. Like, you know, what happens if they are stranded on the
20:32highway and they have to wait? And, you know, the kind of stress that's associated with that,
20:37I don't want to go through that. Now, I still do think an EV is a really good choice if it is just
20:43moving within the city that I am in. Because like someone pointed out, like if I can charge
20:49overnight and then use it during the day, I think still there are really good positives,
20:54you know, that can be taken out of this experience. But I don't think as a primary vehicle,
21:01it's still there. The charging infrastructure in this particular highway is actually pretty
21:06decent. You do find a lot of places that have chargers. But discoverability is a problem again.
21:13We don't know where the chargers are. Every company has its own website and stuff.
21:17So, all of those things until they are sorted out, I don't think, you know, I would use it as
21:25my primary vehicle. In fact, my partner and I, we decided that we were not going to use the EV for
21:30these long trips anymore. But that doesn't mean he's going to sell it or I'm against EVs. It's
21:36just that my idea of where to use it has changed. And the practical problems associated with it
21:42have become more clear to you. So, Gaurav, now, obviously, one of the key issues that everybody's
21:48been talking about for EVs is still the infrastructure. Now, just let's leave the
21:55Mumbai and Delhi or Chennai aside, you know, Bangalore aside. But the pace in which, you know,
21:59tier two and tier three cities where we are seeing the installation of infrastructure is still slow.
22:06And not just slow, you know, the cost of the infrastructure is also something that can be a
22:12discouraging factor. I can't agree more with you on this. So, this is a problem of infrastructure.
22:20It's not only at the rural city. I think at the tier one, tier two cities, we are facing the
22:25problem. The only point which Hormoz and I think another panelist was mentioning that people are
22:33going for a home infrastructure. What if you don't have the dedicated parking? In Delhi and
22:39in Mumbai, we have seen people do not have the dedicated parking. So, when you don't have the
22:44dedicated parking, how are you going to install the chargers? So, we believe that it is going to
22:50be very tough, not even at the rural side, even at the tier one and tier two cities. It will be
22:55very tough for getting penetration in the EV market. That's why I think there are other
23:02alternative fuels which are available or which are going to be available in the Indian market
23:06makes more sense for the India. Also, the other thing Gaurav is, you know, consumer surveys in
23:11the US have suggested that battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles seem to perform
23:16worse than their gas equivalents, their petrol and diesel equivalents in about every repair
23:22category measured. So, do you think that's also something that is discouraging people? Because
23:28those are countries, you know, the West had a faster adoption of EVs and now they seem to be
23:32going back. So, it's not only about India that we are facing this kind of discouraging factors.
23:42I think globally, people are realizing, companies are realizing that the EV adoption rates cannot
23:49go very rapidly in other markets. So, as per our understanding, we are facing multiple issues like
23:56legislation is one of the issues. Political landscape is one of the issues for the EV
24:02adoption. Residual prices is one of the issues which I think Hormaz has mentioned that how you
24:09are going to, what value you are going to get for the second-hand EV. So, there are issues and it's
24:15not only for India. We are value conscious, we are cost conscious, but it's not only applicable
24:20on India. I think globally, consumers are thinking in that way. All right, Sachin, any final thoughts
24:26on this? Obviously, everybody would like to have a greener world and EV perhaps is one of the ways
24:33to it, but the interim challenges do seem to be quite a bit. No, absolutely, Nupur. And I think,
24:39you know, the only other point I'd like to cover is, which I think we touched on a little bit,
24:43is the repair, you know, which Vijay faced essentially or assistance, technical assistance
24:52on the road. You know, this is an area where if let's say it is a Tata vehicle, then your only
24:59option is to go to Tata for repair. And, you know, as it is after sales service in our country and in
25:07many other countries, you know, that is the big profitability channel for many of the manufacturers
25:14and hence it is not affordable. So, while petrol and diesel vehicles, you can get them repaired at
25:20an affordable price with any mechanic, right, you don't have that benefit with EVs. So, that's
25:26something that the manufacturers have got to think as well, that not only, you know, do they provide
25:31discounts and subsidies to sell more EVs, but then also make that service and the technician call
25:37affordable as well. All right. Sachin, Vijay, Kumar as well as Gaurav, all three of you, thank
25:44you very much for joining us on the broadcast. So, the consensus that appears to be emerging
25:49at this point, of course, is that EV may be the way forward, but perhaps there is a little
25:56more focus on hybrids right now because of the challenges that adoption to EV faces.
26:02Thank you very much for watching The Big Story.
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