Kamala Harris DOMINATES Swing States in Latest Polling Averages
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00:00To delve into the ongoing 2024 presidential election and analyze recent polling data,
00:06we begin by examining the states expected to remain securely Democratic or Republican.
00:11On the Democratic side, states like Hawaii, California, Oregon, and Washington, along
00:17with New Mexico, Colorado, Illinois, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, Vermont, Massachusetts,
00:24Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Maine's 1st Congressional
00:31District, and Washington, D.C. are anticipated to stay in the Democratic column.
00:36These states are known for their consistent voting patterns, favoring the Democratic Party
00:41in recent election cycles.
00:43On the Republican side, the traditionally conservative states include Alaska, Idaho,
00:48Utah, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
00:54At large, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama,
01:03Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, South Carolina, Florida, West Virginia, and Maine's
01:112nd Congressional District are likely to remain solidly Republican.
01:15These states have historically supported Republican candidates and continue to show
01:19strong alignment with the GOP.
01:22Turning our focus to key battleground states, the 2024 election is showing intriguing shifts.
01:28In Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a narrow lead over former
01:33President Donald Trump by one point.
01:36This mirrors the 2020 election result, where President Joe Biden won the state by a similar
01:41margin.
01:42While Harris's support remains steady, it is likely that she will carry Pennsylvania
01:46once again in 2024.
01:49In New Hampshire, Harris has a stronger lead, polling 6.6 points ahead of Trump.
01:54Given that Biden won New Hampshire by 7 points in 2020, the state's political dynamics
02:00appear to be consistent and Harris can be expected to retain New Hampshire in the Democratic
02:05column.
02:06Michigan, another critical swing state, sees Harris leading by nearly 2 points, with her
02:11highest lead recorded at 3.5 points.
02:15Biden won Michigan by 2.8 points in 2020, suggesting that Harris is in a strong position
02:20to hold onto the state, barring significant shifts in the electorate.
02:25Wisconsin is another pivotal state where Harris holds a nearly 3-point lead.
02:30Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by a much smaller margin, just half a percentage point.
02:35So Harris's more substantial lead indicates that Democrats could potentially perform better
02:40here in 2024, solidifying Wisconsin as a key win for the Harris campaign.
02:45Moving to Minnesota, Harris's lead of 7.1 points mirrors Biden's exact margin of victory
02:52in 2020.
02:53This consistency in polling suggests that Minnesota is likely to remain a safe state
02:57for Democrats in the upcoming election, with Harris well-positioned for a comfortable win.
03:03In Nevada, the situation is tighter, with Harris leading by just 0.3 points.
03:09Biden won Nevada in 2020 by 2.4 points, so while the margin has narrowed, historical
03:14precedence suggests that Harris may still carry Nevada, albeit by a narrower margin.
03:20Arizona is proving to be more challenging for Harris, with Trump leading by half a point.
03:25Biden won Arizona in 2020 by a very slim margin of 0.3 points, making Arizona a critical toss-up
03:33for 2024.
03:35Given the state's recent trend toward the Democratic Party, there is still potential
03:38for Harris to flip the state back in her favor.
03:41Georgia presents a similar scenario, with Trump currently leading by half a point.
03:47Biden narrowly won Georgia in 2020 by about 12,000 votes.
03:52Although Trump has a slight lead in the polls, Georgia's recent shift toward the Democratic
03:56Party makes it a competitive battleground, with Harris still having a chance to contest
04:01the state.
04:02North Carolina is another close race, with Harris ahead by just 0.3 points.
04:08Trump won the state by 1.3 points in 2020, but Harris' small lead, coupled with the
04:13changing demographics and political landscape in North Carolina, suggests that the state
04:18could be in play for Democrats in 2024.
04:21Finally, in Virginia, Harris holds a comfortable 8-point lead.
04:26Biden won Virginia in 2020 by 10 points.
04:29So while Harris' lead is slightly smaller, Virginia is expected to remain solidly Democratic,
04:35giving her campaign a significant advantage in this state.
04:39Looking at the overall electoral map, these polling trends suggest that Vice President
04:43Harris could be poised for a strong performance in 2024, potentially winning many of the states
04:49that carried Biden to victory in the previous election.
04:52However, polling is just one metric, and betting odds offer an additional layer of
04:56complexity to the race.
04:58According to betting markets, Harris currently holds a narrow edge over Trump, with 50% odds
05:04to Trump's 49%.
05:06These odds have fluctuated significantly since Biden exited the race, with Trump initially
05:11holding a commanding lead of 66% to Harris' 18%.
05:16However, Harris has since closed the gap, even overtaking Trump in the odds at times.
05:22Interestingly, Trump still holds an advantage in several key battleground states, according
05:27to betting markets.
05:28It's important to note that the popular vote does not determine the outcome of the
05:33U.S. presidential election.
05:34As a result, while Harris may lead in the national betting odds, Trump could still win
05:39enough electoral votes to secure the presidency, as the state-by-state results will ultimately
05:44decide the race.
05:46Historically, Trump was also behind in the betting odds in both 2016 and 2020, yet both
05:52elections were highly competitive and decided by narrow margins in key swing states.
05:57In Pennsylvania, for instance, Trump currently leads in the betting markets with 52% to Harris'
06:0448%, despite Harris' lead in the polls.
06:07New Hampshire strongly favors Harris, with betting odds showing her at 85% to Trump's
06:1315%.
06:14Michigan also leans toward Harris at 59% to Trump's 41%, and Wisconsin follows suit,
06:21with Harris ahead 58% to 42%.
06:24Minnesota, solidly in the Democratic column, has Harris with a commanding 93% to Trump's
06:307%.
06:31In Nevada, Trump holds a slight edge in the betting markets at 51% to Harris' 49%, while
06:37Arizona shows a more pronounced lead for Trump, with 60% to Harris' 40%.
06:43Georgia, another key battleground, favors Trump at 58% to 42%, as does North Carolina
06:50with the same margin.
06:52Virginia, however, remains firmly in Harris' column, with an 89% to 11% advantage in the
06:58betting markets.
07:00When translating these betting odds into an electoral college map, the picture becomes
07:04more nuanced.
07:06Harris is projected to win Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, while Trump is expected to
07:11take Arizona's 11.
07:13Harris is favored to win Michigan's 15 electoral votes, while Trump is projected to claim Georgia's
07:1916.
07:20Minnesota's 10 electoral votes are solidly in Harris' camp, while Pennsylvania, with
07:25its 19 electoral votes, is leaning toward Trump.
07:28North Carolina's 16 electoral votes are also projected to go to Trump, along with Nevada's
07:346.
07:35However, Virginia's 13 electoral votes are expected to remain firmly with Harris.
07:41This betting market scenario presents a highly competitive race, emphasizing the uncertainty
07:46surrounding the 2024 election.
07:49While polls suggest Harris may have the edge, the electoral college and betting markets
07:53highlight how pivotal battleground states will be in determining the final outcome.