El PBI de la Argentina cayó un 3,4% en el primer semestre del gobierno de Milei según el INDEC. Al mismo tiempo, la desocupación subió a 7,6% en el segundo trimestre de 2024.
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00:00What happened with the PBI, with the economic growth, Fer?
00:03Well, the internal gross product had a second quarter of a fall.
00:09It had been 1.7% in the first quarter and it falls again 1.7%.
00:17The first half is left with a 3.4% fall.
00:22Really, if you go by rubric, you say that the rebound did not exist.
00:28We were talking about rebound. Do you remember that the other day we were with the images of the different news of Caputo at different times?
00:37I started to look in May, there was a whole bunch of publications saying that there were a lot of indications that this was bouncing.
00:47They throw it away, people buy it and then when it doesn't happen, it's like they never said it.
00:53There you have it, the accumulated is 3.4%.
00:56Because here you are comparing, when you say there was no rebound, you say about the first quarter and the second quarter.
01:02Here you have 1.7% interannual and 1.7% quarter against quarter.
01:07The first one had fallen more, but the first quarter surely has a summer composition that is generally not the highest, it had fallen 5.1%, 5.2%.
01:20So now, compared also, because if they don't come out to tell you, look, the PBI fell, but we are bouncing because we fell less than the previous one.
01:28That didn't happen yet, do you understand?
01:30Yes.
01:31Both fell. Interannual and the other way around.
01:34And what is incredible are the figures.
01:36The figures are overwhelming.
01:39Let's see here some of the boards.
01:41If we have any of the boards.
01:44Well, here it is saying 1.7%.
01:49These are the components of the flag.
01:51The components.
01:52Well, there are some boards, I don't have it here, I don't have it big.
01:55There are some that, for example, investment, investment fell 29.4%.
02:01There we are seeing it, 29.4%.
02:03It's incredible, it's a 30% drop in investment, that liberals always say, what solves the issue is investment.
02:09Yes.
02:10And it turns out that what falls the most is really shocking.
02:13Consumption fell, private 9.8%, and state consumption 6%.
02:21Well, there you see that it says, compared to the previous month, also what is talking about the fall.
02:26Well, and there we go to another board, which is the most interesting, the one that is really shocking.
02:33I think there is another one.
02:35Let's see, next.
02:36Here you can see, look, the last three quarters.
02:39There you see the fall.
02:40Yes.
02:41On the right, in the last one, you can see the fall because it is the third quarter that falls.
02:45Well.
02:46The third quarter had fallen, the last quarter of 2023, which were the elections.
02:52The country also turned off, saying, well, let's see what happens.
02:54And then it turned off.
02:55And then, by law, the two quarters fell.
02:58And now we go to the last board, which shows you by area.
03:01Let's see.
03:02Which is the most interesting.
03:03There.
03:04Fall of investment.
03:05Now if we see the blocks.
03:07Well, here, by area.
03:09Figure 81% above, which is what compensates for everything.
03:14For example, the issue of grape, which is the issue of agriculture and the issue of livestock.
03:23That goes up 81%.
03:25And then fishing goes up and exploitation of mines and quarries goes up.
03:29All these generate little work.
03:32And then we will see.
03:34If this had not been, how would it have been?
03:37How would we be?
03:38Well, let's look at the others that have to do with people.
03:40How much was Sinagro?
03:42Eight.
03:43Eight falls?
03:44Eight percent is a catastrophic thing.
03:46I think Ukraine, I don't know if that fell.
03:48I did the math a while ago.
03:49We had fallen 9.9 in the pandemic.
03:51Yes.
03:52To dimension, right?
03:53Look at construction.
03:5422.2%.
03:55Let's go back to the rubrics.
03:5729% investment, 22% construction.
04:00Manufacturing industry, 17.4%.
04:03Majority trade, minority trade and repairs, 15.7%.
04:08Financial mediation.
04:10One says, hey, but the financial mediation should be up.
04:13No, 9.8% fell.
04:15Private consumption, 9.8%.
04:17Public consumption, 6%.
04:20Community services, social and personal activities, 4.3%.
04:25And restaurants, 4.5%.
04:28Can I ask you a question?
04:29It really is a catastrophe.
04:30Now, the worst, what compensates for everything is the activity of the field for the issue of seed.
04:35I understand.
04:36Now I tell you, we'll see it later at another time,
04:39that the Argentine field is today in the worst moment in history.
04:45I don't tell you like that.
04:47What are you saying?
04:48As the worst moment in history.
04:49Yes, yes.
04:50Even if you don't believe it.
04:51Here I don't know.
04:52Later I will show you how.
04:54In January, you had.
04:57In January they paid you a ton of soybeans.
05:00Today, to have the same purchasing power with pesos, you have to sell two tons of soybeans.
05:07That is, it yields much less.
05:0849% less.
05:10In a little while he explains it to us.
05:12Well, I'm going to go with Hernan Lecher to the screen,
05:14because there is another important fact that was known today and has to do with employment data.
05:19And that's what we're going to share next.
05:22Join us.
05:24Let's see, Hernan.
05:26What's going on with work? What's going on with employment?
05:29Employment data came out.
05:32They refer to the second quarter, something similar to what we were talking about there,
05:36to the second quarter of this year.
05:38The data gave 7.6%.
05:41But before that, look.
05:44Don't stop surprising us, Lecher.
05:46Look at the car.
05:47Back to the future.
05:49Are you here with my law?
05:52This is a goal.
05:53Yes, good.
05:54The 90s, right?
05:55Very expensive.
05:56I'm already understanding, because here you have a one-to-one.
05:58Exactly, exactly.
06:00Can you say that we are going back to the 90s?
06:02We are still far in terms of employment,
06:04with respect to what was unemployment in the 90s,
06:07which was able to reach almost 25%.
06:09But the curve has clearly tilted upwards.
06:13And the data is worse, the one from this quarter, the second quarter,
06:18with respect to what was the first quarter.
06:20Here is something to clarify, which I think is very important.
06:23Today you mentioned it, you sent me the tweet from Campos,
06:26who also makes a good analysis about it, Luis Campos.
06:29Because maybe someone says,
06:31wait, 7.6% is less than 7.7% that the first quarter had given.
06:35Look at a little bit, look at a little bit.
06:38Unemployment has a seasonality.
06:40What does this mean?
06:41That not all quarters are equivalent.
06:43We just saw it with the GDP.
06:45Something similar happens.
06:46Not all quarters are equivalent.
06:48The second quarter is usually a quarter of good employment,
06:53of good employment performance, much better than the first.
06:56In fact, the data, and if you want, now let's go to the data.
07:00Here you have 7.6% unemployment in the second quarter of 2024.
07:06But I want to show you the next chart
07:08to tell you what I was telling you.
07:10Is it high? Is it not high? How do I read it?
07:14Well, I have to look at the second quarter of last year.
07:17Look at the next chart.
07:197.6, I compare it with 6.2.
07:22Well, how much does it give me?
07:251.4 percentage points of increase.
07:28For my way of seeing it, it's a lot in interannual terms.
07:32Unemployment increases.
07:35A point and a half is a lot.
07:38One, I still have the feeling
07:41that the number is still relatively low
07:44due to the policies that my law has promoted
07:48and that have not yet been reflected.
07:51Fully, I would say.
07:53Maybe you had a mattress, we can evaluate.
07:55There is a lot of debate.
07:56Luis Campos said, well, it is debatable.
07:58But it coincided that the data is a very significant increase
08:02in interannual terms.
08:04If I look at the first quarter, as I said, it gave 7.7.
08:07But the difference was less than a point.
08:10That's why I say that this quarter,
08:12the data of this quarter are sensitively more complicated
08:17and glimpse a worse scenario.
08:20The third quarter gives 5.7.
08:23I tell you to think when the third quarter comes.
08:26The third quarter of last year will give 5.7.
08:30So you compare against 5.7.
08:33If it stays here, let's say it gives 7.7,
08:36the difference is already two points.
08:38Do you understand how it gets complicated?
08:40But I want to tell you some data
08:42of what this important publication was.
08:45Because one says, well, 7.6,
08:47I don't know, distributed in Argentina.
08:49No, there are some much more complicated places.
08:51The GBA games, if you want to think about the Urbano-Bonaerense,
08:55especially, and those of the third quarter and others,
08:58the increase was or is today at 9.1.
09:02It is a much more significant number.
09:04The highest data is held by Gran Resistencia,
09:06which has 11% unemployment.
09:09And I add a data that I didn't bring here,
09:11but it is important.
09:12There are two provinces, Jujuy and Córdoba,
09:15which have unemployment of 8.2% and 4%.
09:18It is not so much, 8.2% and 4%, not so much.
09:21But they have a problem.
09:23Occupied plaintiffs of 30%.
09:26What are you talking about, Hernán?
09:28Occupied plaintiffs are people who are working,
09:30who want to work more,
09:32because obviously it is not enough.
09:34Well, the problem is that it already came from the previous government, right?
09:37No, the data increased significantly,
09:39especially in these two localities.
09:41It is a third of the...
09:43A third. People who are working,
09:45want to work more,
09:46because it is not enough.
09:47Do you understand?
09:48Yes.
09:49Particularly in those two places,
09:50the data is very significant.
09:52I pass you the data by age range.
09:55This is quite common,
09:57that this age range, 14 to 29,
09:59is the most complicated.
10:02And particularly in women.
10:03More women.
10:04Yes.
10:05Now, 16.5.
10:06Do you know how much it was,
10:08or how much it reached a year ago?
10:1013.4.
10:11Here we already increased a little bit and a half.
10:14Three points.
10:15Three points, 3.1?
10:16Yes.
10:17A lot.
10:18And in the case of men,
10:19a little less,
10:20it went from 12.3 to 13.9,
10:22but also a significant jump.
10:24Those who are more vulnerable...
10:26That is, it increased the very serious unemployment
10:28in women between 14 and 29.
10:30Yes.
10:31Those who are more vulnerable in terms of employment
10:34see it more complicated when things get complicated.
10:38It hits them worse.
10:39And finally, a concrete fact to say,
10:42well, Hernán, let's see,
10:44and with unemployment,
10:45how many unemployed do we have in Argentina?
10:47And what happened in inter-annual terms?
10:50Well, we have almost 1.7 million unemployed people.
10:53Okay?
10:54And the increase is sensitive.
10:56350,000 cases.
10:58If I extrapolate it at the national level.
11:00Here there is a methodological question
11:02that does not come to mind,
11:03but it has to do with...
11:05Look, in inter-annual terms,
11:07you have almost 350,000 additional unemployed people.
11:11One last final fact.
11:13The pressure on the labor market.
11:16We did not bring the data,
11:17but it is quite significant.
11:18Something similar to what I said in Jujuy and in Cordoba.
11:22There are many people who either are unemployed
11:26or are employed, but are demanding,
11:29or are employed and not demanding,
11:31but pressure on the labor market.
11:33We are talking about almost 7%.
11:35It is a very significant number
11:37because that somehow gives you the guideline
11:40of how bad the labor market is.
11:43Bad in the sense of how much demand there is
11:45dissatisfied in terms of work.
11:47Thank you, Hernán.
11:48Join me.
11:49We are going to continue.