After repeat devastation by floods, a community in Kerala has come together to mitigate the impact of climate change: collecting and sharing regional-specific weather data.
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00:00Another heavy downpour catches people in the Wayanad region unprepared.
00:06For five years, extreme weather has become more common here.
00:11Each time, there's as much rainfall within a few days as there usually is in three months
00:16during the monsoon.
00:18Landslides trigger mudslides and rock avalanches that bury everything under them.
00:24This summer, almost 700 people lost their lives, 300 are still missing.
00:30Farmers in the region also have few defences against such extreme weather.
00:34And yet, India has no shortage of weather stations.
00:38India is a country which has invested so much on rain forecasting, on weather forecasting
00:44for the farmers.
00:45We are a country which sent a satellite, which set up a satellite information centre for
00:51agriculture weather forecasting way back in 1964.
00:53We were the first, the only one at that time.
00:57Then we are also one country which has a whole centre for medium weather forecasting.
01:02There is a national centre on medium weather forecasting.
01:05The entire system still doesn't tell you whether it's going to rain in my village,
01:09in my valley, tomorrow or not.
01:12Organic farmer Rajesh Krishnan set up a collective of organic rice farmers in 2017.
01:18The farmer producer organisation now has 85 members.
01:23The farmers are also part of the Wayanad weather forecast community.
01:27It works together with meteorologists from the Hume Centre and Cochin University.
01:32Together with the director of the Hume Centre, the scientists have developed a climate monitoring
01:36system that produces local weather forecasts.
01:41To do this, they need precise data from the area.
01:45That's where local residents come in.
01:48In each of the grid, we installed rain gauges and we identified local people from the villages,
01:54farmers, school teachers, students, etc.
01:57And these people were given training how to measure rainfall in the same manner that IMD
02:01is taking data, because we also wanted to compare the data for a larger analysis, if
02:07anybody wanted.
02:08So the data has become very standard, the protocol has been followed.
02:12And every day these farmers used to give rainfall data into a WhatsApp group that we created
02:17called Wayanad weather forecast.
02:19The data is recorded and analysed in spreadsheets.
02:23This enables the scientists to determine which areas will have the heaviest rainfall at what
02:28time.
02:29Cochin University has a supercomputer with access to data from global weather models.
02:35The scientists use this to compare the data from Wayanad and then create a local weather
02:40forecast for the region.
02:43Data updation is the major thing, we have to spend much time on that.
02:47There will be errors, someone might have been typing and there will be some kind of error.
02:53So we have to cross-check that.
02:54We have to take every grid's data, then only we can make it perfect that how much intensity
03:00was there in each grid.
03:03Wayanad is located in the Western Ghats, a hilly region that is often affected by the
03:09El Niño climate pattern.
03:12Rising sea surface temperatures affect the amount of rainfall here.
03:20The global warming induced changes in the sea surface temperature increase in Arabian
03:24Sea has contributed for creating more vertical cloud formation and these clouds are approaching
03:30along with the monsoon into the Western Ghats.
03:34So wherever there are high steep mountains, there is an orographic lift of clouds from
03:40the base to the top of the mountain and when it reaches like 2300 meters, it starts precipitating
03:45in that particular area leading to a longer cloud-based event.
03:50The more data the team receives, the more accurately they can predict where it will
03:55rain heavily.
03:56But for that, they need far more people on board.
04:00For the region's around 900,000 residents, the scientists have only reached around 400.
04:06But they regularly share their data in a WhatsApp group and find it really helpful.
04:13Farmer Jayaprakash Narayanan has been involved since 2021.
04:18Every morning, he measures moisture levels in his soil and posts the data in the group.
04:24In the afternoon, he receives a rainfall forecast for the region.
04:28So far, they have been 75-80% accurate, he says.
04:36Advanced knowledge helps us make informed decisions, such as when to move coffee to
04:40the drying yard.
04:42This timely information and its effective use are crucial for optimising our farming
04:47practices and also so that we can pass the information on to other farmers.
04:57Rajesh Krishnan is also convinced that this locally focused model is highly effective
05:02for farmers, enabling them to protect themselves and their crops from extreme weather.
05:08When you start getting the medium range, which is 7-10 days' information, you can decide
05:14your farm activities.
05:15You have decided your variety.
05:17Now you can decide on what date will I do tilling, what date I do planting, what day
05:22I apply manure and all that, because especially when we are organic farmers, we use a lot
05:28of liquid manure for our crops.
05:32And if it rains heavily on the day when we are putting it, everything washes off to the
05:36nearest stream and from there to Bangalore.
05:39He has also created a weather calendar so that more rice farmers can join in and also
05:44get used to regular weather service.
05:47Both sides benefit from their combined efforts.
05:50The model could also be implemented in other regions in India in order to better protect
05:55the rural population in particular from extreme weather events.