A major hurricane is set to impact the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week as it tracks northward from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. It's expected to make landfall this Thursday, Sept. 26.
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00:00And a couple of things, John.
00:01Our initial thought was the way that dip in the jet stream was coming.
00:05We were a little worried it could be in the southwest Atlantic.
00:08So that's why we had a big area.
00:10And then we refined that zone more into the Gulf of Mexico.
00:14And it's important to note, I believe the 18th was on Tuesday when we went with that
00:18high risk.
00:20National Hurricane Center went with a high risk as well, but not until I believe it was
00:25Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening.
00:28And our concern was we wanted to give everybody enough notice because homegrown development
00:33means you have less time to get ready.
00:37That's the key point.
00:38And that's what we're always focused on here at Active Weather is giving you the best information
00:41so that you can make the best decisions to keep you and your family safer.
00:46We always share what we know.
00:47And Bernie, as you as we saw in the video, we had very serious concerns about this pattern
00:52setting up weeks ago ahead of all other sources.
00:55And that's what we communicated.
00:57John, a quick timeline, strengthening in the storm on Tuesday, rapid intensification, intensification
01:03to a major hurricane Wednesday in the Gulf of Mexico, landfalls, a major hurricane in
01:08Florida.
01:09We are targeting right now the Big Bend area as landfall.
01:14We'll talk about the landfall here in a second.
01:17Let's talk about where we are right now, John.
01:19Well, we can see on the satellite loop, we have lots of thunderstorms developing, especially
01:24on the eastern side of the storm.
01:26It's a little bit lopsided right now.
01:28Notice there's a lot more thunderstorm activity indicated in those reds and oranges, tall
01:32thunderstorm clouds on the east side of the storm versus the west.
01:36It's getting a little bit of wind shear to the west.
01:38We expect that that will abate, though.
01:40And today's going to be a big day for this tropical rainstorm because we expect it's
01:45going to intensify into a tropical storm here through the day today.
01:50And then into the Gulf of Mexico.
01:51And then things get a little more concerning as we move forward.
01:55John, I want to show you the water vapor loop, because the one thing we've been noting,
01:59we noted this yesterday, there was a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and dry air
02:03can prevent tropical systems from developing.
02:07But what we thought would happen is, is that instead of that dry air coming into the center
02:11of circulation, it would get pushed away.
02:15And boy, that looks like that's the right call, given what we're looking at right now.
02:20That's exactly what it looks like.
02:21It's doing it.
02:22It's interesting.
02:23That's the first thing I looked at this morning when I started analyzing the situation, the
02:27water vapor loop, to see if that moisture was being drawn to the north.
02:31And look at the blue colors being drawn, green colors being drawn north into the Gulf of
02:36Mexico.
02:37So that's the area where there's less wind shear.
02:38And it looks like, as we expected, that that moisture is coming along with the storm.
02:43One thing I've also noticed, and this was pointed out by Alex De Silva, and you can
02:46see it.
02:47Look at that arcing band of moisture toward the Florida Keys.
02:51And you know what?
02:52It's arcing in a clockwise rotation.
02:56And that tells you you have good outflow as this gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
03:01So that's two out of the three ingredients we need, increasing moisture, lowering wind
03:07shear.
03:08And, you know, John, the water temperatures have already always been warm.
03:12This is one product we look at.
03:14Yeah, this isn't even close of a concern here.
03:16This water is, in some cases, record warmth, running four to six degrees above the long-term
03:23historic average.
03:24It's not only right at the sea surface, as you see in this plot, but it's also deep,
03:29several hundred feet deep in the Gulf of Mexico in some locations.
03:33And it looks like, look at the track of the storm, it's going to go right over the deepest
03:37water with the highest temperature and a little loop current, as we call it.
03:42And that's why we're expecting this storm to rapidly intensify.
03:46And when storms do that, that's when they bring even greater impacts.
03:50That's why we're concerned about the storm surge, about the damaging wind and the rain
03:54potential.
03:55And when you look at our eye path, John, now, listen, I'm going to tell everybody, you and
03:58I disagree just a little bit on this eye path.
04:00And this is and this is where conflict is good.
04:05I'm worried it's a little farther west, just the shade toward Apalachicola and maybe as
04:12far west as Panama City Beach.
04:15You're worried that it could be a little farther down the coast in Florida, just north of Tampa.
04:20Yeah, I'm a little worried it could be a little bit further east.
04:23But see, Bernie, this is the point.
04:25This is why the power of active weather with our team of over 100 expert meteorologists
04:30debating, having these kinds of debates like you and I just did.
04:33And that's why we have a window of movement.
04:35So don't focus only on that center track line.
04:38Of course, that's important.
04:40But notice the left and right side of that window.
04:42We we are making a decision about where we're going to put those left and right boundaries
04:47to indicate where the storm could be located at a time to communicate the uncertainty as
04:51we get closer and closer.
04:53And once the storm actually develops a low level center, we'll be able to shrink that
04:57window of movement.
04:58So we'll be more confident about exactly where it's headed.
05:01That's why you need to be prepared on the west coast of Florida, all the way up toward
05:05up portions of the Mississippi coast and be checking with active weather more frequently
05:09than usual.
05:10Yeah, you and I made the decision.
05:11Let's wait until Tuesday afternoon.
05:13And I think we're going to wait until this afternoon to make that a little smaller, be
05:17on the safe side.
05:18All right.
05:19Accuweather chief meteorologist John Porter.
05:20John, thanks for joining us here today on Accuweather Early.