A tropical rainstorm is currently developing over the Caribbean Sea. The storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane and travel north, targeting the U.S. Gulf Coast before the end of the week.
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00:00let's really quickly we'll take a look at the satellite picture here this morning and you
00:03could just see this is this is actually now following the exact timeline we thought it would
00:11last week just a growing area of thunderstorms off the Nicaraguan Honduras coast. Good morning
00:18Bernie that's right you can see that area of thunderstorms starting to get better organized
00:22and as AccuWeather predicted we're the only source to have a track on this system and it's of note
00:29because we're talking about the risk for a major hurricane landfall across parts of Florida here
00:34in the coming days. Now as we take a look at our landfall in the short term or our eyepath in the
00:39short term tropical storm in the northwest Caribbean by tomorrow afternoon then a hurricane
00:45into the Gulf of Mexico. John when we look at all of the ingredients there is only one ingredient
00:51right now that could be a limiting factor there's a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico but we do
00:58feel though that that system in the in the Caribbean in a sense will create its own environment
01:05to grow and thrive. Many times when these hurricanes are developing that's what they do
01:11they create a a moist pocket around them and they're able to sustain themselves even though
01:17there's a lot of dry air look at the yellows and oranges there in the Gulf of Mexico on the water
01:22vapor loop so there's a lot of mid-level dry air that the storm will need to overcome but we think
01:27it will be able to do that because it kind of creates all its own environment with abundant
01:32moisture but this is one of the factors Bernie you and I were talking about yeah when we were
01:36talking with our expert team last night about some of the factors that are going to go into this storm
01:42the one factor that it is somewhat frightening I must admit John and I know that that's not
01:48hyperbole that is just a fact the water temperatures in the middle to upper 80s but
01:54John it's more than just that you had talked about this to me last week when you look at the
02:00Gulf of Mexico there's also a ribbon of what we call high ocean heat content in the central and
02:08eastern Gulf of Mexico explain that right and that's what we're looking at is is the depth of
02:13the warm water not just at the surface but through a depth of the ocean in some cases it goes down
02:19a couple hundred feet in the deeper parts of the Gulf and you notice the track of the storm
02:24the Accuweather IPATH has that going right over the core of that ocean heat content that's the
02:30oranges and the reds in that graphic that's extremely concerning and that's why we're
02:35talking about the opportunity for this storm to rapidly intensify quickly gain wind intensity
02:40and become a very dangerous hurricane because it's going to be passing over some of the warmest water
02:45in the Gulf of Mexico and then let's take a look at the IPATH John as we go forward here
02:50again we made the decision this morning as a team to make this a major hurricane by Thursday
02:57morning then then depending on the strength of that system it when it goes over that ribbon of
03:03warm water I mean this could easily be a category three hurricane when it makes landfall we do feel
03:10like there will be a loss of wind intensity as it approaches land Thursday afternoon
03:19we are concerned that that will occur but this can be a large storm and especially when storms
03:24are major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico that can really can increase the storm surge risk
03:30there's going to be a storm surge concern on this from Tampa and new areas north and west along the
03:36Florida coastline and that can occur several hundred miles away from where the storm makes
03:41landfall so we want people to be aware of that and prepared that's going to be a special danger
03:45along with the wind and the flooding rain and this can become Bernie a very significant flooding
03:50issue all the way up into Atlanta the mountains the upstate of South Carolina and the mountains
03:54of North Carolina where several inches four to eight inches of rain may fall and that can produce
04:00very significant flooding mudslides rock slides a long week on the way here with significant
04:05impacts at the coast and well inland one important to note uh important thing to note though John
04:11while we have that landfall near Apalachicola it is important to note that we still see the
04:17possibility of a jog all the way west into the far eastern parishes of Louisiana and the Florida
04:24peninsula not ruled out for a landfalling hurricane either that's right that's why we have that window
04:32of movement that's the exclusive accuweather to our meteorologists are deciding exactly where to
04:37put that right and left window so that we're conveying the uncertainty of the situation and
04:42helping you to make the best decisions in this scenario watch there may be a little bit of a
04:46jog to the east with this one yeah you know John to me and we're gonna we'll continue to take a
04:50look at this and you and I were talking about this I think the area is from Panama city beach
04:54toward the big bend of Florida I'm really worried about the Florida panhandle but again we cannot
04:59rule out the far eastern and western side and that's why for now this will remain unchanged