Israel says it has killed another high-ranking Hezbollah official in an airstrike
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00:00We can get a bit more of a global view with Amin Saikal, who's Professor Emeritus of Middle East
00:05and Central Asian and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University and the author
00:10of a number of books on the Middle East. He joins us now from Melbourne. Thanks very much for
00:15connecting. So you've been writing about the region for more than two decades. How dangerous
00:22is the period that we're currently in? I think extremely dangerous. Of course,
00:28the next step for Israel is to go for invasion of southern Lebanon. And as your previous speaker
00:35said, that I think the Israelis would like to really push Hezbollah back beyond the Latani River,
00:43and that's 29 kilometres north of the Israeli border. But this is what also Hezbollah has
00:50wanted, to draw Israel into a ground war. Because in a ground war, Hezbollah in the past have been
00:59able to inflict very heavy casualties on Israelis. You know, we've seen that in 2002. And of course,
01:10we've seen it again in 2006. Sorry, in 1982. And then we've seen it in 2006. So I think the
01:18situation is extremely dangerous at this point. And of course, it also will depend very much
01:25on what Iran is going to do. Because what Israel has done by killing Nasrallah, and indeed a number
01:33of other commanders, and then bombing the headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut, is to send
01:40a very powerful message to Iran that it is prepared to cut out those forces on which Iran
01:50relies in order to ensure its national and regional security. So it is basically goading Iran to come
02:01into the conflict. Because the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is very confident of American
02:09support, whatever really happens. Although the United States have said that they are very
02:14reluctant to back Israel in a war with Iran, but should Israel ignite such a war, I don't think
02:21that the Biden administration will have any option but to support Israel. And in that case, then I
02:27think we are going to have a much bigger conflict in our hands, because Iran also has international
02:32supporters, and especially Russia and China, not to mention North Korea.
02:38Let's just compare with perhaps those wars that you mentioned in the past. How might an all-out
02:45war between Israel and Hezbollah look in 2024? How have things changed militarily?
02:53I mean, Israel has succeeded in obviously degrading Hezbollah, but perhaps not to the
02:59extent that Hezbollah will not be able to retaliate. I mean, we have already seen Hezbollah
03:07firing missiles and drones into Israel. Israeli objective is to make sure that the Israeli
03:17citizens are able to return to their homes in northern Israel. But Hezbollah will do everything
03:24possible to prevent that, and Hezbollah still has the capability to do that. And there have
03:31been reports that the Iranians have been mobilising forces and possibly sending forces to Lebanon in
03:38order to help Hezbollah. So I think what Israel really wants may not be really as easily as
03:46achievable as perhaps Prime Minister Netanyahu and some of his hardliners have presented so far.
03:53So in order for this escalation to reverse course,
03:58there needs to be quite significant change geopolitically. What changes would this require?
04:05Well, there is a simple solution. I mean, Hezbollah has said all along that if there is a
04:09ceasefire in Gaza, then of course there will be no reason for Hezbollah to continue its cross-border
04:14firing. I mean, Hezbollah has acted since the 7th of October or 8th of October in solidarity
04:22with the Palestinians and more specifically with Hamas. There has all along been a diplomatic
04:29solution to this problem. And still I think that there is a diplomatic solution, and of course the
04:34Americans have been saying that over and over. But at the same time, let's not forget that the
04:40bomb which has been dropped on Lebanese today and in the past few days, they are American-made
04:47bombs. The plane which really dropped them, they are American-made planes. So I think the United
04:54States will have to really exercise all the leverage that it has in order to restrain
05:00Israel. And the Biden administration can do that by informing the Israelis that they are going to
05:07cut off supply of arms. That is the best way to really put pressure on Israel in order to come
05:14to the negotiation for a more diplomatic solution rather than a military solution
05:20to all the problems that faces Israel and of course the region up to this point.
05:27Amin Saikal, thank you so much for speaking to France 24.
05:31My pleasure.