Iran's Revolutionary Guard is deeply infiltrated by Mossad, expert says
The Israeli prime minister is this Thursday holding the latest in a series of top-level security consultations, as Binyamin Netanyahu decides how and when to respond to the Iranian missile barrage. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Abbas Milani, Director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University and founding co-director of the Iran Democracy Project. He says that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is deeply infiltrated by Mossad and the regime cannot count on its full support in case of a war.
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NewsTranscript
00:00The latest fighting comes as the wider region braces for Israeli retaliation following an
00:09Iranian ballistic missile strike on Tuesday.
00:12The Israeli Prime Minister is tonight holding the latest in a series of top-level security
00:17consultations as Benjamin Netanyahu decides how and when to respond to the Iranian missile
00:23barrage.
00:24Diplomatic efforts to avert a further escalation are gathering pace.
00:28Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden says he doesn't expect Israel to retaliate immediately,
00:33adding that discussions are ongoing about potential strikes on Iranian oil facilities.
00:39Delano de Souza has more.
00:43Iran's army was considered the most powerful in the Middle East during the Shah's rule.
00:48The country had cordial relations and military links with the state of Israel.
00:53But after the Islamic Revolution and the costly war with Iraq in the 1980s, its army
00:58took a beating.
01:00Iran is geographically large.
01:02The country of 90 million has over 500,000 active military personnel, as well as fighters
01:08in the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Army Reservists.
01:12Western sanctions have weighed on the state of Iran's army, with Tehran struggling to
01:17upgrade its military hardware.
01:20Back in May, the helicopter of the country's late president crashed.
01:24The accident put the focus on the state of its decrepit air force.
01:29Iran is estimated to have roughly 140 American fighter jets from before the revolution, as
01:34well as more recent Russian-made models.
01:37To make up for shortfalls in hardware, the country has built ballistic and cruise missiles,
01:43as well as created a domestic industry of kamikaze drones.
01:47Iran used new hypersonic technology to retaliate against Israel in the latest barrage it launched.
01:54The missiles travel five times faster than the speed of sound.
01:59The advancement is also used to compensate for the state of the Iranian navy.
02:03With three submarines and 50 patrol boats, Iran has turned to miniature submarines and
02:08surface ships, which can block maritime traffic in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
02:14Iran also lacks modern anti-ballistic and air defence capabilities, which is why Tehran's
02:19strategy prioritises asymmetric warfare through the use of regional proxies to keep the fight
02:25far away from its territory as possible.
02:29To discuss the situation in Iran, we're joined now by Abbas Milani, Director of Iranian Studies
02:34at Stanford University and founding co-director of the Iran Democracy Project.
02:39Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Abbas.
02:43As we heard there in Delanna's report, Iran has lots of weapons.
02:46Most analysts agree it would not be able to defeat Israel in an all-out war.
02:51How do you expect Israel to respond to the Iranian missile attack of Tuesday and what
02:58then for Iran?
03:01I think Israel has to decide whether it wants a full war with Iran or, as I think President
03:08Biden suggests, opt for a controlled response that would then allow Iran to scale down the
03:16level of confrontation.
03:18My sense is that Israel believes Iran is now in its weakest moment and has never been as
03:24weak as it is now.
03:26And if they're going to have an out with Iran, and Iran has insisted that they want to eliminate
03:33Israel, so it is a war of attrition as has been so far.
03:37This might be, for Israel, the moment that they decide to attack.
03:41That will, I think, radically destabilise the region.
03:45Because Iran appears intent on rendering Iran weak enough that it won't be able to continue
03:49these kind of attacks on Israel.
03:52Is that a realistic objective?
03:54You know, Iran's propaganda is more full of bragging than actual ability to deliver.
04:03I think they well know that they can't withstand a barrage of attacks, particularly if it's
04:09the United States decides to join.
04:11The missiles haven't been that effective yet.
04:14They claim to be very precise, but they haven't been very precise.
04:18So if there is a confrontation, I think it might well bring about the demise of the regime.
04:25And that's why Iran is walking very gingerly.
04:28It is trying to respond, but respond in a way so that it can tell its radical fringes,
04:34it can tell its allies that it's not weak beyond the ability to respond, but yet not
04:41get into a full attack or a full war with the United States and Israel.
04:45Yes, and some Israelis, including former prime ministers, have expressed the belief that
04:49they believe the Iranian regime might actually fall.
04:52People might come out onto the streets in protest.
04:54How much support does it enjoy, though, among the ordinary people of Iran?
05:00I think the Iranian regime now, credibly, there are many polls that indicate that.
05:04I think the regime itself knows.
05:06I think at best it enjoys maybe 15 to 20 percent support of the population.
05:11The people are very disgruntled with the regime, with its corruption, with its cronyism, with
05:16its ability to constantly engage Iran in wars that most Iranians don't want.
05:23And thus, I think the regime is in its weakest.
05:27When Iran fought the war with Iraq, I lived in Iran at the time, I taught in Iran at the
05:32time, there were thousands of students who volunteered to go to the front.
05:36I don't think they will have any volunteers to go fight for them.
05:41They can only rely on their most reliable forces, which is the IRGC.
05:47And now we know that the IRGC is deeply, deeply infiltrated by Mossad and by probably
05:55other intelligence agencies, but certainly by Mossad.
05:58Yeah, because we had claims from the former Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, saying
06:03that up to 20 double agents were found to be working as moles, providing Israel with
06:08sensitive information.
06:09Would that account for the success that Israel has had in its fight against Hezbollah and
06:15what we're seeing taking place in Lebanon?
06:18I think it's much more than 20.
06:20If you look at all the actions that Israel has done in Iran, including taking the entire
06:26nuclear archive of the Iranian regime, carrying it to Azerbaijan and then taking it to Israel,
06:33assassinating some of the top scientists, assassinating the head of Iran's military
06:38nuclear program in a remarkable coordinated attack.
06:42You have to assume that the level of infiltration is much, much higher.
06:47And to know exactly where Nasser Allah was and go after him there indicates that they
06:53are also, I think, fairly deeply entrenched in Hezbollah.
06:59There are reports in Iran that Mr. Khamenei has become very worried about who in the top
07:05echelon of the IRGC might be a double agent.
07:08Hezbollah is very apparently worried about who in their ranks was responsible.
07:15The fact that they would buy 3,000 pages that have been absolutely compromised indicates
07:22that Israelis knew that they were about to buy all of this, and then knew where they
07:27were going to buy it, and they succeeded in implanting the devices that they used.
07:34And there's speculation as well that Israel, it might be considering, and the US said that
07:38this will not be the case, but that it might be considering hitting sites linked to Iran's
07:44nuclear program.
07:45What do you think is happening there?
07:47Is Iran continuing to make progress?
07:49Analysts suggesting as well that becoming a nuclear state could offer a new way for
07:55the Iranian regime to promote its power abroad, given just the series of events that have
08:01happened over the past few weeks, over the past few months, it's really in a weakened
08:05position now.
08:06Well, I mean, I think if you read or listen to Iranian officials talk in the last few
08:12months, you would know that they have clearly lied all along, saying that the only purpose
08:17of the program was peaceful.
08:20Anyone who watched the Iranian military program knew that they were hedging.
08:25They were clearly working towards having the bomb.
08:30And I think most experts agree that Iran can now build a bomb very quickly.
08:36I don't think their allies, their sole allies, China and Russia, would want Iran to become
08:41a nuclear state because China and Russia are both now very close to Saudi Arabia.
08:47They don't, China and Russia, don't want a full nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
08:52And the Iranian regime, I think, knows that if they declare themselves to be a nuclear,
08:57they can definitely expect attacks by Israel and the United States.
09:02That would, I think, get us into the full war.
09:06But that might be the only gamble left for them.
09:09I think.
09:10Sorry for cutting, sorry for cutting across you.
09:13Would you believe then that the American-Israeli alliance, that that perhaps is the only thing
09:17from stopping Iran from going full steam ahead with its nuclear ambitions?
09:24I think that alliance, I think that I would be very surprised if the Chinese are not telling
09:29the Iranians not to go, not to take that step, or the Russians are not telling them not to
09:34go that way, because it would be very difficult for China and Russia to support Iran.
09:41All of those factors would, I think, dissipate if the regime, which is keen on survival,
09:49sees its own survival at hand and might then take the ultimate risk.
09:55I think it's not going to save them if they do it.
09:58But that might be the only option left to them.
10:01And finally, Abbas, how badly humiliated has Tehran been by all of this, by these Israeli
10:06attacks on Hezbollah?
10:08Many regional states close to it, they would actually like to see a weakened Iran, even
10:13though they may not be saying that publicly.
10:15I fully agree with you.
10:16I think almost every neighbor Iran has, because at one time or another, Iran has interfered
10:22in their affairs or threatened them, didn't mind this.
10:27And I think they are embarrassed.
10:28And the embarrassment isn't just that they killed Hania in Iran and they killed Hezbollah.
10:34The Israelis have been going at the top leadership of the Iranian IRGC in Syria rather systematically.
10:41They've gone against some of the top IRGC in Iran rather systematically.
10:46Iran hasn't been able to stop it.
10:49Thank you so much for your time on the program, Abbas.
10:51We'll have to leave it there for now.
10:53That is Abbas Milani, director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University, also founding
10:58co-director of the Iran Democracy Project.
11:01Thank you so much for your time on the program.
11:02We do appreciate it.
11:04That's it from us for now.
11:06Stay with us, though.
11:07Up next, it's Eye on Africa.