AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva monitor the path of Hurricane Milton as the storm is expected to barrel across the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida as a Category 3 storm this Wednesday.
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00:00This time last week we talked about this that couple of there were a couple of problems there
00:05were a couple of formation problems that we had multiple pieces of energy but if we were going
00:11to get a storm it would be coming out of the Yucatan Peninsula and that's exactly what has
00:17happened in the last couple of days. Yeah and we were worried that if it took kind of a more
00:22southern track close to the Yucatan Peninsula it could avoid a lot of that wind shear that
00:26hostile wind shear that's to the north along the northern gulf coast and track right over that area
00:31of high ocean heat content and look what we've seen the storm has exploded here over the last 24
00:37hours it's a borderline category four it just needs five more miles per hour to get to that
00:41category four status and I think it could do it as early as later this morning or early afternoon.
00:46Let's talk about some of the ingredients let's begin with not only warm water in the Gulf of
00:53Mexico but what we call a high content a high values of ocean heat content explain this graphic
01:01to our viewers Alex. Yeah it's not only about the sea surface temperatures it's how deep into the
01:06ocean those warm waters extend and everywhere where you're seeing that dark orange and red color
01:11that's where the 80 degree temperature line extends three to four hundred feet down below
01:17the surface of the ocean and we had Helene move through these areas but the water was so deep and
01:23so warm that even though Helene mixed up some of the waters it just mixed warm water right back up
01:28and so we actually really didn't see that much of a reduction in the sea surface or even ocean
01:33heat content with Helene so it's it's prime for intensification all the way to the coast of
01:38Florida. And we talked about the wind shear Alex that there was going to be a little ribbon of
01:42lower wind shear and there it is across the southern Gulf of Mexico and right now Alex
01:49it's in the perfect unfortunately pertaining the wind shear perfect location for intensification.
01:56It certainly is I like to call it the Goldilocks zone low wind shear plenty of ocean heat content
02:01that's why we're seeing this storm rapidly intensify borderline category four hurricane
02:05should be one very shortly could even try to make a run even higher towards a category five but
02:11yeah I mean it's in that zone that light purple is the zone of low wind shear you can see all the
02:15hostile wind shear to the north and so the track is going to be very very key if it moves more to
02:21the north it will run into a little more of that wind shear but if it stays a little more south
02:24you can see kind of that channel of lower wind shear. All right let's talk about where we're
02:29going here now it's two dips in the jet stream what we call two troughs across the United States
02:34Tuesday and Wednesday that will determine where this goes because there are wide range still of
02:41possibilities let's talk about first if the northern trough the one across the east coast
02:47is more dominant yeah if that northern trough is a little more dominant it can push the storm a
02:51little bit further to the east now under this situation the storm would likely move in more
02:55towards the Naples area and the storm would actually likely be a little bit stronger because
02:59it could like it could avoid some of that wind shear that's across the north second scenario
03:04is the worst case scenario for Tampa if the if the trough to the west is a little bit stronger
03:10can actually pick up the storm and move it to the north at the last minute and this is the
03:14scenario I'm very very concerned about it might lose a little bit of wind intensity coming in
03:19but this is the scenario that would be really really bad for the Tampa Bay area and of course
03:24in you could have different strengths of those different jet streams and you can have a track
03:29right toward Tampa or just off to the south right now Alex the decision was made let's have the
03:35center of circulation just south of Tampa making landfall Wednesday evening it's kind of a middle
03:40ground between the two solutions but I am a little bit worried that that second trough could be a
03:44little more dominant and we could see a track move a little bit more to the north now
03:49I don't want you to pay too much attention and what the landfall strength is we're right now
03:53forecasting major hurricane category three but look we have a category four forecasted before
03:59landfall the storm is going to be able to generate a lot of power a lot of wave action a lot of surge
04:05prior to landfall so even if it loses a little bit of that wind intensity you're still going to have a
04:09category four strength type surge being shoved into a lot of these bays and it's a persistent
04:15storm surge because of the track that begins Tuesday night continues Wednesday and then even
04:21Wednesday night into Thursday that northwesterly flow produces a wind shear and oh by the way
04:27on the northern side of this storm Alex along the east coast of Florida there's going to be a
04:31damaging storm surge as well yeah you can see as the storm kind of rotates through the wind shifts
04:36around and so even if areas in in the Tampa Bay don't get the initial push of push of storm surge
04:42we're still going to get that back bay flooding as the winds switch around to the northwest so
04:46all these coastline areas very important that you listen to your local management officials
04:51and evacuate if you're told to do so a lot of the dunes a lot of the protective barriers
04:56in these areas have been eroded away from Helene and so
04:59a lot of areas are much more prone to storm surge this second time around.