AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter warn that the conditions set to be brought by powerful Hurricane Milton is setting up to be a historic storm as it continues to threaten Florida.
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00:00John, what strikes me most about this impact map is that all of the Florida Peninsula is
00:07going to be impacted.
00:08Let's break down the categories.
00:11Well that's right, Bernie.
00:12It's going to be an expanding storm becoming even larger as it nears the coast, which is
00:17going to draw out those storm surge, heavy rain and devastating wind impacts.
00:22And notice we have a catastrophic risk to life and property in the Tampa Bay area and
00:28surrounding west coast locations down to Bradenton and Sarasota as a result of a life
00:33threatening catastrophic storm surge that's going to be occurring, inundating these particular
00:38areas as well as devastating winds that will go well inland, destructive winds well inland
00:44and flooding rainfall along into the north, especially of the storm's path.
00:48So a wide variety of dangerous risks.
00:50That's why this storm has been rated for several days a four on AccuWeather's real impact scale
00:55for hurricanes.
00:56Yeah, let's go over that, John.
00:57So here's the AccuWeather real impact scale.
00:59For those of you seeing this for the first time, it begins at less than one.
01:02We talk about some damage.
01:03This is a six point scale.
01:05It ends at catastrophic damage to large population areas.
01:09That is a number five.
01:11John, let's go over the decision to make this a four.
01:15Well, right.
01:16When we're looking at this type of destruction, we're talking about very significant damage.
01:22And remember, the unique thing about the AccuWeather real impact scale for hurricanes is that it
01:26considers far more factors than just the wind.
01:29Of course, the wind is one of the components that we look at.
01:31The Saffir-Simpson scale, which is used by the National Hurricane Center and most other
01:35meteorologists only considers wind.
01:38We look at wind impacts, storm surge, flooding rainfall impacts and also total damage and
01:42economic loss.
01:44And when you're looking at these types of impacts, widespread power outages, damage
01:48to many structures, severe coastal inundation, that's a four on the scale.
01:52The second highest level, this can become a five on our scale if the 15 to 20 foot storm
01:59surge is realized in the Tampa Bay.
02:02That will be a very destructive and historic event there.
02:06And the other concern we have, John, is there's the center of circulation here.
02:10We've been tracking this all morning.
02:11There's that east northeast movement.
02:13So that's why Hurricane Milton now has committed itself.
02:16It will be making landfall along the west coast of Florida.
02:20But here's the other concern for the five, John.
02:24Look at the winds that we are projecting along heavily populated areas in the central Florida
02:31Peninsula.
02:32That's a very important point.
02:33Look at the core of this destructive wind of 100 to 120 mile per hour wind gusts coming
02:38right up through the Tampa metro area toward Orlando.
02:42Many people live in these areas and inland where storm surge is not going to be a risk
02:48because you're sufficiently away from water.
02:51The wind and the flooding will be major concerns.
02:54And we're expecting widespread and long lasting power outages.
02:58We're talking about days to many weeks in some of the hardest hit areas here.
03:03So that's why we want people inland Orlando and surrounding areas, for example, to be
03:08prepared, have enough food, water and other supplies in case you can't get around and
03:13you lose power for an extended period of time.
03:15And John, let's take a look at the power outage.
03:18There it is.
03:19Let's follow it up with this map here.
03:21And this is going over the population centers.
03:24Let's take this full so we can see it and explain, John.
03:28Right.
03:29What you see on the graphic here is the areas that are orange or red.
03:32This is a population density.
03:34So those orange or red areas is where the where the most people live.
03:39And that's why we're particularly concerned about that I-4 corridor that goes from Tampa
03:42to Orlando to Daytona Beach.
03:45Look at all the oranges and reds there.
03:46Many people live in that corridor.
03:48And then, of course, south of Tampa, down toward Bradenton and Sarasota, where we're
03:53talking about all these significant impacts and Bernie about the wind for just a minute.
03:57I want to mention when we're in the heart of the storm in the Orlando area, you're going
04:02to need to treat this as you would a tornado.
04:05You're going to want to be in an interior part of your home away from windows.
04:10We're concerned there can be a lot of trees falling.
04:12So if you have trees that surround your house, you want to be away from where those trees
04:16might fall if you can do that, because that's going to be a key way to stay safer during
04:21this storm.
04:22All right.
04:23Well, let's talk about the storm track here, John.
04:26Listen, this is the benchmark storm for the Tampa Bay area.
04:30It's the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane that made landfall just north of Tampa toward Tarpon
04:36Springs.
04:37Yes, that storm, though, came out of northwest Caribbean Sea.
04:41Look at that.
04:42Not not the Gulf of Mexico like this storm, but it also took a hard right turn right near
04:46Tampa Bay that brought 10 feet or more of storm surge into Tampa Bay.
04:51Of course, it's all the way back in 1921.
04:53The area was much less developed.
04:55There were far fewer people living in that area than the significant growth that's occurred
04:59in that area in recent decades.
05:01So that turn to the right is an unusual one.
05:04And what it's going to do, Bernie, is push all that water when these storms are as intense
05:07as Milton has been.
05:09It's going to push all that water toward the west coast of Florida into all these bays
05:13and inlets.
05:14That's why we're so concerned about the life threatening storm surge, a damaging storm
05:18surge of three to six feet also from the Space Coast up toward southeastern Georgia.
05:22That's going to cause problems, John, quickly, about 15 seconds.
05:25Let's talk about the west coast of Florida.
05:27Here's the biggest area with the storm surge risk 15 to 20 feet in Tampa Bay and just south
05:33toward Bradenton and Sarasota toward Venice, an AccuWeather local storm max of 23 feet.