In this special broadcast marking the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, geopolitical strategist Joseph Rozen, former Director of APAC and Euro-Asia at the National Security Council, joins us to discuss how the event has reshaped Israel’s national security, impacted global geopolitics, and what the future holds for peace in the Middle East. Rozen offers expert insights into Israel’s evolving defense strategy, the role of global powers, and the potential for renewed diplomatic efforts amid ongoing conflict.
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00:00Hello and welcome to this special broadcast marking the one year anniversary of Gaza attack
00:04on Israel. The event needs no introduction as they have left a lasting impact and since
00:11then many things have changed and changed for good. Today we are joined by Joseph Rozan,
00:16a geopolitical strategist and former director of APAC and Euro Asia at the National Security
00:22Council NSC. He's an expert in national security and international relation and will help us
00:27understand how things have evolved since that pivotal moment. Welcome Joseph, how are
00:33you? Great, happy to be here. Thank you for inviting me. Perfect. So let's begin. My first
00:39question to you Joseph is, like it's been one year exactly, it's October 7th today,
00:44the attack on Israel. So tell me something, how was the event shaped Israel long term
00:50national security strategy, particularly in terms of, you know, defence posture and counter
00:55terrorism efforts? Well, I think if I refer to the national security of Israel, I would
01:03say that it's not only a matter of security, military power and diplomatic posture, but
01:14also the economic strength and also the unity within the Israeli society. And I think during
01:25the year that passed since the 7th of October, at least in my eyes, there is more sense of unity
01:37within the Israeli society. In the recent months, we already took the initiative, especially in the
01:48context of fighting Hezbollah in the Northern Arena. And basically in the Southern Arena, in the
01:56fight against the terror organisation Hamas, we pretty much destroyed much of the military
02:06capabilities of Hamas. Although there are some incidents or occasionally rockets fired at Israel
02:20from Hamas, for example, today, in order for Hamas to mark the 7th of October, they fired several
02:29missiles from Khan Yunis area in South Gaza. And I think, like, sorry, I'll get back to the 7th of
02:44October. When the war started by the barbaric attacks of Hamas, Israel was caught by surprise, the
02:54strategic surprise. The main failure was the failure of intelligence, of translating the data, the
03:05intelligence we had into action items and recommendations for the decision makers. And the IDF,
03:14it took some time for the IDF to respond to those barbaric attacks. And once the IDF cleared the
03:25terrorists from within Israel, and began its ground military operation in Gaza, first of all, from the
03:37north and then continuing to the centre neighbourhoods and followed by operation in the south, there was a
03:48sense, at least in my eyes, that the IDF was never 100% or using its 100% power in order to destroy Hamas.
04:05And objectively, it had several limitations. First of all, the limitation of the international pressure on
04:15Israel for securing the humanitarian condition in Gaza and providing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians
04:29living in Gaza under Hamas. That was one pressure. The other concern was our own concern to harm the
04:40hostages. And there are still 101 hostages in the hands of Hamas in Gaza.
04:48No, I was asking, like, the hostages are there as of now, like, when we are talking this, they're still
04:54hostages, right?
04:56Yeah, yeah. There are still 101 hostages. And that was also some concern for the IDF, in order to limit its
05:12own power and not engage in similar bombings that we witnessed in the recent weeks in Lebanon.
05:27And another, so these two main concerns, the international pressure and the concern over the lives of the
05:38hostages in Gaza, Israeli hostages in Gaza, put some limitations on the exercise of power of military power in
05:51Gaza. On the other hand, the Israeli government was never fully engaged, at least to some scholars and media
06:03outlets, especially in Israel, was never fully engaged with the negotiations over a deal to release the hostages for a
06:16heavy price of releasing all the prisoners of Hamas and ceasing the war.
06:24The bottom line is, like, the aspect of negotiations over a deal was mainly a mind game by Hamas, trying to manipulate
06:43Israel for concessions. But according to some evidence and witnesses, they were never really had the intention to sign a deal
06:59with Israel to release the hostages. And as we already know, as we learned on the 7th of October, you can't really
07:11negotiate with a terror organization and buy quiet and rely only on deterrence and some assistance of other international players.
07:28So I think regarding the 7th of October and the overall war in Gaza, at least during the year that has passed, I sense a shift
07:46between a surprise, a very quick response to being stuck in the Gaza mud without really defeating Hamas or using the full force
08:09that IDF can use. And the most dramatic shift happened a month ago when Israel changed its entire conception and took the
08:25initiative in attacking Hezbollah and basically doing all or making the right decision regarding Hezbollah or dealing with
08:38Hezbollah that it lacked to make with Hamas since the 7th of October. On the 7th of October, Israel was caught by surprise.
08:52And there was a huge failure of the intelligence apparatus in Israel, mainly in analyzing or transforming the intelligence into
09:07action items and operational decisions that led to somewhat hesitant response from the IDF and the war in Gaza that the where the IDF was
09:26able to achieve some remarkable achievements, almost destroying all the Hamas capabilities, military capabilities, but not really
09:40defeating it. And as we can see, in many areas that the IDF controlled or cleared from terrorists of Hamas, many of them returned
09:53months later to those same areas. And compared to that, I see a dramatic shift in the way that Israel is dealing with Hezbollah in the
10:11north, in Lebanon, because for the first time in this war, in this multi-front war, Israel took the initiative and began with very, very
10:27complicated and remarkable military and special operations to destroy the leadership of Hezbollah. And so far, about a month since Israel began its
10:49operation in the north, Israel hasn't pushed the brakes yet, which is a good sign. And later on, I can elaborate more about the international or global
11:08implications of this shift, because it has a lot of positive implications for Israel and for the region.
11:20Right. Actually, Joseph, my follow up question was this only, you are a geopolitical strategist. So in your view, how is this conflict impacted global
11:32geopolitics? And also to add, what role major powers like United States or Russia or India currently plays in the Middle East dynamics?
11:44Yes. So I think that the 7th of October divided clearly between the superpowers. From the first day, Russia and China presented a very, I don't want to use the term
12:04anti-Israeli, because I believe their main motive is anti-American. But they used the war in Gaza on the 7th of October to poke and, in a way, attack the US and its
12:24interests in the Middle East. And one of the main interests that was already in advanced stages was the possible normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. And the 7th of October, the attacks by
12:51Hamas, just to remind you, a proxy of Iran, stopped that very, very positive development, a development that had the potential to change the political and security architecture in the Middle East, something that would harm the interests of Russia, Iran, and to some extent, also the
13:19Chinese interests. So naturally, I was not surprised by the position that Russia and China took since the 7th of October. And compared to them, I would say maybe the only balanced
13:47position in the global system by India, actually. And India also has many vast interests in the region, mainly connected to the program of IMEC, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, something that the normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia
14:17could be very crucial or critical in realizing this program. And this program would also, to some extent, harm the interests of China and Russia, especially the Chinese interests, because for many, it is seen that IMEC is being seen as an alternative to the Chinese BRI.
14:48So overall, I think there's a sharper division between the between the superpowers. The regional war in the Middle East is not only a local event, it is part of a chain of events, including the war between Russia and Ukraine, which also
15:16draws a lot of resources from the Western superpowers and its partners and like-minded countries. And I think it has also very, very important lessons to the entire Indo-Pacific region.
15:40And during the last year, we've seen many efforts by Biden's administration to invest in building the military, the defense capabilities of its partners in the Indo-Pacific, especially in Japan, Korea and the Philippines, in order to create this deterrence
16:10against China, not to invade Taiwan. Because with considering another scenario of a war, not only in the Middle East, not only in Europe, but also in the Indo-Pacific, that would be a disaster for the U.S.
16:33And the U.S. has no other reliable or effective alternative but to trust its partners, something that it didn't do perfectly in the context of the war in Gaza.
16:59And to some extent, also in the case of Ukraine. I mean, there's much appreciation within the Israeli government and society for the American aid, the defense package and the political and diplomatic backing since the 7th of October.
17:26But similarly to the Ukrainian case, it comes with conditions. For example, some of the weapons delivered to Ukraine are forbidden to be used against some targets, mainly within the territory of Russia.
17:54Same thing with Israel. We've seen a lot of incidents when congressmen and many members of the Democratic Party didn't want to approve another defense package to Israel.
18:16And conditioned it by providing more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in Gaza.
18:24By the way, the same humanitarian aid that Israel provided together with other countries and arrived to Gaza was used by Hamas to earn more money and restore their fighting capabilities during this war.
18:55We talked almost about all the ongoing wars that's going on right now. And you also emphasized on American role in the Russia-Ukraine war or in the China-Taiwan war.
19:08But coming back to Israel and the Hamas war, what is your view going ahead? Do you see any opportunities for renewed peace efforts in the Middle East? Or are we going to witness a more entrenched or a prolonged conflict?
19:27This is the last question that I wanted to ask you. What are your thought process? What is going ahead to happen?
19:38In general, I'm a very optimistic person, although I'm a realist. And I believe that the recent escalation in Lebanon, in the fighting against Hezbollah, it's a first very much needed step in order to secure peace and stability in the Middle East.
20:05And I will explain. I mentioned before that it was the first time probably that Israel took the initiative and caught the enemy by surprise.
20:19The more significant part of it, maybe a psychological aspect of it, is that by taking the initiative, Israel finally restoring its image of not only image, but also proving its capabilities as a power,
20:49as a regional military power, and also an intelligence power, a power that no one in the Middle East, but also countries beyond the Middle East, cannot ignore.
21:03So it's a very important signal to the enemies of Israel not to test Israel again. It's a very important signal to all the Middle Countries that are trying to stay neutral.
21:23And a signal to basically encourage them to engage with Israel, because when they see a country that finally is winning the war and is responsible for some of the most remarkable special military operations ever,
21:49that is something that other countries want to be part of.
21:54And third, it is also a very significant signal to the allies, especially to the U.S., to say to our American friends, you see, we are able to initiate something.
22:18We have the capability to defeat our enemies.
22:23And in my view, that strengthens the trust between allies, between Israel and the U.S., which is very important in allowing or enabling the freedom of operation for Israel in those areas in which the U.S. doesn't want to be.
22:53The U.S. doesn't want to be active or doesn't want to be responsible for any Israeli actions, because as a superpower, the U.S. has its own interests.
23:06But by showing our power and strength, projecting this power, we can also secure a bigger range of freedom of operation and bigger trust between us and the U.S.
23:33And it is very important to have this trust if we want to continue with this kind of initiatives and win the war.
23:44Absolutely. Thank you so very much, Joseph, for connecting with us.
23:48We have a really short time right now, but it was great knowing your insights on the matter.
23:55And as you said, we are also very optimistic that, you know, the war will come to an end and we will have peace very soon in the Middle East region.
24:08And once again, thank you for connecting with us on One India and thank you for sharing your insights.
24:14And thank you for inviting me.
24:17And thanks India for its support.
24:21Thank you. Take care.
24:22Goodbye.
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