A shift in Milton's path of just 20 or 30 miles could significantly affect the storm's impact on Tampa, but some part of west Florida will face catastrophic levels of storm surge on Oct. 9.
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00:00Category 5, one of the three fastest-strengthening, most rapidly-intensifying hurricanes to reach Category 5 intensity from A1 as the starting point in the Atlantic Basin history.
00:11One of the three strongest, so one of the three fastest to accelerate an increase in intensity.
00:17We want to talk about what's going on with this storm.
00:19And, well, to help us break down some of the details, we're joined now by AccuWeather hurricane expert and Senior Director of Forecast Operations, Dan DePodman.
00:27Dan, thank you for making time for us.
00:29This storm has a pinhole eye, and that is kind of a sign of the health of this storm.
00:34It's a tenacious one right now.
00:36Yeah, it is, Jeff.
00:37And the hurricane has been flying through here this evening, and they found in the last pass just shortly, a short time ago, a four-mile diameter eye.
00:45And that's one of the smallest on record, the smallest being Wilma from 2005, a 2.3 nautical mile eye in Wilma.
00:52So, again, one of the strongest hurricanes you'll ever see here in Milton as it churns near the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.
00:58And when we look at what the nighttime might bring, we're going to be kind of scraping the north side of the Yucatan Peninsula.
01:05And there may be, it seems that the eyes, when you have a very intact hurricane, at some point, we use the phrase eyewall replacement cycle,
01:15because these storms do change character, but also the nature of the storm begins to change after going through that process.
01:20So what's that all about?
01:21Well, we have the same eye tomorrow, and how might the format of the storm change?
01:25Yeah, it's hard for a hurricane to maintain this compact of structure with this tight of a circulation for a long period of time.
01:30Usually, you see this for maybe 12 to 24 hours.
01:33And it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle.
01:34We're starting to see signs of that here.
01:36I'm taking a look at some of the radar from Mexico this evening, and we'll see it on satellite here probably in the next couple of hours,
01:41where usually the eyewall sort of replaces itself, and that usually broadens the wind field, and you get a new eyewall that starts to set up here.
01:48So the concern in those situations is that the wind field usually expands, and that can even make it a more dangerous storm
01:54because that expansive wind field can generate more storm surge as Milton approaches the coast.
01:59And we want to talk about that, and especially just if we looked at where this storm has been earlier today.
02:04It's been in an area where a lot of the history of hurricanes are actually crossing the Yucatan and moving west
02:10and then curving north into Louisiana.
02:12In this case, it's moving generally the opposite direction,
02:15so there's a very short list of storms that have actually moved in this trajectory.
02:19Yeah, that's an important note about Milton, is that we don't have a lot of recent precedent for what the track of Milton is,
02:26meaning that if you live along the west coast of Florida, there hasn't been a storm that has taken this trajectory at this strength really in your lifetime.
02:32The storm of note that is really the storm of record in Tampa is the 1921 hurricane.
02:38There's other storms that have obviously impacted the Tampa Bay region.
02:40Many of them have come from the south and gone up to the west, bringing a storm surge and some gusty winds.
02:45The track, though, across the Gulf of Mexico from west to east is very unusual and is also very dangerous
02:50because this long area of water that's going to cross over can really help to generate increased storm surge.
02:56And one of these was from 1859, and just so much has changed.
03:00Heck, just with the advent of air conditioning a half century after that,
03:04that's what drove people from the northeast and from the Great Lakes to move down to Tampa.
03:08Lovely place to be, very dangerous with this particular setup.
03:11Absolutely, and that's why we are very concerned here.
03:13Even though you see a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale now and a 3 at landfall,
03:18don't have that let your guard down because of the fact that even a category 3 hurricane,
03:22a major hurricane with winds above 111 mph or greater is still a very significant one,
03:28and the impacts are going to be widespread and life-threatening in terms of storm surge.
03:34We'll put this in motion here as Milton approaches later Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday,
03:38a storm surge from Tampa on south.
03:40That could be on the order of 10 feet in some places, including those that were impacted by the Ian storm surge two years ago.
03:46By Wednesday evening when Milton is expected to make landfall around midnight into Thursday morning,
03:51the worst storm surge up near Tampa Bay, that could be a historic, devastating storm surge.
03:56We're very concerned about that, and just a jog a few miles in either direction can really make the difference.
04:01And there will be a surge on the back side of this, too, on the south side of the west coast of Florida
04:05here down by Fort Myers and Naples as Milton goes by us to the east and the winds turn around to the northwest.
04:11So the best-case scenario for Tampa would be for the storm to come in a little farther south,
04:16but there will still be impacts there, and if that happens, it's just going to displace the greatest impacts farther south.
04:22So, Dan, you know, some storms are easier to talk about and communicate about than others.
04:27This is a tough communication challenge for Tampa, given the uncertainty of just a 20-mile difference in the point of landfall.
04:34It sure is.
04:35This impact here of a 15- to 20-foot storm surge, we're pretty confident exactly where that's going to be
04:41is going to really determine, or the exact track of Milton will really determine where that exact placement is going to be.
04:47Right now with that landfall expected right near Tampa Bay, that storm surge will be brought right directly into the bay,
04:52and that would be significant.
04:54Life-threatening could be catastrophic storm surge in some places,
04:56but a 20-mile shift to the south would spare Tampa Bay of most of the impacts,
05:01but shift it down towards Venice and Sarasota and Bradenton.
05:04Again, those places have not experienced much in the way of historic hurricanes lately either.
05:09A shift farther north would also be concerning for Tampa Bay.
05:12So we still have a day or so to be looking at this, but if you live in these areas,
05:16please pay attention to local officials and take their advice when it comes to evacuations.
05:21And there is no scenario through which the entire Florida Gulf Coast is spared.
05:25Somebody's going to face a double-digit storm surge for sure.
05:29It's going to be highly destructive somewhere within 50 or 60 miles of Tampa.
05:33Absolutely. The west coast is our significant concern here as we look at Milton this evening.
05:38But also if you live farther south down towards Naples and then even along the east coast of Florida up towards Jacksonville,
05:43because of the continuous winds from the east here, we do expect a couple to several feet of storm surge
05:48that can cause at least minor coastal inundation along the east coast of the peninsula.
05:52Absolutely. Well, Dan, we appreciate all your insight.
05:55There's one final closing word you could say for anybody listening.
05:58They're in Tampa. They're on the fence. Should I evacuate or not?
06:01I'm at 15 feet elevation. What would that be?
06:04To me, if you have the choice to evacuate in Tampa, please evacuate.
06:07I mean, I think this is the time to do it here.
06:10And in general, it's better to be safe now when you can make that decision versus waiting
06:14when the decision will be taken out of your hands and you won't be able to do so.
06:17And Wednesday is not an option. A lot of people are taking a long time to get out here.
06:22Traffic is way backed up, so tomorrow is going to be a mess for travel, but earliest is best.
06:27Dan DePodwin, senior director of forecast operations and hurricane meteorologist.
06:30Thanks for your insight there, Dan.
06:32Yeah, you're welcome, Jeff.